Cheltenham Festival 2015

Hulk Hands · 20-02-2015 02:52PM

Favourite stats are such utter nonsense. Dunguib was a 10/11 fav, should he be grouped into the same favourite stats as Binocular, who was 8/1 fav? If Vatour had drifted out a half point last year, did his chance become greater? Discount stats, as chance like that needs a sample size of over 1,000 to be even considered relavant by mathamaticians.

If anything the supreme is a great race to be backing favourites. The betfair market, which is the closest thing we have to an efficient 100% market at this time, has Douvan at 15/8 to lay. Thats what the market reflects his true chance to be at this time. Obviously it'll get more efficient as liquidity piles into it on the day, but it'll likely be around the same. Yet, everyone knows your likely to get at least 5/2 + on Douvan on the morning of the race. Maybe 3/1. Theres no other day (not even the Weds,Thurs,Fri of Chelt), where you'll get bookies offering arbs like that. Was the same last year (4/1 Irving about a sub 3s lay on BF), and the same the year before (5/2+ MTOY about a sub 2/1 lay on BF). So while people will repeat again and again that the Supreme is not a race to back short price favs, you'll rarely find other races where you can back said fav at 20%+ above his true 100% price.

The Faugheen price argument is really annoying. Why does everyone keep talking about his price as the 5/4 shout he is now, rather than the 13/8 or 7/4 that'll be readily available that morning? Jezki and TNO are likely (not certain) to set a very good standard. The question is whether Faugheen under race conditions is a superstar that can beat that standard. Nobody really knows how likely this is, and thus nobody has a clue what his true price should be. Everyone saying he's a terrible price are just guessing, same as those lumping in. Personally he has looked every inch a superstar thus far, and the 38% that 13/8 implys, seems a fair enough liklihood to me that he is one. Plenty of people are talking about laying him, but lets see how many actually do lump in at 4/6 (minus commission) on him not winning.

Same argument for Sprinter Sacre. Last year the 'wise' mans lay of the festival was Sire De Grugy. Whats resulted was him being available at a ridiculous 7/2 that morning in a terrible race. This year Sprinter Sacre is the popular 'lay'. Fair enough, but again, how many will be lining up to lump on 1/3 or shorter about him losing? People are talking like hes a 6/4 shot. Not many id say. I can see some bookies throwing up 7/2 or 4's on SS in the morning though. A 1 in 5 chance of winning the race could be the value of the week

20-02-2015 03:53PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Favourite stats are such utter nonsense. Dunguib was a 10/11 fav, should he be grouped into the same favourite stats as Binocular, who was 8/1 fav? If Vatour had drifted out a half point last year, did his chance become greater? Discount stats, as chance like that needs a sample size of over 1,000 to be even considered relavant by mathamaticians.

You are misunderstanding why trends mean something. It's nothing to do with statistical significance - people who say this (including some smart people who really should know better) completely misunderstand the trends logic.

Here's a 'trend': 90% of gold cup winners have previously won a grade 1 chase over 3 miles or more. Is that meaningless because it is not statistically significant? Of course not. It's form and everyone understands why it makes sense. Same is true of most (although not all) trends that get discussed.

If someone said "4 of the past 8 Gold Cup winners have names beginning with K or L" that's obviously nonsense. But the trends that get quoted are trends for a reason. There is a logic behind them.

In the case of the Supreme favourites stat there's plenty of good explanations why this is a race to be wary of favourites in. They are summarised above so no need to repeat them. It doesn't mean a favourite cannot win or that a horse is more likely to win if they drift out to second favourite.

It does mean that the race has a history of introducing talking horses to a bit of cold hard reality, which as a novice hurdle usually run at break-neck pace that ends up suiting stayers, often on ground we haven't seen before in the season and in some cases involving horses who have never been to Cheltenham - should be totally obvious.

Hulk Hands · 20-02-2015 04:16PM

I would completely say that Gold Cup trend is insignificant. 90% had won a grade 1 simply because they were good horses, thus had that ability. But in assessing someones win chances, I cant see how its relevant. Road to Riches has won a grade 1, but just because Sam Winner passed a stick in a field a few yards behind it that day, doesnt make Sam Winners actual true chance any less. Road to riches is probably the more likely winner because hes likely a better horse. Had he fell at the last in the Lexus and came out sound, his true chance would be no different than it is now.

I completely accept that people can rightly be wary of backing shorties in Chelt Novices. Its just the use of the term favourite is wrong. Both Irving and Vatour were relatively short in the race last year, should people not have been warying of backing either rather than just the fav (Irving). Similarly, while that waryiness should have an impact in backing some favs like Dunguib at 10/11. should it be a big factor in backing other favs like Binocular at 8/1?

