Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kowtow · 16-02-2016 01:31PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

The auld cookie jar must be getting small now ,gdt again expecting another drop this week with wmp expected to be back 10%.

Have a feeling in my bones that the GDT fall may have been overshot by the futures for the time being and might be a bit less painful than expected, but I could be very very wrong.

We'll see in an hour or two I expect.

atlantic mist · 16-02-2016 02:20PM

rolled barely 170 a tonne, 150 not rolled

if we are in an oversupply situation world wide where does the wasted product go/end up??

eu never lost money on intervention stock, world consumer retail prices havent dropped in line with commodities funny old world

frazzledhome · 16-02-2016 02:21PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Seems to me that the co op crying the most about having to raid the cookie jar doesn't even have a cookie jar. The only reason they didn't fall far behind the others before now, was the fear of losing more suppliers. The co ops with a poor product mix and large borrowings look set to be exposed badly this year. Just hope the stronger Co ops won't be tempted to drop the price in solidarity with them. This thing about having to support milk price is nothing more than an admission that they have no market for their product mix.

Only place I hear mention of support is here ??

keep going · 16-02-2016 02:34PM

kowtow wrote: »

Have a feeling in my bones that the GDT fall may have been overshot by the futures for the time being and might be a bit less painful than expected, but I could be very very wrong.

We'll see in an hour or two I expect.

Just so your not lonely , I think you might be right but its a case of bumping along the bottom for a while

kowtow · 16-02-2016 03:29PM

keep going wrote:

Just so your not lonely , I think you might be right but its a case of bumping along the bottom for a while

I'm sure you could be right.

Predicting cash prices over time frames longer than about 5 seconds makes me nervous.

Dawggone · 16-02-2016 03:37PM

kowtow wrote: »

Predicting cash prices over time frames longer than about 5 seconds makes me nervous.

True.
What makes me nervous is EU politicians meddling in a milk market...usually a poor outcome. French now pushing hard to curb supply. That will only help the Yanks and Kiwis...

patsy_mccabe · 16-02-2016 03:56PM

Dawggone wrote: »

True.
What makes me nervous is EU politicians meddling in a milk market...usually a poor outcome. French now pushing hard to curb supply. That will only help the Yanks and Kiwis...

Curb supply? Isn't that what Milk Quotas were for?

Dawggone · 16-02-2016 04:15PM

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Curb supply? Isn't that what Milk Quotas were for?

Yes.
The Kiwis had (imo), an open goal for over 30yrs...then we abolish quotas and less than a year later, push to bring them back again?? Crazy.
EU farmers are already subsidised by sfp. It's not like quotas were pulled overnight! It was signaled for years AND dairy farmers got a little taster what it could be like in '09.
I would be in favor of increasing intervention price in the short term, but no curb in supply.
Tillage farmers here are looking to the north west thinking wtf?

blackdog1 · 16-02-2016 04:34PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Yes.
The Kiwis had (imo), an open goal for over 30yrs...then we abolish quotas and less than a year later, push to bring them back again?? Crazy.
EU farmers are already subsidised by sfp. It's not like quotas were pulled overnight! It was signaled for years AND dairy farmers got a little taster what it could be like in '09.
I would be in favor of increasing intervention price in the short term, but no curb in supply.
Tillage farmers here are looking to the north west thinking wtf?

I would only be in favour of quotas if it was enforced in every major supplying country and each year increased with demand. No point one country or group taking the pain and the rest getting a free ride.

jaymla627 · 16-02-2016 04:44PM

blackdog1 wrote: »

I would only be in favour of quotas if it was enforced in every major supplying country and each year increased with demand. No point one country or group taking the pain and the rest getting a free ride.

