Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

yosemitesam1 · 04-02-2016 02:33PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Versus maize, grass is very inefficient in its use of water. Grass also needs a lot more water than maize.

Most warm season grasses would be similar or better compared to maize, the likes of sorghum sudangrass, gamagrass,

Farmer Ed · 04-02-2016 03:02PM

keep going wrote: »

Dawg is the latest in the blood line that traces its roots back to an ilegitimite son of king louis the whatever that was beheaded in the revolution who fled france afterwards to ireland where from generation to generation the desire to take back what was rightfully theres.finally dawg has gone back and started to take it over a little bit at the time using the power of cows.

Fair play he must have been a mighty man to have fled France after being beheaded.

Water John · 04-02-2016 03:18PM

Milk not my area, but if suggesting alternatives for Ireland, along with organic what is the story with A2 milk? Somebody had recently that it held up the price paid by Synlait.

Water John · 04-02-2016 03:21PM

BTW Carbery must be lucky with the last 30 years.

keep going · 04-02-2016 05:39PM

Water John wrote: »

BTW Carbery must be lucky with the last 30 years.

In the current situation circumstances have been most fortuitous and was not predicted at the start.i think the secret is have a large work force relative to the amount of milk processed, pay some top management way too much and a large and complicated board structure with alot of board members looking after themselves.

kowtow · 04-02-2016 07:46PM

Fleet as deer, those Normans ran.

Mind you who could blame them with a maize header that size up their chuff.

Farmer Ed · 04-02-2016 07:59PM

keep going wrote: »

In the current situation circumstances have been most fortuitous and was not predicted at the start.i think the secret is have a large work force relative to the amount of milk processed, pay some top management way too much and a large and complicated board structure with alot of board members looking after themselves.

I think the trouble is in a lot of Co Ops we don't have a clue how much people are being paid. We would never have found out for example the level of pay in Dairygold were it not for that court case. Back then the CEO was on 580k plus bonuses plus expenses. No one seems to know how much the board get paid?
We do know the board of Drinagh for example are only on something like 130 per day. Fair play to them for being transparent enough to reveal it on their annual report. While they keep paying top price for milk it's hard to see anyone begrudging them that kind of money.

Timmaay · 04-02-2016 08:28PM

Dawg, every pig farmer getting a flat rate 3k "ski holiday" payment, ya happy now

?

keep going · 04-02-2016 09:46PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

I think the trouble is in a lot of Co Ops we don't have a clue how much people are being paid. We would never have found out for example the level of pay in Dairygold were it not for that court case. Back then the CEO was on 580k plus bonuses plus expenses. No one seems to know how much the board get paid?
We do know the board of Drinagh for example are only on something like 130 per day. Fair play to them for being transparent enough to reveal it on their annual report. While they keep paying top price for milk it's hard to see anyone begrudging them that kind of money.

And the board of the best paying coop is on less than half that and plenty crib about it.

atlantic mist · 04-02-2016 11:48PM

plenty of niche markets for dairy product - organic, uth, wheat free, gluten free, lactose free, night time milk, GM free, human free (thanks lely robots), all depends what the market wants, the market doesn't know itself most of the time so difficult for us decide

if french are pushing organic it may be to bolster up domestic market and keep out/reduce possible imports (were actively seeking markets to flood) why would you put foreign milk on shelf when you have lovely french (intensively) organic feed cows

a2a milk the research was a bit sketchy time will tell if it has health benefits, though it was taken over by a private company after research concluded, do nz farmers own this company or are they just suppliers with specific cows?

Dawggone · 05-02-2016 07:13AM

Timmaay wrote: »

Dawg, every pig farmer getting a flat rate 3k "ski holiday" payment, ya happy now ?

Resounding NO!

I didn't get one red cent...

Then again, I hate skiing.

Dawggone · 05-02-2016 07:50AM

atlantic mist wrote: »

if french are pushing organic it may be to bolster up domestic market and keep out/reduce possible imports (were actively seeking markets to flood) why would you put foreign milk on shelf when you have lovely french (intensively) organic feed cows

Good point. The demand/growth for organic is growing at a higher rate in Germany, Italy and Spain than in France. In fact the processors here just don't have the product to meet demand and a lot of Eastern European produce is finding its way onto the shelves.

