Ireland to leave EU should Britain exit ?

fundjanitor · 16-05-2015 3:05pm #1

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way and exit the EU ??

Personally i would like to see Ireland leave the EU if Britain do so.

Reasons:

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Discuss

eia340600 · 16-05-2015 5:42pm

fundjanitor wrote: »

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Why would multinationals move FROM an EU country to the UK? What possible advantage could that offer them?

fundjanitor wrote: »

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

Our votes actually count more per individual than "the big boys". The larger the electorate, the more difficult it is for extremist views to take hold. In my view this adds greatly to stability. Compared to almost any other people on earth, Europeans live comfortable and safe lives - This is worth maintaining.

fundjanitor wrote: »

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

Do we? What parts and why is that a disadvantage in any way? In the UK, where immigration is a bigger factor than here, immigrants actually add more to an economy than they take. There is no limited number of jobs or the like. The more people, the more services are required, the more jobs there are. Can you explain why "we need to control our borders"?

fundjanitor wrote: »

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

What does this mean? We are part of a collective and we have a voice in that collective. I understand that the workings of the EU can be frustrating, but if we suffer any disadvantages because of our membership, I am convinced the advantages far outweigh them.

fundjanitor wrote: »

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Actually, the EU (excluding the UK) is our largest trading partner, followed by the US, followed by the UK.

Jim2007 · 16-05-2015 9:56pm

fundjanitor wrote: »

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Do you actually understand what it would mean for the UK to leave the EU??? They will have not trading relationship with market of 400m people, now they did very poorly when they had full access to the marked so I would not be will to bet on them when the are ranked way below their competitors. I have yet to hear of any CEOs who are willing to turn their backs on a market of that size?

fundjanitor wrote: »

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

How so, can you give us a concrete example? One of the reasons that the EU decisions make process goes so slow is because they are continuously trying to obtain consensus rather than putting things to a vote.

fundjanitor wrote: »

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

The directive on the free movement of people already provides sufficient tools for controlling the moment of EU citizens and from outside the EU we have the EU Blue Card... If we feel that is insufficient then the proper approach is to take it up with our partners, not just up and leave.

fundjanitor wrote: »

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

What does that even mean? Object for the same of objecting.... The fact is that with the exception of the UK most of peoples of the EU have very common values and expectations. So it should not be surprising that we have very few differences.

fundjanitor wrote: »

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Well the figures I see from the OEC for the top 5 are: USA 19%, UK 14%, Benelux 13%, Germany 8%, France 6%.... now given that the EU is in the process of coming up with a new comprehensive agreement with the US, I say it would be far more advantageous to be inside that outside trying to negotiate our own agreement.

An other point to consider, according the Credit Suisse economists (internal research) there are only two countries in Euroland who's currency would rise significantly if they were to exit the Euro - Germany and Ireland! Both countries have benefited greatly from trading in an under valued currency.

BoJack Horseman · 16-05-2015 11:04pm

fundjanitor wrote: »

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way and exit the EU ??

No & most British voters wish to remain part of the EU.

I thought being an economic vassal of the UK went out of fashion decades ago?

The J Stands for Jay · 16-05-2015 11:13pm

fundjanitor wrote: »

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

If a multinational is set up in one EU country, they have access to the entire common market. If the UK left, we would be the only native English speaking country left. That would be attractive for a lot of US companies looking for access to the EU common market.

I would say the opposite of your point would be the case.

KingBrian2 · 16-05-2015 11:27pm

Britain staying in the EU is preferable but is not really a bid deal. It is completely overblown exaggeration. So they decide to leave we continue to have good relations with them only this time I see opportunity to extend trade into the Scottish highlands. Remember those guys like the idea of the EU and regardless of their attachment with England they will want to retain links with the rest of us.

Grandpa Hassan · 16-05-2015 11:32pm

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

No & most British voters wish to remain part of the EU.

