How will you vote in the Marriage Equality referendum? Mod Note Post 1

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Duh! My apologies.

So the article does not mention the don't knows/won't vote at all? Strange.

I also wonder what the impact of changing the question is. It is effectively the same question but framed slightly differently now - being asked along with the other referendum, etc.

Leading with a headline "Drop in support" (given that the 80% seems like an outlier and otherwise support seems pretty stable at about 75% considering the margin for error of 2.8% in the poll) seems sensationalist to me.

But... the sampling on that survey confuses me ... they asked 1200 people, ok.. that's not a huge sampling pool but should be enough, at 100 sampling points in all constituencies.... again, that's ok but how did they distribute the sampling points? Were there as many in Leitrim as Dublin for example?

They quote 18-24 year olds, 25-34 year olds and over-65's which by deduction means they have 6 age categories. So, consider this... 100 sampling points, and 1200 people, that's 12 people per sampling point, presumably 2 people per age category per sampling point.
In total its 200 people per age category so, extrapolating anything from the age categories to a national level is madness for a start, the margin for error is vast when the sampling size is so small.

Doing a meta-analysis of the existing polls might be more informative but considering that the support for a Yes vote has been, in a mathematical sense, pretty rock solid around 75% I think the answer would just produce that result too

Sampling like this is fraught with problems. It should be washed back with additional questions like "are you registered to vote" or "do you intend to vote", along with perhaps some more statistical models of voting patterns in the age groups and/or gender biases.

When you trend it like that I would predict a Yes result somewhere in the low-middle 60's unless the whole debate galvanises the youth vote. (but that's just a back-of-a-packet-of-dare-I-say-it-fags calculation )

I just love the way keith mills is with mothers and fathers matter and he cares so much about the rights of the child he's going to be at the Eurovision when the referendum is taking place. (To the best of my knowledge)

Does anyone know if you can be registered without doing anything? I checked the last day and I was on checktheregister.ie but neither myself nor anyone else that I know of registed me.

sup_dude wrote: »

Does anyone know if you can be registered without doing anything? I checked the last day and I was on checktheregister.ie but neither myself nor anyone else that I know of registed me.

Ive been on the register for 32 years and it was the Local FG stalwart s who made it so way back then when I came of age. Family would have had a history with Ould Dev that would have made them think I could only vote1 way.
The politico's would get you struck off just as quick if ya move out of a constuincy back then. They might be as active in the future when things get tight seats wise.

sup_dude wrote: »

Does anyone know if you can be registered without doing anything? I checked the last day and I was on checktheregister.ie but neither myself nor anyone else that I know of registed me.

People are employed by local authorities to visit homes and check and see if there are persons above the eligible voting age living at home to ensure the list is kept up to date. It's possible that is how your and O/P's names are on the list.

sup_dude wrote: »

Oh I know! I was worried I'd show up at the station and be turned away. Especially since it's easily fixed when UL is giving out registration forms and the Gardai are there for two hours every Wednesday to sign them.

Now that's what I call positive action at UL. If you get your ballot paper, it should be in line with your presence on the voting list. Just check by getting some-one at home visit the nearest Post Office, Library, Council offices or Garda Station to check the list for your street/road.

endacl wrote: »

Check here. Simple.

https://www.checktheregister.ie/PublicPages/Default.aspx?uiLang=

I did, which was in my post and the reason I was unsure in the first place.

Cody montana wrote: »

I won't be in my the area I registered on that day, is there anyway I can still vote?

The poll is between 7am and 10pm - why wont you be in the area? if its for work or study reasons you could possibly register for a postal vote

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

The poll is between 7am and 10pm - why wont you be in the area? if its for work or study reasons you could possibly register for a postal vote

I've a friend over that day from abroad and we are going touring Ireland.

david75 wrote: »

Wasnt there some shenanigans with the electoral role back in the 80s or 90s where some party was registering AND voting people who'd died as well as people in the constituency that were unregistered & then getting them to the polling station on the day by hook or crook or getting a stand in to pretend it was them?

That reminds me, I think I remember reading about something where, either in the first divorce referendum or the referendum that implemented the 8th Amendment, priests and members of religious orders brought pensioners - some of whom were almost certainly suffering from dementia - to polling stations to vote in a certain way.

Speaking of shenanigans with the electoral roll, I've checked the register and I don't seem to be there! I swear I remember signing up to register again last semester in college.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

That reminds me, I think I remember reading about something where, .......................

Where? I think something somewhere just suits your argument. I'd love to see you back up that allegation