beef price tracker

CloughCasey1 · 02-08-2015 10:32PM

AP2014 wrote: »

If decent quality around €1200. Ya mightn't see it for them in a few months.

Why ya reckon that AP. Will there not be a scacerity in stores until next summer?

AP2014 · 02-08-2015 10:38PM

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

Why ya reckon that AP. Will there not be a scacerity in stores until next summer?

I hope so and maybe prices will hold or even improve. But prices seem crazy at the moment, they maybe scarce but some of these stores lads won't be finishing until late next summer or even autumn, could be a few burns.

I will be selling my stores November so hopefully prices hold till then. Feckin poor weather isn't helping them thrive. Good dose of pour on yesterday might help them.

blue5000 · 03-08-2015 12:01PM

Anybody get quotes for this week? This week will be a tester I think.

Cavanjack · 03-08-2015 12:07PM

blue5000 wrote: »

Anybody get quotes for this week? This week will be a tester I think.

O grade Bulls down 5c to 4.05

Farmer Pudsey · 03-08-2015 02:38PM

blue5000 wrote: »

Anybody get quotes for this week? This week will be a tester I think.

I agree if we hold the line this week there will be no serious price pull. Numbers are on our side. Bulls are scarce as most lads squeezed them last year. There is still at least 60K less cattle to kill between here and Christmas and it may be a lot higher as there will be fewer bulls in the system. Cows are the unknown quantity as will lads kill them straight out of the parlour as they dry them off. It is up to us as farmers to hold the line.

Willfarman · 03-08-2015 04:06PM

Bullocks. 4.20 is all anyone will be getting tomorrow and tomorrow they will be quoting 4.15. It's still very good for this time of year.
There may be better quotes for travelling.

The word is that 4.10 is what they have in the cross hairs. Anyone holding fit cattle is ill advised.

CloughCasey1 · 03-08-2015 05:00PM

Willfarman wrote: »

Bullocks. 4.20 is all anyone will be getting tomorrow and tomorrow they will be quoting 4.15. It's still very good for this time of year.
There may be better quotes for travelling.

The word is that 4.10 is what they have in the cross hairs. Anyone holding fit cattle is ill advised.

Are they testing the water a bit or do they have their own reserves built up. Doesn't make sense to me as with all the cattle that have gone up north lately also they should be a bigger demand and lower supply so by the rule of simple enough economics the price should at least hold if not rise. But with it being one big cartel I'm not surprised.

bogman_bass · 03-08-2015 05:57PM

Every year as long as I can remember cattle prices go south this time of year. Why do lads think this year will be different?

Farmer Pudsey · 03-08-2015 06:46PM

bogman_bass wrote: »

Every year as long as I can remember cattle prices go south this time of year. Why do lads think this year will be different?

It the numbers we have never entered an end of year where the factory's will struggle to keep the kill up to 30K/week. The kill has stayed strong all year long as factory's have wanted cattle to fill UK contracts. Cow kill is back 32K. Heifer kill is on par with last year. Young Bull kill is back 40K while steer kill is up 40K.

At the start of the year we had between 100-140K less cattle ( cattle in the 18-30 month age group) to kill this year compared to last year. IMO there is at least 60K less cattle if not more than that to kill from now to Christmas. Last autumn a lot of young (sub 24 month) cattle were killed this may not happen this year with a strong store price.

At present processors are in a bind. Big finishers are not filling sheds. I have heard it on the grapevine that a lot of regular finishers have empty sheds that usually finish cattle out of sheds. These are looking for price guarantee for cattle this winter as store prices are too strong.

It is quite simply the numbers are on the farmers side. We could say the same about the Hurling and football why hold an All Ireland championship as Kilkenny will win the hurling and Kerry or Dublin the football but things do not always happen like that.

Willfarman · 03-08-2015 07:26PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

It the numbers we have never entered an end of year where the factory's will struggle to keep the kill up to 30K/week. The kill has stayed strong all year long as factory's have wanted cattle to fill UK contracts. Cow kill is back 32K. Heifer kill is on par with last year. Young Bull kill is back 40K while steer kill is up 40K.