How is it going to be implemented will their be a reference year like 2015, our will it go back to your original quota ...
Its an absolute minefield to be honest and could sink a good few new entrants/lads doubling numbers etc if it does come to pass

kevthegaff · 16-02-2016 04:47PM

If quotas come back, im finished with dairy...

keep going · 16-02-2016 04:49PM

OFFS

boggerman1 · 16-02-2016 04:51PM

Gdt down 2.3%.about 24500 tons on offer

patsy_mccabe · 16-02-2016 04:54PM

It will be interesting to see what happens. It would be great for Irish farmers, with their lower cost base, if the EU politicians sat back and did nothing, but I can't see that happening.
Can individual countries support their own farmers or does it have to be a pan European agreement?

kowtow · 16-02-2016 06:23PM

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

It will be interesting to see what happens. It would be great for Irish farmers, with their lower cost base, if the EU politicians sat back and did nothing, but I can't see that happening.
Can individual countries support their own farmers or does it have to be a pan European agreement?

I'd be really surprised if the EU managed to re-inflict quotas, and I suspect it would hurt Ireland hard if they did - I don't accept that our cost base is as low as all that and I reckon a fair few farmers now are depending on pushing out milk in much bigger volumes just to keep things going on a cash accounting basis.

More to the point, EU quotas are hardly likely to help the international markets, US & NZ are more than ready to make up the volume at the first sign of price stability. If we curtailed EU production now NZ would surely breathe a sigh of relief and push on fast.

And in the midst of all that - the EU can hardly shift the intervention price and subsidise Ireland to export unlimited milk to Brussels.

Or perhaps they'll bring back quotas and then simply compensate Ireland in cash for our troubles, sounds like a typical EU / Dublin fix.

Milked out · 16-02-2016 06:50PM

Dairygold held price for Jan.

vdlounge · 16-02-2016 06:52PM

milk is milk

mf240 · 16-02-2016 08:10PM

frazzledhome wrote: »

Loads still in it and it will continue for this year with €7/tonne rebate on all feed and Fertilizer.

A question for yourself, have ye been told yet much ye're milk is being subbed by?

If everyone were to buy a ton of feed and a ton of fert per cow this rebate would ammout to 0.0023 cent per litre.

mf240 · 16-02-2016 08:13PM

Price will bottom out when production falls .

Increasing intervetion will only leave us kicking along the bottom for longer.

Dawggone · 16-02-2016 09:25PM

mf240 wrote: »

Price will bottom out when production falls .

Increasing intervetion will only leave us kicking along the bottom for longer.

Totally agree Mf240.
Yes, in a perfect capitalistic world where free markets are totally (ruthlessly) free, it's great to sort the wheat from the chaff.

There is a hell of a lot more to it than that. Farming families. Am I the only one here that gives a damn about people?

Ireland is not NZ. Small farms have been the fabric of rural society across Ireland and indeed France. So after many years of protection we should allow those fragile farms quickly go to the wall?

Believe me when I say that I'm as big a vulture as they come...but there must may be another way. A different way than NZ....produce at one or two pips above CoP and grab scale from your neighbour?
Surely someone can have an 'almost' original thought that doesn't involve putting family farms to the wall?

RightTurnClyde · 16-02-2016 09:38PM

mf240 wrote: »

Price will bottom out when production falls .

Increasing intervetion will only leave us kicking along the bottom for longer.

+1 Giving life support to the less efficient.
( now weither that's us or "them" is another story)

Dawggone · 16-02-2016 09:49PM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

+1 Giving life support to the less efficient.
( now weither that's us or "them" is another story)

Thing is dairy farmers aren't long off life support...
Kowtow and all free marketeers believe in the survival of the fittest. Kowtow also bemoans the total lack of ability to add value to our produce. Maybe add value and keep those small family farms in business?
What Demi-God manifested itself in the kiwi system and declared it to be the Gospel?

barnaman · 16-02-2016 09:55PM

There you go Dawg .. turn milk to plastic enviromental and was very common before WW2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galalith

Personally think will be consolidation; if the Dairy lads are on life support the beef lads are at the corpse house.Decided my best move is get married now to find a teacher.. or a guard//

RightTurnClyde · 16-02-2016 10:03PM

Dawggone wrote: »

What Demi-God manifested itself in the kiwi system and declared it to be the Gospel?

and where the real damage was done was applying the kiwi system up the line. Buy a few dryers and turn as much premium product ( our milk) into junk powder and dump it into the market. No product development, no marketing , no research. While the readymix lorries were rolling into Bellview powder production globally was increasing and powder inventories were rapidly rising in China. Did any of the "suits" question the business plan?

