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December 2015 Boards forecast contest -- note entry deadline moved up to 0900h 1st

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Comments

  • #62
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay, almost forgot to update for the end of four weeks, but the right page is still up despite it now being 30th.

    The IMT now sits at 8.4 C after a somewhat cooler week at 7.2 C.

    The PRC even before the deluge on the 29th was soaring -- 242% of normal at the end of the 28th due to a week that averaged 292% of normal. Today will leave this closer to 250% and then there isn't any time left to reduce the number.

    SUN has edged up fractionally but is still rounded off about 67% after a week at 68%.

    I have come no closer to a decision on the Christmas Day snow bonus, as I was saying, the only evidence in favour comes from forum reports of snow falling in the first hour of the calendar day in Donegal. I didn't get anything too definitive from the hourly observations. But I don't think it will decide who wins or loses the month or the year so it may not matter whether the coin is heads or tails.


  • #63
    rameire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,479 ✭✭✭rameire


    January Link

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057541649

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • #64
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT finished on 8.2 C, Shannon alone was 9.2 C. Over in Britain they had a CET of 9.7 which broke the previous record by 1.6 degrees.

    So I will hazard a guess that it was rather mild.

    I could work out the exact PRC number but as I know it's north of 240% and I can easily get that from the MS, we'll wait for that exact number. Same goes for SUN which I estimate to be in the 65-70 per cent range.

    Now, it could be a while until the MS shows up, with the weekend and holiday today etc, maybe it won't even show up on Monday. I may do up a provisional scoring table later. Trying to right the ship here at present if you get my drift.

    Happy new year and don't forget to enter the January contest (late penalties start a bit earlier this month, like about five minutes ago) ... :)


  • #65
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Knock, knock, who's there?

    Miles.

    Miles who?

    Miles Offen-Evrything


    Provisional Scoring for December 2015


    FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Bonus, snow ___ TOTALS

    Rikand _____________ 23*_ 15 _ 00 _ 14* _ 10 ____ 2 _ 2 ___ 3 ____ 69
    lostinashford __ (-2) __22* _ 13 _ 04 _ 12* _ 06 ____ 1 _ 5 ___ 0 _ 63-2=61
    mickger844posts (-3) _ 21* _ 06 _ 18 _ 04* _ 02 ____ 5 _ 5 ___ 0 _ 61-3=58
    omicron ____________ 20*_ 10 _ 08 _ 10* _ 04 ____ 3 _ 4 ___ 0 ____ 59
    200motels __________ 19* _ 11 _ 09 _ 03* _ 02 ____ 5 _ 2 ___ 0 ____ 51
    Pauldry ____________ 19* _ 11 _ 00 _ 07* _ 04 ____ 1 _ 1 ___ 3 ____ 46
    M.T. Cranium _______ 17* _ 09 _ 08 _ 06* _ 02 ____ 5 _ 2 ___ 0 ____ 49
    MrSkinner __________ 16* _ 08 _ 08 _ 06* _ 05 ____ 5 _ 4 ___ 0 ____ 52
    sryanbruen _________ 16* _ 03 _ 11 _ 12* _ 02 ____ 5 _ 4 ___ 0 ____ 53
    Schadenfreudia ______ 14* _ 05 _ 02 _ 10* _ 06 ____ 3 _ 5 ___ 0 ____ 45
    jd _____ (-2) _______ 13* _ 12 _ 03 _ 09* _ 04 ____ 1 _ 3 ___ 0 _ 45-2=43
    Bsal _______________13* _ 10 _ 11 _ 04* _ 00 ____ 3 _ 3 ___ 0 ____ 44

    Con Sensus _________ 11* _ 09 _ 05 _ 10* _ 05 ____ 3 _ 4 ___ 0 ____ 47

    Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 11* _ 11 _ 09 _ 03* _ 02 ____ 1 _ 3 ___ 0 _ 40-3=37
    Joe Public ___ (-1) ___ 11* _ 06 _ 00 _ 13* _ 08 ____ 0 _ 1 ___ 3 _ 42-1=41
    Lumi ______________ 09* _ 07 _ 10 _ 10* _ 05 ____ 4 _ 4 ___ 0 ____ 49
    Sunflower3 _________ 09* _ 05 _ 08 _ 10* _ 06 ____ 4 _ 5 ___ 0 ____ 47
    Tae laidir ___________07* _ 10 _ 02 _ 12* _ 05 _____4 _ 3 ___ 0 ____ 43
    johnmac ___________ 07* _ 01 _ 06 _ 08* _ 05 _____1 _ 5 ___ 0 ____ 33
    Dacogawa __________ 05* _ 06 _ 02 _ 13* _ 06 _____3 _ 2 ___ 0 ____ 37
    kindredspirit ________ 04* _ 15 _ 05 _ 11* _ 07 _____3 _ 5 ___ 0 ____ 50
    Dasa29 ____________ 04* _ 00 _ 18 _ 11* _ 04 _____0 _ 1 ___ 3 ____ 41
    waterways ___ (-3) __ 02* _ 18 _ 15 _ 12* _ 03 _____ 2 _ 4 ___ 3 _59-3 = 56

