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Dutch football

  • 28-07-2015 7:14am
    #1
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    In order to hammer some discipline in myself i have decided to make a log here for my Dutch football bets only.

    I ll only be using Unibet for this as these guys have the most markets on Dutch football and usually the best odds for it as well.

    I ll be doing bets on any cup/league just as long as there is Dutch club involvement.
    Will write a few words about the picks i take.

    Starting with €200 in the account and stakes will be 5% of the account balance.


«1345

Comments

  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Here we go.....

    Bet 1

    Rapid Wien - Ajax
    Bet: over 2,5
    Odds: 2.02

    Stake: €10

    Rapid scored loads of goals in preparation matches, usually against lower league teams.
    Ajax choose to prepare with playing only professional clubs and the results havent been great.

    9de0290f08b514d70a93def64ad1ba8b.png

    For Ajax Cillesen is a doubt, would make the bet a bit easier to come in if he is out indeed. 2nd GK Boer isnt bad but not at the same level at all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,303 Lasagna Diarra


    What's with the odd movements though? Ajax went from favorites @ 2.10 to outsiders @ 3.00+

    Are people influenced by Ajax' poor results in the friendly games?


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Dont know. Think there has been a certain degree of overestimating Ajax/underestimating Rapid.

    Cillesen who could miss the match, Younes who is definitely out may have some influence but that shouldnt bring in such big differences in odds.
    Also, Dutch teams have a rather bad record in CL qualifiers. Last 10 attempts delivered 9 failures to qualify for the group stages.
    Take in mind that doesnt necessarily mean they go out in this round, there is another qualification round after this.

    Dont know enough of rapid to take them to win but they do have a guy who scored 27 times (12 x FGS) in 33 matches last season up front.
    Beric is his name


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,102 ✭✭✭✭ callaway92


    I'll be following these.

    Thanks


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    inforfun wrote: »
    Here we go.....

    Bet 1

    Rapid Wien - Ajax
    Bet: over 2,5
    Odds: 2.02

    Stake: €10
    Bet 1 won. 1-2 after 48 minutes

    Balance €210,20


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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 2

    Hard time picking/choosing between the AZ and Vitesse matches so went for both in a double.

    2160bbf454e4b72ea5f29742ab609f39.png

    Both matches over 2 Asian GL @2.28

    Both AZ and Vitesse have lost quality in the summer.
    AZ's opponent istanbul was the best of the rest in Turkey last year and seem to enjoy scoring goals.
    Southampton went on tour in Holland and beat both Groningen and Feyenoord 3-0.
    Can see similar score tonight but didnt like handicap odds or Pelle AGS odds


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    AZ won 2-0. Void
    Southampton had their 3-0 in a row vs Dutch opposition. Win

    New Balance €215.14


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 3

    Dutch Super Cup (Johan Cruijff Schaal)

    Not a very adventurous bet but had a hard time to pick anything worth the odds and at the same time being confident about it.

    Pick: Over 3 Asian goals
    Odds: 1.70
    Stake: €10.76



    H2H and history of this cup point to at least 3 goals and both teams scoring.

    PSV however lost a lot of goals in Wijnaldum and Depay, we ll see how they do without them.
    Groningen might be a little stronger than last year and have in Bryan Linssen a former boards favourite while he was at Heracles.
    He is 5.4 on Unibet to score and is Groningen's top scorer in the preparation for this season.
    For PSV it is Locadia, who also starts but i can see him make away after 60 mins or so for Lestienne.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    PSV 3-0
    Void
    Balance €215.14

    Guardado missing a penalty in the last minute.
    Scored 3 or 4 in the Gold cup from the spot. Muppet


  • Registered Users Posts: 508 Mr. Green


    inforfun, small question.
    Today Ajax - Rapid. Ajax have a young team, Rapid in the second half of the match in Vienna looked more stable.
    Today a lot of money put on the victory of Ajax by a large factor 1.95.

    Your opinion about this game?


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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Ajax should have qualified already. 2-1 up against 10 men for 30 mins.

    Ajax not solid in defence and i am sure they will concede at least 1 goal.

    @1.95 looks nice for Ajax win but they dont need to win. 0-0 and 1-1 is good enough for them.
    Rapid also won at Red Bull Salzburg last weekend and have only lost 2 matches in 2015.
    They are a decent team.

    Just looked into away matches for Rapid. In 2014 and 2015 they only didnt score away from home in 1 competitive match.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 4

    CL qualifier

    Ajax - Rapid Wien

    Bet over 2,75 Asian GL
    Odds 1.96

    Too bad the odds of last week arent repeated but this should make a good chance too.
    I dont expect clean sheets tonight and 3 or 4 goals minimum.

    Edit:
    Saw a bet on Paddy Power i do like as well:
    Ajax DC/BTTS @2
    So an Ajax win or draw as long as Rapid score.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    2-2 after 74 minutes.
    Bet won

    Balance €225.47

    (wvl 2,5/1.5/0)


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,710 ✭✭✭ redzerdrog


    best of luck with it, I will definitely to following.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    7ae6316013f4ba5e95415ac9d87396a1.png

    I ll be starting a log again....
    First round of the eredivisie and the 4 matches i marked are off due to police strikes.
    And at least 3 of them i wanted to do something with.

