Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

RightTurnClyde · 26-04-2016 01:44PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Well if quotas in any form come back they have to be implemented in places like New Zealand ,oz America as well.if not all it'll do is put European farmers at a huge disadvantage once again and give them back the huge open goal they e been using to expand at our loss for over 30 years

I'm not arguing for quotas, but busting ourselves to produce milk for the 12c/l market is only ****e. IMO if the NZ want that market off they go, looks like it's turning into a roaring success at the moment.

The US is a horse of a different color altogether, they're consuming the vast majority of they're produce domestically at high value, and dumping the excess onto the markets, at any price. It would be impossible to try and base the majority of our business on the crumbs from their table.
Okay, so I looked up some of the European stats. In 2014 the EU exported 11% of what it produced. Russia took 1.4% of all the EUs production or 13% of what was exported.
If we look at the EU as a whole and stop thinking about quotas just in Ireland, the smallest reduction in production would dramatically increase the percentage of what's produced going to high value products and dramatically decrease low value exports.
I don't see the issue with buying into a license type quota, where it could be bought or sold depending on market conditions and it increases the net worth of your business and most importantly it'll stop the inevitable yo-going that's going to happen to milk price and dairy herds.
Go back to pre quota times, back into the noughties Remember the graphs where average milk price in the Eu is X, the price in NZ would always be 4,5,6 cent less. That NZ price is where we are now pitching our tent. I liked it much more when we were where the US are now, 4 or 5 cent ahead of the shiite.
Let's face the facts, like it or not, we're not going to make our fortune producing milk for the Nigerians and the Chinese. The only body near us capable of paying decent prices for food is the EU. Make it a little harder to increase production and a little easier to get out, and prices would rise dramatically.

By the way, I want to and hope I'll be able to, milk more cows, and if "quota" means I'll get paid a fair price, I'll happily buy it and milk more cows.

So there I've said it "My name is Clyde and I'm a quotaaholic"

Dawggone · 26-04-2016 07:59PM

freedominacup wrote: »

What's droves dawg? On average over the lifetime of quotas around 10 farmers per day stopped producing milk here. Dairy farmer numbers may have risen slightly in the past twelve months though. Where would we be if we'd had no quota? Double current numbers???

My Coop are losing between 11 and 15 per week...
I'll be pis*ed if quota comes back and will probably get out of dairy.

I've said it on here a multitude of times...one bad year of poor prices in 31yrs does NOT equal a catastrophe. If this low commodity price cycle lasts for another 5yrs things will be a lot different down on the dairy farm.

freedominacup · 26-04-2016 08:19PM

Dawggone wrote: »

My Coop are losing between 11 and 15 per week...
I'll be pis*ed if quota comes back and will probably get out of dairy.

I've said it on here a multitude of times...one bad year of poor prices in 31yrs does NOT equal a catastrophe. If this low commodity price cycle lasts for another 5yrs things will be a lot different down on the dairy farm.

So less than we were losing on a per capita basis? Hardly that big a crisis.

Dawggone · 26-04-2016 08:27PM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

I'm not arguing for quotas, but busting ourselves to produce milk for the 12c/l market is only ****e. IMO if the NZ want that market off they go, looks like it's turning into a roaring success at the moment.
The US is a horse of a different color altogether, they're consuming the vast majority of they're produce domestically at high value, and dumping the excess onto the markets, at any price. It would be impossible to try and base the majority of our business on the crumbs from their table.
Okay, so I looked up some of the European stats. In 2014 the EU exported 11% of what it produced. Russia took 1.4% of all the EUs production or 13% of what was exported.
If we look at the EU as a whole and stop thinking about quotas just in Ireland, the smallest reduction in production would dramatically increase the percentage of what's produced going to high value products and dramatically decrease low value exports.
I don't see the issue with buying into a license type quota, where it could be bought or sold depending on market conditions and it increases the net worth of your business and most importantly it'll stop the inevitable yo-going that's going to happen to milk price and dairy herds.
Go back to pre quota times, back into the noughties Remember the graphs where average milk price in the Eu is X, the price in NZ would always be 4,5,6 cent less. That NZ price is where we are now pitching our tent. I liked it much more when we were where the US are now, 4 or 5 cent ahead of the shiite.
Let's face the facts, like it or not, we're not going to make our fortune producing milk for the Nigerians and the Chinese. The only body near us capable of paying decent prices for food is the EU. Make it a little harder to increase production and a little easier to get out, and prices would rise dramatically.

By the way, I want to and hope I'll be able to, milk more cows, and if "quota" means I'll get paid a fair price, I'll happily buy it and milk more cows.

So there I've said it "My name is Clyde and I'm a quotaaholic"

Clyde has finally lost it!

