Cheltenham Festival 2015

NaiveMelodies · 09-02-2015 02:17PM

lemush wrote: »

If there has ever been a horse who flatters to deceive time after time it's Boston Bob.

Yeah simply not good enough, beaten by enough yardsticks now. The horse is slow and can't be trusted, end of story.

Rubys selection of the equally frustrating On His Own was the final nail in the BB coffin for me.

posturingpat · 09-02-2015 02:18PM

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Really impressed with Apache Stronghold yesterday. Dug in deep for the win against a good animal in VL.
Answered a question mark anyway and I now really think he'll be bang there coming up the hill in the JLT.

You're in the same boat as me there,thought he might be a bit gutless previously.

lemush · 09-02-2015 02:23PM

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Really impressed with Apache Stronghold yesterday. Dug in deep for the win against a good animal in VL.
Answered a question mark anyway and I now really think he'll be bang there coming up the hill in the JLT.

His jumping has worried me in his 3 runs with a look to the JLT in which there will be no hiding place. Seems to me he could be a horse suited by jumping over 3m where they will go a stride slower but he doesn't exactly look a guaranteed stayer. Of all the main players in the JLT he's the one I'm confident of taking on.

lemush · 09-02-2015 02:24PM

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Yeah simply not good enough, beaten by enough yardsticks now. The horse is slow and can't be trusted, end of story.

Rubys selection of the equally frustrating On His Own was the final nail in the BB coffin for me.

Yep Ruby picking On His Own over him says it all really.

NaiveMelodies · 09-02-2015 02:32PM

lemush wrote: »

His jumping has worried me in his 3 runs with a look to the JLT in which there will be no hiding place. Seems to me he could be a horse suited by jumping over 3m where they will go a stride slower but he doesn't exactly look a guaranteed stayer. Of all the main players in the JLT he's the one I'm confident of taking on.

I think he'll be good enough, jumping going left has been excellent for me.
Might be forgetting some errors though?

Yeah, I wouldn't discount him over 3 either. Could simply be that he was beaten by a very nice sort when he was tried over 3 last month. He didn't stop or anything, was just out battled ultimately.

shy-tall-knight · 09-02-2015 03:34PM

Had a decent cut at Mala Beach for the 4miler today at 14/1. There is a strong possibility that both Don Poli and The Young Master are RSA bound which only leaves Sego Success and Wounded Warrior ahead of Mala Beach in the betting.
This race was mooted by Elliot at the start of the season, who knows what it takes to win this. One worry is the ground but it's usually at it's slowest on Day 1 as if there has been a dry spell, it will have been well watered for the start of the week.
Was happy to take the risk as 14's will be huge if the race cuts up as I think it will.

nobody told me · 09-02-2015 03:55PM

I doubt Mala beach will run in the 4miler, he wants it up to his knee

sdoc13 · 09-02-2015 04:08PM

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Had a decent cut at Mala Beach for the 4miler today at 14/1. There is a strong possibility that both Don Poli and The Young Master are RSA bound which only leaves Sego Success and Wounded Warrior ahead of Mala Beach in the betting.
This race was mooted by Elliot at the start of the season, who knows what it takes to win this. One worry is the ground but it's usually at it's slowest on Day 1 as if there has been a dry spell, it will have been well watered for the start of the week.
Was happy to take the risk as 14's will be huge if the race cuts up as I think it will.

I will be waiting bor nrnb. But agree with you would have a serious chance. Out and out stayer. This race is made for him

madmoose · 09-02-2015 04:13PM

Ive had a few bets in that race

Wounded warrior 10/1, prob be 5/1 fav when poli goes rsa and nina gets booked?

The job is right 25/1 ew, ran very well vs djakadam before falling at the last when 2nd and trainer has said he has his eye on this race.

Thunder and roses ew 25/1 sandra hughes confirmed he goes.

Cogry 36/1 betfair but only 3 quid on this last week and then he won the prep race that midnight prayer won on saturday gone.

All these will be alot shorter come the day.

ancapallliath · 09-02-2015 04:18PM

klairondavis wrote: »

Beef Or Salmon fell in 2003.

Sticking with Hourigan, Doran's Pride finished 3rd in 97 for him when running as a novice

Imhof Tank · 09-02-2015 04:47PM

posturingpat wrote: »

You're in the same boat as me there,thought he might be a bit gutless previously.

He was the clear pick of the paddock at the Christmas meeting and IMO was somewhat tenderly ridden that day as opposed to being out battled or looking gutless. You saw the benefit yesterday.

