December 2015 Boards forecast contest -- note entry deadline moved up to 0900h 1st

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (deg C) for the five stations used. The most recent (1981-2010) 30-year average is 5.4 C ... before that (1971-2000), 5.7 and before that (1961-90), 5.3.

2. Predict the maximum temperature at any Met-IE station (deg C)

3. Predict the minimum temperature at any Met-IE station (deg C)

4. Predict the precip (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of snow etc) as a percentage of normal values, for eleven stations around Ireland as per the Monthly Summary (met-IE).

5. Predict the sunshine hours as percentage of normal for the stations used in the Monthly Summary (met-IE).

6. Bonus, as usual for December, predict the min and max temperature during the 24-hour calendar day for 25 December at Dublin Airport. A second bonus question (for three possible double-bonus points) asks you to name a location where it may snow on the 25th (in the ROI). If you don't expect any snow on the date just leave this blank or say "none" or similar. If you do expect snow, take a punt on where, but points will be awarded on the basis of yes or no snow, if nobody has a correct location. If some do, then they will get 3 pts and all incorrect guesses other than "no snow" will get 2/3.

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The deadline will change this month to Tuesday 1st Dec at 0900h, as the MAX could be on the 1st or 2nd. However, the penalty will only be 5 pts through to 1500h on the 2nd, which is the normal late penalty, and after that will be 10 pts for entries on 2nd to 0300h 3rd, and 5 pts higher each 12h after that.

I will keep this system for the rest of the 2016 contest year, so it's not quite a case of entering before the month begins to avoid the penalty, but you need to enter before mid-day on the first to avoid the penalty and that should make it difficult to enter with the MAX or MIN established on the first.

This will be my entry unless I change my mind before Tuesday morning.

M.T. Cranium ___ 6.5 __ 14.9 __ --4.5 __ 100 __ 110 __ 10.2, 5.0 _ no snow sorry

There's a separate thread open for your winter forecast, see the thread for the details.

Good luck, we may have a really close finish after November's expected tighter annual race. The four seasons award for 2014-15 will be made on 2nd December.

pauldry

Pauldry ___ 6.6 __ 15.1 __ -6.4 __ 101 __ 102 __ 6.2, -4 _ yes yes knock airport

Bsal

Bsal ___ 6.2 __ 15.0 __ -4.0 __ 95 __ 120 __ 8.5, 0.5 _ no snow

200motels

200motels ___ 6.6 __ 15.1 __ --4.4 __ 89 __ 112 __ 10.1, 4.9 _ no snow

omicron

omicron ___ 6.7 __ 15.0 __ -4.5 __ 110 __ 100 __ 9.0, 3.0 _ no snow

Schadenfreudia

Schad ___ 6.3 __ 14.5 __ -5.2 __ 110 __ 90 __ 8.9, 2.7_ no snow

kindredspirit

KS.....5.5.....15.5.....-4.8.....115.....85.....9...2...None.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___ 5.2 __ 15.1 __ -4.8 __ 110 __ 103 __ 6.2, -1.3 _ Knock

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ___ 6.4 __ 14.3 __ -4.2 __ 115 __ 111 __ 10.1, 2.9 _ no snow

dasa29

Dasa29 ___ 5.5 __ 13.0 __ -3.5 __ 115 __ 100 __ 4.0, -2.0 _ Mullingar

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___ 5.9 __ 15.0 __ -5.5 __ 125 __ 95 __ 9.1, -0.4 _ snowless

(Should have kept my mouth shut re rule change!)

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ___ 6.0 __ 14.5 __ -4.5 __ 110 __ 90 __ 10.0, 2.3 _ no snow:(

John mac

johnmac___ 5.9 __ 14.1 __ -4.7 __ 105__ 97 __ 7.1, 1.2 _ no snow

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___ 5.7 __ 14.6 __ -5.5 __ 130 __ 90 __ 8.6, -1.3 _ no snow

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_ 4.8__ 14.4 __ -8.0 __ 140__ 85__ 6.2, -1.8 _ Knock Airport

mrskinner

Skinner; 6.4.....14.8.....-4.5.....100.....95......11......1.1.....no snow!

Lumi

Lumi ___ 6.0 __ 14.7 __ -4.3 __ 110 __ 94 __ 9.3, 0.5 _ no snow

Rikand

The Arse has dropped out of my challenge. Need to make something happen

Rikand ___ 7.0 ____ 16.5 _____ -7.0 _____ 140 _____ 70 ______ 8.0 _____ -2.0 _____ Yes Ballyhaise

Joe Public

Joe Public ___ 6.1 __ 14.6 __ -6.9 __ 130 __ 80 __ 4.9, -3.9 _ Knock Airport

I didn't think I was going to get caught for penalties but now I know.

