A Slow Journey to Faster Times

Monday 7th March - Rest

Knackered after 48 hours that involved a day's work, a 6 hour return drive to Ballycotton and a 10 mile race in between. Also a bit sore. I'm loosely following the last six weeks of a P&D plan now, and today was down for a rest day anyway so no harm done. I've had to drop the JD plan as I felt like I was going to get injured.

Tuesday 8th March - 9m GA (with 10x100m Strides
9m @ 9:12p/m average (132bpm avg)

Thought I brought all the gear with me to get this in after work. Hat-check, neck warmer-check, base layer-check, t-shirt-check, Garmin-check, Flip belt-check, running socks-check, running shoes-check, shorts? shorts? shorts? No check, meaning I was forced to do this in a pair of jeans. This is the reason for the slower than average splits. The strides afterwards were particularly uncomfortable.

Wednesday 9th March - 45 minutes Easy
5.18m @ 8:41p/m average (128bpm avg)

Late meeting in work followed by food & beer meant this was always going to be a struggle. I stuck to the n/a stuff until I could drag myself away around 9pm. Happy enough to get it done.

Thursday 10th March

A.M. - 45 minutes Easy
5.47m @ 8:14p/m average (131bpm avg)

Easy run into work. Felt great.

P.M. - 125 minutes Easy
15.08m @ 8:17p/m average (136bpm avg)

This was supposed to be done yesterday, but circumstances made it easier today. Met FBOT01 after a few miles and he kept me company for half the distance. The two hours passed a lot more quickly than if I'd been alone. More than 20 in the bank for the day. Lie in tomorrow

Friday 11th March. - 12m (with 4m @MP)

The plan had today down for 12m (with 7m @LT). In my opinion, that's the hardest session of the whole 12/18 weeks and I didn't feel I'd be able for it, especially after the 20+ miles yesterday. I was feeling quite stiff & sore, but it was a fatigued sore rather than an injured sore and I thought it would be good for me to get something done on tired legs. So, I improvised a little bit with the workout above and came up with the following: 4m easy, 4m (optimistic) MP, 4m easy. A nice little workout, but not tough enough to kill me.

4m Easy: (8:17, 8:07, 8:16, 8:24)

4m MP: (6:39, 6:37, 6:39, 6:38)

4m Easy: (8:12, 7:53, 8:18, 8:15)

Tomorrow will either be a few recovery miles or complete rest, with a long one due on Sunday. I may struggle to fit that in due to work commitments, so it could end up being Monday morning instead. We'll see.

Monday 14th March - 22m Long Run
22m @ 8:32p/m average (144bpm)

Took a rest day on Saturday as I suggested I might, before circumstances prevented me running at all Sunday either. In truth I was just going to run some easy miles anyway and push the long run back to today, so no real harm done. I deliberately picked a route with a lumpy profile this morning, covering the hilly side of the PP (incorporating the Khyber & Acres Road) and a lap of Howth. I took the Howth Road option on the way rather than running along the pancake flat coastline. My legs got very little respite today! Finished the run up around Sutton and jumped on a train home. A good morning's work

Garmin trace here.

It's going to be a manic week for me with Cheltenham on, so I'm hoping to get some easy runs in over the next four days before a decent long one at the weekend. That's the plan anyway.

Small Cheltenham previews to follow for anyone who's interested

Cheltenham 2016

I'll go day by day to make it easier to follow. Wednesday's preview tomorrow.

Day 1

1:30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle

The main Grade 1 trials for this were all won by Willie Mullins horses, yet none of them take their chance here suggesting the trainer believes he's got one better than them all. Min has been impressive in both starts and his form has stood up quite well. He looks the one to beat. Nicky Henderson runs Altior & Buveir D'air. Altior has won at the course and scored in what can be a significant pointer to this race at Kempton over Christmas. However, Mullins had the second that day which gives him a fair line into how good the form is. Buveir D'air has decent bumper form with Altior & Barters Hill and has been quite taking in his hurdle starts to date. Not sure how strong the races he won were though and although he's unexposed, he's also unproven. Not much juice left in his price now either. Bellshill has to bounce back from a terrible run last time and he only runs here because Yorkhill's been re-routed. You'd think the Neptune would have been the race for him at his best. Supasundae is now too short considering he's only won a maiden hurdle, while Silver Concorde is still a maiden and his price is due to his bumper success here two years ago. Tombstone has run well in defeat twice in Grade 1's and may be the one to outrun his price if the better ground brings about some improvement. The rest aren't good enough.

Verdict: Market looks about right. If the bookies try and get Min tomorrow he may get too big and be worth backing, but at the moment it's not a contest I really want to get involved in. Very small each-way play on Tombstone @ 14/1 more due to the fact that he's better than the other horses at that price in my opinion.


Arkle next.......