At the start of the year we had between 100-140K less cattle ( cattle in the 18-30 month age group) to kill this year compared to last year. IMO there is at least 60K less cattle if not more than that to kill from now to Christmas. Last autumn a lot of young (sub 24 month) cattle were killed this may not happen this year with a strong store price.

At present processors are in a bind. Big finishers are not filling sheds. I have heard it on the grapevine that a lot of regular finishers have empty sheds that usually finish cattle out of sheds. These are looking for price guarantee for cattle this winter as store prices are too strong.

It is quite simply the numbers are on the farmers side. We could say the same about the Hurling and football why hold an All Ireland championship as Kilkenny will win the hurling and Kerry or Dublin the football but things do not always happen like that.

You were busy counting the nations cattle 12 months ago too as I recall.

Farrell · 03-08-2015 07:46PM

Willfarman wrote: »

You were busy counting the nations cattle 12 months ago too as I recall.

How would the figures compare to 2012/2013?
Also the stg difference is bringing extra buyers which will reduce numbers even more

Farmer Pudsey · 03-08-2015 08:09PM

I am not saying that a price pull will not happen but on the numbers it should not last long. Reality it is in the interest of processors and those that have sold finished cattle that a price pull happens. This will force down the price of stores (maybe).

However lads that hold cattle will be rewarded I think in the short term. Last year if I had sold semi finished Fresians in August I have got a base of 3.4/kg I think I got a base of over 4/kg coming up to Christmass. I do not thing any price pull will last this year. I think a sudden flush of cattle going into factory's will mean a bigger shortage from late September on. Last year it was lads killing unfinished young cattle in October/November that caused the price collapse to hold as long as it did.

AP2014 · 03-08-2015 08:13PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I am not saying that a price pull will not happen but on the numbers it should not last long. Reality it is in the interest of processors and those that have sold finished cattle that a price pull happens. This will force down the price of stores (maybe).

However lads that hold cattle will be rewarded I think in the short term. Last year if I had sold semi finished Fresians in August I have got a base of 3.4/kg I think I got a base of over 4/kg coming up to Christmass. I do not thing any price pull will last this year. I think a sudden flush of cattle going into factory's will mean a bigger shortage from late September on. Last year it was lads killing unfinished young cattle in October/November that caused the price collapse to hold as long as it did.

How to you see store prices late October early November? Surely will be hard to match current prices.

Willfarman · 03-08-2015 08:22PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I am not saying that a price pull will not happen but on the numbers it should not last long. Reality it is in the interest of processors and those that have sold finished cattle that a price pull happens. This will force down the price of stores (maybe).

However lads that hold cattle will be rewarded I think in the short term. Last year if I had sold semi finished Fresians in August I have got a base of 3.4/kg I think I got a base of over 4/kg coming up to Christmass. I do not thing any price pull will last this year. I think a sudden flush of cattle going into factory's will mean a bigger shortage from late September on. Last year it was lads killing unfinished young cattle in October/November that caused the price collapse to hold as long as it did.

Holding fit cattle is stupid. Anyone who held from last week will be running hard to stand still.

Cassidy2 · 03-08-2015 08:44PM

It's quite simple .money ðŸ’µ will get scarce before cattle

CloughCasey1 · 03-08-2015 08:45PM

Cassidy2 wrote: »

It's quite simple .money ðŸ’µ will get scarce before cattle

Hello prophet of doom. Was wondering where you were gone.

mf240 · 03-08-2015 08:59PM

Lots of cheap weight going onto cattle at the moment. I cant see any long term pull being achieved. There really only trying to put a stop to the price rise. Attack is the best form of defence.

Dont here them talking about the heavy cattle and the steaks being to big for the trays this year???

Willfarman · 03-08-2015 09:03PM

In case it has escaped your attention there has been a successful price pull. 10 cent over the last 2 weeks. An another cut to come.. But thankfully we are falling only a little from a very dizzy height. Hope fully we won't see sub 4.00 this year.

