December 2015 Boards forecast contest -- note entry deadline moved up to 0900h 1st

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (deg C) for the five stations used. The most recent (1981-2010) 30-year average is 5.4 C ... before that (1971-2000), 5.7 and before that (1961-90), 5.3.

2. Predict the maximum temperature at any Met-IE station (deg C)

3. Predict the minimum temperature at any Met-IE station (deg C)

4. Predict the precip (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of snow etc) as a percentage of normal values, for eleven stations around Ireland as per the Monthly Summary (met-IE).

5. Predict the sunshine hours as percentage of normal for the stations used in the Monthly Summary (met-IE).

6. Bonus, as usual for December, predict the min and max temperature during the 24-hour calendar day for 25 December at Dublin Airport. A second bonus question (for three possible double-bonus points) asks you to name a location where it may snow on the 25th (in the ROI). If you don't expect any snow on the date just leave this blank or say "none" or similar. If you do expect snow, take a punt on where, but points will be awarded on the basis of yes or no snow, if nobody has a correct location. If some do, then they will get 3 pts and all incorrect guesses other than "no snow" will get 2/3.

---

---

---- --

The deadline will change this month to Tuesday 1st Dec at 0900h, as the MAX could be on the 1st or 2nd. However, the penalty will only be 5 pts through to 1500h on the 2nd, which is the normal late penalty, and after that will be 10 pts for entries on 2nd to 0300h 3rd, and 5 pts higher each 12h after that.

I will keep this system for the rest of the 2016 contest year, so it's not quite a case of entering before the month begins to avoid the penalty, but you need to enter before mid-day on the first to avoid the penalty and that should make it difficult to enter with the MAX or MIN established on the first.

This will be my entry unless I change my mind before Tuesday morning.

M.T. Cranium ___ 6.5 __ 14.9 __ --4.5 __ 100 __ 110 __ 10.2, 5.0 _ no snow sorry

There's a separate thread open for your winter forecast, see the thread for the details.

Good luck, we may have a really close finish after November's expected tighter annual race. The four seasons award for 2014-15 will be made on 2nd December.

pauldry

Pauldry ___ 6.6 __ 15.1 __ -6.4 __ 101 __ 102 __ 6.2, -4 _ yes yes knock airport

Bsal

Bsal ___ 6.2 __ 15.0 __ -4.0 __ 95 __ 120 __ 8.5, 0.5 _ no snow

200motels

200motels ___ 6.6 __ 15.1 __ --4.4 __ 89 __ 112 __ 10.1, 4.9 _ no snow

omicron

omicron ___ 6.7 __ 15.0 __ -4.5 __ 110 __ 100 __ 9.0, 3.0 _ no snow

Schadenfreudia

Schad ___ 6.3 __ 14.5 __ -5.2 __ 110 __ 90 __ 8.9, 2.7_ no snow

kindredspirit

KS.....5.5.....15.5.....-4.8.....115.....85.....9...2...None.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___ 5.2 __ 15.1 __ -4.8 __ 110 __ 103 __ 6.2, -1.3 _ Knock

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ___ 6.4 __ 14.3 __ -4.2 __ 115 __ 111 __ 10.1, 2.9 _ no snow

dasa29

Dasa29 ___ 5.5 __ 13.0 __ -3.5 __ 115 __ 100 __ 4.0, -2.0 _ Mullingar

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___ 5.9 __ 15.0 __ -5.5 __ 125 __ 95 __ 9.1, -0.4 _ snowless

(Should have kept my mouth shut re rule change!)

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ___ 6.0 __ 14.5 __ -4.5 __ 110 __ 90 __ 10.0, 2.3 _ no snow:(

John mac

johnmac___ 5.9 __ 14.1 __ -4.7 __ 105__ 97 __ 7.1, 1.2 _ no snow

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___ 5.7 __ 14.6 __ -5.5 __ 130 __ 90 __ 8.6, -1.3 _ no snow

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_ 4.8__ 14.4 __ -8.0 __ 140__ 85__ 6.2, -1.8 _ Knock Airport

mrskinner

Skinner; 6.4.....14.8.....-4.5.....100.....95......11......1.1.....no snow!

Lumi

Lumi ___ 6.0 __ 14.7 __ -4.3 __ 110 __ 94 __ 9.3, 0.5 _ no snow

Rikand

The Arse has dropped out of my challenge. Need to make something happen

Rikand ___ 7.0 ____ 16.5 _____ -7.0 _____ 140 _____ 70 ______ 8.0 _____ -2.0 _____ Yes Ballyhaise

Joe Public

Joe Public ___ 6.1 __ 14.6 __ -6.9 __ 130 __ 80 __ 4.9, -3.9 _ Knock Airport

I didn't think I was going to get caught for penalties but now I know.

