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Greece Debt Crisis - Après Oxi

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭professore


    Inquitus wrote: »
    The worst option is Grexit, they will be immeasurably worse off if that happens, far more so than if they took the current deal on the table. They don't have an economy suited to a return to the Drachma nor do they have anywhere near the required amount of Foreign currency reserves to successfully launch the New Drachma.

    If Greece Exits the euro the Austerity, and GDP reduction they have seen to date will look like boomtimes in comparison to the adjustment Syriza will immediately be required to make in order to balance revenues with expenditure.

    They currently run a primary surplus? Plus they will instantly become more competitive. I think it's a win-win for them. Short term pain for medium term gain as opposed to long term pain for no gain whatsoever.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73 ✭✭Crosswind


    That's one MP. There are 17 MPs for To Potami. A dose of realism on the economy would help Syriza - rather than allowing its position to be echoed and amplified by ANEL, maybe it would have been better to allow its position to be modified and challenged by a party with a more moderate approach. It surely couldn't have been worse than the current outcome.

    As i mentioned, their leader and party are funded by one of the oligarchs. No way of dealing with them.
    As for realism? The basic wage in Greece is down to 450/mth. There are numerous reports, especially in the islands, that people work for food and shelter only. Until last week thousands of families couldn't afford electricity and it was offered to them.
    You think you had recession in Ireland, but trust me it's nothing compared to what happened and happening in Greece.

    And the thing that pisses me off the most? Germany defaulted on its post WW1 loans, got Marshall plan after WW2, its economy was boosted from immigrants working there in the post WW2 era and now they're sitting on their high throne pointing the finger to whoever has economic issues but on the other hand they gave asylum to Christoforakos (the person behind Siemens payouts in Greece) and they won't give him to Greece to stand in court. Furthermore, when Tsipras asked for the arms deals to be lowered for this year, he got a stern No. From the same people that got paid in advance for six submarines, delivered only one and even this one malfunctions. Go figure...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,247 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    Akrasia wrote: »
    What about the economic ideology that led to global banking crash in 2008?
    You should start a thread about that.
    standing up to the ECB and for not wanting to repay the debts
    You still don't understand that the ECB own about 9% of Greece's national debt.

    And we are in agreement, Greece shouldn't repay the ECB.
    It should default leave the EU & start again.
    Then we'll see what Syriza are all about?
    Prosperity or making Greece into Albania v2.0


  • Posts: 14,242 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.
    I'm not trying to drum up pity for Greeks. Nobody in Greece cares about what boards.ie users think. Pity is irrelevant to the facts, and the fact is that the Greek cross-currency swaps were not only legal, they were explicitly acceptable under Eurostat rules [pp. 201--202; ESA95].

    Presumably you don't blame Goldman Sachs for the transaction. They were breaking no rules; neither were Greece.

    This is important because the whole exchange on culpability began by one poster asking a very sensible question: To paraphrase, he asked, 'If Greece were playing by the rules, which turn out to be unwise, or even harmful (like much of the euro architecture), is it Greece who should bear all the costs of the subsequent fallout?'

    That's a legitimate question, it is critical to the Greek argument for debt relief, and it is the question that plenty of idealogues in this thread would rather evade.

    Because the Eurozone has to take some blame here. Not only was the Eurozone weakly designed, not only did it accept the use of derivatives to 'hide' fiscal deficits, it actively ignored deficits when they did arise on the statistics they had before them.

    As late as 2007, the European Commission actually abrogated an Excessive Deficit Procedure on Greece in 2007, on the Commission's own initiative!

    The excessive and emotional outbursts against Tspiras and even the Greek people are perhaps not solely the product of genuine frustration at Greek inertia and obstinacy. Perhaps this multi-lingual rally of Single European Outrage is also intended to distract from the embarrassing realization that the Eurozone and the Commission have failed quite spectacularly in their fumbling attempts at currency union.

    Insofar as this has aggravated the Greek situation, it is fair that both sides share in the costs.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,019 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,091 ✭✭✭marmurr1916


    Crosswind wrote: »
    As i mentioned, their leader and party are funded by one of the oligarchs. No way of dealing with them.