I visited a farm yesterday that produce 1.7 million litres of organic milk.
There are six partners in the farm.
Cows housed full time.
Four robots.
Cows producing nearly 12k litres.
All feed is grown and some sold to the organic market...organic soya is €900/ton and maize is €300.

They went organic 9 years ago. Milk in that time has consistently been a minimum of 9cpl over ordinary milk. That margin over ordinary is growing as demand surges.

I spent a very pleasant afternoon there with the 'cowman'. Really good stockman. Since the robots went in scc has jumped by 100k but he is slowly getting that down. Seemingly its all about how well you know the individual animals and interpret the data from the robot.

All in all its a fine set up with no money spared.
The farm is 680ha. and they also have 4chicken houses.
400ha is now organic.
The other 280ha is mostly used for hybrid maize seed production.
The chicken houses are also organic and the feed is also home grown.

A fine setup and a good example of how to add value. Not one bit of produce leaves the farm without added value.

frazzledhome · 05-02-2016 08:14AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Good point. The demand/growth for organic is growing at a higher rate in Germany, Italy and Spain than in France. In fact the processors here just don't have the product to meet demand and a lot of Eastern European produce is finding its way onto the shelves.

I visited a farm yesterday that produce 1.7 million litres of organic milk.
There are six partners in the farm.
Cows housed full time.
Four robots.
Cows producing nearly 12k litres.
All feed is grown and some sold to the organic market...organic soya is €900/ton and maize is €300.

They went organic 9 years ago. Milk in that time has consistently been a minimum of 9cpl over ordinary milk. That margin over ordinary is growing as demand surges.

I spent a very pleasant afternoon there with the 'cowman'. Really good stockman. Since the robots went in scc has jumped by 100k but he is slowly getting that down. Seemingly its all about how well you know the individual animals and interpret the data from the robot.

All in all its a fine set up with no money spared.
The farm is 680ha. and they also have 4chicken houses.
400ha is now organic.
The other 280ha is mostly used for hybrid maize seed production.
The chicken houses are also organic and the feed is also home grown.

A fine setup and a good example of how to add value. Not one bit of produce leaves the farm without adding value.

Great post
Dawg, what kinda area is supplying feed to dairy cows?
I've a friend in Dorset with full organic set up but c30% of farm is pasture, 30 is legume and the remainder in grains. This is for rotation and to supply some feed to cows.

Dawggone · 05-02-2016 09:10AM

frazzledhome wrote: »

Great post
Dawg, what kinda area is supplying feed to dairy cows?
I've a friend in Dorset with full organic set up but c30% of farm is pasture, 30 is legume and the remainder in grains. This is for rotation and to supply some feed to cows.

I don't know exactly how many hectares are used specifically for the cows.
Lucerne and clovers are grown in rotation with maize, soya and wheat. They do sell surplus into the organic market.

Farmer Ed · 05-02-2016 12:51PM

Dawggone wrote: »

I don't know exactly how many hectares are used specifically for the cows.
Lucerne and clovers are grown in rotation with maize, soya and wheat. They do sell surplus into the organic market.

I've spoken a few times to a man from Galway who has been been organic for years. I've never been to his farm but it did sound really interesting. He told me a story of how he was a board member of a Co Op for a while and that helped convince him that he needed to look at an alternative. When I spoke to him last he was milking over 100 cows on two old Lely A2 robots. Funny that also he had a chicken enterprise as well. He told me he had taken a lot of land to grow arable silage for the cows and also his concentrates had to be imported from the UK. He sounded like he is a man who knows what he is doing. But if I understand him correctly his stocking rate would be much lower than a conventional farm.

atlantic mist · 05-02-2016 01:37PM

900 for organic soya, thats some price, seen as you are a tillage man at heart dwag would you not be better off growing for these organic set ups, the consumer may not be overly impressed with organic when they hear its intensively fed, is it a viable long term market???

i know a lad producing for organic close to me here and he said he only has a quota for so much produce anything above goes at manufacturing price as they dont have markets for food, domestic market to small, uk market doesnt like expensive food they want it cheaper than yesterday

top milk price for the next decade will go to those with best marketing skills regardless of market speculation

kowtow · 05-02-2016 02:06PM

atlantic mist wrote: »

i know a lad producing for organic close to me here and he said he only has a quota for so much produce

Who imposes a quota on him?