Tae laidir

Looking like another significantly warm 1st of the month!

lostinashford

lostinashford ___ 6.9 __ 15.3 __ -4.9 __ 118 __ 90 __ 7.2, 1.4 _ none

omicron

Shannon 13.9C at 12.00

Edit: Shannon 14.2 at 13.00

Up to 15.0 at 14.00

jd

jd ___ 6.2 __ 15.2 __ -5.0 __ 108 __ 98 __ 6.1,0 _ no snow

M.T. Cranium

I will adjust this late penalty to 1 point per 2 hours until reaching the 5 point level, as we get used to the new schedule, so don't worry it won't bite very much if you're already in. Most have now entered I think, will get a table together some time later.

rameire

Rameire ___ 6.1 __ 15.1 __ -4.4 __ 89 __ 110 __ 7.0, -0.5 _ no snow

again with the lateness.

waterways

waterways.....5.4.....15.8.....-3.8.....127.....87.....8....1....Casement

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ___ 6.8 __ 14.6 __ -3.5 __ 95 __ 110 __ 10.6, 2.0 _ no snow

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for December 2015


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ 25th Max Min __ snow

Rikand _____________ 7.0 _ 16.5 _ --7.0 _ 140 _ 070 ____ 8.0, --2.0 ___ B'haise
lostinashford __ (-2) __ 6.9 _ 15.3 _ --4.9 _ 118 _ 090 ____ 7.2 _ 1.4 ___ no snow
mickger844posts (-3) _ 6.8 _ 14.6 _ --3.5 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 10.6 _ 2.0 ___ no snow
omicron ____________ 6.7 _ 15.0 _ --4.5 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 9.0 _ 3.0 ___ no snow
200motels __________ 6.6 _ 15.1 _ --4.4 _ 089 _ 112 ___ 10.1 _ 4.9 ___ no snow
Pauldry ____________ 6.6 _ 15.1 _ --6.4 _ 101 _ 102 _____6.2, --4.0 ____ Knock
M.T. Cranium _______ 6.5 _ 14.9 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 110 ____10.2 _ 5.0 ___ no snow
MrSkinner __________ 6.4 _ 14.8 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ 1.1 ___ no snow
sryanbruen _________ 6.4 _ 14.3 _ --4.2 _ 115 _ 111 ____10.1 _ 2.9 ___ no snow
Schadenfreudia ______6.3 _ 14.5 _ --5.2 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 8.9 _ 2.7____ no snow
jd _____ (-2) _______ 6.2 _ 15.2 _ --5.0 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 6.1 _ 0.0 ___ no snow
Bsal _______________6.2 _ 15.0 _ --4.0 _ 095 _ 120 ____ 8.5 _ 0.5 ___ no snow

Con Sensus _________ 6.1 _ 14.9 _ --4.8 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 8.6 _ 1.0 ___ no snow

Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 6.1 _ 15.1 _ --4.4 _ 089 _ 110 ____ 7.0, --0.5 ___ no snow
Joe Public ___ (-1) ___ 6.1 _ 14.6 _ --6.9 _ 130 _ 080 ____ 4.9, --3.9 ___ Knock
Lumi ______________ 6.0 _ 14.7 _ --4.3 _ 110 _ 094 ____ 9.3 _ 0.5 ___ no snow
Sunflower3 _________ 6.0 _ 14.5 _ --4.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____10.0 _ 2.3 ___no snow
Tae laidir ___________5.9 _ 15.0 _ --5.5 _ 125 _ 095 _____9.1, --0.4 ___no snow
johnmac ___________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ --4.7 _ 105 _ 097 _____7.1 _ 1.2 ___ no snow
Dacogawa __________ 5.7 _ 14.6 _ --5.5 _ 130 _ 090 _____8.6, -1.3 ___ no snow
kindredspirit ________ 5.5 _ 15.5 _ --4.8 _ 115 _ 085 _____9.0 _ 2.0 ___ no snow
Dasa29 ____________ 5.5 _ 13.0 _ --3.5 _ 115 _ 100 _____4.0, --2.0 ___ Mullingar
waterways ___ (-3) __ 5.4 _ 15.8 _ --3.8 _ 127 _ 087 _____ 8.0 _ 1.0 ___ Casement

Norma L ___________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 8.0 _ 3.0 ___ no snow

DOCARCH __________ 5.2 _ 15.1 _ --4.8 _ 110 _ 103 _____ 6.2, --1.3 ___ Knock
Jpmarn ____________ 4.8 _ 14.4 _ --8.0 _ 140 _ 085 _____ 6.2, --1.8 ___ Knock

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The table suggests a knock, knock joke of some kind.