Cassidy2 · 03-08-2015 09:16PM

You can call me what you like .but it is a fact and has always been.but if the weather changes so will the price.

CloughCasey1 · 03-08-2015 09:43PM

mf240 wrote: »

Lots of cheap weight going onto cattle at the moment. I cant see any long term pull being achieved. There really only trying to put a stop to the price rise. Attack is the best form of defence.

Dont here them talking about the heavy cattle and the steaks being to big for the trays this year???

Nope. Anything goes with weight age etc etc. Last yr they would screw ya on over 30mts this yr they will they will let in a few over 36mts in a batch with a wink and a nod and no big penalties. They will try cause a scare and lads might send off cattle now but as my elderly neighbour said when his cows broke into the silage bales "tis on themselves their doing it" as if there is a big push now with cattle and as FP says cattle are scarce then prices will rise pretty damn quick again.

AP2014 · 03-08-2015 09:44PM

Cassidy2 wrote: »

You can call me what you like .but it is a fact and has always been.but if the weather changes so will the price.

DAS and SFP cheques coming up, also will be a handy budget in October before election. Lads will be getting GLAS approval next month or two as well. Hopefully be plenty of money around the sales rings.

Willfarman · 05-08-2015 08:52AM

AP2014 wrote: »

DAS and SFP cheques coming up, also will be a handy budget in October before election. Lads will be getting GLAS approval next month or two as well. Hopefully be plenty of money around the sales rings.

14 birthday bullocks are genuinely scarce this year.
Friesians have fallen off the cliff from the ridiculous height they were at because the were the most over valued.

Middle of the road stuff and the nice quality stuff has changed very little despite a few big sales locally in the last few weeks.

CloughCasey1 · 05-08-2015 09:00AM

Willfarman wrote: »

14 birthday bullocks are genuinely scarce this year.
Friesians have fallen off the cliff from the ridiculous height they were at because the were the most over valued.

Middle of the road stuff and the nice quality stuff has changed very little despite a few big sales locally in the last few weeks.

And as always good stock holds its own. There were lads giving €2 per kg for FR in the marts. I'd say it nearly had FP thinking of buying continentals as there was more value to be had. 400 kg FR cattle replacements should be no more than 1.50per kg.

Hill Bill · 05-08-2015 09:49AM

Any quotes for underage bullocks? Have 10 to go, can't hold them much longer.

Dunedin · 05-08-2015 10:17AM

Hill Bill wrote: »

Any quotes for underage bullocks? Have 10 to go, can't hold them much longer.

4.15 this week

Willfarman · 05-08-2015 10:38AM

Hill Bill wrote: »

Any quotes for underage bullocks? Have 10 to go, can't hold them much longer.

Hold out and listen to the experts here..They'll be 4.10 next week!!:D. If you really hold out you might get 4.00!

darragh_haven · 05-08-2015 02:34PM

Hill Bill wrote: »

Any quotes for underage bullocks? Have 10 to go, can't hold them much longer.

Got €4.25 base price on Tuesday. 2 of them over age but ignored. Mostly R's but probably 3 U's on the Grid

Farmer Pudsey · 05-08-2015 02:55PM

Talking to an agent, his words, ''weather will play a big part over next couple weeks, they are not being flooded with cattle just getting enough and not a lot backed up yet'', and he continued, '' getting too many cattle will be as bad as too little for them as if kill remains like last years kill cattle will be very scarce by September''.

tim04750 · 05-08-2015 02:55PM

Willfarman wrote: »

In case it has escaped your attention there has been a successful price pull. 10 cent over the last 2 weeks. An another cut to come.. But thankfully we are falling only a little from a very dizzy height. Hope fully we won't see sub 4.00 this year.

Not rightly a dizzy height when you take the change in sterling valuation into account , roughly 15% increase in value against the euro from this time last year
Base 12 months ago was 3.70-3.75 + 15% = 4.25- 4.30

orm0nd · 05-08-2015 03:42PM

heard larry has close on 30k cattle booked into b&b, would that be possible or just bulls1th high stool talk ?

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