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Marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction

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Comments

  • #932
    marmurr1916
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,091 ✭✭✭marmurr1916


    Latest poll in the Irish Times shows Yes on 58%, No on 25% with Don't Know/Won't Vote on 17%.

    The research done for the poll suggest that most people who say they don't know will probably end up voting No.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/seismic-shift-needed-for-no-side-to-carry-referendum-1.2214674

    Around 20% of people in both Yes and No camps say they are still listening to all sides of the argument, suggesting they could switch sides.


  • #933
    gravehold
    Closed Accounts Posts: 912 ✭✭✭gravehold


    marmurr1916 wrote: »
    Latest poll in the Irish Times shows Yes on 58%, No on 25% with Don't Know/Won't Vote on 17%.

    The research done for the poll suggest that most people who say they don't know will probably end up voting No.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/seismic-shift-needed-for-no-side-to-carry-referendum-1.2214674

    Around 20% of people in both Yes and No camps say they are still listening to all sides of the argument, suggesting they could switch sides.

    Wasn't yes at like 80% last month


  • #934
    TwoShedsJackson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,438 ✭✭✭TwoShedsJackson


    gravehold wrote: »
    Wasn't yes at like 80% last month

    What if it was? The Yes vote only needs to be 50% +1 for this to pass.


  • #935
    AlphaRed
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 256 ✭✭AlphaRed


    The closer it gets to the 22nd the more people will wake up and realize VOTING NO is the write thing to do.


  • #936
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,085 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    The one thing these polls can't really predict is turnout.

    I have a feeling there's going to be a big surge on Yes turnout as quite a lot of younger people who don't necessarily engage with general politics are heavily engaged in this.


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  • #937
    AlphaRed
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 256 ✭✭AlphaRed


    SpaceTime wrote: »
    The one thing these polls can't really predict is turnout.

    I have a feeling there's going to be a big surge on Yes turnout as quite a lot of younger people who don't necessarily engage with general politics are heavily engaged in this.

    No.

    The yes vote has very much included the universities. I don't think there are any reserves left. The yes vote has reached it's limit from now on it will sink.


  • #938
    gravehold
    Closed Accounts Posts: 912 ✭✭✭gravehold


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    No.

    The yes vote has very much included the universities. I don't think there are any reserves left. The yes vote has reached it's limit from now on it will sink.

    Exams will keep some from voting too, having a vote during exam season was pretty stupid for a government that wants their votes


  • #939
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,085 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    gravehold wrote: »
    Exams will keep some from voting too, having a vote during exam season was pretty stupid for a government that wants their votes

    I don't think holding any referendum or election during obvious times when students are tied up is a good idea. It's no wonder they don't bother voting in General Elections etc.


  • #940
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,085 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    No.

    The yes vote has very much included the universities. I don't think there are any reserves left. The yes vote has reached it's limit from now on it will sink.

    Em I guess I have to start my reply with:

    Yes.

    I am familiar with how the polls are calculated and the models being used are likely to be similar to those used in previous referenda and elections. They can try to include turnout shifts, but it's basically impossible to call either way.

    The likelihood however is the younger vote will be underestimated as it hasn't turned out in large numbers in any previous poll.


  • #941
    timetogo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 990 ✭✭✭timetogo


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    No.

    The yes vote has very much included the universities. I don't think there are any reserves left. The yes vote has reached it's limit from now on it will sink.

    Did the No polls not include the universities?

    I'm not sure about the thinking behind this statement anyway. When I went to uni I registered where I lived and was able to vote. Polling stations are open until 10 so it's not going to have a huge affect on people who have exams. If they are going to uni they could have changed their registration address or if they're going home on Friday evening they'll probably be in their home constituencies by 10PM. This will affect yes and no voters going to uni. I suppose the only difference is which side wants to vote more.


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  • #942
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,085 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    It's actually not very easy to include the universities in the polls other than by educated guess work.

    Most polling organisations work from a known, well researched panel who accept telephone polling surveys.

    They don't generally have the ability to suddenly change that and add students in large numbers. Also students are notoriously difficult to reach using standard polling methodologies, which rely on mostly outbound calls and long surveys.

    What you're mostly getting is just a sampling of a known population each poll.