    Anyway... so far only AZ - Ajax and Feyenoord - Utrecht will for sure go on.
    NEC - Excelsior shouldnt be a problem either as Excelsior's fan base are puppies and kittens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,303 Lasagna Diarra


    If you lose to St Etienne you don't deserve to be in the CL ;)


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    And if you give away a 2-0 lead away from home to Rapid who at 1-2 went down to 10, you really dont deserve it


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 5

    Istanbul BB - AZ Alkmaar

    Bet GL over 2,75
    Odds: 1.97
    Stake: €11.27

    Az bringing a 2-0 advantage to Istanbul. Seems a solid lead but they played 11v10 from the 12th minute last week so Istanbul couldnt attack as much as they would have liked and nick a goal.


    Edit:

    AZ won 2-1
    1/2 win, 1/2 void

    (wvl 3-2-0)
    Balance €230.99


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 6

    AZ - Ajax
    Over GL3
    Odds 2.12
    Stake € 11.55

    3rd year in a row this is the opening day fixture.
    Previous years 1-3 and 3-2.


    VOID again.
    Pretty annoying considering it was 0-3 at HT

    (wvl 3-3-0)


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 7

    Willem II - Vitesse

    Vitesse over 1,5 team goals @1.96
    Stake €11.55

    LOSS 1-1

    Balance €219.44


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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    86a687dea62b1e4d60001d6748b143ec.png

    Live on Unibet.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 8

    Utrecht 3-1, bet won

    wvl 4-3-1

    Balance €230.41


  • Registered Users Posts: 508 Mr. Green


    Hello inforfun!

    Say Twente financial problems, the team has sold all defenders and the best striker.
    In Twente came from some obscure players from Greece.
    In Groningen a great team that increased the players from PSV and Heracles.

    BUT
    Groningen win - 2.56.

    Draw - 3.55.
    Twente win - 2.83.
    I don't understand why so many give to win Groningen.

    Your opinion?


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Hi Mr. Green,

    Groningen lost a couple of important players, Chery being the most important one. Scored and assisted a lot last season.
    Also their defender Botteghin is with his head already at Feyenoord.

    Troubles with Twente is that they still can put a decent enough first 11 on the pitch at the moment. Ziyech being their top goal scorer in preparation.
    Groningen was pretty good against PSV in the dutch super cup and the score was too high for PSV,

    So i do indeed like the odds for Groningen who always are strong at home.
    But, they do have trouble scoring from what i saw against PSV and with Ziyech Twente has a guy who can score any time, anywhere.

    So i would favour Draw no bet more than the straight win.

    Dont see too many goals in this match. Both teams a bit impotent in attack. Twente has been playing a guy of 1,68 meter as centre forward in the preparation matches and i know Messi isnt tall either but this is Eghan, not Messi.
    Groningen missing their main assist provider will probably also depend too much on set pieces.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 9

    ADO - PSV > PSV win @1.53
    Heerenveen - De Graafschap > Heerenveen win @1.57

    Double @2.4

    Stake €11.52

    Ado in the last 20 ere divisie opening matches> W1 D4 L15
    Heerenveen are W9 D3 L1 at home to De Graafschap

    Players i expect to see on the score sheet tonight are De Jong for PSV and Te Vrede for Heerenveen.
    Just dont think the bookies are aware yet of Te Vrede being a Heerenveen player now.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun




    PSV didnt win.
    ADO goalie scoring the equaliser in the 95th minute....

    wvl 4-3-2

    Balance €218.89

    Bet 10

    Mitchel Te Vrede AGS @2.33 (Heerenveen - De Graafschap)
    Stake €10.94


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    inforfun wrote: »
    Bet 10

    Mitchel Te Vrede AGS @2.33 (Heerenveen - De Graafschap)
    Stake €10.94

    Winner
    Scored the 2-0

    Balance €233.44

    (wvl 5-3-2)


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 11

    Zwolle - Cambuur

    Lars Veldwijk AGS @2.8

    Stake €11.67

    Stupid, should have taken him earlier today when he was still 3.1
    Unibet void GS bets when they dont start so there was no need to wait for line ups.

    Veldwijk is Zwolle's top scorer i nthe preparation matches and more or less single handedly brought Excelsior to the ere divisie 2 years ago.
    Lost season at Forrest and now on loan at Zwolle.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Subbed 5 mins from time without scoring.
    Had a good chance at 2-0 and that miss cost me and Zwolle.

    wvl 5-3-3

    Balance €221,77


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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ inforfun


    Bet 12

    Fortuna - Achilles '29
    Bet: Fortuna over 1,5 team goals @ 1.95
    Stake €11,09

    Watched most of Achilles against Jong Ajax and how on earth they managed to win that one, they still dont know.
    Fortuna had a decent result away to Den Bosch 2-2


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