Reasons for Cold Winters in Ireland?

sryanbruen · 16-09-2015 6:33pm #1

In this thread, discuss all the different scenarios / reasons / set-ups of why Ireland has cold Winters / Winter months (Example: March 2013 of what I mean by a Winter month)

weisses · 16-09-2015 7:26pm

Limiting influence of the gulf stream

Supercell · 16-09-2015 8:10pm

I'm forecasting a cooler than average winter simply because of the persistent cold pool in the North Atlantic, but as we had last winter that doesn't necessarily mean much snow. That said my sister who lives in Sligo got loads by all accounts.

FWVT · 16-09-2015 9:42pm

The cold pool in the north Atlantic is moving south and diminishing pretty quickly and may not be in another month if the current trend continues. I think forget about it as a forcing for our winter weather. Seas around us are actually warmer than normal now.

Supercell · 16-09-2015 9:54pm

Thanks FWVT, wasn't aware that it was shrinking maybe the artist formally known as Tristan, theory about it being caused by a cold North American winter has merit after all.

sryanbruen · 16-09-2015 10:22pm

Like during the Winters of 2009 / 10 and 2010 / 11 (except February), the jet stream was further south to the middle or southern half of France, thus disallowing any tropical air if ya know what I mean

sryanbruen · 16-09-2015 10:23pm

Long periods of high pressure could also contribute to cold Winters in Ireland. As normally, high daily sunshine and dry weather bring colder temperatures. For example, December 2010 and January 2011 were big ones as both were very cold and exceptionally sunny.

Oneiric 3 · 16-09-2015 11:11pm

FWVT wrote: »

The cold pool in the north Atlantic is moving south and diminishing pretty quickly and may not be in another month if the current trend continues. I think forget about it as a forcing for our winter weather. Seas around us are actually warmer than normal now.

If anything, The NOAA analysis is showing negative anomalies increasing again this week, albeit further south as you say. Can see a weakening of these anoms in the longer term though.

Nabber · 17-09-2015 1:24am

Lets talk jetstream lads.

We had warm waters in Nov 2010. It's air flow that I am interested in.

FWVT · 17-09-2015 5:30am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

If anything, The NOAA analysis is showing negative anomalies increasing again this week, albeit further south as you say. Can see a weakening of these anoms in the longer term though.

True. I'm wondering if the Unisys chart I posted takes the 7-day average, hence the discrepancy with your chart?

ninebeanrows · 17-09-2015 9:22am

Most forecasts going for slightly mild first half to winter, high pressure anomalies over central Europe. Lows brushing northeast through Ireland, occasional high pressure interludes. Active Atlantic tropical storms could increase the level of storminess at times this Autumn and could dismantle the current projected pattern. Howver, no tangible indicators for SIG cold through November, December and much of Jan.

sryanbruen · 17-09-2015 10:56am

Northerly and easterly winds bring cold Winters too.

sryanbruen · 17-09-2015 10:57am

Sudden stratospheric warming can 'cause cold Winters / months. The last time I heard that this happened was January 2013.

WheatenBriar · 17-09-2015 7:43pm

Supercell wrote: »

Thanks FWVT, wasn't aware that it was shrinking maybe the artist formally known as Tristan, theory about it being caused by a cold North American winter has merit after all.

Well,the Atlantic has been under pressure to push much weather to a drier than normal east coast which is leading me to think too if that continues, pushes from the east or north east will be easier this winter if you get me?

sryanbruen · 16-12-2015 3:29pm

Any other reasons discovered yet?

arctictree · 16-12-2015 4:32pm

weisses wrote: »

Limiting influence of the gulf stream

I'd like to pick this one apart. I keep hearing that Ireland has mild winters because of the Gulf Stream.

This is untrue. Its the prevailing south westerlies that give us our mild winters.

If the wind switched to NE, we would have snow from November to March. With or without the gulf stream.

coillsaille · 16-12-2015 5:33pm

arctictree wrote: »

I'd like to pick this one apart. I keep hearing that Ireland has mild winters because of the Gulf Stream.

This is untrue. Its the prevailing south westerlies that give us our mild winters.

If the wind switched to NE, we would have snow from November to March. With or without the gulf stream.

Thats true, the south westerlies bring mild moist air.
But I was always under the impression that without the warm ocean current we would be talking about a lot more than just snow, as in the sea at the coast freezing every winter, and such extremes.
I'm open to correction.