    Norma L ___________ 02* _ 10 _ 01 _ 06*_ 04 _____ 2 _ 4 ___ 0 ____ 29

    DOCARCH __________ 01* _ 11 _ 05 _ 10* _ 03 _____ 1 _ 2 ___ 3 ____ 36
    Jpmarn ____________ 00* _ 04 _ 00 _ 14* _ 07 _____ 1 _ 2 ___ 3 ____ 31

    ___________________________________

    These will be placed in order when confirmed. Not much involved in that as IMT scores went top to bottom. The raw scores before mercy rule applied would have been 13 at the top and zero for anyone below 5.7 C. The raw scores for precip would all have been zero. While some were pretty good guesses, nobody in our group foresaw the deluge that actually happened. The sunshine scores were fairly feeble in general too but I saw no reason to bump anyone up given that there was one on the money there.

    At the moment I am going with the "yes" option for snowfall based on forum reports of snow falling at low elevations around 00-01h of 25th in Donegal ... I also think it will make no difference to the outcome in any way so it probably won't be an issue.

    I think that both Rikand's challenge and my chances to overtake Jpmarn are pretty much down the drain as neither of us scored high enough and Jpmarn has insurance to cover this month. Will wait for the actual confirmed scores to post the annual update but I may edit the previous summary of where people stood going into this month.

    For the IMT and the PRC, it was necessary to use the minimum progression rule. The MIN was marginal in that regard so I added 2 points to raw scores and then gave 1 or 2 points to people just outside normal scoring range.


  • #66
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well, I gather that the Monthly Summary won't be out today (as I suspected) so I can't quite confirm these scores, however I can place them in order (too late to edit the previous table) ...

    Provisional Scoring for December 2015


    FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Bonus, snow ___ TOTALS

    Rikand _____________ 23*_ 15 _ 00 _ 14* _ 10 ____ 2 _ 2 ___ 3 ______ 69
    lostinashford __ (-2) __ 22* _ 13 _ 04 _ 12* _ 06 ____ 1 _ 5 ___ 0 _ 63-2=61
    omicron ____________ 20*_ 10 _ 08 _ 10* _ 04 ____ 3 _ 4 ___ 0 ______ 59
    mickger844posts (-3) _ 21* _ 06 _ 18 _ 04* _ 02 ____ 5 _ 5 ___ 0 _ 61-3=58
    waterways ___ (-3) ___02* _ 18 _ 15 _ 12* _ 03 ____ 2 _ 4 ___ 3 _ 59-3=56
    sryanbruen _________ 16* _ 03 _ 11 _ 12* _ 02 ____ 5 _ 4 ___ 0 ______ 53
    MrSkinner __________ 16* _ 08 _ 08 _ 06* _ 05 ____ 5 _ 4 ___ 0 ______ 52
    200motels __________ 19* _ 11 _ 09 _ 03* _ 02 ____ 5 _ 2 ___ 0 ______ 51
    kindredspirit ________ 04* _ 15 _ 05 _ 11* _ 07 _____3 _ 5 ___ 0 ______ 50
    M.T. Cranium ________17* _ 09 _ 08 _ 06* _ 02 ____ 5 _ 2 ___ 0 ______ 49
    Lumi ______________ 09* _ 07 _ 10 _ 10* _ 05 ____ 4 _ 4 ___ 0 ______ 49
    Sunflower3 _________ 09* _ 05 _ 08 _ 10* _ 06 ____ 4 _ 5 ___ 0 ______ 47