But anyway, in this day and age of countless excel models, data models, simulators etc etc, do people not think that worry about a young horse in a Chelt novice is not already built into the price? You dont have some edge on the market by thinking 'fav is too short given its a Chelt novice'. The impact of that factor has already been relayed into the price, very accurately. The Supreme is one of the most scrutinized races of the year. Far more work and factors like mentioned above go into determining the true price of a shortie in the Supreme than one mind can work out alone. The exchange price he'll be on the day will be efficient. Therefore if you backed Dunguib at 6/4 the day he went off 2.0 on betfair, you were on a +ev bet win or lose (lose in this case). Same will go for Douvan when he's available at 11/4 and goes off 2/1 on the exchanges.

Hulk Hands · 20-02-2015 04:37PM

There have been 90 Gold Cups. I cant see how a sample size of 90 is in anyway able to produce relevant stats. Thats even discounting that the race programme is much different these days, how different the track is, how different the ground is and it likely takes a much different horse to win now than it did in 1930. Many of those early years are probably irrelevant. And theres also anomolies like Golden Miller and Arkle who won so many they skew the stats in their favour and other horses of those times who would be winners in a normal year, basically had no chance. But basically a sample size of 90 means nothing. Try flipping a coin 90 times and see how close to an even split it comes

Francie Barrett · 20-02-2015 04:46PM

Had my first Antepost bet of Cheltenham this morning. Now that The Druids Nephew has an official entry for the Festival Handicap Chase, I've decided to finally nail my colours to this one. Horse will stay all day and you can be sure that this race has been the target for this horse for over a year now. Only a length away from the massively improved Sam Winner when it ran at Cheltenham last November (a decent bench mark of the capability), the horse looks very well handicapped and judging from the strong market support even before the horse got its declaration, connections obviously feel the same way too. I just took the last of the 16/1 that Ladbrokes had available.

20-02-2015 04:53PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I would completely say that Gold Cup trend is insignificant. 90% had won a grade 1 simply because they were good horses, thus had that ability. But in assessing someones win chances, I cant see how its relevant. Road to Riches has won a grade 1, but just because Sam Winner passed a stick in a field a few yards behind it that day, doesnt make Sam Winners actual true chance any less. Road to riches is probably the more likely winner because hes likely a better horse. Had he fell at the last in the Lexus and came out sound, his true chance would be no different than it is now.

I completely accept that people can rightly be wary of backing shorties in Chelt Novices. Its just the use of the term favourite is wrong. Both Irving and Vatour were relatively short in the race last year, should people not have been warying of backing either rather than just the fav (Irving). Similarly, while that waryiness should have an impact in backing some favs like Dunguib at 10/11. should it be a big factor in backing other favs like Binocular at 8/1?

But anyway, in this day and age of countless excel models, data models, simulators etc etc, do people not think that worry about a young horse in a Chelt novice is not already built into the price? You dont have some edge on the market by thinking 'fav is too short given its a Chelt novice'. The impact of that factor has already been relayed into the price, very accurately. The Supreme is one of the most scrutinized races of the year. Far more work and factors like mentioned above go into determining the true price of a shortie in the Supreme than one mind can work out alone. The exchange price he'll be on the day will be efficient. Therefore if you backed Dunguib at 6/4 the day he went off 2.0 on betfair, you were on a +ev bet win or lose (lose in this case). Same will go for Douvan when he's available at 11/4 and goes off 2/1 on the exchanges.

I actually agree with most of this.

I think trends are just a shorthand for the question "what kind of a horse usually wins this race?". On that basis, and treated as any other (fallible) input they are perfectly useful. They often highlight a horse that you might overlook and make you question why a particular horse is favourite but they're not the only tool in the box.

I also agree that most things are factored into the price, one of the few possible exceptions imho is on something like a short horse for a race like the supreme where there is a lot of turnover, a lot of buzz, and the bookies are shy of taking an almighty bath on it. fwiw I also think that 'the wisdom of crowds' is often indistinguishable from 'irrational exuberance' and that the betfair price is no more 'correct' than the stock market on any given day.

Hope you are right about Sam Winner as I have backed him! He's a decent example actually as a trends better might well decide that although he doesn't check that box he was on the premises in the lexus and that's good enough. However, it would obviously be a black mark if he had never been in the mix! BTW I just made that stat up, no idea if it's true!