WheatenBriar · 16-12-2015 6:16pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Well,the Atlantic has been under pressure to push much weather to a drier than normal east coast which is leading me to think too if that continues, pushes from the east or north east will be easier this winter if you get me?

Well, I'd just like to declare at this point how shoite this opinion turned out...

konman · 16-12-2015 6:22pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Most forecasts going for slightly mild first half to winter, high pressure anomalies over central Europe. Lows brushing northeast through Ireland, occasional high pressure interludes. Active Atlantic tropical storms could increase the level of storminess at times this Autumn and could dismantle the current projected pattern. Howver, no tangible indicators for SIG cold through November, December and much of Jan.

Fairly accurate so far Weathercheck

goosey93 · 17-12-2015 12:13am

arctictree wrote: »

I'd like to pick this one apart. I keep hearing that Ireland has mild winters because of the Gulf Stream.

This is untrue. Its the prevailing south westerlies that give us our mild winters.

If the wind switched to NE, we would have snow from November to March. With or without the gulf stream.

Hi Artic Tree,

I see what you mean, but if the gulf stream were to "shut down" sea temperatures in the North Atlantic would be much lower resulting in a lot less modification to polar and artic air. This would result in much colder snowy outbreaks. We in ireland would no longer need sub -8 850 hpa for snow when winds are sourced from these northern areas. So a cold westerly would be much colder in such situations with no gulf stream.

Thanks

sryanbruen · 27-12-2015 1:05pm

Sudden stratospheric warming is potentially causing a cold spell in January

WheatenBriar · 27-12-2015 1:15pm

goosey93 wrote: »

Hi Artic Tree,

I see what you mean, but if the gulf stream were to "shut down" sea temperatures in the North Atlantic would be much lower resulting in a lot less modification to polar and artic air. This would result in much colder snowy outbreaks. We in ireland would no longer need sub -8 850 hpa for snow when winds are sourced from these northern areas. So a cold westerly would be much colder in such situations with no gulf stream.

Thanks

There would also be less westerlies owing probably to less energy in the Atlantic
We're talking much more widespread cold water to cause that of course making this year's cold blob look literally like a drop in the ocean

A quieter atlantic also means more of an open door to the east or north east also beinging more cold

RobertKK · 27-12-2015 3:44pm

I believe la nina conditions in the Pacific cause colder winters, and neutral conditions if in between a la nina and an el nino. There seems to be some sort of correlation in the past to us getting cold winters.

A lack of sunspots is also associated with cold winters in this part of the world, as it helps create a negative NAO which allows cold in from the east and north.
Our most recent very cold spell 5 years ago was helped by a lack of solar activity. This happened at the same time as the la nina, which brought those floods to Australia and a very cold winter to parts of Europe and North America.

Eugene Norman · 30-12-2015 5:28pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Sudden stratospheric warming is potentially causing a cold spell in January

Is that happening or are you assuming that it will happen?

sryanbruen · 30-12-2015 5:32pm

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Is that happening or are you assuming that it will happen?

happening?

Eugene Norman · 30-12-2015 6:33pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

happening?

The SSW. You phrased it like it has happened, rather than a condition needed for cold weather in Jan. Unless I read that wrong.

sryanbruen · 30-12-2015 6:44pm

Eugene Norman wrote: »

The SSW. You phrased it like it has happened, rather than a condition needed for cold weather in Jan. Unless I read that wrong.

You read it wrong. But update since then:

Sudden stratospheric warming could play in a cold spell that might happen in January - this last happened in 2013.

sryanbruen · 06-02-2016 3:12pm

Well this sudden stratospheric warming for February would wanna get a move on if it's happening...

sryanbruen · 02-08-2016 3:00pm

Supercell wrote: »

I'm forecasting a cooler than average winter simply because of the persistent cold pool in the North Atlantic, but as we had last winter that doesn't necessarily mean much snow. That said my sister who lives in Sligo got loads by all accounts.

Sadly your prediction of a cold Winter wasn't true

.

sryanbruen · 02-08-2016 3:02pm

So factors to consider for this Winter coming which I predicted to be Winter 1996/97-like which was rather cool (-0.2 to -0.8c below normal):

- La Nina (which is predicted to be a strong one)
- Low solar activity
- Lack of sunspots
- Possible -NAO (please be negative!!!)

youreadthat · 06-08-2016 11:05pm

Given the continued record breaking heat anomalies that have occurred the last few years I find it hard to believe Europe will be far away enough from warm air masses to achieve anything but an average at best winter.

Reasons for Cold Winters in Ireland?

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