Where do you see that? Politicians do. And business people. But a vast swathe of the great unwashed British public would vote to leave. My family live around Leeds and I barely meet a person when I am up there who would vote to stay in. Including my entire family. The campaign to stay in can't take the vote for granted for sure

KingBrian2 · 16-05-2015 11:43pm

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

Where do you see that? Politicians do. And business people. But a vast swathe of the great unwashed British public would vote to leave. My family live around Leeds and I barely meet a person when I am up there who would vote to stay in. Including my entire family. The campaign to stay in can't take the vote for granted for sure

The Scots want to stay. That place used to be full of Labourites, Unionists, Liberals, Greens & Republicans. Now they are all Nationalists. The voters south of the border might not need Europe with all its legislation that ain't the case for Highlanders. Those people might not agree on all issues but I believe we can reasonable say with certainty the Scots are not going to give into demands to break the link with the EU. It was a Scottish PM that made agreements on behalf of Britain in Brussels meetings.

BoJack Horseman · 16-05-2015 11:48pm

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

Politicians do.

Not enough though.

An in/out vote in parliament would be heavily defeated.
The 'Brexit' MP's don't make up the majority of the Tory party.

Apparently Cameron knows he will face a 2/3 vs 1/3 split if negotiations go poorly in Brussels.
Terrible for him, but no parliamentary majority.

And business people.

....for the large majority wish to remain part of the EU.

But a vast swathe of the great unwashed British public would vote to leave. My family live around Leeds and I barely meet a person when I am up there who would vote to stay in. Including my entire family.

Aside from your folks poor personal hygiene, recent pools indicate a majority favouring remaining in the EU.

scouserstation · 16-05-2015 11:50pm

What about currency? how would we fare if we went back to the punt on exiting the euro?

KingBrian2 · 16-05-2015 11:55pm

scouserstation wrote: »

What about currency? how would we fare if we went back to the punt on exiting the euro?

Many Irish people do not support the € or the EU. I happen not to agree with them but we have plenty of sceptics by contrast the political elite in Britain hate being restricted by the Brussels Commission. The UK are undecided on the whole issue. They are being told a pack a lies by the media though. They are losing practical sovereignty by being in NATO and doing what America tells them to do.

Value Hunter · 17-05-2015 12:00am

Leaving the EU would decimate our economy

Anyone with a fraction of a brain realizes this

Westernyelp · 17-05-2015 12:02am

I notice OP has decided to leave this one fairly quickly

Value Hunter · 17-05-2015 12:05am

Westernyelp wrote: »

I notice OP has decided to leave this one fairly quickly

Mammy probably said its bed time!

Muff Richardson · 17-05-2015 12:08am

Value Hunter wrote: »

Leaving the EU would decimate our economy

Anyone with a fraction of a brain realizes this

How insightful. You had me totally convinced upon elaborating on your second point and I feel slightly ashamed if not a tad embarrassed that I didn't know all this already. Thank you in equal measure for your enlightment and input.

Value Hunter · 17-05-2015 12:11am

Muff Richardson wrote: »

How insightful. You had me totally convinced upon elaborating on your second point and I feel slightly ashamed if not a tad embarrassed that I didn't know all this already. Thank you in equal measure for your enlightment and input.

Your welcome Muff

oscarBravo · 17-05-2015 12:40am

fundjanitor wrote: »

someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority

You're absolutely right: there are whole houses where this is true.

Jim2007 · 17-05-2015 1:16pm

scouserstation wrote: »

What about currency? how would we fare if we went back to the punt on exiting the euro?

Both ourselves and German benefit greatly from the Euro, primarily because it is under valued. What I would consider to be fairly independent research (Credit Suisse) predict that an Irish punt or DMark for that matter would raise if either Ireland or Germany were to leave Euroland. Their main reasoning is that Ireland has been a net exporting country for a very long time and net exporting countries have strong currencies, if for no other reason than your customers have to buy your currency to pay for the goods you ship them.

By the same token these people never stopped recommending Irish government bonds to their clients all through the recession, their reasoning was the same: Ireland is a net exporting country and if you are continuously selling more than you are buying you can eventually work your way out any financial difficulties and of course we are northern Europeans, which in the eyes of the Swiss makes us solid reliable business partners.

MarkAnthony · 17-05-2015 1:25pm

The UK - What ever part of it's left by the time the get round to the vote 'leaving' the EU and Ireland leaving the EU are two entirely different animals.

Cameron knows he can get some sort of peripheral deal (a la Switzerland) maintaining the common market elements but removing some of the more unpopular legal elements, probably by making some sort of compromise on immigration which will be heralded by the UK as a great victory. The ground work for this has probably been in the works for years. As opposed t the Irish exit which would be 'Bye now, don't let the door hit you in the arse on they way out'.