    And Syriza's just sacked finance minister was a spoilt rich kid with a millionaire daddy - is there some point to this?
    Crosswind wrote: »
    As for realism? The basic wage in Greece is down to 450/mth. There are numerous reports, especially in the islands, that people work for food and shelter only. Until last week thousands of families couldn't afford electricity and it was offered to them.
    You think you had recession in Ireland, but trust me it's nothing compared to what happened and happening in Greece.

    That's the minimum wage, not the wage most people are on. Greece's recession is being fuelled by the stubborn refusal of its government to implement reforms (not cutbacks, not tax rises - reforms) which would make it easier for businesses to operate.
    Crosswind wrote: »
    And the thing that pisses me off the most? Germany defaulted on its post WW1 loans, got Marshall plan after WW2, its economy was boosted from immigrants working there in the post WW2 era and now they're sitting on their high throne pointing the finger to whoever has economic issues but on the other hand they gave asylum to Christoforakos (the person behind Siemens payouts in Greece) and they won't give him to Greece to stand in court. Furthermore, when Tsipras asked for the arms deals to be lowered for this year, he got a stern No. From the same people that got paid in advance for six submarines, delivered only one and even this one malfunctions. Go figure...

    Please read:

    http://www.greekdefaultwatch.com/2015/07/dont-blame-debt-for-austerity-in-greece.html

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/07/08/2133806/lets-talk-about-the-1953-london-agreement-on-german-external-debts/

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/pikettys-argument-about-greeces-debt-has-three-massive-holes-in-it-2015-7#ixzz3fINjNG25

    And maybe, just maybe, acknoweldge the fact that Greece got a 53.5% discount on its debts to private lenders with the help of the other EZ countries and the Troika, including Germany.

    And maybe, just maybe, acknowledge the fact that Greece was promised debt relief in 2012 in return for successfully completing the second bailout programme, the one that could have been completed on June 30 if the current Greek government had decided to do so.

    Not only would that programme have ended if Syriza/ANEL had played ball, but it would have led to debt relief for Greece, starting this month!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 164 ✭✭Thomas_.


    ...

    And Vladimir Putin isn't giving Greece any special treatment:

    Maybe just not yet. He might be waiting until they are totally down to pick them up.

    Greece is not having a good week.

    Well, they have brought it onto themselves, haven´t they?

    Having watched the Video extracts on the BBC World News Website about Tsipras´ time in the EP, he had to face the expressed Anger by some of the MEPs, but - no surprise - he got the back up from those who like to bring the EU down altogther and better yesterday than tomorrow.

    The face of Martin Schulz had a clear disappointment on display. How can Tsipras be trusted and believed anymore after all that went down the road. I wouldn´t buy a used car from that man. I think that there are plenty of people who think that Tsipras was kidding them all the way since he became PM of Greece.

    Even Juncker has admitted that the Eurozone is prepared for a Grexit, despite that he doesn´t like to see that, but if all fails, and I rather expect that it will fail because the Greeks couldn´t come up with new proposals in the last days so it´s just as usual playing for time and for nothing, it will go down to the Grexit sooner or later.


  • Posts: 14,242 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    micosoft wrote: »
    Austerity has worked in Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy.
    It depends on what marker you're looking at. Public debt: GDP has increased in all of those countries.

    If you mean that the business environment has improved because incomes have fallen, that revenues are up because taxes have increased, and that Ireland is a net exporter because the foregoing means we can't import as much anyway, then yes, things have improved, but for many people it's only a recovery on paper.

    Of course there are major benefits for a small number of people, e.g. firms, and individuals going off benefits. Today's FT has even been so bold as to exclaim that for Ireland, "the crisis is officially over".

    Austerity has set out to achieve many of the things that it set out to achieve, such as lower incomes, falling prices, and higher exports. It is important that we distinguish this from a more generalised prosperity, and it is important that we don't assume that other EA members are simply bigger and sunnier versions of Ireland.