:)

I think that it's way too late to return to quotas now. Farmers and Coops have bought into and invested heavily into a burst commodity bubble. Doubling/trebling/quadrupling production without giving any thought on who is going to consume (at a good price!) this extra product. Whatever happened to winning market share by producing products that people actually want?
Dairy farmers bought into a bubble that was willingly sold to them by Gov/Coops and now we see the results. I'm rehashing the same old shyte that I was saying here 3yrs ago...
Personally, I think that the sooner that milk hits 12cpl the better. It'll sort out the men from the boys.

Ps. There was a time I was on your side re quotas Clyde, now I'm thinking let the shyte hit the fan. One gets sick of being shouted down.

Kowtows post above has some merit. Someone thinking outside the box...not thinking about how many more litres can be rammed through Belview.

Dawggone · 26-04-2016 08:30PM

freedominacup wrote: »

So less than we were losing on a per capita basis? Hardly that big a crisis.

One Coop? Not a whole country!

Free there was also a good incentive to get out way back then. Quota. 'Twas nice to realise a fictitious asset... Believe me I know!

Edit. I'm not having a go. I DON'T want quotas back. I want a race to the bottom. I want survival of the fittest.
Years ago on here I was ridiculed when I was saying that dairy wasn't well positioned for the real world. I questioned the Irish approach. That's all.

freedominacup · 26-04-2016 08:38PM

Dawggone wrote: »

One Coop? Not a whole country!

Free there was also a good incentive to get out way back then. Quota. 'Twas nice to realise a fictitious asset... Believe me I know!

Yeah I forgot that. Still though when I came home in the early nineties there were 40k plus in dairying now down to 17k so still losing 20 per week in that period and unless I'm mistaken there was no buy out in the meantime. Well apart from Muppets like me paying 35-40p/gallon in leases plus land rent in the late nineties. That wasn't a bad payout either I suppose.

Dawggone · 26-04-2016 08:48PM

freedominacup wrote: »

Yeah I forgot that. Still though when I came home in the early nineties there were 40k plus in dairying now down to 17k so still losing 20 per week in that period and unless I'm mistaken there was no buy out in the meantime. Well apart from Muppets like me paying 35-40p/gallon in leases plus land rent in the late nineties. That wasn't a bad payout either I suppose.

How many 100/150 acre full time tillage farms in your parish Free? Supporting a family on 100ac of tillage isn't possible producing commodity grains...niche grains, it's possible.

Quota was an excellent pension for retiring farmers paid by you and I.

freedominacup · 26-04-2016 09:12PM

Dawggone wrote: »

How many 100/150 acre full time tillage farms in your parish Free? Supporting a family on 100ac of tillage isn't possible producing commodity grains...niche grains, it's possible.

Quota was an excellent pension for retiring farmers paid by you and I.

I don't think there was ever any that size tbh. The only tillage farmer in the area is covering around 600-700 incl various share cropping/full contract jobs. There's a couple covering that acreage but in one case all for home use and in the other half for home use and the balance to flahavans.

Dawggone · 26-04-2016 09:47PM

freedominacup wrote: »

I don't think there was ever any that size tbh. The only tillage farmer in the area is covering around 600-700 incl various share cropping/full contract jobs. There's a couple covering that acreage but in one case all for home use and in the other half for home use and the balance to flahavans.

You're not around long enough.

I remember when the tillage farms were on the best land and dairy was on the shyte land. Good living to be made off 100/150 acre tillage farm. Now need a minimum of a1000ac. Any idea how many cows you could stick on 1000ac?
We are now all (tillage, beef, dairy) on that same road.

freedominacup · 26-04-2016 10:11PM

Dawggone wrote: »

You're not around long enough.
I remember when the tillage farms were on the best land and dairy was on the shyte land. Good living to be made off 100/150 acre tillage farm. Now need a minimum of a1000ac. Any idea how many cows you could stick on 1000ac?
We are now all (tillage, beef, dairy) on that same road.

I've no pension book no doubt but in this area it was more like a switch was flipped. At one point everyone has a few acres next thing it was all specialists covering a lot of acres.

Dawggone · 26-04-2016 10:14PM

freedominacup wrote: »

I've no pension book no doubt but in this area it was more like a switch was flipped. At one point everyone has a few extra next thing it was all specialists covering a lot of acres.

Nail. On. The. Head.

Dairy has followed that now.

kevthegaff · 26-04-2016 11:03PM

At least cow/land pricex may drop in the near future:-)

kowtow · 26-04-2016 11:14PM

Any idea when the switch was flipped or what the catalyst was?

I wonder if it's incomes and prices outside farming which actually define the minimum size of a 'full time' mainstream farm?

The problem is that at some point the farming mentality switched from producing food to producing money, without too much thought for the mechanism which turns one into the other.