Peintre Celebre · 20-02-2015 04:55PM

I never look at trends, pointless. Imagine talking yourself out of backing a horse you think is well handicapped because ''no seven year old has won this in ten years' or other muck. Look at a horse on it's merits not necessarily what won it before

20-02-2015 05:00PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

There have been 90 Gold Cups. I cant see how a sample size of 90 is in anyway able to produce relevant stats. Thats even discounting that the race programme is much different these days, how different the track is, how different the ground is and it likely takes a much different horse to win now than it did in 1930. Many of those early years are probably irrelevant. And theres also anomolies like Golden Miller and Arkle who won so many they skew the stats in their favour and other horses of those times who would be winners in a normal year, basically had no chance. But basically a sample size of 90 means nothing. Try flipping a coin 90 times and see how close to an even split it comes

ah now you are doing it again! Trends are nothing to do with statistical significance. They are a shorthand for the question what type of horse tends to win this particular race? That's all.

You are also creating a straw man with your comment about races changing. Any decent trends watcher factors that in and knows when a trend becomes irrelevant, nobody is daft enough to attempt to apply trends that emerged from races that took place in a different era or under different conditions.

There have only been about 150 Grand Nationals so none of those trends are statistically significant either. If you want to back a 7 yr old out of the handicap on his fourth chase start be my guest. Although you won't get the chance because trainers know what sort of horses win the national - which is exactly the point of trends!

longshotvalue · 20-02-2015 05:03PM

I'm very solidly in the trends are in the Past, and don't really have any impact at all on selections.

The only trend that matters at all in Cheltenham , is horses that ran well at past festivals tend to run well again...

20-02-2015 05:09PM

aidankkk wrote: »

I'm very solidly in the trends are in the Past, and don't really have any impact at all on selections.

The only trend that matters at all in Cheltenham , is horses that ran well at past festivals tend to run well again...

Which is a trend...

My personal opinion is:

If you can't figure out the reason for a trend, it's irrelevant
If you can figure out a compelling reason, it's something to take into account
There's no need to throw out a horse because of a trend, but it should give pause for thought (and vice versa - if trends throw up a horse respect it)
Most people apply the trends they agree with automatically without thinking, and then say they don't believe in trends

Gold Cup is actually an interesting trends race this year. SC is clearly the form 3m chaser but on trends he's absolutely not the type of horse that wins a gold cup. Let's see!

Francie Barrett · 20-02-2015 05:11PM

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I never look at trends, pointless. Imagine talking yourself out of backing a horse you think is well handicapped because ''no seven year old has won this in ten years' or other muck. Look at a horse on it's merits not necessarily what won it before

I don't think they're all pointless. For a race like the National, you can use trends to eliminate a good chunk of the field. I do think that using trends when you only have a race that has been run for 5 years is silly though. That kind of data will never be statistically significant.

Meath Centre Forward · 20-02-2015 05:13PM

I wouldn't be so quick to write off trends but I would not place much emphasis on the record of favorites in the Supreme.

I put that one to coincidence. All I can gather from it is that the punters and the layers (and those involved in the odds making process) have a bad record of predicting the Supreme but then 3 of the last 5 favorites have won a similar race, i.e. the Neptune.

Peintre Celebre · 20-02-2015 05:18PM

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I don't think they're all pointless. For a race like the National, you can use trends to eliminate a good chunk of the field. I do think that using trends when you only have a race that has been run for 5 years is silly though. That kind of data will never be statistically significant.

I never use trends to eliminate horses when looking at a race even the national. I'd often easily dismiss a fair chunk of a field purely by ratings. It's rare that there are more than one or two horses you might think are extremely well treated in the same race though it's obviously opinion

zpehtsfd · 20-02-2015 08:32PM

Bet365 getting ready to go NRNB all races at Midnight.

Can't wait to lump on Douvan @ 7/4, Annie Power @ 4/7, Faugheen 1/1 and UDS 4/7. Putting them all in an accumulator. Easy Money!!!!!!!!!

Gringo180 · 20-02-2015 08:38PM

Jezki 6/1. What are the bookies smoking? My NAP of the festival.

posturingpat · 20-02-2015 08:49PM

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Bet365 getting ready to go NRNB all races at Midnight.

Can't wait to lump on Douvan @ 7/4, Annie Power @ 4/7, Faugheen 1/1 and UDS 4/7. Putting them all in an accumulator. Easy Money!!!!!!!!!

Put the spoon away

posturingpat · 20-02-2015 08:56PM

Gringo180 wrote: »

Jezki 6/1. What are the bookies smoking? My NAP of the festival.

