Zika virus has 'explosive pandemic potential'

RobertKK · 28-01-2016 01:27PM #1

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35425731

US scientists have urged the World Health Organisation to take urgent action over the Zika virus, which they say has "explosive pandemic potential".
Writing in a US medical journal, they called on the WHO to heed lessons from the Ebola outbreak and convene an emergency committee of disease experts.
They said a vaccine might be ready for testing in two years but it could be a decade before it is publicly available.
Zika, linked to shrunken brains in children, has caused panic in Brazil.
Thousands of people have been infected there and it has spread to some 20 countries.

Some of the advice being given in affected countries is: women shouldn't become pregnant for two years given the risk.
Pregnant women warned not to travel infected regions.

The Zika virus was first discovered in monkeys in the Zika forest in Uganda in 1947 and the first human case was in Nigeria in 1954. Then cases in Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia in 1977/78, then Micronesia in 2007, French Polynesia in 2013 and now in South America since 2015.

It is believed some of the cases of Zika virus have been sexually transmitted.

Not great for pregnant women, or people in general or for Brazil and the Olympics with this virus out of control at the moment, with pandemic potential.
Will this turn into another Ebola disaster but without the death toll?

smash · 28-01-2016 01:35PM

So wait, WW parody article could be real?

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/01/27/fashion-is-the-zika-virus-the-new-ebola/

anothernight · 28-01-2016 01:37PM

It's primarily transmitted by mosquitoes, of which there aren't many in this part of the world. The symptoms are manageable in adults and it's not usually lethal. Meh, we'll be fine.

28-01-2016 01:39PM

RobertKK wrote: »

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35425731

Some of the advice being given in affected countries is: women shouldn't become pregnant for two years given the risk.
Pregnant women warned not to travel infected regions.

The Zika virus was first discovered in monkeys in the Zika forest in Uganda in 1947 and the first human case was in Nigeria in 1954. Then cases in Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia in 1977/78, then Micronesia in 2007, French Polynesia in 2013 and now in South America since 2015.

It is believed some of the cases of Zika virus have been sexually transmitted.

Not great for pregnant women, or people in general or for Brazil and the Olympics with this virus out of control at the moment, with pandemic potential.
Will this turn into another Ebola disaster but without the death toll?

Sorry just to correct this. There has been one report of possible spread of Zika through sexual contact, and one report of possible spread through a blood transfusion.

There isn't enough evidence to believe anything about it's transmission from an isolated and as yet barely investigated case.

The Backwards Man · 28-01-2016 01:39PM

Another argument for killing all the mosquitoes. Mosquitoes kill more people every year than any other animal, even people.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-01-2016 01:40PM

It's been a while since we had the ebola virus so it is time for the next phase of scaremongering. Why not focus on Brazil, given that the Olympics will be there this year.

In 3 out of 4 people this virus causes NO symptoms. They don't even know they have it. In others the symptoms are flu-like. And there is no evidence to suggest that it is passed from person to person, only by mosquitos. Listen back to the doctor on Morning Ireland this morning, this is what he said.

I don't remember any big scare during previous events (mentioned above). Why not?

28-01-2016 01:41PM

Candie wrote: »

Sorry just to correct this. There has been one report of possible spread of Zika through sexual contact, and one report of possible spread through a blood transfusion.

There isn't enough evidence to believe anything about it's transmission from an isolated and as yet barely investigated case.

Tried explaining that to someone but they had their mind made up. It was on the news apparently.

The Backwards Man · 28-01-2016 01:42PM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's been a while since we had the ebola virus so it is time for the next phase of scaremongering. Why not focus on Brazil, given that the Olympics will be there this year.

In 3 out of 4 people this virus causes NO symptoms. They don't even know they have it. And there is no evidence to suggest that it is passed from person to person, only by mosquitos. Listen back to the doctor on Morning Ireland this morning, this is what he said.

I don't remember any big scare during previous events (mentioned above). Why not?

It's the damage to unborn babies link that's causing the panic this time, but I don't think that has even been definitively proven yet.

eeguy · 28-01-2016 01:43PM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Another argument for killing all the mosquitoes. Mosquitoes kill more people every year than any other animal, even people.

Mosquitos breed in water.

We should poison all the water. That'll show them!

28-01-2016 01:43PM

It's not spread from person to person (as far as we know) generally, although there is some evidence to suggest it can be passed in late pregnancy albeit very infrequently if at all. As distinct from the effect on a developing fetus when a pregnant mother is infected.

The Backwards Man · 28-01-2016 01:44PM

eeguy wrote: »

Mosquitos breed in water.

We should poison all the water. That'll show them!

The Yanks have being doing that for years. Way ahead of their time yet again.