An object lesson in how to handle an exiting novice properly from the trainer/jockey team. He will be trained to the minute for the festival, can improve again from yesterday, and I fancy him big time in whatever he runs.

posturingpat · 09-02-2015 05:21PM

Someone mentioned the 4 miler above, I've 2 words Very wood.

Backstreet Moyes · 09-02-2015 05:41PM

lemush wrote: »

His jumping has worried me in his 3 runs with a look to the JLT in which there will be no hiding place. Seems to me he could be a horse suited by jumping over 3m where they will go a stride slower but he doesn't exactly look a guaranteed stayer. Of all the main players in the JLT he's the one I'm confident of taking on.

His jumping has been near flawless besides when he went left handed which he didn't enjoy at all. He also travels like a dream and showed heart yesterday when i thought he would get out battled. He is not a horse i would like to be taking on i have him backed at 16/1 and i expect him to be bang their at the finish.

Meath Centre Forward · 09-02-2015 06:04PM

The JLT looks by far the strongest of the 4 novice chases. With it now being a Grade 1, it's a good alternative to the RSA plus nobody wants to take on Un De Sceaux in the Arkle. With it being on the new course, it's that bit more of a test so suits the same type of horse who previously would've ran in the RSA.

So far it looks like Vautour, Ptit Zig, Apache Stronghold, Gilgamboa, Valseur Lido & Gitane Du Berlais will be running. It's a strong Irish hand and a strong Willie Mullins hand. I've been impressed with all 6, perhaps slightly negative on Vautour after his run at Christmas and only beating a rival the last day. Where previously he'd probably have been my pick of the 6. Valseur Lido maybe on faster ground might get found out too. It's a classy looking race though and stronger than the Ryanair in my opinion.

Would anyone agree?

That's where Boston Bob should run too as I've never been quite convinced that he's been at his best over three miles plus.

Backstreet Moyes · 09-02-2015 06:09PM

madmoose wrote: »

Ive had a few bets in that race

Wounded warrior 10/1, prob be 5/1 fav when poli goes rsa and nina gets booked?

Don Poli just gone out to 5/1 in a few places for the 4 miler so ye looks like he will probably head to the RSA. Their is surely a bit of value to be had before he goes elsewhere.

Just back Sego Success myself now at 10/1.

Meath Centre Forward · 09-02-2015 06:10PM

The Champion Chase is really turning into the race of the Festival for me. It's wide open and another contender in the shape of Mr. Mole.

The doubts around the past and the current champs Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy make it fascinating.

The improvement shown by the Nicholls pair Dodging Bullets and Mr Mole in impressively beating those past champs.

Potentially you can add in the Cheltenham specialist Champagne Fever (although if it were up to me, he'd run in the Ryanair).

The likes of Special Tiara, Hidden Cyclone & Simply Ned are all in the back of my head too.

Really exciting race. So many cases for and against them all and any confidence in any of them is completely speculative.

I find myself leaning towards Mr. Mole......

but am likely to change my mind several times before the race !!

posturingpat · 09-02-2015 06:17PM

lemush wrote: »

If there has ever been a horse who flatters to deceive time after time it's Boston Bob.

Would be done for schooling in public if yesterday was a beginners chase,have another watch. :pac:

lemush · 09-02-2015 07:00PM

posturingpat wrote: »

Would be done for schooling in public if yesterday was a beginners chase,have another watch. :pac:

You trying to say he was a non jigger in an Irish Hennessy? The horse didn't put it in at all when Townend got after him the eventually decided he'd run on when it was too late, like I said flattered to deceive.

posturingpat · 09-02-2015 07:06PM

lemush wrote: »

You trying to say he was a non jigger in an Irish Hennessy? The horse didn't put it in at all when Townend got after him the eventually decided he'd run on when it was too late, like I said flattered to deceive.

Non jigger/bigger days ahead/confidence booster call it what you like,it's ludicrous that it's happening but their are plenty of Grade 1s these days being used as preps :mad:

lemush · 09-02-2015 07:09PM

posturingpat wrote: »

Non jigger/bigger days ahead/confidence booster call it what you like,it's ludicrous that it's happening but their are plenty of Grade 1s these days being used as preps :mad:

Couldn't disagree more but each to their own. There's not much bigger days than an Irish Hennessy.

Peintre Celebre · 09-02-2015 07:17PM

Why would you not try in a gr.1?

posturingpat · 09-02-2015 07:53PM

He wasn't out not to win per se but the main plan for Yesterday i'd say was to get him settled out the back and jumping well which has been a problem previously and which was done successfully and then creep into the race and see how close you can get.
Only so many times these horses can go to the well and throwing Boston Bob at the last few fences and flogging him up the run in wouldn't have done him any favours for what i believe is the main target this season in the Gold cup. You only have to listen to Jim Culloty talking about Lord Windermere yesterday to understand how these horses aren't all out for the win when Gold cup is the main aim.

sting60 · 09-02-2015 08:00PM

rossom wrote: »

Sting if you really did back Coneygree at 40s/50s then you most certainly didn't say anything about it on here.