Worse prep this year though don't you think? He had every right last year to get beaten by Hurricane fly earlynin the season as he was a Novice stepping in with the big boys and would improve for the experience then the addition of the hood in March helped eke out a bit more. This season he's had the hood and that experience under his belt and still getting beaten by an older HF. I rewatched his last run and that jump at the last was pretty nasty looking,I'd be surprised if he wasn't on the easy list for a week after which wouldn't be ideal either but good luck if you have backed.

mr.jingle · 20-02-2015 09:01PM

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Bet365 getting ready to go NRNB all races at Midnight.

Can't wait to lump on Douvan @ 7/4, Annie Power @ 4/7, Faugheen 1/1 and UDS 4/7. Putting them all in an accumulator. Easy Money!!!!!!!!!

Just over 12/1 for the acca. Terrible value.

Would probably get better prices on all 4 of them the morning of it. Douvan alone will be 5/2 at worst come the morning of Cheltenham

zpehtsfd · 20-02-2015 09:12PM

mr.jingle wrote: »

Just over 12/1 for the acca. Terrible value.

Would probably get better prices on all 4 of them the morning of it. Douvan alone will be 5/2 at worst come the morning of Cheltenham

Sorry i was being sarcastic. Just wanted to highlight how shockingly poor value they all are. I'm not one for laying horses but this has me thinking i should at least start trading them. Going to setup an account specifically for this tomorrow. GL

Meath Centre Forward · 20-02-2015 09:20PM

The New One only has 2.75L to make up on Jezki based on last year's race. On races this season, it's hard to say either have improved. If they have it's not been by much. Therefore it's very possible that The New One will make up that difference assuming he gets a clearer run. Also I said this before but I believe the application of the first time hood led to Jezki running the race of his life last season. It probably won't have the same effect wearing it for the sixth or seventh time.

But Faugheen is the one to beat. Of his last 3 races since bolting up in the Neptune, the one at Punchestown has been most eye-catching for me. I suppose the attraction with him is the unknown. Had he met a top class rival this season, he might have been beaten or indeed might have annihilated him like he did his rivals at Kempton which would have taken away the unknown. I have a few questions (iffy hurdling, meeting a couple of Cheltenham specialists, the fast pace) but nothing that would really alarm me.

I personally think he's a star but I also think The New One is too and the 3/1 for The New One versus the 6/4 or whatever for Faugheen. The New One is a little more tempting.

Gringo180 · 20-02-2015 09:22PM

posturingpat wrote: »

Worse prep this year though don't you think? He had every right last year to get beaten by Hurricane fly earlynin the season as he was a Novice stepping in with the big boys and would improve for the experience then the addition of the hood in March helped eke out a bit more. This season he's had the hood and that experience under his belt and still getting beaten by an older HF. I rewatched his last run and that jump at the last was pretty nasty looking,I'd be surprised if he wasn't on the easy list for a week after which wouldn't be ideal either but good luck if you have backed.

He has being closer to HF this year bar his last race when he pollaxed the last fence so if anything he has improved imo. He wasnt a novice last season either that was the season before when he was 3rd to Champagne Fever.

Meath Centre Forward · 20-02-2015 09:28PM

My Nap at the moment would be Zarkandar in the Stayers Hurdle. Probably a little bit of loyalty going on here as I backed him for the Triumph the year he won it after he won the Adonis Hurdle on his first British racecourse appearance.

I think he's a bit of a Cheltenham specialist and there shouldn't be any doubts about the trip after his recent runs. He likes the good ground and a) he'll be ridden knowing he gets the trip unlike last year and b) he's been trained specifically for the race.

He stays, he hurdles, he battles, he's fresh and he likes good ground and he likes Cheltenham. He won't be the classiest horse to ever win the World Hurdle but maybe in a year where a few of the contenders have had problems (Beat That, More of That, Un Temps Pour Tout) and a few are going here as an afterthought (Saphir De Rheu, Lieutenant Colonel to an extent)...he has enough ingredients to win.

jimjamcos · 20-02-2015 09:28PM

He's no price but having watched TNO and Jezki throughout their careers, unless sprouting wings, they won't live with Faugheens early kick. The Machine will maintain it too and I predict a victory in the style of Rock on Ruby's, just more impressive

Gringo180 · 20-02-2015 09:28PM

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

The New One only has 2.75L to make up on Jezki based on last year's race. On races this season, it's hard to say either have improved. If they have it's not been by much. Therefore it's very possible that The New One will make up that difference assuming he gets a clearer run. Also I said this before but I believe the application of the first time hood led to Jezki running the race of his life last season. It probably won't have the same effect wearing it for the sixth or seventh time.