Saipanne · 17-05-2015 1:35pm

Op nowhere to be seen...

Victor · 17-05-2015 1:43pm

fundjanitor wrote: »

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way

Blame the English now?

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Perhaps you mean Éire? Are you perhaps living in the 1930s?

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Ireland's advantages - workforce, tax treaties, EU membership, English-speaking (but with access to other languages), Euro currency, time zone, transport access. Yes, let's throw a bunch of them on a bonfire.

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

So, alienate 86% of our trade to protect 14%? :rolleyes:

KingBrian2 wrote: »

I see opportunity to extend trade into the Scottish highlands.

Do you mean the Scottish highlands - where nobody lives?

Jim2007 · 17-05-2015 2:11pm

MarkAnthony wrote: »

Cameron knows he can get some sort of peripheral deal (a la Switzerland)...

There is no way he would accept the Swiss deal and people who suggest it clear fail to appreciate that our deal is basically membership without representation. We have to accept the the full force of the free movement of people, we have to contribute to the structural funds, we have to fully comply with the requirements of the common market etc.... for the UK that would be a step backwards.

MarkAnthony · 17-05-2015 5:21pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

There is no way he would accept the Swiss deal and people who suggest it clear fail to appreciate that our deal is basically membership without representation. We have to accept the the full force of the free movement of people, we have to contribute to the structural funds, we have to fully comply with the requirements of the common market etc.... for the UK that would be a step backwards.

It was meant in the general sense.

The UK has the bargaining power to pick and choose (to a degree, of course) what treaties it will enter into. The 'In/Out' Referendum will simply allow for the spin doctors to say 'we're out' when really all they will do is negotiate some watering down of the law flowing from the EU. They will remain within the single market as far as is possible.

KingBrian2 · 17-05-2015 10:06pm

MarkAnthony wrote: »

It was meant in the general sense.

The UK has the bargaining power to pick and choose (to a degree, of course) what treaties it will enter into. The 'In/Out' Referendum will simply allow for the spin doctors to say 'we're out' when really all they will do is negotiate some watering down of the law flowing from the EU. They will remain within the single market as far as is possible.

They will have to give up the rebate they get. They keep on and on about the unfairness of France getting all that money for the farmers. If Cameron wants all these opt outs from Brussels and excusing themselves from laws that apply to us all then they will have to leave aside the rebate. That will not be good for many parts of the UK. Even if he does get some leeway he will still have to negotiate separate agreements with Norway, our good selves and the Dutch. He will have his work cut out dealing with all these countries.

gallag · 17-05-2015 10:50pm

KingBrian2 wrote: »

They will have to give up the rebate they get. They keep on and on about the unfairness of France getting all that money for the farmers. If Cameron wants all these opt outs from Brussels and excusing themselves from laws that apply to us all then they will have to leave aside the rebate. That will not be good for many parts of the UK. Even if he does get some leeway he will still have to negotiate separate agreements with Norway, our good selves and the Dutch. He will have his work cut out dealing with all these countries.

You do realise the rebate is just a slight bit of what we pay back? If we leave the EU will will not exactly miss the rebate.

MarkAnthony · 18-05-2015 9:28am

KingBrian2 wrote: »

They will have to give up the rebate they get. They keep on and on about the unfairness of France getting all that money for the farmers. If Cameron wants all these opt outs from Brussels and excusing themselves from laws that apply to us all then they will have to leave aside the rebate. That will not be good for many parts of the UK. Even if he does get some leeway he will still have to negotiate separate agreements with Norway, our good selves and the Dutch. He will have his work cut out dealing with all these countries.

My understanding is that the UK is a net contributor to the EU. Ireland benefits hugely from it's EU membership, I would imagine to a lesser or greater degree through the CAP.

I don't imagine the UK will need to negotiated individually, although I'm sure that wouldn't be an issue. It will simply maintain a treaty arrangement with the EU.

meglome · 18-05-2015 9:45am

Value Hunter wrote: »

Leaving the EU would decimate our economy

Anyone with a fraction of a brain realizes this

Pick any newspaper post from social media and read with horror the many posting how we should leave the EU. All backed up with underpants gnomes logic.