  • #943
    timetogo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 990 ✭✭✭timetogo


    gravehold wrote: »
    Wasn't yes at like 80% last month

    Dunno. A google finds this article.

    http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/poll-shows-jump-in-sf-support-and-72-yes-vote-in-marriage-referendum-674434.html

    72% for yes and 20% for no nearly a month ago.


  • #944
    AlphaRed
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 256 ✭✭AlphaRed


    gravehold wrote: »
    Exams will keep some from voting too, having a vote during exam season was pretty stupid for a government that wants their votes

    Or maybe the truth is, the government don't want their votes because they don't want a yes result. I think it's fairly obvious Enda Kenny is only showing support because he was pressured into do so. And I'm sure he'll be greatly relieved at a NO result.

    Also the thing about universities. I happen to know, for example, in UCD it was only a few hundred who voted for the SU to support marriage equality.

    The question being asked was badly worded and was basically framed in favour of a yes result.

    From what I can see, support for a yes vote is very very hollow.


  • #945
    marmurr1916
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,091 ✭✭✭marmurr1916


    gravehold wrote: »
    Wasn't yes at like 80% last month

    No. It was at 64%. When Don't Knows are excluded, Yes is at 70% in this latest poll.


  • #946
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,085 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    Or maybe the truth is, the government don't want their votes because they don't want a yes result. I think it's fairly obvious Enda Kenny is only showing support because he was pressured into do so. And I'm sure he'll be greatly relieved at a NO result.

    Also the thing about universities. I happen to know, for example, in UCD it was only a few hundred who voted for the SU to support marriage equality.

    The question being asked was badly worded and was basically framed in favour of a yes result.

    From what I can see, support for a yes vote is very very hollow.

    In UCC over 4000 people that we know of registered to vote for the first time specifically to vote in the referendum!


  • #947
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    Or maybe the truth is, the government don't want their votes because they don't want a yes result. I think it's fairly obvious Enda Kenny is only showing support because he was pressured into do so. And I'm sure he'll be greatly relieved at a NO result.

    Also the thing about universities. I happen to know, for example, in UCD it was only a few hundred who voted for the SU to support marriage equality.

    The question being asked was badly worded and was basically framed in favour of a yes result.

    From what I can see, support for a yes vote is very very hollow.

    And I think that hollow Yes come from the fact that young people tend not to vote in the same numbers as older people, they may be vocal about it now but they also need to turn up and vote.

    I think a mix of a hollow Yes and a silent No will mean that it will be much closer than polls suggest


  • #948
    Ozymandius2011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,748 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    And I think that hollow Yes come from the fact that young people tend not to vote in the same numbers as older people, they may be vocal about it now but they also need to turn up and vote.

    I think a mix of a hollow Yes and a silent No will mean that it will be much closer than polls suggest
    The normal turnout models may not work in this referendum because it is so unique. It could be like 2008 and 2012 when polls underestimated the youth turnout.


  • #949
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Ozymandius2011 wrote: »
    The normal turnout models may not work in this referendum because it is so unique. It could be like 2008 and 2012 when polls underestimated the youth turnout.

    That is certainly a possibility.
    Young people are more enthusiastic about this one it seems.

    I still think Yes will win, but it may be something like 55/45 or less.


  • #950
    Jelle1880
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,219 ✭✭✭✭Jelle1880


    I can not imagine how much money has been thrown at ads by the No campaign.

    Almost every single Youtube video I watch seems to have an ad before it to vote No (all of them talking about stuff totally unrelated to the referendum of course). Like their newest one with Keith Mills and Paddy Manning, completely missing the point.

    Must be true that the conservative Yanks are pumping money into the No camp...


  • #951
    SireOfSeth
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 340 ✭✭SireOfSeth


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    The closer it gets to the 22nd the more people will wake up and realize VOTING NO is the write thing to do.

    How so?


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  • #952
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers, Paid Member Posts: 44,276 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Well, you have to write to vote yes too ;)


  • #953
    ByfocalPhoto
    Closed Accounts Posts: 72 ✭✭ByfocalPhoto


    The voting paper could say "To vote yes draw a rhomboid beside the word yes"


  • #954
    AlphaRed
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 256 ✭✭AlphaRed


    SireOfSeth wrote: »
    How so?

    Lets take a recent example. The Ashers bakery in the North who got sued because they didn't want to be involved in a political campaign.