Edit.. we talk about lot about how farmers must realise they are running a business, but it strikes me that given a blank canvas very few businessmen would create the type of farms which we have today. They wouldn't accept the risk of separation from the customer.

Timmaay · 27-04-2016 12:08AM

Talking about 100odd acres previously being able to put food on the table and provide you with a comfortable living, in dairying over the last 10years I'd hazard a guess the average profit (or drawings or whatever you want to call it) was in around 10c/l, so 350kl of milk sales alongside the culls/calves and any few beef sales would nett ya a tidy income, personal I think it will be a decent while before we see milk anything comfortably over 30c/l, and I'd be revising that 10c/l down till about 5c/l. For our 110acres here we knocked out around 400kl of milk the last few quota years, putting a figure of 5c/l profit it would mean needing to double the milk output here to roughly 800kl, that would mean roughly 125 cow's doing 6200l delivered, very doable on the farm here thankfully. However the big question is will 5c/l be achievable? How much repair and maintenance investment will be needed on the farm, likes of 2c/l? I'd need to look at the likes of contract rearing heifers or a flying herd if I'm to try go to 125 cows here also, as well as about 30k in capital for slurry and winter accommodation. I'm looking at all this in the context of my dad's option that I'm at the limit here already, wit 90cows, followers, and buying in abit if maize etc. And if the milk price stays down the low 20s I can quickly wave that 5/l average away, and have little more than a 50k hole in my pocket between investment etc, and probably a decent few more hours worked a week

Dawggone · 27-04-2016 05:37AM

kowtow wrote: »

Any idea when the switch was flipped or what the catalyst was?

I wonder if it's incomes and prices outside farming which actually define the minimum size of a 'full time' mainstream farm?

The problem is that at some point the farming mentality switched from producing food to producing money, without too much thought for the mechanism which turns one into the other.

Edit.. we talk about lot about how farmers must realise they are running a business, but it strikes me that given a blank canvas very few businessmen would create the type of farms which we have today. They wouldn't accept the risk of separation from the customer.

The switch was flipped as a result of oversupply in the '70s.
Anyone remember the milk lakes, butter mountains and even the wine lakes?
That was a result of oversupply that was hoarded into intervention.
Now, even the wine producers of the Languedoc have copped on that you need a market for product resulting in some decent wines today...

Dairy got quotas.
This time around there will be no soft landing, hopefully.
A good few years of commodities on the floor will sort things out, like tillage farmers did in the '80s.
Tillage got specialised and consolidated.
That's when the 100ac tillage farmer morphed into the 1000ac farmer.

Farmers have for decades produced food and expected the Coops to find markets for their produce. I know Kowtow that you think that's a lazy model, but it's what it is....

IMHO the future in dairy is either get big...or produce, at farm level, a product that the J.Soap family will actually buy and consume. I would gladly invest into someone with the know how as I'm clean out of ideas, and indeed the drive, to manufacture and market a saleable product from my few litres. So until that savant rocks up to the farm, I'll keep sending my milk to the Coop and b*tch and moan about prices!

rangler1 · 27-04-2016 07:49AM

Dawggone wrote: »

The switch was flipped as a result of oversupply in the '70s.
Anyone remember the milk lakes, butter mountains and even the wine lakes?
That was a result of oversupply that was hoarded into intervention.
Now, even the wine producers of the Languedoc have copped on that you need a market for product resulting in some decent wines today...

Dairy got quotas.
This time around there will be no soft landing, hopefully.
A good few years of commodities on the floor will sort things out, like tillage farmers did in the '80s.
Tillage got specialised and consolidated.
That's when the 100ac tillage farmer morphed into the 1000ac farmer.

Farmers have for decades produced food and expected the Coops to find markets for their produce. I know Kowtow that you think that's a lazy model, but it's what it is....

IMHO the future in dairy is either get big...or produce, at farm level, a product that the J.Soap family will actually buy and consume. I would gladly invest into someone with the know how as I'm clean out of ideas, and indeed the drive, to manufacture and market a saleable product from my few litres. So until that savant rocks up to the farm, I'll keep sending my milk to the Coop and b*tch and moan about prices!

You can't really claim it's not a soft landing with so much going intervention, and what that's taking out of the agri budget......it actually would be financially more sustainable to incinerate that stuff and maybe cheaper.
What century do you see that stuff finally being sold and the place awash with milk

freedominacup · 27-04-2016 11:57AM

jaymla627 wrote: »

Cows hit 33 litres here this morning 3.75bf 3.5pr, 534 kgs sent on co-op report last year 45% heifers, should hit 580kgs this year of 1.3-1.5 ton of meal.....
If I was only feeding 300-500 kgs a cow I'd probably pinch cows for feed alright but with 4-8kg going into cows nearly all year have no issues that way

29.5l @3.79bf & 3.62pr this morning. 45% heifers. New tank full. Have to set up the old one near dairy for Fri. 10 still to calve so they'll put a nice drop in the old one even if the cows currently milking have peaked. 5kg of a 9% pr meal going in with a little over one kg dm of 2014 first cut to carry it. Grass still tight. They'd be a bit higher but for the fact they were pushed to clean out a break yesterday. Hope to hit 550 this year up from 500 last year.