Leave EU
???????????
Profit

Victor · 18-05-2015 2:52pm

MarkAnthony wrote: »

My understanding is that the UK is a net contributor to the EU. Ireland benefits hugely from it's EU membership, I would imagine to a lesser or greater degree through the CAP.

I've always taken these statements with a grain of salt. While the UK government is a net contributor to the EU budget and Irish farmers are net beneficiaries from the CAP, the same doesn't necessarily apply to the UK as a whole, all UK citizens individually or Ireland as a whole, or all Irish citizens individually. However, the benefit of something like the EU is that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. In whatever initiative, one has 500 million people backing it. If we want to create a technical standard for widgets, then not only is the cost spread over 500 million people and the greatest minds from that population can be applied to deriving and implementing it, but if I create a widget, I know it complies with standards across a market of 500 million.

We all benefit from membership and to only use a narrow accounting standard is spending pounds to save pennies.

I don't imagine the UK will need to negotiated individually

How would that work? While it could negotiated with the EU en-bloc, it would still need to negotiate with Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and in the OP's fantasy, Ireland. It would need to do this negotiation by itself.

The Corinthian · 18-05-2015 4:03pm

fundjanitor wrote: »

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way and exit the EU ??

Don't you think you should let them have their referendum and decide what 'their way' is first?

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

Multinationals don't care about direct access to the largest market on the planet? Being outside of that market is more attractive?

Please explain both the logic and any supporting evidence for both those claims.

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

It seems? Is this like a warm fuzzy feeling you get on the issue or do you have some evidence to back this up?

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

Switzerland and Norway are both non-EU members and still have major immigration problems.

Part of it is because they are bound to follow EU freedom of movement if they want to be allowed to trade with the block, but a lot of it is geographical. Canada, in particular, may have strong immigration policies, but are they really any stronger than European ones? After all, last time I checked, Canada is not next door to Africa and the Middle East.

But please pray tell, how Canada and Australia's imigration policies are any more stringent or how we could, outside of the EU, change ours without breaking UN Asylum treaties or EU freedom of movement agreements?

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

Repetition of your second point, so please see above.

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Actually they're not. The EU, less the UK, accounts for 42.5% of Irish exports. The UK 15.4% and the US 23.2%. It doesn't take terribly complex math to realize that the EU, without the UK, accounts for more exports than the UK and the US combined.

So what motivated you to start this thread with a post that is so clearly full of, well, crap? Every point you've made is either unsubstantiated opinion or can be shown as false with ease. Given the response you've received here, have you learned anything from this exercise of yours?

Discuss.

Jim2007 · 18-05-2015 6:19pm

MarkAnthony wrote: »

I don't imagine the UK will need to negotiated individually, although I'm sure that wouldn't be an issue. It will simply maintain a treaty arrangement with the EU.

They cannot negotiate with individual EU members end of story - it's a single market remember? And one of the criteria for joining is that you no longer are entitled to negotiate your own trade deals.

Jim2007 · 18-05-2015 6:23pm

Victor wrote: »

While it could negotiated with the EU en-bloc, it would still need to negotiate with Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and in the OP's fantasy, Ireland. It would need to do this negotiation by itself.

Not really, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland are all members of EFTA as is the EU, so you will not get anything from them unless the EU agrees it as well!

KingBrian2 · 18-05-2015 6:28pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

They cannot negotiate with individual EU members end of story - it's a single market remember? And one of the criteria for joining is that you no longer are entitled to negotiate your own trade deals.

18 countries in the € we share this currency but we pick who we trade with, the Germans have huge investments in Russia, the French put off selling battleships to them. Spain continues to do tourism, transport and banking with Latin America and our good selves we have good trade relations with UK US, Australia, New Zealand and so on. Plenty of the stuff I buy comes from the UK. Likewise Estonia has a booming IT sector.

Considering all this I don't see the big deal if Britain break away or not. Over there it could be a massive deal but for us, hey you guys already decided not to join the €. Didn't the Tories go mad when Brown gave away the Gold bullion while the Italians still have theirs in their vaults.

I don't want to appear to be downgrading the decision for the UK to leave. Personally I think they should stay but if they want to go let them go I do see the Scots playing an important role and as potential partners. The SNP seem genuinely interested in regaining citizens rights.