RobertKK · 28-01-2016 01:47PM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's been a while since we had the ebola virus so it is time for the next phase of scaremongering. Why not focus on Brazil, given that the Olympics will be there this year.

In 3 out of 4 people this virus causes NO symptoms. They don't even know they have it. In others the symptoms are flu-like. And there is no evidence to suggest that it is passed from person to person, only by mosquitos. Listen back to the doctor on Morning Ireland this morning, this is what he said.

I don't remember any big scare during previous events (mentioned above). Why not?

How many people were affected/infected elsewhere?

22 countries in the Americas have the virus now, it seems to be spreading fast.

btw when cattle and sheep here in Europe were getting the Schmallenberg virus spread by midges, the drugs companies found a vaccine for the animals.
It caused pregnant cattle and sheep (depending on stage of pregnancy) to have deformed offspring, which would not live, they couldn't stand, twisted necks. I had two cases.
The animals became immune to the virus once infected.
Wonder if humans who are infected with Zika virus become immune and will we get a vaccine as quickly for Zika virus as quickly as the animals did for Schmallenberg?

28-01-2016 01:50PM

Human trials on the Zika vaccine are a couple of years off and it'll be up to ten years before it's available as things stand.

However once the great white public are at risk it's likely to move faster. All it took was a few Europeans to be infected with Ebola for the vaccine to get the priority it should always have had.

AllGunsBlazing · 28-01-2016 02:02PM

So this is what we're going to be panicking about in 2016? I had been wondering.

28-01-2016 02:04PM

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

So this is what we're going to be panicking about in 2016? I had been wondering.

If you're a newly pregnant woman or father to be, and have recently been or live in the danger zone, then yes. You'd be panicking.

I can't imagine the stress this is going to put people under.

The_Valeyard · 28-01-2016 02:06PM

Candie wrote: »

If you're a newly pregnant woman or father to be, and have recently been or live in the danger zone, then yes. You'd be panicking.

I can't imagine the stress this is going to put people under.

Id say pregnancy is stressful and scary enough without this all added onto it!

Luckily from what ive understood from the news, the European case involved a woman who just travelled back from South America, not that the European mosquitoes are currently carrying this infection.

my main worry would be the people travelling to and from the 2016 Rio Olympics, the last thing we need is for this virus to mutate or jump transmission wise and become a global issue.

gctest50 · 28-01-2016 02:10PM

RobertKK wrote: »

......
22 countries in the Americas have the virus now, it seems to be spreading fast....

It's doing well for itself :

Experts from European countries traced records of Zika cases as early as Mar. 2015. Britain confirmed five while the Netherlands 10, all of which were infected after travelling from South America.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/23/zika-virus-three-uk-travellers-diagnosed

sbsquarepants · 28-01-2016 02:14PM

Yawn yawn yawn - another year another virus coming to kill us all.

Not worth worrying about - it could happen that some virus comes along and wipes out half of humanity, but if it does, it does - we are not in any way capable of stopping it so no point fretting.

28-01-2016 02:14PM

gctest50 wrote: »

It's doing well for itself :

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/23/zika-virus-three-uk-travellers-diagnosed

The virus isn't like Ebola, it's not (as far as anyone can tell, and there is no evidence to suggest) spread from person to person without the medium of a mosquito. People arriving in countries already infected aren't a danger to others, they're not spreading it.

gctest50 · 28-01-2016 02:23PM

Candie wrote: »

The virus isn't like Ebola, it's not (as far as anyone can tell, and there is no evidence to suggest) spread from person to person without the medium of a mosquito. People arriving in countries already infected aren't a danger to others, they're not spreading it.

dunno

Furthermore, patients 1 and 3 reported having vaginal sexual intercourse in the days after patient 1 returned home but before the onset of his clinical illness. It is reasonable to suspect that infected semen may have passed from patient 1 to patient 3 during coitus. Another possibility is that direct contact and exchange of other bodily fluids, such as saliva, could have resulted in ZIKV transmission, but illness did not develop in the 4 children of patients 1 and 3 during this time.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3321795/

28-01-2016 02:25PM

gctest50 wrote: »

dunno

These are suspicions to be investigated. It's not evidence. As things stand there's no evidence to be concerned about transmission from casual contact.

cowboyBuilder · 28-01-2016 02:30PM

It is only dangerous for pregnant women, and the mozzies aren't gonna turn up in Europe - have malaria infected mozzies ever done so ?

So it is scaremongering - but obviously very serious for the people in the area wanting to get pregnant.

c_man · 28-01-2016 02:30PM

sbsquarepants wrote: »

Yawn yawn yawn - another year another virus coming to kill us all.

