The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread III

clickerquicklic wrote: »

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/betting-psychology/wisdom-of-the-crowd-applied-to-betting

That's a good read , league position largely irrelevant for compiling odds , goal expectancy etc be more of a factor , look at Chelsea odds per game v league position . Pinnacle sports have some great articles if your interested in that thing .

very interesting ..

The story on Francis Galton left out the most important part. He reasoned that being an educated man of means, his estimate for the bull would be far closer than median guess of the ordinary people about him. It came as a shock to his breeding and ego that 'the people' were right and he was wrong.

I enjoyed this anecdote ..
English manager, Redknapp had enjoyed a successful spell with Spurs and the public was seemingly behind his appointment), while many bettors were willing to rely on the judgment of others (and the media). Not being privy to the information of others bettors assumed that the information amounted to more than just speculation or wishful thinking. It didn’t – Roy Hodgson was announced as the new England manager on 1st May 2012.

Anyone remember how England did in the World Cup under Hodgson. Maybe 'the peoples money' was right and Harry should have had the job.

Everton Win 13/5
Everton +1 4/5
Everton Over 5.5 Corners 10/11
Everton +1 corner 5/6

clickerquicklic wrote: »

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-to-calculate-poisson-distribution

Have a read of this

The Poisson distribution is interesting.
But a very high likelihood that the strategy will be errors.
Poisson calculates on the basis of the law of "large numbers".
But does not take into account form, injuries, game before and after the game, team motivation.

I think the main movement of money is in England, Asian countries.
So I think the odds to win the favorite (team with the name, Real, Barcelona, Manchester, Bayern) is usually underestimated.
But that is not a cash flow.
In rates one of the factors for me is not the change in the coefficient of winning favorite.
Logically I think the favorite I put a lot, but the coefficient does not change. So here the bookie can trap the player.

For example, take the match Napoli - Torino today.
I am sure that a lot of people bet on Napoli to win, but coeffcient on Pinnacle Sports does not change (1.42 - 1.41).
Although the money would have to shift it down.

City corners are definitely overpriced tonight. Not sure how exactly to try and take advantage of it though. I'm gonna go all out:

City race to 9 corners @11/2 (Betfair)

Great value in what will be a very attacking and tight game with plenty of goals - If Everton's recent games are anything to go by.

Napoli -vs- Torino, Torino +1 @ 2.480

The coefficient is not changed even after the recaps

just got a free 10 yoyo bet on b365, stuck it on lukaku AT & everton to win 2-1 @20/1

magherakid wrote: »

Mangala to be shown a card 9/4

nice one doesn't play 2nd half

and the whole forum breathes a sigh of relief :pac:

KevIRL wrote: »

Lukaku A/T enhanced from 7/4 to 5/2 with PP. Will have some of that. In form and up against a leaky city defense.

Boomtime

eh i dunno wrote: »

Hoping on the Lukaku funbus @5/2 and a double of benfica/napoli @1.77

Boom boom