I suspect that in an early stage market like organic you'd need to be careful to supply one or more (and choose carefully) wholesalers / processors up the line to be making sure of a paying home for your produce. You certainly can't just lie back and let it happen - and wait for the cheque to come in.

Come to think of it the business mind-shift for organic could be a bigger thing for the average Irish farm than even the change in farming practice.

OTOH, if the worst that can happen is you are stuck with the manufacturing price - it makes you think - given that the subject of this thread for the most part is... the manufacturing price.

On a slight aside I see Neil Darwent (?sp) and his "free range" milk designation seems to be getting a fair bit of traction on Twitter lately. Almost everyone here produces free range milk I think (by his definition)... in fact a lot of it would be more than free range - but the tone and energy of his work in promoting it in the UK is an interesting lesson to those who feel that the marketing is best left to the big National / Quango organisations like Bord Bia.

Organics may perfectly well turn out to be a sideshow - but to see such an open minded discussion here amongst the understandable doom and gloom of the global commodity markets is an encouraging prospect.

Bass Reeves · 05-02-2016 04:24PM

It is hard to see these premium markets paying good premiums longterm. Also processors take over marketing and supermarkets own brand them. I think if one looks at the AA and HE schemes you see how the margin over normal produce remains static in monetary terms and after a while these become the new specifications.

Orginally with the AA scheme, a base price was neogiated nationally this was often 5c+/Kg over local prices of slaughtering processor then your bonus was paid on top of that. Now it is all set locally and processor will often give a lower base if you have these cattle to eat into premium.

The only way you control it is to control the brand. But processors and supermarket get over this by putting another similar brand in place. While organics may last longer the end result will be similar here in Ireland. France and the UK may deil with primary producers differently due to nationalisation of markets. See re d tractor beef brand in the UK but I would not be looking for organics as a panacea for low milk prices

atlantic mist · 07-02-2016 04:03PM

quota probably incorrect term, contract was his words, they are the same thing to me, no penalties on current contracts but im sure that will change slowly over time

dont think the change to organics would be much of a change for majority of farms in ireland, looking at our system it would not be a big change at all wed reduce numbers and some efficiency and produce less from ground, big change would be reduced vets fees higher culling rate and cutting out fertiliser

its only a premium until it becomes the standard, our milk has a lower SCC and TBC limits then that in EU so in theory in should be a premium but its considered here as the standard

kowtow · 07-02-2016 04:44PM

atlantic mist wrote:

its only a premium until it becomes the standard, our milk has a lower SCC and TBC limits then that in EU so in theory in should be a premium but its considered here as the standard

Very true, and unfortunately it makes little difference at the bulk end of the global powder market.

There is no doubt a premium side within the commodity trade where origin counts somewhat but I suspect it is small - markets which want powdered milk aren't for the most part those able or willing to pay extra for green credentials.

I wonder what percentage of the powdered egg market is free range?

The big unanswered question is how much milk can the caring green / premium powder niche actually absorb?

Dawggone · 07-02-2016 06:50PM

atlantic mist wrote: »

quota probably incorrect term, contract was his words, they are the same thing to me, no penalties on current contracts but im sure that will change slowly over time

dont think the change to organics would be much of a change for majority of farms in ireland, looking at our system it would not be a big change at all wed reduce numbers and some efficiency and produce less from ground, big change would be reduced vets fees higher culling rate and cutting out fertiliser

its only a premium until it becomes the standard, our milk has a lower SCC and TBC limits then that in EU so in theory in should be a premium but its considered here as the standard

Mist, I enjoy you're posts, but I think you may not be seeing the wood for the trees regarding the huge change of direction that organics would be to the mindset of Ireland's farmers.

(Firstly I must be on the record that I think organic produce is a gimmick.)

