What will happen when all the low skill jobs are gone?

Billy86 · 29-02-2016 09:22PM

karma_ wrote: »

It's exactly that premise which is flawed. The basic math just doesn't add up.

Meh, I believe just about anything is possible given enough time and effort. Just because we have not come up with the solution or even scratched the surface does not mean it is not out there, and truth if we were to hear whatever it may be we may all balk at it as absurd. But so would people from centuries ago at the mere concept of an airplane or telephone.

Eugene Norman · 29-02-2016 09:25PM

karma_ wrote: »

I guess space might, you could well be right about something, alas the universe certainly doesn't and no one is even sure if time exists really.

Anyway, you were going to explain how we extract infinite growth out of finite resources? Floor's yours friend.

We become more efficient. You have 3 things to worry about.

1) energy
2) food
3) materials.

1) we are nowhere near even using a tiny fraction of the Suns energy. Also economic growth doesn't necessarily mean energy growth.
2) food just has to keep up with population. It's done that for a century and population growth has started decelerating.
3) we invent new materials all the time. If not we can mine asteroids (an idea that people in a more optimistic age -- the mid to late 20thC -- thought would have happened by now).

Eugene Norman · 29-02-2016 09:26PM

However I think we are doomed for other reasons. Not least this AI stuff.

Iwasfrozen · 29-02-2016 09:26PM

karma_ wrote: »

I realise we got all monty python sometime ago, but even if we took the math to this farcical extreme, the Universe is finite also, the math still doesn't compute. There is going to have to come a time where zero growth is seen as acceptable, I know this is a bitter pill for free-market capitalists to swallow, but swallow they must.

Well we aren't actually sure if the universe is finite or infinite.

OK, I guess I'm willing to concede that once we've exploited all the resources of our infinite/finite universe/multiverse and reached the very pinnacle of possible tecnological development there may be a limit to growth but by that stage honestly who cares?

We'll have killed ourselves long before or someone else will have.

karma_ · 29-02-2016 10:33PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Well we aren't actually sure if the universe is finite or infinite.

OK, I guess I'm willing to concede that once we've exploited all the resources of our infinite/finite universe/multiverse and reached the very pinnacle of possible tecnological development there may be a limit to growth but by that stage honestly who cares?

We'll have killed ourselves long before or someone else will have.

I mean, that's exactly the point though isn't it. If in the long run you concede that, surely for the short to medium term a system that builds to zero growth is something worthwhile.

I know we had to stretch to reach this point, but the thing is we could have a sustainable world, without having to exploit and burnout every resource we touch. Surely that is the sensible and logical approach, rather than sticking rigidly to an ethos of compound growth being absolute.

Capitalism itself has become too transfixed on short term gain, more long term strategy is needed.

Iwasfrozen · 29-02-2016 10:40PM

karma_ wrote: »

I mean, that's exactly the point though isn't it. If in the long run you concede that, surely for the short to medium term a system that builds to zero growth is something worthwhile.

I know we had to stretch to reach this point, but the thing is we could have a sustainable world, without having to exploit and burnout every resource we touch. Surely that is the sensible and logical approach, rather than sticking rigidly to an ethos of compound growth being absolute.

Capitalism itself has become too transfixed on short term gain, more long term strategy is needed.

We're talking about a long long long long long long longy long time before we've reached the stage of exploiting all the resources of the finite/infinite universe/multi verse with the highest possibly achievable level of technology. No need to start limiting ourselves long before we've reached the cap of our growth potential.

karma_ · 29-02-2016 11:03PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

We're talking about a long long long long long long longy long time before we've reached the stage of exploiting all the resources of the finite/infinite universe/multi verse with the highest possibly achievable level of technology. No need to start limiting ourselves long before we've reached the cap of our growth potential.

Bad strategy is bad strategy.

Iwasfrozen · 29-02-2016 11:19PM

karma_ wrote: »

Bad strategy is bad strategy.

Care to explain why?

01-03-2016 07:44AM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Care to explain why?

Consuming endless resources is impossible when the resources within reasonable reach are finite, you will run out before you get there.
Just imagine driving a vehicle across the desert, would you charge along without first checking the fuel gauge?

Being stranded in the middle would be a death sentence!
It's better to not go there, than to get half way and die.
The Planet's resources are finite and we've only got the resources of this planet to use.
The extraterrestrial resources are out of reach and are impossible to realistically harvest.

