The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Its Only Ray Parlour · 08-11-2014 12:54PM

This would be awesome.

ECM1-240.GIF?08-12

hatrickpatrick · 08-11-2014 12:56PM

Its Only Ray Parlour wrote: »

This would be awesome.

Would it? This was the chart I was mentioning earlier when I said the GFS is now showing blocking in the wrong place - could a chart like this eventually lead to cold and/or snow for Ireland?

maquiladora · 08-11-2014 01:17PM

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

Can u find these EMC charts on google or the ones that change every minute. The one with the colours? Where can I find them to have a look? Or could someone so kindly post them on here

The ECMWF? Updates twice a day. You can find there here :
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

lolie · 08-11-2014 01:46PM

A certain well known kiwi forecaster is predicting most snow to fall from end of november to mid december.
Looks like we'll be getting mild weather so.

snowstorm445 · 08-11-2014 02:40PM

Just another wintry GIF to appease the snow bunnies.

Harps · 08-11-2014 05:03PM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Would it? This was the chart I was mentioning earlier when I said the GFS is now showing blocking in the wrong place - could a chart like this eventually lead to cold and/or snow for Ireland?

That chart is showing an easterly air flow stretching from the Atlantic right into Russia, initially it'd just be cool and dry in Ireland but if the setup stayed in place for more than a few days then Arctic/Siberian air would start to get dragged eastward towards Ireland.

It's a bit early in the year yet, if we had that chart in January then you'd be looking at extreme cold almost immediately but as eastern Europe isn't particularly cold yet it'd take a far greater fetch to get the cold to Ireland.

As November 2010 showed though it's perfectly possible this early in the season

123 LC · 09-11-2014 01:32PM

Would I be right in saying that Europe seems to be on track to get a cold spell from around the 20th onwards? (from a complete newb looking at the charts). I'm in Europe at the moment and not Ireland so that's why I'd like to know this

snowstorm445 · 09-11-2014 01:50PM

123 LC wrote: »

Would I be right in saying that Europe seems to be on track to get a cold spell from around the 20th onwards? (from a complete newb looking at the charts). I'm in Europe at the moment and not Ireland so that's why I'd like to know this

Still too far away to tell. It remains a possibility, but several models disagree and depending on where you are in Europe it will probably be chilly rather than cold (certainly upper air temperatures probably won't be cold enough if your looking for snow, for Western Europe at least).

hatrickpatrick · 09-11-2014 08:09PM

Few FI downgrades today in the GFS unfortunately, Polar Vortex is fighting back with a vengeance.
Not a disaster though, unless it becomes established as a trend. Keenly awaiting the 18z...

BLIZZARD7 · 09-11-2014 08:49PM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Few FI downgrades today in the GFS unfortunately, Polar Vortex is fighting back with a vengeance.
Not a disaster though, unless it becomes established as a trend. Keenly awaiting the 18z...

ECM 12z is generally more accurate than the gfs 18z and shows no such signs of the polar vortex reforming. While its a different evolution to the 00z this morning its still a very good hemispheric position to be in to let colder conditions set in later in the month/December. The trend is much the same today as it has been for the past few days.. Still no polar vortex taking hold to our north-especially not over greenland. Colder air should filter down into scandi and Europe but possibly not reach us this time around. Good setup for heading into winter though and a million times better than last year.

Dan

BLIZZARD7 · 09-11-2014 11:29PM

The 18z gfs and parallel runs are a nice upgrade on the 12z's. Proper heights over Greenland with a completely split vortex... This will lead to a repeating pattern.

Charts are becoming more and more Nov/Dec 2010 esque.. just 2 weeks or so earlier this time. While I dont think we should get excited yet I am very much liking the output we are seeing from the models. The stratosphere is showing wave 1 and possibly wave 2 activity coming soon.. Where this wave 2 activity happens is going to dictate our weather pattern for the end of November into December. This is all against good background signals for the rest of the winter. Things are looking good... Model watching is going to be very interesting over the next few days-weeks I feel.

Dan

Adrian J Lynch · 09-11-2014 11:30PM

I really hope there is going to be snow

Redsunset · 10-11-2014 12:22AM

Adrian J Lynch wrote: »

I really hope there is going to be snow

I just love this post lol.