Exactly. People will get into a tizzy panicking about some far off limited outbreak, all the while ignoring the multitude of diseases, cancers and illnesses they are far, far more likely to get.

eeguy · 28-01-2016 02:32PM

c_man wrote: »

Exactly. People will get into a tizzy panicking about some far off limited outbreak, all the while ignoring the multitude of diseases, cancers and illnesses they are far, far more likely to get.

Hundreds of column inches, hype, speculation and panic dedicated to a virus that will kill far less than the flu.

arayess · 28-01-2016 02:35PM

makes you thankful living ireland and our ****ty climate.
we tend to be immune to these wonder-illnesses that crop up

read a few reports from brazil , seems like a terrible tragedy.
made me really sad reading about it and the pictures.

07Lapierre · 28-01-2016 02:36PM

eeguy wrote: »

Mosquitos breed in water.

We should poison all the water. That'll show them!

May we should put fluoride in our drinking water?

c_man · 28-01-2016 02:39PM

eeguy wrote: »

Hundreds of column inches, hype, speculation and panic dedicated to a virus that will kill far less than the flu.

Yep. Don't forget the inevitable questions about "Is Ireland prepared for <insert scary disease>?" being thrown at politicians, the HSE and filling up a good chunk of the news for a while. This will generate even more panic among the public and a clamber for something to be done.

Meanwhile 10,000 Irish people will die in the year from cardiovascular disease, and 1 in 3 of us will get some form of cancer in our lifetime.

Howard the Duck · 28-01-2016 02:53PM

c_man wrote: »

Yep. Don't forget the inevitable questions about "Is Ireland prepared for <insert scary disease>?" being thrown at politicians, the HSE and filling up a good chunk of the news for a while. This will generate even more panic among the public and a clamber for something to be done.

Meanwhile 10,000 Irish people will die in the year from cardiovascular disease, and 1 in 3 of us will get some form of cancer in our lifetime.

What do you want people to do? ignore the 1000s of children who will be born with a terrible disease?One city in Brazil went from 5 cases of microcephaly a year to 300 in the last 6 months .Some of the comments in here are unbelievable and clearly people aren't even bothering to read about it before commenting. This is something that needs urgent action.
There should be a clamber for something to be done about this, a vaccine is urgently needed.
Also last time i checked there is millions being spent on cancer research and other diseases.

eeguy · 28-01-2016 02:57PM

Howard the Duck wrote: »

What do you want people to do? ignore the 1000s of children who will be born with a terrible disease?One city in Brazil went from 5 cases of microcephaly a year to 300 in the last 6 months

That's fair enough, but it's in a country on the far side of the world with a different climate. We're nowhere near as susceptible as Brazil.
I'm moaning about the usual tabloid over reaction to these stories, with headlines like "IS IRELAND PREPARED" "SHOULD BORDERS BE CLOSED" "MIDGET GETS ATTACKED AFTER ZIKA VIRUS MISTAKE"

Howard the Duck · 28-01-2016 03:01PM

eeguy wrote: »

That's fair enough, but it's in a country on the far side of the world with a different climate. We're nowhere near as susceptible as Brazil.
I'm moaning about the usual tabloid over reaction to these stories, with headlines like "IS IRELAND PREPARED" "SHOULD BORDERS BE CLOSED" "MIDGET GETS ATTACKED AFTER ZIKA VIRUS MISTAKE"

So you're moaning about something that hasn't happened yet while also making light of a very very serious problem. When problems like this occur i don't think we should choose to turn off because "it's on the other side of the world". Looking at the pictures of the children born with deformities would break anybodies heart. The fact that this could effect most of south America and some of North America should be of great concern.

c_man · 28-01-2016 03:04PM

Howard the Duck wrote: »

What do you want people to do? ignore the 1000s of children who will be born with a terrible disease?One city in Brazil went from 5 cases of microcephaly a year to 300 in the last 6 months .Some of the comments in here are unbelievable and clearly people aren't even bothering to read about it before commenting. This is something that needs urgent action.
There should be a clamber for something to be done about this, a vaccine is urgently needed.
Also last time i checked there is millions being spent on cancer research and other diseases.

I think you're missing the point entirely. My point is the media and public reaction to this here in Ireland will be way over the top. This will follow the exact same path as SARS outbreak in 2002 and Ebola more recently.

Of course something needs to be done in the places where it's happening. Please don't misrepresent what I was saying. there may be millions being spent on the others, but the point is that your average Joe will spend more time worrying about this (let's be honest in terms of Ireland) non-existent threat rather than getting off his own arse and doing some exercise/quitting smoking or actually facing of the myriad of life choices which actually will affect his life span.

Zika virus has 'explosive pandemic potential'

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