    So to sum up, austerity met many of its goals in Ireland, and now a deeper programme of economic prosperity should commence. The same policies have not, and will not, be capable of simply being transplanted to economies suffering from deeper structural problems and lower potential growth.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 977 ✭✭✭Cosmo K


    Crosswind wrote: »

    And the thing that pisses me off the most? Germany defaulted on its post WW1 loans...Go figure...

    http://qz.com/290183/in-2014-countries-are-still-paying-off-debt-from-world-war-one/

    I'm German. And yes, I think, that part of the debt should be written off! But, Germany is only one creditor. The German economy could cope with the loss of, let's say 45bn. But what about France and Spain? Why should they pay for decades of economic mismanagement in Greece?


    And by the way, I'm starting to find the anti German rhetoric from the left just a little bit annoying....



    I grew up in "socialist" East Germany, and by God, I wish I could send some of the European left back in time on a little holiday to East Germany in 1983.....preferably on a one way ticket....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭swampgas


    It depends on what marker you're looking at. Public debt: GDP has increased in all of those countries.

    If you mean that the business environment has improved because incomes have fallen, that revenues are up because taxes have increased, and that Ireland is a net exporter because the foregoing means we can't import as much anyway, then yes, things have improved, but for many people it's only a recovery on paper.

    Of course there are major benefits for a small number of people, e.g. firms, and individuals going off benefits. Today's FT has even been so bold as to exclaim that for Ireland, "the crisis is officially over".

    Austerity has set out to achieve many of the things that it set out to achieve, such as lower incomes, falling prices, and higher exports. It is important that we distinguish this from a more generalised prosperity, and it is important that we don't assume that other EA members are simply bigger and sunnier versions of Ireland.

    Depends on your reference point, doesn't it? If we're comparing with unsustainable bubble-level incomes and taxes, then yes indeed we are not doing as well as we were previously. However if you look at what an instant correction of the deficit would have done, we're doing very well indeed.

    I feel that many people became accustomed to an unsustainable and falsely boosted standard of living during the Celtic Tiger years, and now consider "Austerity" to have failed simply because they haven't seen a return to that same level since.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Crosswind wrote: »
    Reality and even statistics prove otherwise

    What reality and what statistics exactly?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73 ✭✭Crosswind


    And Syriza's just sacked finance minister was a spoilt rich kid with a millionaire daddy - is there some point to this?

    Yes, how will you do a reform when the one who funds you doesn't want them? Or would he accept to pay for the TV and radio frequencies that noone paid for ever?
    That's the minimum wage, not the wage most people are on. Greece's recession is being fuelled by the stubborn refusal of its government to implement reforms (not cutbacks, not tax rises - reforms) which would make it easier for businesses to operate.


    http://greece.greekreporter.com/files/Greece-letter-to-eurogroup-PDF.pdf
    These were declined months ago.



    Ehmm...private lenders were also the Greek pension funds and many Greek people. This achieved nothing, just made things worse.
    And maybe, just maybe, acknowledge the fact that Greece was promised debt relief in 2012 in return for successfully completing the second bailout programme, the one that could have been completed on June 30 if the current Greek government had decided to do so.

    Not only would that programme have ended if Syriza/ANEL had played ball, but it would have led to debt relief for Greece, starting this month!

    A few pages back someone posted some stats showing that things took a turn for the worse since Q3 2014. Syriza/ANEL got the reigns in Feb 2015.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73 ✭✭Crosswind


    Cosmo K wrote: »
    http://qz.com/290183/in-2014-countries-are-still-paying-off-debt-from-world-war-one/

    I'm German. And yes, I think, that part of the debt should be written off! But, Germany is only one creditor. The German economy could cope with the loss of, let's say 45bn. But what about France and Spain? Why should they pay for decades of economic mismanagement in Greece?


    And by the way, I'm starting to find the anti German rhetoric from the left just a little bit annoying....



    I grew up in "socialist" East Germany, and by God, I wish I could send some of the European left back in time on a little holiday to East Germany in 1983.....preferably on a one way ticket....