Cheltenham 2016

Day 1

2:10 Arkle Chase

Douvan is a certainty here. An unsurprising small field of seven take their chance as no one wants to take him on. The English two mile novice chasers are rubbish, so the Irish look likely to have the first three with their only representatives. Sizing John to follow Douvan home with The Game Changer in third.

Verdict: As much as a certainty as I think he is, I won't be backing a novice chaser in a Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 at 2/5. Sizing John w/o is the bet at 9/4.


3m Handicap Chase next.......

Cheltenham 2016

Day 1

3:30 Champion Hurdle

After the defection of the obvious winner Faugheen, this has now become a much more open contest. Annie Power is massively respected as she's a mare with huge ability and receives a 7lb sex allowance. However, she hasn't been targeted at this race and has never run in a top class two mile race before. She only runs because of the previous favourite's non-participation and I'm not a fan of supporting runners who come here as an afterthought. At around 7/4 I'm happy enough to let her win if she's capable. Nichols Canyon is the only horse to ever beat Faugheen and has now amassed six Grade 1's in his career. He was disappointing last time, but may have still been feeling the effects of his titanic battle with Identity Thief over Christmas. Speaking of which, I don't see any reason that horse should reverse the form with him. The New One has proven time and time again that he's not quick enough for this race and should be running in the World Hurdle. My Tent Or Yours would be a huge player on his old form, but it's a long, long time now since his last race and he's now too short in the market to take the chance he's still as good as he was. Last year's juveniles look a poor bunch. Top Notch is probably best of those, but a place is the best he can hope for.

Verdict: If you forgive Nichols Canyon one poor run (when he had a valid excuse), he looks a knocking bet at 6/1. Big winning chance and impossible to see out of the first three for me. Nichols Canyon @ 6/1


Rest of Tuesday's card next.......

Tomorrow's musings:

Cheltenham 2016

Day 2

1:30 Neptune Novice's Hurdle

This looks between the top three in the market. Yanworth is the one I've the most doubts about as all his form is on soft ground and I'm keen to be against him at the current prices. I think the Mullins pair are likely to fill the first two, and although I'm a big fan of Yorkhill I didn't get any of the 5/1 last week when he looked Supreme bound and find it hard to back him now at half that price. Therefore I'll go for the rapidly improving A Toi Phil @ 7/1 as I think he's a solid winning chance with the consolation of a small profit once he places in the first three which seems almost certain. It's a weak field outside of these.

2:10 RSA Chase

More Of That is being priced up as if he's as good as he was over hurdles, but he's yet to prove that over the larger obstacles in my opinion. He's won a few small field novice chases, but hasn't really been tested and definitely has the most questions to answer of the top two in the market. No More Heroes
has always been well thought of by connections and has been hugely impressive in his jumping this season with two Grade 1 wins amongst his three victories. I think he'll win and his owner's second string Roi Des Francs looks likely to place at 10/1.

2:50 Coral Cup

No strong opinion here. I've picked one out I think may be interesting though, the Paul Nicholls trained Baoulet Delaroque (14/1)
He beat a couple of 140+ horses on his last start and although he was receiving weight he did it well and may still be improving. The penalty he received for that may not be enough to stop him following up. Baron Alco
looks a big price at 25/1 too. He's a consistent horse who seems certain to give his running, but may just be in the grip of the handicapper now. May be worth a small play at the price though.

3:30 Champion Chase

Once Un De Sceaux stands up here, he wins. This is a terrible renewal. The others are either past their best or not good enough.

4:10 X-Country Chase

The Enda Bolger/JP McManus combinations will be difficult to beat here, but I think I've spotted a value alternative. Solid handicapper Bless The Wings has run reasonably well on both starts at the course here and won a decent Fairyhouse handicap in between. He looks better than a 20/1 shot in my opinion.

4:50 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

Another hugely competitive Cheltenham handicap. Not massively confident, but I'm going to plump for the Alan King trained Ardamir (16/1). He was a smooth winner last time out and may be underestimated off his current mark of 130.His trainer is a master with the juvenile hurdlers and I'd be surprised if he wasn't there or thereabouts.

5:30 Champion Bumper

This is worse than trying to figure out the handicaps as there's even less form! New To This Town looks best of the Irish having won twice, with both runners up franking the form in recent weeks. The bookies haven't missed that though and he's only around 10/1. I'm going to take a chance on the Jonjo O'Neill trained Compadre who won his only start to date at Bangor. He was a very expensive purchase for connections who are more used to supplying Derby favourites than Bumper also rans. 25/1 seems on the big side for one so unexposed...

Tuesday 15th March (P.M.) - 45 minutes Recovery
5.08m @ 8:51p/m average (120bpm avg)

Hoping the quads will be back to normal tomorrow.

AuldManKing wrote: »

FYP :P

I did ok today. No winners, but small profit from the placed horses.

How's Ardamir going?