Jim2007 · 18-05-2015 6:39pm

MarkAnthony wrote: »

The UK has the bargaining power to pick and choose (to a degree, of course) what treaties it will enter into. The 'In/Out' Referendum will simply allow for the spin doctors to say 'we're out' when really all they will do is negotiate some watering down of the law flowing from the EU. They will remain within the single market as far as is possible.

There is no such mechanism, the treaties are very clear on this - you inform the council of ministers and you are gone. It will then be up to the EU minsters to decide if and when negotiations might begin and the nature of those negotiations. But is is worth noting that over past three to four years the EU has refused to neonate on any terms be full membership, primarily because the agreements with Norway and Switzerland are very cumbersome to work with.

Given that the UK has almost aways been at odds with its EU partners, I would not expect that there will be much motivation for early negotiations because in truth the UK as very little to offer. Their 11b net contribution is really not very much when you see all the EU has pumped in Greece, the stability fund and so on. Hell, even Switzerland contributed almost a billion to EU enlargement projects last year alone!

Jim2007 · 18-05-2015 6:47pm

KingBrian2 wrote: »

18 countries in the € we share this currency but we pick who we trade with, the Germans have huge investments in Russia, the French put off selling battleships to them. Spain continues to do tourism, transport and banking with Latin America and our good selves we have good trade relations with UK US, Australia, New Zealand and so on. Plenty of the stuff I buy comes from the UK. Likewise Estonia has a booming IT sector.

And if you take the time to read through the treaties, trade agreements and you will realise that it is covered by EU agreements! Also note that most of it is outwards and not inwards in the common market. And until such time as the UK would reach a trade agreement with the EU, it would stand behind all those countries!

That is what makes it all so crazy from my point of view, they failed to take advantage of what was on offer in the EU from a trade point of view and no somehow they are going to better by getting to the back of the queue....

The Corinthian · 19-05-2015 6:37am

Jim2007 wrote: »

Not really, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland are all members of EFTA as is the EU, so you will not get anything from them unless the EU agrees it as well!

Well actually the EU is not is not a member of EFTA. Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein are members of the EEA, along with the EU, which I suspect is what you were getting at. Switzerland, on the other hand is tied up with countless bilateral treaties with the EU instead.

(Note that the above diagram appears to be a bit dated as, for example, Latvia is in the Eurozone)

The UK, were it to leave the EU, would still need to also leave the EEA and EU Customs Union to get free reign over it's own affairs. Then it would have to negotiate a simelar arrangement as the Swiss.

Even if it managed it would at best look like the Swiss; basically implementing pretty much all EU laws and regulations, paying twoards the honour and lacking any actual representation.

end of the road · 19-05-2015 8:03pm

fundjanitor wrote: »

Personally i would like to see Ireland leave the EU if Britain do so.

and we end up a 1950s backwater again?

fundjanitor wrote: »

an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy

doesn't stop immigration. such policies operate in a way that it looks like they are a great success meaning guaranteed votes, but really they have the same problems as ourselves.

fundjanitor wrote: »

Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

we would. there is the fact the EU keeps us afloat also.

KingBrian2 · 19-05-2015 8:48pm

end of the road wrote: »

there is the fact the EU keeps us afloat also.

It goes both ways. Besides aside from not wanting to leave the EU we should compose our own strategies as contingency plans just like the Germans have theirs when deciding what to do about Greece we should calculate budgets based on whether or not Britain leaves, Scotland becomes separate or a new member joins. It could impact greatly our budget and taxation figures.

NJto.IE · 20-05-2015 4:25am

fundjanitor wrote: »

Do you think it will happen if the English get their way and exit the EU ??

Personally i would like to see Ireland leave the EU if Britain do so.

Reasons:

1.Most multinationals do not care about our EU membership but if the UK leave they could become a much more attractive business location than Eire.

2. It seems like our vote does not count in Europe compared to the big boys( Germany,France etc)

3. We need to control our borders (someparts of the country are starting to resemble Eastern Europe/Middle East where the Irish are rapidly becoming an minority ) an OZ/Canada similar type controlled immigration policy is needed

4. We are becoming yes men to Europe

5. Our main trading partners are the UK and the US so i don't think we would suffer in the long term at all

Discuss

Don't think so.

dlouth15 · 20-05-2015 6:33pm

I think in terms of trading relations, the UK referendum is only about leaving the EU. If they voted out, they would still retain membership of the EEA which impliments a sizable minority of the EU's legislation. So in the immediate aftermath of an out vote, there would be little change in the area of trade.