    There was a judgment today and the judgment went against the Ashers. The judge accused the Ashers of discrimination when this clearly was not the case. They did not discriminate against the customer for being gay, they just didn't want to get involved with his political message.

    The Ashers were attacked by the gay lobby for their beliefs and their identity. This is the gay agenda. Step by step they will attack every aspect of society until it conforms to their vision of how society should be, and they are using the concept of equality to do it.

    Equality is important but when it is being used to attack people's identity that is wrong. Do you realize how important and fundamental a person identity is? I find it terrifying to think there are people out there plotting to control who we are. In countries where gay marriage has been introduce they are already attacking churches. They are now claiming if straight people can get married in a church so should gay people be able to get married in a church.

    In the papers everyone is claiming the church and schools will not be affected by the change to the constitution but this is a load of B.S. If they win on Friday they will not stop there.

    Look, I know you're a yes voter. But can't you see what's really going on? Gay people are being used to erode the identities of western cultures. Do you not think we are entitled to our identities? Can't you see how important that is? Can you see it from our perspective?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gnpCqsXE8g


  • #955
    jobbridge4life
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭jobbridge4life


    So we have decided to move from crank to full on loon mode. Cool.


  • #956
    traprunner
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭traprunner


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    Lets take a recent example. The Ashers bakery in the North who got sued because they didn't want to be involved in a political campaign.

    There was a judgment today and the judgment went against the Ashers. The judge accused the Ashers of discrimination when this clearly was not the case. They did not discriminate against the customer for being gay, they just didn't want to get involved with his political message.

    The Ashers were attacked by the gay lobby for their beliefs and their identity. This is the gay agenda. Step by step they will attack every aspect of society until it conforms to their vision of how society should be, and they are using the concept of equality to do it.

    Equality is important but when it is being used to attack people's identity that is wrong. Do you realize how important and fundamental a person identity is? I find it terrifying to think there are people out there plotting to control who we are. In countries where gay marriage has been introduce they are already attacking churches. They are now claiming if straight people can get married in a church so should gay people be able to get married in a church.

    In the papers everyone is claiming the church and schools will not be affected by the change to the constitution but this is a load of B.S. If they win on Friday they will not stop there.

    Look, I know you're a yes voter. But can't you see what's really going on? Gay people are being used to erode the identities of western cultures. Do you not think we are entitled to our identities? Can't you see how important that is? Can you see it from our perspective?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gnpCqsXE8g


    Sorry you lost me when you said that Ashers were found guilty of discrimination in a court of law but were not guilty of discrimination.


  • #957
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    Look, I know you're a yes voter. But can't you see what's really going on? Gay people are being used to erode the identities of western cultures. Do you not think we are entitled to our identities? Can't you see how important that is? Can you see it from our perspective?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gnpCqsXE8g
    I'm just waiting for the words "Illuminati" or "Reverse Vampires" here.


  • #958
    AlphaRed
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 256 ✭✭AlphaRed


    jobbridge4life wrote: »
    So we have decided to move from crank to full on loon mode. Cool.

    How so?
    traprunner wrote: »
    Sorry you lost me when you said that Ashers were found guilty of discrimination in a court of law but were not guilty of discrimination.

    The judge claimed they discriminated against him for being gay but the reason they wouldn't bake the cake is they didn't want to get involved in a political campaign. They are going to take it to a higher court btw. Please don't so short sighted.


  • #959
    traprunner
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭traprunner


    seamus wrote: »
    I'm just waiting for the words "Illuminati" or "Reverse Vampires" here.

    Reverse vampires would be cool but unfortunately like Alphareds video it has nothing to do with the referendum. I would love some kind of vote on it though.


  • #960
    AlphaRed
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 256 ✭✭AlphaRed


    seamus wrote: »
    I'm just waiting for the words "Illuminati" or "Reverse Vampires" here.

    How about one word? WAR

    Because that's exactly what you're going to get.


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  • #961
    traprunner
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭traprunner


    AlphaRed wrote: »
    How so?



    The judge claimed they discriminated against him for being gay but the reason they wouldn't bake the cake is they didn't want to get involved in a political campaign. They are going to take it to a higher court btw. Please don't so short sighted.

    I'm not short sighted. They have every right to use the tools the le provides them and appeal.

    I'll ask you not to be so short sighted and closed minded about gay people. The world won't end by letting them be equals.


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