The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

11-11-2014 11:22AM

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Cold plunge into north america, sparking big depressions in the Atlantic, a strengthening jet? Sound familiar? Well that's the latest GFS outputs. However, it is only November 11th so a long road ahead this winter.

im new to this, familiar? good familiar, 2019/2010 ??? aww sheeeeeiiiiit!

Eigeen · 11-11-2014 11:27AM

Red Pepper wrote: »

I have a strong feeling in my bones that this winter will be an icy/snowy one. It's hard to explain but I believe it to be true. I love the outdoors and I love winter hill walking so I am very excited.
I don't know much about weather models so let me explain my recent confidence....Large areas of my lawn suffered during the dry summer and I have taken it on myself to restore it. The grass is yellowish and sparse in these areas. So I have started urinating on the lawn in a controlled manner to try and fill the soil with nitrates and urea over the winter months to be ready for Spring. So it means I am out in my garden (I live in a rural area) every evening/night twice or three times spraying all over the place while looking at the night sky. I don't know what it is exactly but something about the clouds and the stars and the general feel from the air leads me to believe that a cold winter is in store. I will also have the darkest greenest lushest grass next year. Here's hoping!

So literally you feel it in your water!! Brilliant!!

Speak Now · 11-11-2014 11:43AM

rusty cole wrote: »

im new to this, familiar? good familiar, 2019/2010 ??? aww sheeeeeiiiiit!

Last winter.

Sparks · 11-11-2014 12:52PM

HighLine wrote: »

the roads were passable once you know how to drive.

I love the way you say that like it was no big thing.
Ten minutes on the M50 in the morning should cure you of that for life

Villain · 11-11-2014 12:55PM

Lucreto wrote: »

I don't know if this has been posted yet.

The october pattern index wasn't very accurate last year but it is interesting and if you take that along with the forecast of a negative AO and the possibility of split vortex you could get carried away e.g. from the OPI

OPI index concluded at the end of October with a very low value, lower than the -2 threshold value. Specifically, this is the second lowest value ever registered since 1976, with the lowest being that of October 2009 (-3.3).

We all know what happened after October 2009...............:eek:

diceyd · 11-11-2014 01:34PM

Regardless if it snows or not,i really hope it does,thanks to yous all for the ongoing information,i dont know much but its very interesting reading,thanks again guys

s.m · 11-11-2014 02:11PM

in my view ... another typical wet winter any snow will occur in either jan or feb

icesnowfrost · 11-11-2014 02:32PM

They at it again. But how much truth is in there ?

icesnowfrost · 11-11-2014 03:36PM

NAO going negative the end of the month into Dec. Hope this pushes the jet/westerlies south enough to draw in some proper cold weather

gugsy · 11-11-2014 10:01PM

Jet stream being push south for the next 10 days. Pity this wasn't in the middle of winter as we would be sure to have a nice cold spell.http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=glob&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=jet3&HH=3&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0[/URL]

hatrickpatrick · 11-11-2014 11:42PM

Most FI models are now showing a recovering polar vortex in the +10 days timeframe. Just want to point out though that the GFS from this day in 2010 showed only wobbly PV disruption, and certainly none of the Greenland blocking or Atlantic blocking which would subsequently develop.
This game is about trends, and for FI to be throwing up these scenarios so early in the season is still a great sign, regardless of how often that gets dashed before we get the payoff - it shows fundamentally that the criteria needed to create such an event are indeed hovering around, which this time last year they were not. It's only a question of getting them to swoop.

maquiladora · 12-11-2014 12:27AM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Most FI models are now showing a recovering polar vortex in the +10 days timeframe. Just want to point out though that the GFS from this day in 2010 showed only wobbly PV disruption, and certainly none of the Greenland blocking or Atlantic blocking which would subsequently develop.
This game is about trends, and for FI to be throwing up these scenarios so early in the season is still a great sign, regardless of how often that gets dashed before we get the payoff - it shows fundamentally that the criteria needed to create such an event are indeed hovering around, which this time last year they were not. It's only a question of getting them to swoop.

Are you sure? :P

12Z GFS 12th November 2010. 216 hours. Atlantic ridge, developing Greenland high.

gfsnh-2010111212-0-216.png?12

216 hours later...that's exactly what really happened. :pac:

maquiladora · 12-11-2014 09:16AM

While there isn't really anything too interesting in the FI range of the models at the moment, things are looking good in terms of strat developments. December could be an exciting month.

icesnowfrost · 12-11-2014 10:47AM

Netweather going for mild over the next 2 weeks. And when asked they said they don't see much chance of cold weather in the next 6 to 8 weeks.
Bit of a bold statement from them but interesting to see how it all plays out. The next few weeks are going to be fly by the seat of your pants stuff.

Villain · 12-11-2014 10:58AM

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Netweather going for mild over the next 2 weeks. And when asked they said they don't see much chance of cold weather in the next 6 to 8 weeks.
Bit of a bold statement from them but interesting to see how it all plays out. The next few weeks are going to be fly by the seat of your pants stuff.