    Con Sensus _________ 11* _ 09 _ 05 _ 10* _ 05 ____ 3 _ 4 ___ 0 ______ 47

    Pauldry ____________ 19* _ 11 _ 00 _ 07* _ 04 ____ 1 _ 1 ___ 3 ______ 46
    Schadenfreudia ______14* _ 05 _ 02 _ 10* _ 06 ____ 3 _ 5 ___ 0 ______ 45
    Bsal _______________13* _ 10 _ 11 _ 04* _ 00 ____ 3 _ 3 ___ 0 ______ 44
    jd _____ (-2) _______ 13* _ 12 _ 03 _ 09* _ 04 ____ 1 _ 3 ___ 0 _ 45-2=43
    Tae laidir ___________07* _ 10 _ 02 _ 12* _ 05 ____ 4 _ 3 ___ 0 ______ 43
    Joe Public ___ (-1) ___ 11* _ 06 _ 00 _ 13* _ 08 ____ 0 _ 1 ___ 3 _ 42-1=41
    Dasa29 ____________ 04* _ 00 _ 18 _ 11* _ 04 ____ 0 _ 1 ___ 3 ______ 41
    Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 11* _ 11 _ 09 _ 03* _ 02 ____ 1 _ 3 ___ 0 _ 40-3=37
    Dacogawa __________ 05* _ 06 _ 02 _ 13* _ 06 ____ 3 _ 2 ___ 0 ______ 37
    DOCARCH __________ 01* _ 11 _ 05 _ 10* _ 03 ____ 1 _ 2 ___ 3 ______ 36
    johnmac ___________ 07* _ 01 _ 06 _ 08* _ 05 ____ 1 _ 5 ___ 0 ______ 33
    Jpmarn ____________ 00* _ 04 _ 00 _ 14* _ 07 ____ 1 _ 2 ___ 3 ______ 31

    Norma L ___________ 02* _ 10 _ 01 _ 06*_ 04 _____ 2 _ 4 ___ 0 ______ 29

    Norma L (no min pr) _ 00 __ 05 _ 00 __ 00 _ 04 _____ 2 _ 4 ___ 0 ______ 15
    ________________________________________________

    The second score for Norma L is the raw score before minimum progression applied. But you all had the same boost that Norma L had from that rule so the direct comparison is to the first score. Your score minus that one is a measure of the skill of your forecast.

    As this month is pretty much set (I don't expect to find anything different on the MS but you never know) and also since many players (even Con Sensus) will be dropping their December score for their current second-lowest score in the best 10 of 12, I am going to post a provisional final table that may not need any further tweaking tomorrow. Look for that in about an hour.
    ___________________________________


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  • #67
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated annual 2015 scoring January to December
    (provisional but probably the final numbers to be confirmed 5 Jan)


    FORECASTER ______ Jan_ Feb_Mar_ Apr_ May_Jun_ Jul_ Aug_Sep_Oct _Nov _ Dec __ 2015 Total (rank) _________________________________________________________________________ best 10/12 (rank)

    Jpmarn ____________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _ 48 _ 52 _ 70 _ 80 _ 31 __ 744 (3) ____ 669 (1)

    Con Sensus ________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _ 69 _ 60 _ 79 _ 70 _ 47 __ 769 (1) ____ 667 (2)

    M.T. Cranium _______68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _ 61 _ 59 _ 67 _ 68 _ 49 __ 724 (6) ____ 661 (2)
    Lumi ______________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 78 _ 58 _ 74 _ 65 _ 49 __ 761 (1) ____ 659 (3)
    MrSkinner __________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _ 78 _ 57 _ 71 _ 70 _ 52 __ 705 (12) ___ 658 (4)
    Rikand ____________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _ 57 _ 57 _ 78 _ 49 _ 69 __ 745 (2) ____ 648 (5)

    sunflower3 _________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _ 72 _ 63 _ 67 _ 78 _ 47 __ 737 (4) ____ 646 (6)
    dasa29 ____________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _ 76 _ 64 _ 73 _ 61 _ 41 __ 727 (5) ____ 641 (7)
    mickger844posts ____ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _ 67 _ 69 _ 75 _ 55 _ 58 __ 708 (9t) ___ 635 (8)
    Schadenfreudia ______61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _ 75 _ 52 _ 73 _ 90 _ 45 __ 708 (9t) ___ 634 (9)
    rameire ___________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _ 79 _ 79 _ 80 _ 66 _ 37 __ 710 (8) ____ 633 (10)

    Tae laidir __________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _ 60 _ 61 _ 64 _ 75 _ 43 __ 708 (9t) ____ 632 (11)
    lostinashford _______ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 _ 61 _ 61 __ 680 (17t) ___ 628 (12)
    Bsal ______________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _ 55 _ 61 _ 77 _ 54 _ 44 __ 717 (7) _____ 625 (13)