Of course, given that a lot of the issues that people complain about would still be there under the EEA, this makes it more likely that they would vote to stay in the EU-proper. Yes, they have to then implement all the EU legislation, but in return they get representation that is lacking under the EEA alone.

The question they have to decide is whether the reduction in applicable EU laws under the EEA is worth the lack of representation. Iceland, an EEA member, still has to implement 6% of EU legislation but has no say in that 6%.

gallag · 21-05-2015 10:31am

dlouth15 wrote: »

I think in terms of trading relations, the UK referendum is only about leaving the EU. If they voted out, they would still retain membership of the EEA which impliments a sizable minority of the EU's legislation. So in the immediate aftermath of an out vote, there would be little change in the area of trade.

Of course, given that a lot of the issues that people complain about would still be there under the EEA, this makes it more likely that they would vote to stay in the EU-proper. Yes, they have to then implement all the EU legislation, but in return they get representation that is lacking under the EEA alone.

The question they have to decide is whether the reduction in applicable EU laws under the EEA is worth the lack of representation. Iceland, an EEA member, still has to implement 6% of EU legislation but has no say in that 6%.

Or we could just push for free trade deals without political trappings, like we signed up for originally, we have a very strong case for this, for example if Germany decided against a simple free trade arrangement they would lose one of their biggest markets for exporting Mercedes, BMW and VW group cars plunging them into recession and causing a lot of unemployment.

Also, if the EU decided to cut of its nose, the UK would overnight be able to negotiate trade arrangements with the large emerging economy's and China, USA etc which would be very valuable.

Other benefits would be a boom in the fishing industry, less unemployment in the host workforce and a direct saving of over £50 million sterling per day.

Am not saying it will be a cake walk but there is no point pretending the EU holds all the cards, another thing would be the EU would lose half it's military might overnight forcing all EU countries to up their military budgets.

whatstherush · 21-05-2015 12:51pm

gallag wrote: »

Or we could just push for free trade deals without political trappings,

Gallag can I ask you what exactly you think would make up a free trade deal, say given your BMW example, of cars between the Exited UK and the EU?

gallag · 21-05-2015 1:28pm

whatstherush wrote: »

Gallag can I ask you what exactly you think would make up a free trade deal, say given your BMW example, of cars between the Exited UK and the EU?

No trade tariffs or taxes. Just a simple common market that was the original idea and promise of the EU.

The Corinthian · 21-05-2015 1:46pm

gallag wrote: »

No trade tariffs or taxes.

Why would the EU want to offer that to the UK?

Honestly, there's been a common wisdom for years that it's been better to have the UK inside of the tent, pissing out, than outside pissing in. But at this stage it's beginning to be asked whether Europe would not be better off, with the UK outside of the tent, and the tent door zipped up.

Just a simple common market that was the original idea and promise of the EU.

Actually that was never the original idea and promise of the EU. Perhaps this is the idea and promise that the Conservatives sold to the British public when they joined, but the EU, which was previously the EC, and EEC prior to that, grew out of the European Coal and Steel Community, which was launched in 1952, with the Schuman Declaration, that included the specifically with the following aim:

"The pooling of coal and steel production should immediately provide for the setting up of common foundations for economic development as a first step in the federation of Europe"

So, it has never been purely a 'no trade tariffs or taxes' association. That story is just a fairy tale that Eurosceptics, particularly Brisih ones, have been telling each other for years - 'we were tricked! The EU was never suppose to be this!"

Well tough. The British didn't like the Schuman Declaration and the ideals of the EEC and so didn't join. They still liked the idea of a common market so they set up EFTA. And when this turned out to be a failure, joined the EEC, presumably with the idea of changing this ideal from within. Now that they've gotten nowhere on this plan, they're making one last ditch attempt to force the bloc to follow their ideals, not those original ideas that were there before the British decided to join up.