    First of all, i'm not "left", also I have no anti German rhetoric and unlike most people in this thread, i don't generalize. Besides, i can't say anything bad about the nation that gave Bratwurst to the rest of the world :P
    I just point out that the only way for a country to grow when is in so much trouble is:
    A) Give it some time to recover and then start asking for your payments back after a few years let's say
    B) Tie the debt to growth
    C) Let it default

    Creditors do nothing of the above despite the fact they admitted their plan failed. You just can't give what you don't have. Simples.


  • Posts: 14,242 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    swampgas wrote: »
    Depends on your reference point, doesn't it? If we're comparing with unsustainable bubble-level incomes and taxes, then yes indeed we are not doing as well as we were previously. However if you look at what an instant correction of the deficit would have done, we're doing very well indeed.
    Instant correction of the deficit? I only vaguely remember that wild notion. It was the most preposterous ballyhoo in Irish economic history for years. Worse than the bank guarantee. Worse than bank recapitalisations. Worse, even, than Fianna Fail's 2007 budget giveaway. It was uniquely wild.

    Anti-austerity does not mean overnight destruction of the fiscal deficit.

    Anti-austerity proposals in the Eurozone context are a series of measures that are politically and legally impossible, such as eurobonds, sovereign debt restructuring via the central bank channel, or even monetary financing of a stimulus, like in the USA. They're all interesting proposals, but none of them are available for political reasons.

    I accept that the Government of Ireland had no option but to commit itself to an austerity programme, and that it has met most of its targets in that regard, however weak the Irish economy remains.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,019 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,913 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    professore wrote: »
    They currently run a primary surplus? Plus they will instantly become more competitive. I think it's a win-win for them. Short term pain for medium term gain as opposed to long term pain for no gain whatsoever.

    Not a hope I'm afraid..

    Guess it depends on the definition of Short/Medium/Long term, but Greece would be unlikely to see any real positives from a Grexit for at least 5 years if not longer...

    They don't run a primary surplus, not even close...They did, for a while under the last government, but that's all gone since Syriza took office.

    They have no foreign currency reserves so can't buy anything they need to import - Which is a lot , they import almost 2X what they export.

    If they default , Syriza will have no option but to nationalise the banks and seize all the assets , so all regular Greeks will lose every last penny they have.

    They would go through an extended period of massive inflation as the Drachma would be in freefall for a very long time..

    Tourism would be an upside, but not this year, as can be seen by the huge levels of cancellations being reported in the media.

    Their Agri-business might also benefit but again it's likely that it would require significant investment to be able to really leverage the exchange rates etc. - Where is that money going to come from??


  • Posts: 14,242 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.
    Then the Eurostat officially sanctioned unethical behaviour, because if you read p.202 of the report I linked to, it is there in black and white. Cross-currency swaps were a legitimate way of hiding the deficit. Eurostat actually wrote a clarification of this in simpler language, if it wasn't already obvious.

    You haven't responded to my point about the Commission subsequently abrogating the EDP for Greece as late as 2007, even when the stats indicated Greece was not compliant.

    Are you denying shared responsibility for the Greek crisis? You think it's all one sided?


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,277 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    ...Public debt: GDP has increased in all of those countries....

    And is now decreasing in Ireland.
    ...incomes have fallen....

    Not really. Remained steady over past five years.
    ....the foregoing means we can't import as much anyway...

    Incorrect, imports are trending upwards.
    ...falling prices....

    Nope, graph is going the other way.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Crosswind wrote: »
    First of all, i'm not "left", also I have no anti German rhetoric and unlike most people in this thread, i don't generalize. Besides, i can't say anything bad about the nation that gave Bratwurst to the rest of the world :P
    I just point out that the only way for a country to grow when is in so much trouble is:
    A) Give it some time to recover and then start asking for your payments back after a few years let's say
    B) Tie the debt to growth
    C) Let it default

    Creditors do nothing of the above despite the fact they admitted their plan failed. You just can't give what you don't have. Simples.