But Faugheen is the one to beat. Of his last 3 races since bolting up in the Neptune, the one at Punchestown has been most eye-catching for me. I suppose the attraction with him is the unknown. Had he met a top class rival this season, he might have been beaten or indeed might have annihilated him like he did his rivals at Kempton which would have taken away the unknown. I have a few questions (iffy hurdling, meeting a couple of Cheltenham specialists, the fast pace) but nothing that would really alarm me.

I personally think he's a star but I also think The New One is too and the 3/1 for The New One versus the 6/4 or whatever for Faugheen. The New One is a little more tempting.

The New One was getting absolutely battered a long way out while the others where cruising which makes me think he hasnt got the speed for a 2 mile championship race. He will fly home but itll be too little too late imo. Outside the first 3 in the betting this is an appalling race.

posturingpat · 20-02-2015 09:31PM

Gringo180 wrote: »

He has being closer to HF this year bar his last race when he pollaxed the last fence so if anything he has improved imo. He wasnt a novice last season either that was the season before when he was 3rd to Champagne Fever.

I worded it wrong he was only stepping out of novice company into open company so as i said can excuse him having to adjust where this year he's had little or no excuses just beaten fair and square.

Meath Centre Forward · 20-02-2015 09:38PM

Gringo180 wrote: »

The New One was getting absolutely battered a long way out while the others where cruising which makes me think he hasnt got the speed for a 2 mile championship race. He will fly home but itll be too little too late imo. Outside the first 3 in the betting this is an appalling race.

If he's good enough to fly home, then he has the pace for two miles. Anyway goes back to my point, he motored up hill last year and he did likewise in the Neptune and that was where you'd like him to be doing his best work. Also don't buy into this belief he hasn't got enough speed .... which to be fair to yourself .... a lot of them people seem to be suggesting. If that is the case, it wasn't at all evident in last year's Christmas Hurdle.

Let's be fair as well Hurricane Fly is a two time winner and has won the 3 trials for this in Ireland so I wouldn't say he brings the standard up a bit! Anyway that's only my take on it....you're right otherwise....it'd be a shock of unbelievable proportions if the winner did not come from the top 4 in the betting. Although I'm a Kitten Rock fan as well and I think he'll do well.

Gringo180 · 20-02-2015 09:38PM

posturingpat wrote: »

I worded it wrong he was only stepping out of novice company into open company so as i said can excuse him having to adjust where this year he's had little or no excuses just beaten fair and square.

No shame being beat by one of the greatest hurdlers to race in Ireland. If HF was as good at Cheltenham as over here he would be going for 5 Champion Hurdle wins this year. Jezki has got closer to HF this year than last, and im almost certain Harrington doesnt have him 100% until March and the big one.

Gringo180 · 20-02-2015 09:43PM

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

If he's good enough to fly home, then he has the pace for two miles. Anyway goes back to my point, he motored up hill last year and he did likewise in the Neptune and that was where you'd like him to be doing his best work. Also don't buy into this belief he hasn't got enough speed .... which to be fair to yourself .... a lot of them people seem to be suggesting. If that is the case, it wasn't at all evident in last year's Christmas Hurdle.

Let's be fair as well Hurricane Fly is a two time winner and has won the 3 trials for this in Ireland so I wouldn't say he brings the standard up a bit! Anyway that's only my take on it....you're right otherwise....it'd be a shock of unbelievable proportions if the winner did not come from the top 4 in the betting. Although I'm a Kitten Rock fan as well and I think he'll do well.

I just think TNO is better over 2m4f. Was that Christmas Hurdle on heavy ground btw that may have brought his stamina into play? Good ground and 2 miles i think he will find a bit sharp, I like the horse as he always runs his race and has a great attitude but seen him being outpaced while the others where still on the bridle last year rings alarm bells for me.

mr.jingle · 20-02-2015 10:32PM

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Sorry i was being sarcastic. Just wanted to highlight how shockingly poor value they all are. I'm not one for laying horses but this has me thinking i should at least start trading them. Going to setup an account specifically for this tomorrow. GL

I'm glad you've more sense, can only imagine the amount of people doing just that tomorrow

Shemale · 21-02-2015 12:02AM

TNO doesn't have the tactical speed to win the Champion and his form this year is far worse than last year. It's a match Jezki V Faugheen, playing Jezki myself.

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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