There is an option to do a search of each individual forum on here and the first time you brought him up on this forum was in the below message on 13th January.

If you want anyone to believe your claims then post up a screenshot of the antepost wager you struck as, on this forum, that was the earliest you talked about the horse.

I am totally not interested what you think of my posts/non posts my record at watching horses as potential is without question(maybe not here)When he finished 2nd on heavy ground against at fishers cross when he jumped two flights for every one he looked a gold cup horse in ever way imo.I can only go back to posts here regards coneygree 13/1/15 at that point he was any price you wanted,but obviously appoligse if my point was not absorbed.

lemush · 09-02-2015 08:09PM

posturingpat wrote: »

He wasn't out not to win per se but the main plan for Yesterday i'd say was to get him settled out the back and jumping well which has been a problem previously and which was done successfully and then creep into the race and see how close you can get.
Only so many times these horses can go to the well and throwing Boston Bob at the last few fences and flogging him up the run in wouldn't have done him any favours for what i believe is the main target this season in the Gold cup. You only have to listen to Jim Culloty talking about Lord Windermere yesterday to understand how these horses aren't all out for the win when Gold cup is the main aim.

Boston Bob is always settled towards the rear and his jumping has never really been an issue since the spring of 2013 when he made two novicey. Lord Windermere just never performs at Leopardstown and he knows his best chance of silverware is back at Cheltenha. Boston Bob has won two graded races at Leopardstown he just wasn't good enough yesterday and I think it takes a huge leap of faith to think he can win a Gold Cup but best of luck if you do invest.

lemush · 09-02-2015 08:13PM

lemush wrote: »

Boston Bob is always settled towards the rear and his jumping has never really been an issue since the spring of 2013 when he made two novicey. Lord Windermere just never performs at Leopardstown and he knows his best chance of silverware is back at Cheltenha. Boston Bob has won two graded races at Leopardstown he just wasn't good enough yesterday and I think it takes a huge leap of faith to think he can win a Gold Cup but best of luck if you do invest.

Two novicey errors that should say, edit function won't work.

posturingpat · 09-02-2015 08:26PM

I could see me not having a bet in the Gold cup at all for the 1st time in about 2 decades if it stays as open as it appears currently,nothing enthuses me too much but if i am to back anything it will be a little 10e/w on something like Boston Bob or shutthefrontdoor e/w, not a race i'm too excited by at all currently.

sting60 · 09-02-2015 08:28PM

IMO Phil smith is the god with regards assessing horses but I believe he is wrong with regards the king George.he believes silviniaco conti is by the post based on his ratings and tom segal agrees I totally disagree with both.everybody knows my opinion on coneygree but the Lexus will turn out to be pivotal imo and totally underestimated.

jimjamcos · 09-02-2015 08:40PM

I was keen on both Boston Bob and On His Own at prices for the Gold Cup a month or so back but couldn't be now. Still couldn't be having the favourite and still think Carlingford Lough is a horse best suited to Leopardstown. Sick I missed the 33s but Djakadam is relatively unexposed, definitely has class, and may be one to outrun current odds of 16/1. I originally thought he was a non-stayer in Hennessey but given the lack of a run, woeful ground, serious support for him beforehand he may be worth forgiving. Tentative but tempting me at a price

sting60 · 09-02-2015 08:49PM

jimjamcos wrote: »

I was keen on both Boston Bob and On His Own at prices for the Gold Cup a month or so back but couldn't be now. Still couldn't be having the favourite and still think Carlingford Lough is a horse best suited to Leopardstown. Sick I missed the 33s but Djakadam is relatively unexposed, definitely has class, and may be one to outrun current odds of 16/1. I originally thought he was a non-stayer in Hennessey but given the lack of a run, woeful ground, serious support for him beforehand he may be worth forgiving. Tentative but tempting me at a price

Was in gowran and saw nothing but geraghty said he was beaten going to two fences the ground was so dead.if you back Mullins factor in that it was also a handicap where nothing performed.

sting60 · 09-02-2015 09:46PM

Glens melody looked good in her trial for the mares,which she will run in.her half brother yet to run glens symphony very backward but a superstar.the whole world and his mother tried to buy him and good ground is vital by an orchestra mare.

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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