Iwasfrozen · 01-03-2016 08:43AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Consuming endless resources is impossible when the resources within reasonable reach are finite, you will run out before you get there.
Just imagine driving a vehicle across the desert, would you charge along without first checking the fuel gauge?

Being stranded in the middle would be a death sentence!
It's better to not go there, than to get half way and die.
The Planet's resources are finite and we've only got the resources of this planet to use.
The extraterrestrial resources are out of reach and are impossible to realistically harvest.

For now. Thy ate impossible to harvest for now.

Besides Ireland is a small country there's not much we can do our end. The majority of growth comes from the third world.

01-03-2016 10:17AM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

For now. Thy ate impossible to harvest for now.

Besides Ireland is a small country there's not much we can do our end. The majority of growth comes from the third world.

So back to the previous question, Where do the resources come from as we're already stripped most of them from those third world countries where you expect the growth to come from?

karma_ · 01-03-2016 12:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

So back to the previous question, Where do the resources come from as we're already stripped most of them from those third world countries where you expect the growth to come from?

I read an article recently that stated that should human civilization suffer any kind of catastrophe or major disaster that causes it to decline, there is no longer enough fossil fuels remaining that would then allow for a new industrial revolution.

CiDeRmAn · 01-03-2016 01:49PM

All the low skill jobs?
So that's human moderating here on Boards gone for a start! :pac:

Sleepy · 01-03-2016 03:18PM

What's really worrying about this is the demographics IMO. The low skilled / poorly educated are already having more children than those in the high-skilled professions that are less likely to be affected by automation and the off-shoring of low skilled work. Given that the majority of us tend to follow our parents footsteps, it's these kids we need to worry about. The cycle of intra-generational unemployment (or underemployment) is something we need to focus on in the here and now: improving all levels of education, particularly at early childhood level will require both increased public spending on education and tackling the self-serving teaching unions. Perhaps public provision of parenting classes might be of use (if probably somewhat controversial)?

01-03-2016 10:51PM

The mechanisation of the manufacturing industry isn't a certainty! Some manufacturers have had to retreat in some areas.

There's some hope for the semi-skilled & dexterous people.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/26/mercedes-benz-robots-people-assembly-lines
Bucking modern manufacturing trends, Mercedes-Benz has been forced to trade in some of its assembly line robots for more capable humans.
The robots cannot handle the pace of change and the complexity of the key customisation options available for the company’s S-Class saloon at the 101-year-old Sindelfingen plant, which produces 400, 000 vehicles a year from 1,500 tons of steel a day.
The dizzying number of options for the cars – from heated or cooled cup holders, various wheels, carbon-fibre trims and decals, and even four types of caps for tire valves – demand adaptability and flexibility, two traits where humans currently outperform robots.
Markus Schaefer, Mercedes-Benz’ head of production told Bloomberg: “Robots can’t deal with the degree of individualisation and the many variants that we have today. We’re saving money and safeguarding our future by employing more people.”

JRant · 01-03-2016 11:52PM

Billy86 wrote: »

I am working in a recruitment company at the minute (payroll/admin, not the actual recruiting) and this reminded me two weeks ago when half our staff were a day late getting paid (because our client that they work for was late paying us), our accounting commenting that "our inventory are unhappy".

Thankfully, everyone else lost their sh*t over it :pac: ! Still kind of worrying though seeing that attitude anywhere.

It seems to be happening in a lot of companies these days. I think it stems from the fact that accountants are being given more power in a lot of corporations.

In my own place the board use to be made up of mainly engineers who worked up through the ranks and had an understanding of both the business and people management side. In recent years they've pretty much all been replaced with 'money' men. To the extent that even though the company is turning a healthy profit they are cutting everything to the bare bones and killing moral.

Eugene Norman · 01-03-2016 11:53PM

karma_ wrote: »

I read an article recently that stated that should human civilization suffer any kind of catastrophe or major disaster that causes it to decline, there is no longer enough fossil fuels remaining that would then allow for a new industrial revolution.

Why would a post industrial society care?

It's not true anyway.

Eugene Norman · 02-03-2016 12:02AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So back to the previous question, Where do the resources come from as we're already stripped most of them from those third world countries where you expect the growth to come from?

You've presumed the conclusion there.