Tae laidir

Looking like another significantly warm 1st of the month!

lostinashford

lostinashford ___ 6.9 __ 15.3 __ -4.9 __ 118 __ 90 __ 7.2, 1.4 _ none

omicron

Shannon 13.9C at 12.00

Edit: Shannon 14.2 at 13.00

Up to 15.0 at 14.00

jd

jd ___ 6.2 __ 15.2 __ -5.0 __ 108 __ 98 __ 6.1,0 _ no snow

M.T. Cranium

I will adjust this late penalty to 1 point per 2 hours until reaching the 5 point level, as we get used to the new schedule, so don't worry it won't bite very much if you're already in. Most have now entered I think, will get a table together some time later.

rameire

Rameire ___ 6.1 __ 15.1 __ -4.4 __ 89 __ 110 __ 7.0, -0.5 _ no snow

again with the lateness.

waterways

waterways.....5.4.....15.8.....-3.8.....127.....87.....8....1....Casement

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ___ 6.8 __ 14.6 __ -3.5 __ 95 __ 110 __ 10.6, 2.0 _ no snow

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for December 2015


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ 25th Max Min __ snow

Rikand _____________ 7.0 _ 16.5 _ --7.0 _ 140 _ 070 ____ 8.0, --2.0 ___ B'haise
lostinashford __ (-2) __ 6.9 _ 15.3 _ --4.9 _ 118 _ 090 ____ 7.2 _ 1.4 ___ no snow
mickger844posts (-3) _ 6.8 _ 14.6 _ --3.5 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 10.6 _ 2.0 ___ no snow
omicron ____________ 6.7 _ 15.0 _ --4.5 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 9.0 _ 3.0 ___ no snow
200motels __________ 6.6 _ 15.1 _ --4.4 _ 089 _ 112 ___ 10.1 _ 4.9 ___ no snow
Pauldry ____________ 6.6 _ 15.1 _ --6.4 _ 101 _ 102 _____6.2, --4.0 ____ Knock
M.T. Cranium _______ 6.5 _ 14.9 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 110 ____10.2 _ 5.0 ___ no snow
MrSkinner __________ 6.4 _ 14.8 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ 1.1 ___ no snow
sryanbruen _________ 6.4 _ 14.3 _ --4.2 _ 115 _ 111 ____10.1 _ 2.9 ___ no snow
Schadenfreudia ______6.3 _ 14.5 _ --5.2 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 8.9 _ 2.7____ no snow
jd _____ (-2) _______ 6.2 _ 15.2 _ --5.0 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 6.1 _ 0.0 ___ no snow
Bsal _______________6.2 _ 15.0 _ --4.0 _ 095 _ 120 ____ 8.5 _ 0.5 ___ no snow

Con Sensus _________ 6.1 _ 14.9 _ --4.8 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 8.6 _ 1.0 ___ no snow

Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 6.1 _ 15.1 _ --4.4 _ 089 _ 110 ____ 7.0, --0.5 ___ no snow
Joe Public ___ (-1) ___ 6.1 _ 14.6 _ --6.9 _ 130 _ 080 ____ 4.9, --3.9 ___ Knock
Lumi ______________ 6.0 _ 14.7 _ --4.3 _ 110 _ 094 ____ 9.3 _ 0.5 ___ no snow
Sunflower3 _________ 6.0 _ 14.5 _ --4.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____10.0 _ 2.3 ___no snow
Tae laidir ___________5.9 _ 15.0 _ --5.5 _ 125 _ 095 _____9.1, --0.4 ___no snow
johnmac ___________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ --4.7 _ 105 _ 097 _____7.1 _ 1.2 ___ no snow
Dacogawa __________ 5.7 _ 14.6 _ --5.5 _ 130 _ 090 _____8.6, -1.3 ___ no snow
kindredspirit ________ 5.5 _ 15.5 _ --4.8 _ 115 _ 085 _____9.0 _ 2.0 ___ no snow
Dasa29 ____________ 5.5 _ 13.0 _ --3.5 _ 115 _ 100 _____4.0, --2.0 ___ Mullingar
waterways ___ (-3) __ 5.4 _ 15.8 _ --3.8 _ 127 _ 087 _____ 8.0 _ 1.0 ___ Casement

Norma L ___________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 8.0 _ 3.0 ___ no snow

DOCARCH __________ 5.2 _ 15.1 _ --4.8 _ 110 _ 103 _____ 6.2, --1.3 ___ Knock
Jpmarn ____________ 4.8 _ 14.4 _ --8.0 _ 140 _ 085 _____ 6.2, --1.8 ___ Knock

___________________________________

The table suggests a knock, knock joke of some kind.

Seven of our 24 forecasters chose the snowfall option for 25 Dec and of those, four went for Knock with other guesses being Ballyhaise, Casement and Mullingar.

Late penalties kicked in a bit early this month, realizing that some may not have known this until they came into the weather forum to post, I have softened the blow by reducing the first 18 hours to small increments ... we are now at the usual late deadline so will just apply the normal late penalties to any further entries. Consensus will change if we get any further entries.

Good luck, check the forum menu for the Winter Seasonal Forecast contest which will remain open for a day or two.

omicron

Max yesterday in Shannon down as 15.2 on met.ie.

pauldry

Knock knock
Whos there
Snow
Snow who
Snow point in being pessimistic about a white Xmas

M.T. Cranium

Please note:

Entries for winter seasonal forecast contest close tonight at 0300h (3 Dec).