Water John · 16-02-2016 10:25PM

Right, it isn't as if they weren't told. Another yard of stainless steel over in Mallow.

Farmer Ed · 16-02-2016 10:26PM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

and where the real damage was done was applying the kiwi system up the line. Buy a few dryers and turn as much premium product ( our milk) into junk powder and dump it into the market. No product development, no marketing , no research. While the readymix lorries were rolling into Bellview powder production globally was increasing and powder inventories were rapidly rising in China. Did any of the "suits" question the business plan?

Never mind bellview. Just a couple of hours down they Road another drier was being put in place at multiple times what it should cost to duplicate the work being done in bellview. Its like a competition as to who can make the worst investment. With bellview running mallow won't even be needed. When you look back at all the bull about not being able to process all the milk! What spin! And what an unessary waste of farmers money.!

kevthegaff · 16-02-2016 10:47PM

Dairy men with lower prices will keep expanding, around this townland only 3 guys still milking. 20 yrs ago 10 families. Very sad as Dawggone was saying but with the age profile and workload/incentive I can only see it getting worse. Land rent/prices will drop imo as fewer farmers, lower profits, most enterprises unviable, phasing out of sfp. Big decisions needed at co op/government level to reverse this or maybe they prefer this bleek future...

Greengrass1 · 16-02-2016 10:56PM

Did you see ettg tonight dawg?
2 organic milk producers on it.
One in organic milking 30 cows
The other man in loais converting over next 2 yrs milking 160 cows and reducing to 120.
60c/l

Dawggone · 16-02-2016 10:57PM

Lookit. I'm not trying to be different to the herd here.
I'm sick of being the only (lonely) voice that tries to keep the small family farm in the picture...ye know those type of farms, the ones that put you through university...on a ridiculously small amount of acres...I know well that all you lads 'paid' dearly for your inheritance (joke!), and every last one is a budding Bill Gates...great!
There is more at risk than your current a/c involved in this. Dairy farming in Ireland is at a crossroads...how this little crisis is handled will have much wider economic and social consequences than ye'r personal finances.

If milk price stays negative for the foreseeable I will be fine...in fact I will probably pick off those around me that will fail, but at what cost?
Ever hear of a Pyrrhic victory?

Stop blaming Coops. You own them...ergo your

Edit. Whole load of bull lost in that post! Do I hear a collective sigh?

kowtow · 16-02-2016 10:58PM

Dawggone wrote:

Thing is dairy farmers aren't long off life support... Kowtow and all free marketeers believe in the survival of the fittest. Kowtow also bemoans the total lack of ability to add value to our produce. Maybe add value and keep those small family farms in business? What Demi-God manifested itself in the kiwi system and declared it to be the Gospel?

You are right that NZ had an open goal for 30 years.

That being the case, why did their milk price pattern only change so much in 2003 onwards? There was also a fundamental change i think where powder took over from cheese as the surplus value store? - the markets own built in buffering mechanism.

I wonder was that all a China phenomenon... everyone talks about cycles in milk price but have NZ ever really been through a full 'cycle'?

The question for NZ as much as Ireland I suppose is whether an industry geared to powder surplus is a viable thing at all, absent a global commodity bubble.

And like all good questions it is largely rhetorical. We won't know the answers until much later in the day. .

Whatever the outcome i can't see that Europe could or should underwrite a free market surplus of the size we produce.

But there are things we can and should do as well as all the good things inside the farm gate which Frazz + others rightly emphasise.

On pricing + support we own our processors and the least we should expect is to be treated like adults. It shouldn't take the IFA to intercede between the owner of a business and those who manage it for the time being.

Nor should we rely on government to do all our marketing. the value of milk should be promoted and protected first at the point where it is grown - the farm gate, and through independent creameries.

And we mustn't allow those who would wish to to use the crisis as an opportunity to merge co-ops into processors and further even more careers at the expense of farmers.

If the situation teaches us anything it ought to be to demand transparency + harbour a healthy disrespect for men with PowerPoint presentations.

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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