Storm likely Saturday night 28th Feb - Widespread gusts > 100km/hr

ninebeanrows · 26-02-2015 07:15PM #1

A widespread wind event is increasingly likely late Saturday and into early Sunday as a rapidly deepening depression will form on the left exit of an intense jetstreak.

The storm will deepen markedly on approach and has the potential to bring widespread inland gusts 60kt and gusts in exposed regions above 70kt.

Nothing exceptional is expected but the storm may be notable due to its southerly track bringing more populated regions into its path.

Also of note is it is likely to take a direct path overland at its most developmental phase with lots of energy and rapid pressure falls, some significant wind gusts may occur as it exits the Irish east coast.

A quick post here as busy but just to highlight the risk....

EC @ 48

ECM1-48.GIF?26-0

maquiladora · 26-02-2015 07:20PM

Yep, while the Sunday night low has dissolved from the GFS, the low on Saturday looks more interesting now on the ECM.

maquiladora · 26-02-2015 07:29PM

This ECM view is a bit better.

ninebeanrows · 26-02-2015 07:33PM

Sustained winds near 45kt inland. Not a common occurrence

maquiladora · 26-02-2015 09:56PM

18Z HIRLAM shows storm force winds on the west coast, inland gales.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv

Smidge · 26-02-2015 10:49PM

Will this be a mainly coastal SW storm?

Harry Palmr · 26-02-2015 11:12PM

Met E doesn't seem too excited by this, just another wintery blow.

typhoony · 26-02-2015 11:15PM

level 1 seems about right, thankfully considering its track it doesnt turn into a bomb. I would wait though until tomorrow mornings chart updates just in case

Oscar Bravo · 26-02-2015 11:25PM

Met eireann will have an upgrade on the 0530 update on the website and at 0755 on radio 1. it will be once again nasty along parts of the west coast late Saturday/early sunday. mace head no doubt recording a fairly high gust yet again!

maquiladora · 26-02-2015 11:32PM

Violent storm force on the west coast on the 18Z EURO4, though the model is prone to overdoing things a little.

ninebeanrows · 27-02-2015 06:07AM

Morning guidance pushing storm a bit further north.

Would hold gust calls from yesterday put place risk zone further north.

It will be a rapidly developing storm as it crosses the country.

A good swathe of 60kt+ gusts, exposed areas to 70kt+

Strongest gusts may be as the storm exits into the North Channel Sat night.

Latest EC @ 48hrs

ECM1-48.GIF?27-12

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 08:20AM

A downgrade due to the track shift on the ECM this morning. The tightest gradient now brushes up along the west-northwest-north coasts rather than pushing further inland as the model showed yesterday. It's also a bit weaker.

Still time for some changes, and would still bring gales inland for a time in the parts of the west/northwest/north I think. But a bit less interesting than it looked yesterday.

weisses · 27-02-2015 08:37AM

Not even a level 1 so ... if that downgrade continues

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 08:56AM

weisses wrote: »

Not even a level 1 so ... if that downgrade continues

As it stands, Met Eireann would probably still issue an orange warning for the west coast if the ECM verified. But yeah further changes are possible.

weisses · 27-02-2015 10:16AM

GFS showing 80 - 85 km/h winds max for Saturday ?! ..

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 10:29AM

weisses wrote: »

GFS showing 80 - 85 km/h winds max for Saturday ?! ..

GFS doesn't model these type of lows very well accurately. Better off looking at ECM/HIRLAM.

06Z HIRLAM shows it as mainly a west/northwest coast affair. Force 9 to Force 10. Nothing unusual for those areas and could downgrade further if it tracks further north again. Still would probably be an orange warning for those areas.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv

weisses · 27-02-2015 10:32AM

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS doesn't model these type of lows very well accurately. Better off looking at ECM/HIRLAM.

Thanks ... Just picking up on reading/interpreting the charts lately ...

eastmayo · 27-02-2015 01:27PM

Met eireann have issued an orange wind alert for tomorrow eve

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 02:54PM

eastmayo wrote: »

Met eireann have issued an orange wind alert for tomorrow eve

Yeah, as expected given what the HIRLAM is showing. Less severe than it looked yesterday and more confined to coastal areas, but still stormy for a time on the west/northwest coast.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo

Extremely windy period from Saturday afternoon through to early Sunday morning.
Southwest veering west winds will reach mean speeds 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 110 km/h., but gusts of up to 130km/h, are likely on exposed coasts and headlands for a time in the evening and early night.
Issued:
Friday 27 February 2015 11:00
Valid:
Saturday 28 February 2015 14:00 to Sunday 01 March 2015 06:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Westmeath, Meath, Roscommon, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Very windy condition from Saturday afternoon through to late Saturday night
Southwest veering west winds will reach mean speeds 50 to 60 km/h with gusts of over 90km/h., but up to 110km/h. in exposed areas.
Issued:
Friday 27 February 2015 11:00
Valid:
Saturday 28 February 2015 14:00 to Sunday 01 March 2015 02:00

Oneiric 3 · 27-02-2015 10:50PM

GFS & GSM not making much of this away from the NW, though the ECM & HIRLAM suite continue to hint at very gusty weather on a more widespread scale, but with the NW bearing the brunt.

FWVT · 27-02-2015 11:00PM

Those Vedur ECM wind charts posted earlier show wind at 100 m, not 10 m, so they can look meaner than reality down at our level.

Oscar Bravo · 27-02-2015 11:30PM

Orange marine wind warning issued 2300
Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning

Southwesterly gales or strong gales developing on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea early Saturday afternoon, soon veering westerly and increasing to storm force on coasts from Loop Head to Rossan Point to Carlingford Lough.
Issued:
Friday 27 February 2015 23:00

ninebeanrows · 28-02-2015 12:43AM

Impressive dry intrusion forecast with this system. One not to underestimate. Sting jet like feature a possibility

ninebeanrows · 28-02-2015 06:39AM

Certaingly stingjet potential in northwest later.

Euro4 showing sustained 100km winds brushing coast latet,,,, awaiting EC

maquiladora · 28-02-2015 10:27AM

Looks like its downgraded a bit again since last night on the HIRLAM. Gales more restricted to coastal areas rather than getting further inland.

Should still reach storm force on the northwest coast for a while though.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv

Current sat :

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 01:26PM

Getting bleak now at Westport harbour

ninebeanrows · 28-02-2015 01:43PM

A short phase of quite violent winds to reach the north-west coast this evening

- It will really ramp up quickly in the next few hours.

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 02:19PM

1300 reports , gust of 52 knots at Belmullet and 986. 1400 reports pressure now down to 983 hpa

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 03:19PM

1500 reports , Belmullet now down to 981hpa

Meteorite58 · 28-02-2015 03:45PM

Wind picking up on the North Kerry Coast, 10 min avg 27 kph, gust 58 kph SW. Will be out of the strongest winds, doubt I will get gusts above 80 kph here.

Feeling extremely mild at 12.2C

Overcast and misty on and off

Bar 989.98mb Falling Rapidly

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 04:20PM

A very rapid increase in the winds here in Castlebar but extremely mild here at the moment at 12 degrees. Meanwhile on the 1600 reports Belmullet is now down to 980hpa with gusts being reported at nearly all of the met stations.

Storm likely Saturday night 28th Feb - Widespread gusts > 100km/hr

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