    So you're saying that Greece should be able to borrow money and only pay it back when it suits them? That's......interesting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73 ✭✭Crosswind


    molloyjh wrote: »
    So you're saying that Greece should be able to borrow money and only pay it back when it suits them? That's......interesting.

    Very interesting and definitely not what i said.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,019 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,396 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Crosswind wrote: »
    Very interesting and definitely not what i said.
    I mean... A is kind of saying just that isn't it? Go to your bank and try that line and see how they react!


  • Posts: 14,242 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And is now decreasing in Ireland.



    Not really. Remained steady over past five years.



    Incorrect, imports are trending upwards.



    Nope, graph is going the other way.
    Nice try. If 2010 is your starting point then yes, it's no surprise to see little change, or mild improvement in incomes and imports. Sadly for your attempt at disproving the internal devaluation, the economic crisis began in Ireland in 2008. Austerity plans had begun being formulated as early as the Summer of 2008.

    If you're denying that incomes and imports fell, and that the real burden of debt increased, then you're simply denying that an internal devaluation took place. That's akin to denying that austerity occurred. There's no need to take such a bizarre course.

    Austerity happened, and it had to happen, and it met most of its objectives. The real burden of debt did increase, though; because incomes fell and demand was demolished. These are now recovering, but serious challenges remain in the Irish economy.


  • Posts: 14,242 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.
    Of course not all the responsibility, but none? OK. Even an ECB paper has criticised the Commission for this.

    Yet again I suggest you find yourself in an extremist location on the scale, and I suppose I ought take the US Government's approach when it comes to reasoning with extremism.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Nice try. If 2010 is your starting point then yes, it's no surprise to see little change, or mild improvement in incomes and imports. Sadly for your attempt at disproving the internal devaluation, the economic crisis began in Ireland in 2008. Austerity plans had begun being formulated as early as the Summer of 2008.

    If you're denying that incomes and imports fell, and that the real burden of debt increased, then you're simply denying that an internal devaluation took place. That's akin to denying that austerity occurred. There's no need to take such a bizarre course.

    Austerity happened, and it had to happen, and it met most of its objectives. The real burden of debt did increase, though; because incomes fell and demand was demolished. These are now recovering, but serious challenges remain in the Irish economy.


    Ireland had its highest budget deficit in 2010 which makes 2010 the obvious starting point.

    Even if you take 2008 as the starting point of austerity and look at the lag factor i.e. economic measure do not take immediate effect, then you would expect sometime after 2008 to be the bottoming out point before the effects of remedial measures became apparent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73 ✭✭Crosswind


    I mean... A is kind of saying just that isn't it? Go to your bank and try that line and see how they react!

    I don't think so. If i loan money to someone I'll make sure he won't default cause then i get nothing.


  • Posts: 14,242 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Godge wrote: »
    Ireland had its highest budget deficit in 2010 which makes 2010 the obvious starting point.
    Of course it isn't. If you want to see the effects of austerity, you sit down and begin the time series at the moment austerity begins, not when its worst effects were tapering off!

    I'm not sure if you were being sarcastic, because I can't reason with that statement.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,191 ✭✭✭Eugene Norman


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    The first two reduce demand (as even -- or especially right wingers point out) but do not end the deficit because of multipliers. The latter is necessary but has to be empirically proven to promote growth and moderate.
    Before Syriza, the Greek economy was expected to grow by almost 3% in 2015, and the primary balance was expected to be 4.1% of GDP. That would have reduced Greek debt by 7 percentage points of GDP this year, and 11 points next year. Debt would have been reduced to 135% of GDP by 2019.

    These estimates are just that -- estimates. clearly bogus estimates at that ( as were all of the troikas estimates in the previous years. There's a graph on that somewhere).
    Then we got Syriza, and the recovery was derailed in the interests of hard-left ideology and combative bluster.

