The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread II

Levante vs Malaga


The visitors already lead 2-0 from the first leg and nicely placed in 7th place in La Liga , just 5 points adrift of Seviila who are currently in the final Champions League spot and whom they travel to meet at the weekend, this is a typical match where i would normally be siding with the hosts, mindful that Malaga will progress with a draw or narrow defeat. However, surely this season has to be all about survival for Levante, they are in the drop zone , face a relegation six pointer with Elche in a few days time and then have a road derby game with Villarreal and we can argue that both are far more important than this fixture and that is how they look to be approaching things. Already without midfielder Pape Diop who is away on ACN duty and defender Víctor Pérez through injury, they have opted to leave out completely defender Navarro, forwards Morales, Casadesús, Ivanschitz and midfielder Sissoko. Those five have averaged over 14 starts between them in La Liga and the three strikers have scored 8 of just 13 goals that the hosts have scored in the league and it is clear where Levante feel their priorities lie and that is obviously the correct decision.

Reward for winning this game is almost certainly a quarter final double header with Sevilla over the next two midweeks, that will mean Malaga playing Los Rojiblancos three times inside 11 days with the league meeting sandwiched inbetween. I suspect neither of them really want that, but I doubt Levante feel up to two additional games verses a strong opponent and it is close to impossible to see how Malaga can avoid it, especially if Levante lack motivation. Therefore, it is best to make the most of tonight's fixture, try to take a win into the weekend fixture and to build some momentum. I assume that is the way they feel too, as to my surprise, they have come with their absolute strongest squad, including all 11 starters from their last La Liga game and any rotation looks set to be absolutely minimal.

We have to be wary about motivation and I am rarely keen to bet teams who do not need to win, but this makes a lot of sense and I expect an away win. 1.5 units Malaga -0.5 ball 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.

Levante:1 Jesús Fernández, 13 Mariño, 2 Iván, 3 Toño, 5 Héctor Rodas, 6 Vyntra,12 Juanfran,15 Nikos, 16 El Adoua,19 Pedro López, 8 El Zhar, 10 Rubén,14 Gavilán, 17 Xumetra, 24 Simao, 26 Camarasa, 7 Barral, 9 Rafael.

Malaga: Kameni, Amrabat, Antunes, Samuel, Ricardo Horta, Ochoa, Recio, Angeleri, Duda, Rosales, Casado, Luis Alberto, Miguel Torres, Filipenko, Juanmi, Juanpi, Samu Castillejo , Sergi Darder.

If you are following this game "in running", Malaga make good adjustments at the break and are an excellent 9-1 ( goals scored- conceded) in the first 30 minutes of the second half, Levante have conceded a league high 21 goals in the second half and are very poor through the middle third (31-60th min) when they are a terrible 2-14 goals (scored -conceded). It is very easy to see the stronger visitor dominating through this period.

source : clubgowi.com