Nick Finnis had an interesting piece on Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6284

hatrickpatrick · 12-11-2014 03:59PM

maquiladora wrote: »

Are you sure? :P

12Z GFS 12th November 2010. 216 hours. Atlantic ridge, developing Greenland high.

216 hours later...that's exactly what really happened. :pac:

Well balls.

Not sure which archive I was mistakenly looking at then

Emmettc · 12-11-2014 10:46PM

In Simon Keeling's latest youtube video is stating that there are similar signs in the models now to the models that were there prior to the 2010 winter (strat warming, sea temps etc).. some of the building blocks are starting to come into place...

We shall see

Sorry i can't post a link as i'm a new user..

Search for "Look Ahead - Signs of Winter? (12/11/14)" in youtube

icesnowfrost · 12-11-2014 11:46PM

Emmettc wrote: »

In Simon Keeling's latest youtube video is stating that there are similar signs in the models now to the models that were there prior to the 2010 winter (strat warming, sea temps etc).. some of the building blocks are starting to come into place... We shall see

Sorry i can't post a link as i'm a new user.. Search for "Look Ahead - Signs of Winter? (12/11/14)" in youtube

U gotta love Simon keeling, I love his video's

Tindie · 13-11-2014 04:33PM

I just went back ten years , to look at 2004 Christmas forecast

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9JY1o3nr_aQ&list=PLWbt7RniF2arqrIGmiOQ7T_l1f51s9747

I think this year be similar ^ to that (I just guessing )

.

magicmoves · 13-11-2014 05:24PM

I hope it snow so I do not have to go to work

))))))))

snaps · 14-11-2014 05:24AM

It seems the USA is getting a cold blast like last year. This throws deep depressions into the Atlantic. At the moment all the signs seem to point to the same as last year.

pistolpetes11 · 14-11-2014 10:10AM

snaps wrote: »

It seems the USA is getting a cold blast like last year. This throws deep depressions into the Atlantic. At the moment all the signs seem to point to the same as last year.

The setup is nothing likes last years at all

Although Ive been very busy and not keeping a keen eye on things but I had not seen / heard things have taken a huge turn for the worse ?

rickdangerouss · 14-11-2014 11:20AM

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The setup is nothing likes last years at all

Although Ive been very busy and not keeping a keen eye on things but I had not seen / heard things have taken a huge turn for the worse ?

The Stratosphere side of things, that is now trending away from the greatest of the last few weeks, also if it does hit, chances are Ireland will be in the wrong area too. Some snow melt has taken place in Russia.

That said, winter has not started yet, Snow is due to get back on track\advance quicker in the next week or so.

The USA Is getting snowed under now. This time last year, having WIO posts, did not look like a bad bet at all.

Whatever happens, this year looks like "abit of everything will happen".

The same as MT was posting about.

Red Pepper · 14-11-2014 11:48AM

rickdangerouss wrote: »

The Stratosphere side of things, that is now trending away from the greatest of the last few weeks, also if it does hit, chances are Ireland will be in the wrong area too. Some snow melt has taken place in Russia.

That said, winter has not started yet, Snow is due to get back on track\advance quicker in the next week or so.

The USA Is getting snowed under now. This time last year, having WIO posts, did not look like a bad bet at all.

Whatever happens, this year looks like "abit of everything will happen".

The same as MT was posting about.

MT also predicted this in his winter outlook: "The colder portions of the winter, from my index value research, would appear to be roughly once every month, but more specifically, mid-November, early December, "

maquiladora · 14-11-2014 11:51AM

Red Pepper wrote: »

MT also predicted this in his winter outlook: "The colder portions of the winter, from my index value research, would appear to be roughly once every month, but more specifically, mid-November, early December, "

Sadly, we can rule out mid-November and probably early December too the way things are starting to look.

I'm still hoping for a cold spell around the Christmas period, just for the festive atmosphere.

Loughc · 14-11-2014 03:59PM

i would love nothing more than snow but all I can see happening again this Winter is wind, rain and slightly above average tempatures for this time of year.

Tabnabs · 14-11-2014 04:09PM

Loughc wrote: »

i would love nothing more than snow but all I can see happening again this Winter is wind, rain and slightly above average tempatures for this time of year.

You don't belong here, my friend...

Loughc · 14-11-2014 05:05PM

But I love snow... Just applying reason this year after being disappointed for the past few years.

amdgilmore · 14-11-2014 06:10PM

I am slowly reconciling myself to the thought that it will never ever snow again.

I can't go on being let down every winter.

Larbre34 · 14-11-2014 06:29PM

amdgilmore wrote: »

I am slowly reconciling myself to the thought that it will never ever snow again.

I can't go on being let down every winter.

Were u not born 3 years ago?

There was at least a 20 year fix that time

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Comments