    What mystical nonsense you believe. Syriza destroyed the economy by largely imposing most of the cuts that would have been imposed anyway but a right wing clientelist regime would have saved the economy by taking money out. That's not how economies work.
    You simply have no basis for claiming that austerity failed. It is very evidently anti-austerity that has led to capital controls, closed banks, and Greece teetering ever closer to a return to the drachma, which would be an economic and social disaster for the country.

    I very much do. It's standard economics, standard common sense that taking money out of an economy slows it down, thus reducing the GDP from where it would have been. In boom times monetary and fiscal policy can thwart bubbles ( the latter is unfortunately never really tried) in recessions it exacerbates recessions and turns them into depressions. This is why the banker led recession/depression had to be thwarted by massive electronic money creation, bailouts and QE.

    It's not surprising that as a trader who in part caused this mess, and was bailed out by your own admission, you don't understand even simple macro economics but I suppose we wouldn't expect petrol pump attendants to understand the macro economics of oil.

    Still though, easy peasy. If a country tries to curtail a deficit too soon when it is recession by cutting public service jobs, reducing pensions and increasing taxes the resultant reduction in income leads to a reduction in consumption. Given one man's income is another man's consumption that causes another round of layoffs, and thus reduces the tax take, curtailing GDP and often increasing the deficit and debt/GDP ratios. Which isn't to say it's business as usual and reforms are necessary, just not so many up front.

    Had the Greeks their own currency they could devalue but in a Euro straitjacket they needed help.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Of course it isn't. If you want to see the effects of austerity, you sit down and begin the time series at the moment austerity begins, not when its worst effects were tapering off!

    I'm not sure if you were being sarcastic, because I can't reason with that statement.


    You did ignore the second half of my post, which makes it difficult to take your response seriously.
    Godge wrote: »
    Ireland had its highest budget deficit in 2010 which makes 2010 the obvious starting point.

    Even if you take 2008 as the starting point of austerity and look at the lag factor i.e. economic measure do not take immediate effect, then you would expect sometime after 2008 to be the bottoming out point before the effects of remedial measures became apparent.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    The first two reduce demand (as even -- or especially right wingers point out) but do not end the deficit because of multipliers. The latter is necessary but has to be empirically proven to promote growth and moderate.



    These estimates are just that -- estimates. clearly bogus estimates at that ( as were all of the troikas estimates in the previous years. There's a graph on that somewhere).



    What mystical nonsense you believe. Syriza destroyed the economy by largely imposing most of the cuts that would have been imposed anyway but a right wing clientelist regime would have saved the economy by taking money out. That's not how economies work.



    I very much do. It's standard economics, standard common sense that taking money out of an economy slows it down, thus reducing the GDP from where it would have been. In boom times monetary and fiscal policy can thwart bubbles ( the latter is unfortunately never really tried) in recessions it exacerbates recessions and turns them into depressions. This is why the banker led recession/depression had to be thwarted by massive electronic money creation, bailouts and QE.

    It's not surprising that as a trader who in part caused this mess, and was bailed out by your own admission, you don't understand even simple macro economics but I suppose we wouldn't expect petrol pump attendants to understand the macro economics of oil.

    Still though, easy peasy. If a country tries to curtail a deficit too soon when it is recession by cutting public service jobs, reducing pensions and increasing taxes the resultant reduction in income leads to a reduction in consumption. Given one man's income is another man's consumption that causes another round of layoffs, and thus reduces the tax take, curtailing GDP and often increasing the deficit and debt/GDP ratios. Which isn't to say it's business as usual and reforms are necessary, just not so many up front.

    Had the Greeks their own currency they could devalue but in a Euro straitjacket they needed help.


    It is not as simple as that as different taxes have different economic effects and different spending choices have different effects. For example, the short-term pension fund levy imposed on private sector pension funds has little negative effect on the Irish economy as most of the pension funds were invested abroad for diversification reasons and rational economic decisions on pensions are taken with the long-term in mind.

    Similarly, switching money to JobBridge to give people work experience or Springboard to give them training and cutting money on social welfare expenditure also can have a positive effect.

    Given Ireland's recovery, we should be looking at a number of these measures from an econometric point of view to see which had the least negative effects and why.


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