Seven of our 24 forecasters chose the snowfall option for 25 Dec and of those, four went for Knock with other guesses being Ballyhaise, Casement and Mullingar.

Late penalties kicked in a bit early this month, realizing that some may not have known this until they came into the weather forum to post, I have softened the blow by reducing the first 18 hours to small increments ... we are now at the usual late deadline so will just apply the normal late penalties to any further entries. Consensus will change if we get any further entries.

Good luck, check the forum menu for the Winter Seasonal Forecast contest which will remain open for a day or two.

omicron

Max yesterday in Shannon down as 15.2 on met.ie.

pauldry

Knock knock
Whos there
Snow
Snow who
Snow point in being pessimistic about a white Xmas

M.T. Cranium

Please note:

Entries for winter seasonal forecast contest close tonight at 0300h (3 Dec).

M.T. Cranium

The IMT for 1st of December was 10.1 C. For Shannon it was over 13.6, about the normal mean temperature there in early June or mid to late September.

Rikand

Should have went for 200%+ for PRC

M.T. Cranium

Well, with the ever-popular minimum progression rule, you should do fine as you and Jpmarn have the highest predictions (140%), so you'll probably have 14/15 on that and everyone else will get a score in order of finish. But I agree that it will probably soar into that 200+ range looking at how much more is coming this week.

pauldry

Rainfall might be 140 percent ALREADY

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen ___ 6.4 __ 14.3 __ -4.2 __ 115 __ 111 __ 10.1, 2.9 _ no snow

Should of had it like 140% of rainfall

M.T. Cranium

This may surprise you a bit, after 5 days (and realizing there was a small amount of rain early 6th) we are below 70% of the monthly amounts so far, although that would represent something like 400% of normal for the first five days.

December is quite a wet month so nobody's that much into the above normal range yet, many of our eleven stations are around half or so.

If it doesn't get too wet Monday or Thursday, we may not require the minimum progression rule after all. But it does look good to be at 140% for now.

Jpmarn

I imagine that some of the stations has already the normal entire quota of rain for the month of December.

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT was 8.9 C with Shannon over 10 C.

PRC estimated 320% (Ballyhaise did not report 7th, took the rest of its data and estimated to include)

-- that PRC now represents a guaranteed 73% of monthly precip even if rest of month is dry, or 110% if rest of month is 50% normal (etc).

SUN has been largely absent, the average for six stations so far is 21% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT after eleven days was 8.1 (8.14) C and will likely edge up all week.

The PRC has now (with today's estimated average of 30 mm at the eleven stations) reached a point where it guarantees an above normal end value and would give an end result of 150% even if the next twenty days manage just half normal.

SUN might have improved a bit, I mean it was out on Friday in places.

Joe Public

The sun on Friday last must count for something! :-)

pauldry

Oh there IS a sun.

Must be a 1per cent of normal.

I was wondering if there was a way of incorpoating a wettest day date and station into monthly comp since it rains like fluck in this cuontry of ours.

IMT may become redundant soon and every month will have 13c imt

Tae laidir

Christmas Party on Thursday night.
Damn.....Missed it!

M.T. Cranium

Min of -3.1 C was recorded on Sunday at Markree (after the snow on Saturday, Ballyhaise also got down below -2.5). That could hold up now but maybe not.

Rikand

Britain set for possibly record high December temps on Thursday. With the high score I bet on, could we be on for the same here.

According to bbc weather this morning

M.T. Cranium

Looks like an exciting finish now. Good luck with the -7 MIN.

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Looks like an exciting finish now. Good luck with the -7 MIN.

Go big or go home as they say

M.T. Cranium

Updates after second week (8th to 14th) ...

IMT is on 7.8 C after the week averaged 6.74, northern stations were dragged down by the snow and frost on the weekend, Shannon has remained over 9 C throughout.
The IMT seems likely to drift up into the low 8's this coming week but may then head back down into the 7's -- at least we can hope so.

PRC is now at 273% after a week (all hands on deck this time) at 226%. With today's already known amounts likely maintaining that sort of average to the mid-point of the month, we can then say that the month would finish at 135% even if it went completely dry in the second half, or would reach 185% if precip were to be exactly normal rest of the month (which is roughly how the models appear).

Meanwhile, SUN has improved considerably after a week that managed 87% of the rather feeble December normals (these appear to be under 2h per day) and so now the month is sitting at 54% of normal. I think this will continue to improve slightly each week.

As already reported, the MAX so far is 15.2 (Shannon 1st) and the MIN is -3.1 (Markree 13th)

pauldry

Max to be threatened this week

Min in last week

Rikand

Come on the MAX!

M.T. Cranium

A new MAX happened overnight, Malin Head of all places had 16 C at 0400h, probably 15 point something but anyway, that may not be quite the peak yet.