There was an article in the guardian about how we consume less today. At least in the uk. Overall consumption of stuff was down by 20% since 2008. The guardian being the guardian didn't understand what was going on, what was actually going on was efficiency of production fewer components in modern fridges compared to older fridges, LED lights compared to fluorescents, lcd screens compared to CRTs, phones replacing games machines, music players, tablets replacing laptops, laptops replacing desktops and monitors, and recycling reducing primary production; combined with digital technology reducing the sale of CDs, books etc.

energy - shale oil, despite the Saudis trying to kill it - will keep oil prices low for decades, wind and solar keep advancing. And new materials are created daily.

kupus · 02-03-2016 12:33AM

JRant wrote: »

It seems to be happening in a lot of companies these days. I think it stems from the fact that accountants are being given more power in a lot of corporations.

In my own place the board use to be made up of mainly engineers who worked up through the ranks and had an understanding of both the business and people management side. In recent years they've pretty much all been replaced with 'money' men. To the extent that even though the company is turning a healthy profit they are cutting everything to the bare bones and killing moral.

Theres worse than that. Companies may have you insured and if you die, they will be reimbursed. Inventory or disposable asset?

eeguy · 02-03-2016 12:52AM

kupus wrote: »

Theres worse than that. Companies may have you insured and if you die, they will be reimbursed. Inventory or disposable asset?

You can also buy Lotto insurance, incase a syndicate of employees win and leave :pac:

Iwasfrozen · 02-03-2016 01:10AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So back to the previous question, Where do the resources come from as we're already stripped most of them from those third world countries where you expect the growth to come from?

We've stripped most resources from the third world? Umm what?

JRant · 02-03-2016 08:24AM

kupus wrote: »

Theres worse than that. Companies may have you insured and if you die, they will be reimbursed. Inventory or disposable asset?

How is that even legal?

karma_ · 02-03-2016 12:42PM

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Why would a post industrial society care?

It's not true anyway.

Well it would make progress to a technological age impossible. If you say it's not true then... phew.

karma_ · 02-03-2016 12:48PM

kupus wrote: »

Theres worse than that. Companies may have you insured and if you die, they will be reimbursed. Inventory or disposable asset?

It's kind of like the whole private prisons scandal, where they essentially have unlimited slave labour, the incentive for these institutions is to keep themselves full of prisoners (employees) and increasing their sentences or preventing early release.

But for life insurance, well, it's then in a shareholders best interest for someone to die, or to have short unhealthy lives. It's downright insidious.

Permabear · 02-03-2016 12:49PM

This post has been deleted.

karma_ · 02-03-2016 12:53PM

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

LOL rebranding the 'dead peasants' moniker I see.

beach_walker · 02-03-2016 01:53PM

karma_ wrote: »

LOL rebranding the 'dead peasants' moniker I see.

Ehh not so sure I'd agree. I've worked with people who've been covered by something like that (haven't got to that level myself yet :pac: ) and believe me, if they were knocked down by a bus the company would have folded. Makes sense to an extent.

Iwasfrozen · 02-03-2016 02:06PM

karma_ wrote: »

It's kind of like the whole private prisons scandal, where they essentially have unlimited slave labour, the incentive for these institutions is to keep themselves full of prisoners (employees) and increasing their sentences or preventing early release.

But for life insurance, well, it's then in a shareholders best interest for someone to die, or to have short unhealthy lives. It's downright insidious.

I see you're traveling into the land of fantasy again comrade.

_Brian · 02-03-2016 02:14PM

eeguy wrote: »

So Enda Kenny came under fire for calling the people of Castlebar whiners when they said there was no recovery in the west of Ireland.
Castlebar has had a series of factory closures since 2008 and the service industry has suffered too as a result.
Up and down Ireland (and the UK), factories in small towns are closing and will never be replaced. Any factories that have opened in recent years are in or around cities and are heavily automated, having only a small core staff to maintain production.
In the next 2 decades automation is going to really take off replacing traditional low skill jobs in manufacturing, transport and retail.

So what happens when thousands are made redundant through automation?
What happens when anyone who drives or does any repetitive task is made unemployable as it's cheaper and more efficient to automate the process?
Is it the end of civilisation as we know it?

The total automation of such tasks will take a generation from now if not more. The technology is in its infancy.
The key is that in 20/30 years that no one is hoping to have a job in such fields. They would be condemning themselves to compete with robots.

karma_ · 02-03-2016 02:20PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I see you're traveling into the land of fantasy again comrade.

In what way? Sure I made a leap with the insurance, but the prison scandals are a dime a dozen.

What will happen when all the low skill jobs are gone?

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