So to suggest that these were not the case to begin with is either deluded or simply dishonest revisionism.

whatstherush · 21-05-2015 3:09pm

gallag wrote: »

No trade tariffs or taxes. Just a simple common market that was the original idea and promise of the EU.

But how can you have a 'simple' common market, if there is no common rules across that market.

Back to the cars example, say Jaguar started producing cars in Exited UK without having to comply with rules(Common Worktime Directive) that BMW have to comply with, and can subsequently undercut BMW in EU markets. Do you think BMW\Germany are going to sit on their arses, say Ya Jaguar\UK, you can have tariff free access to a market of 450m, but you don't need to comply with every rule that are own native car makers do?

You can apply that across every sector, i.e. Agriculture: anyone for bit of cheep tariff free UK offal fed beef? yum yum

gallag · 21-05-2015 3:12pm

The Corinthian wrote: »

Why would the EU want to offer that to the UK

Because it's in their intrest? How many EU countries would plummet into recession if they stopped trading with the UK? Germany's third biggest market that accounts for €90 billion of their gdp, to create barriers with the UK would be suicide for many EU countries, most of all Ireland, and for what? To make a point?

timetogo · 21-05-2015 3:14pm

whatstherush wrote: »

But how can you have a 'simple' common market, if there is no common rules across that market.

Back to the cars example, say Jaguar started producing cars in Exited UK without having to comply with rules(Common Worktime Directive) that BMW have to comply with, and can subsequently undercut BMW in EU markets. Do you think BMW\Germany are going to sit on their arses, say Ya Jaguar\UK, you can have tariff free access to a market of 450m, but you don't need to comply with every rule that are own native car makers do?

Couldn't the EU just put up taxes on the Jaguars made in the UK to make BMW more attractive than Jags? If they're not in the same market that's a possibility. Isn't it? Or am I wrong?
Presumably they'd have to buy a lot of their raw materials outside of the UK too. If they were coming from the EU there's another tax.

gallag · 21-05-2015 3:15pm

whatstherush wrote: »

But how can you have a 'simple' common market, if there is no common rules across that market.

Back to the cars example, say Jaguar started producing cars in Exited UK without having to comply with rules(Common Worktime Directive) that BMW have to comply with, and can subsequently undercut BMW in EU markets. Do you think BMW\Germany are going to sit on their arses, say Ya Jaguar\UK, you can have tariff free access to a market of 450m, but you don't need to comply with every rule that are own native car makers do?

That's a silly example, if they started making cars not fit for purpose they would not pass first inspection and not be fit for road use, obviously things like engineering standards would be applicable but there is no need to have a political union and free movement of people etc to sell cars?!?!

whatstherush · 21-05-2015 3:19pm

gallag wrote: »

That's a silly example, if they started making cars not fit for purpose they would not pass first inspection and not be fit for road use, obviously things like engineering standards would be applicable.

I didn't say they weren't fit for purpose, or mention anything about engineering or safety standards, I said they could produce them cheaper by not having to comply with a current EU directive such as the worktime directive.

gallag wrote: »

but there is no need to have a political union and free movement of people etc to sell cars?!?!

Did I said it had, I asked you what a free trade agreement would look like?

whatstherush · 21-05-2015 3:22pm

timetogo wrote: »

Couldn't the EU just put up taxes on the Jaguars made in the UK to make BMW more attractive than Jags? If they're not in the same market that's a possibility. Isn't it? Or am I wrong?
Presumably they'd have to buy a lot of their raw materials outside of the UK too. If they were coming from the EU there's another tax.

That would be tariff and the total opposite of what a free trade agreement is meant to achieve.

timetogo · 21-05-2015 3:25pm

whatstherush wrote: »

That would be tariff and the total opposite of what a free trade agreement is meant to achieve.

Yep. I thought that is what would happen if the UK left the EU. i.e. lose their free trade agreements. They could hardly exit and say "we'll keep all the beneficial agreements we've agreed to as part of the EU"

whatstherush · 21-05-2015 3:28pm

timetogo wrote: »

Yep. I thought that is what would happen if the UK left the EU. i.e. lose their free trade agreement.

If they do leave new deals will be negotiated, but gallag and co are in cloud cookoo land if they think EU directives wont be applied to every single item produced, that will be sold in to the EU market tariff free.

Ireland to leave EU should Britain exit ?

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