Grass in the ever green isle is totally dependent on nitrogen in its artificial form. Agreed?
Well, here where I am, I'm used to a limit of 60units/acre of AN. I've been on a very sharp learning curve learning to work without the artificial units. But it's easily do-able, with some experience and know how.
The growth of organics could very well be a cul de sac that some will crash on but atm its cruising...this is probably a reflection on the lack of local 'garden' produce that is readily available in rural continental europe, but sadly lacking in the larger conurbations. This opens the door for 'organics' to fill the void...

I can't see why you think that vet fees would be reduced and cull rates would increase. Why?

Also the max limit for tbc here is 50k and 200scc. Has it changed for Ireland?

Dawggone · 07-02-2016 07:05PM

kowtow wrote: »

markets which want powdered milk aren't for the most part those able or willing to pay extra for green credentials.

I wonder what percentage of the powdered egg market is free range?

The big unanswered question is how much milk can the caring green / premium powder niche actually absorb?

As ever Kowtow you have an excellent ability to ask the relevant questions.

There is a graph (that I've tried several times to link) doing the rounds here that has gained a little traction. It is a superimposition of the rise of organic food in the U.S. and the rise of autism. The graph also shows the usage of Chlorpyrifos (an organophosphate like Dursban) which had been linked to autism.

Methinks if the use of breast implants was graphed against the incidence of autism, it would be as informative...

Water John · 07-02-2016 07:17PM

So Dawgone, you say their are links between autism and organic products, organophosphates and breast implants.
That's a whole range of things.
I think it was also supposed to be linked to the MMR vaccine.
I am always openminded but this is a whole scatter.

Kovu · 07-02-2016 07:22PM

^^ I'd be fairly sure that Dawg is leaning more towards the fact that correlation does not imply causation i.e. graphs that have the same curve but absolutely no crossover between them.

Dawggone · 07-02-2016 07:23PM

Water John wrote: »

So Dawgone, you say their are links between autism and organic products, organophosphates and breast implants.
That's a whole range of things.
I think it was also supposed to be linked to the MMR vaccine.
I am always openminded but this is a whole scatter.

I'm NOT saying any such thing!

There are 'implied' links from pseudoscientific nonevidence that may be taken as gospel by Joe/Joephine public. Misinformation.

But on such things fads/fashions may gain momentum...

Dawggone · 07-02-2016 07:25PM

Kovu wrote: »

^^ I'd be fairly sure that Dawg is leaning more towards the fact that correlation does not imply causation i.e. graphs that have the same curve but absolutely no crossover between them.

Merci beaucoup Kovu.

Water John · 07-02-2016 07:28PM

Accept your point Dawgone, misunderstood your stand and agree with you.

kowtow · 07-02-2016 07:53PM

The world is rarely rational when it comes to the big decisions because our opinions are always coloured by the choices we've already made.

By rights, it should be farmers leading the way towards organic production, with consumers resisting the (potential) cost implications.

Working harder and taking more financial risk for continuously lower rewards is not an economically rational choice , but it is an inevitable consequence of an industrial agri food industry, and yet we seem to choose it hands down every time when the alternative is organics.

I include myself in this group of conventional sceptics.

When we dismiss alternatives like organics as a fad, do we mean it, or does repeating it just make us more comfortable with our own decisions?

kowtow · 07-02-2016 07:56PM

Kovu wrote:

correlation does not imply causation.

From a traders perspective I've always found causation a bit overrated.

Dawggone · 07-02-2016 08:18PM

kowtow wrote: »

The world is rarely rational when it comes to the big decisions because our opinions are always coloured by the choices we've already made.

By rights, it should be farmers leading the way towards organic production, with consumers resisting the (potential) cost implications.

Working harder and taking more financial risk for continuously lower rewards is not an economically rational choice , but it is an inevitable consequence of an industrial agri food industry, and yet we seem to choose it hands down every time when the alternative is organics.

I include myself in this group of conventional sceptics.

When we dismiss alternatives like organics as a fad, do we mean it, or does repeating it just make us more comfortable with our own decisions?

There are so many excellent questions to be answered there...

Firstly. I would suggest that those decisions that we've already made, were actually made FOR us. Teagasc...Government...Herd economics.

Secondly, I would argue that it should be farmers 'reacting' to market demands. Isn't that what the Agri establishment told us we should be doing? (Tongue firmly in cheek!)

The other Q's I'm open to wider opinion...

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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