    Norma L (*) ________ 62 _ 70 _ 66 _ 73 _ 44 _ 52 _ 66 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 47 _ 29 __ 695 (13) ____ 622 (14)

    DOCARCH __________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _ 52 _ 68 _ 83 _ 51 _ 36 __ 691 (15) ____ 619 (t14)
    dacogawa __________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _ 43 _ 46 _ 80 _ 80 _ 37 __ 656 (20) ____ 619 (t14)

    John mac __________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _ 55 _ 52 _ 75 _ 64 _ 33 __ 694 (14) ____ 611 (16)
    jd ________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _ 59 _ 44 _ 74 _ 63 _ 43 __ 680 (17t) ___ 606 (t17)
    omicron ____________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _ 55 _ 68 _ 71 _ 77 _ 59 __ 682 (16) ___ 606 (t17)
    Pauldry ____________ 51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _ 60 _ 67 _ 59 _ 58 _ 46 __ 696 (13) ___ 602 (19)
    200motels __________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _ 49 _ 71 _ 56 _ 63 _ 51 __ 628 (22) ___ 598 (20)

    Joe Public __________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _ 44 _ 43 _ 71 _ 66 _ 41 __ 674 (19) ___ 594 (21)
    kindredspirit ________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _ 56 _ --- _ 70 _ 56 _ 50 __ 631 (21) ___ 584 (22)
    Harps _____________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 69 _ --- _ --- __ 577 (23) ___ 577 (23)

    Norma L (no *) ______ 53 _ 70 _ 56 _ 65 _ 37 _ 41 _ 29 _ 55 _ 69 _ 51 _ 38 _ 15 __ 579 (23) ___ 535 (24)

    waterways __________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _ 63 _ 52 _ 38 _ --- _ 56 __ 520 (24) ___ 520 (24)

    _____________________________________________________________

    see August table for past entrants with fewer scores, or October to December tables for new entrants each month.

    Sryanbruen joined in October, and in the three months played, scores were a total of 14 behind Con Sensus which is about the pace of the 14th to 17th placed finishers (but too few really to make a totally valid comparison).

    So, it would appear that Jpmarn is our overall winner with your host in second (although Con Sensus also a second place finisher) and Lumi edged out MrSkinner for third.

    In the total score MTC award (which typically is nothing) the overall winner turns out to be Lumi (Con Sensus also a top score here) then in second was Rikand after sprinting up the tables with high score in December, to finishe one point ahead of Jpmarn in third in this category.

    I don't expect any big changes in this after confirming the December scores. For most of you, your December score was dropped from the 10/12 and a higher score was found in earlier months. So even if you get one or two more points it won't change the 10/12. As to the yes or no for snow in December, many of the "yes" people were in the lower half of the table, Rikand gained on that call.

    Hope you enjoyed the year, I think the table is fairly competitive with little drop from top to bottom this year. The people who had to use all their scores or had eleven still did quite well.

    Check back tomorrow to see if any changes are edited into this report, if not by Wednesday 6th, consider it final.


  • #68
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    All is confirmed in the MS. These are the sorry stats for the month of December:

    IMT 8.2 C

    MAX 16.0 C

    MIN --3.1 C

    PRC 266% of normal

    SUN (est) 65% of normal

    Dublin managed 92% of normal sunshine so quite a few readers may be surprised at that lower average but, for example, Cork was below 50% at a mere 24 hours when normal values for them are 1.7 hours a day.

    Anyway, all this means that the tables above this post are confirmed, and so it's now official:

    BOARDS AWARD (best 10 of 12 scores)

    1st -- Jpmarn (669)

    2nd -- MTC (661)

    3rd -- Lumi (659)

    (note that Con Sensus had 667 so double congrats to Jpmarn for managing to stay ahead of everyone's worst nemesis)


    and for the M.T.C. Award for total score, 12 forecasts (or however many you had)

    1st -- Lumi (761) ___ avg 63.4
    2nd -- Rikand (745) _ avg 62.1
    3rd -- Jpmarn (744) _ avg 62.0

    (note in this category Con Sensus finished ahead of all of us with 769 points for an average of 64.1).

    As I mentioned before, the scores are really not that spread out and it became a very competitive annual contest indeed, I think almost anyone could have won with a fully prescient forecast for December. With the mercy rule applied, Rikand did particularly well and almost made up a big gap.

    I had fun all year anyway, hope you did. There were some challenges, July for example was looking very warm then turned out chilly. November was also crazy warm but quite a few forecasts were attuned to that. December's rampage was just a bridge too far (people are still out looking for that bridge apparently).


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