Dawggone · 27-04-2016 12:19PM

rangler1 wrote: »

You can't really claim it's not a soft landing with so much going intervention, and what that's taking out of the agri budget......it actually would be financially more sustainable to incinerate that stuff and maybe cheaper.
What century do you see that stuff finally being sold and the place awash with milk

I said that quota was the soft landing of the '80s Rangler. At this stage I think it would be better for the whole industry if commodity milk hit 12/14cpl for five or more years and let the chips fall where they may...other farming sectors had to endure exactly that 30yrs ago and those remaining are the better for it.

Dawggone · 27-04-2016 07:38PM

Dawggone wrote: »

I said that quota was the soft landing of the '80s Rangler. At this stage I think it would be better for the whole industry if commodity milk hit 12/14cpl for five or more years and let the chips fall where they may...other farming sectors had to endure exactly that 30yrs ago and those remaining are the better for it.

I'm sticking by that post.

For quite a while I've been on this forum championing the dairy family farm. True?
Well, just over one year after the 'quota abolition parties' the perspective has changed...
I'm not a begrudger, but I'm around a lot longer than most on here, and I've seen this before. The lack of balance on this forum is probably due to the fact that the old folk don't do tech/social media and you guys see me as contrarian because I gently tried to tease out some balance in a Socratic dialectic kinda way...

Maybe Kowtow could enlighten everyone about commodity cycles and their average duration...

kowtow · 27-04-2016 07:43PM

Dawggone wrote:

Maybe Kowtow could enlighten everyone about commodity cycles and their average duration...

Its not so much commodity cycles of 3 or 5 years which would bother me .. rather supercycles of 20 years +

Dawggone · 27-04-2016 07:54PM

kowtow wrote: »

Its not so much commodity cycles of 3 or 5 years which would bother me .. rather supercycles of 20 years +

+1000 Kowtow.
'80s and '90s were lost...I've the t-shirt.

Kindly explain to those on this thread what can, and does, happen in cycles like that.

mf240 · 27-04-2016 07:56PM

Nothing cures low prices better than low prices .

In two or three years time milk will be dear.

whelan2 · 27-04-2016 07:58PM

mf240 wrote: »

Nothing cures low prices better than low prices .

In two or three years time milk will be dear.

I hope you're right

mf240 · 27-04-2016 08:00PM

whelan2 wrote: »

I hope you're right

I was wrong once before. It was on a Tuesday I think ..

whelan2 · 27-04-2016 08:01PM

mf240 wrote: »

I was wrong once before. It was on a Tuesday I think ..

This is Wednesday so you should be fine

freedominacup · 27-04-2016 08:17PM

Dawggone wrote: »

'80s and '90s were lost...I've the t-shirt.

.

It's your own business entirely how much drugs you did twenty or thirty years ago. The t-shirt is probably tie-died.

kevthegaff · 27-04-2016 08:24PM

Think the difference with tillage and dairy is milking is WAY more work! Also tillage men were never constrained by quotas

Dawggone · 27-04-2016 08:26PM

freedominacup wrote: »

It's your own business entirely how much drugs you did twenty or thirty years ago. The t-shirt is probably tie-died.

Cynical Free.

"Confidence is ignorance. If you're feeling cocky it's because of something you don't know" Eoin Colfer. Wexford man.

Dawggone · 27-04-2016 08:34PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

Think the difference with tillage and dairy is milking is WAY more work! Also tillage men were never constrained by quotas

Quotas have become a kind of doppelgänger.
I'm not coming from a tillage farmers pov. I'm just trying to explain from a farming sector that *didn't* have quotas and had to deal with globalised markets without protection (quota) what the reality actually IS!

freedominacup · 27-04-2016 08:41PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Cynical Free.

"Confidence is ignorance. If you're feeling cocky it's because of something you don't know" Eoin Colfer. Wexford man.

Trying to lighten the mood a small bit dawg. Hope for the best and try to prepare for the worst. This adjustment would have been easier to cope with twenty years ago I think. At least input prices would have been lower. For the record I was almost lynched at more than one ifa meeting in the late nineties for campaigning in favour of quotas going as they were originally scheduled to in '99 or 2000. Whatever about the period from '84 until the turn of the century we missed out hugely on the Chinese powered supercycle that even powered through the global recession in '08-'09.

We'd be suffering now either way but I have a suspicion we might have been established in some higher value markets had the shackles been off since '00 and be a lot less exposed to pure commodities as we are now.

Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

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