If nothing else, for the the moment the current synoptics being dished out are great entertainment.

snaps · 10-11-2014 07:51AM

What I've noticed is that the cold is always there at the end of the runs and deep into fi. A week agao the cold was pushing into Europe on and around the 16/17 November. Now its showing 23/24 November. As each day passes it gets pushed back a day too.

amdgilmore · 10-11-2014 08:01AM

Seems like all the impartial long range forecasts (ie not drawn up by snow-fans or attention seekers like exacta) are showing relatively mild temperatures right up to Christmas eve. Highs of 9 with lows of 2-4.

Yes I'm aware of the unreliability of LRFs from the major weather providers. But historically they have been more accurate than the predictions in this thread.

Loughc · 10-11-2014 08:10AM

So far this morning on my facebook timeline I've seen an article warning we're gonna be hit by the tail end of a massive American snowstorm and I've seen one saying we'll be hit by the tail end of a massive Russian snowstorm.

I just want to shake they people who write these and who share them. Stop getting our hopes up with made up ****e that you hope will sell a few papers for you!!

Speak Now · 10-11-2014 08:15AM

The tail end of a massive American snowstorm LOL! Maybe in the day after tomorrow!!!!

snaps · 10-11-2014 08:16AM

And the uk met office has said the uk is going to have an above average mild, wet and windy early part of winter with the Atlantic influence very strong. Was on sky news this morning.

maquiladora · 10-11-2014 08:40AM

snaps wrote: »

And the uk met office has said the uk is going to have an above average mild, wet and windy early part of winter with the Atlantic influence very strong. Was on sky news this morning.

Yes, its what their long range models have been showing. But in fairness those models are wrong about as often as they are right. Almost irrelevant really.

snaps · 10-11-2014 08:57AM

But in saying that, here in Eastern Europe, we are having very similar weather patterns as last year. Very dry and warm Autumn, some days still near 20c. No rain at all. Also October was very cold at night (Like last year), followed by a very warm November, again like last year.

Scandinavia though is having a complete contrast from last year as its been very cold and snowy (Especially in the north and east) since mid October.

My friends in Lapland didn't see snow last year until January. This year they've had laying snow since 2nd week October.

icesnowfrost · 10-11-2014 10:20AM

Fb is really gone nuts this morning with beast from the east. And ukmo is gone with mild muck. The tabloids are getting worse every year with this Long range crap.
Although the signs are looking a lot better then they did last year.
Anyone who no who rays weather page(on fb) is and the credibility of it

Loughc · 10-11-2014 10:24AM

It's looking likely it'll be a windy wet winter. I HATE that type of winter, give me the dry, cold weather anyday!

Darwin · 10-11-2014 10:27AM

Some interesting posts by Matt Hugo on netweather here in relation to current warmings in the Stratosphere and the potential for cold later in December:
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-15

Also the forecast based on the OPI and SAI index are released today which should make for interesting reading too.

BLIZZARD7 · 10-11-2014 11:46AM

Loughc wrote: »

It's looking likely it'll be a windy wet winter. I HATE that type of winter, give me the dry, cold weather anyday!

I wouldnt say likely. Possible yes, not likely given where we are now though. Its just as likely to be cold and dry.

Dan

Loughc · 10-11-2014 01:09PM

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I wouldnt say likely. Possible yes, not likely given where we are now though. Its just as likely to be cold and dry.

Dan

I'm just basing it going off for the forcast for the next week. I would hug you if we get nice cold and dry weather for the majority of the remaining of the Winter period!

YouTookMyName · 10-11-2014 01:22PM

Ridiculous article in today's mirrior. Who's gets paid to write this scaremongering crap.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-beast-east-way-4601758

Loughc · 10-11-2014 01:28PM

Loughc wrote: »

So far this morning on my facebook timeline I've seen an article warning we're gonna be hit by the tail end of a massive American snowstorm and I've seen one saying we'll be hit by the tail end of a massive Russian snowstorm.

I just want to shake they people who write these and who share them. Stop getting our hopes up with made up ****e that you hope will sell a few papers for you!!

YouTookMyName wrote: »

Ridiculous article in today's mirrior. Who's gets paid to write this scaremongering crap.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-beast-east-way-4601758

Yep this is one of the crapstorms I was talking about earlier..... Le sigh... it's the people who share the link on FB with the caption be safe out there hunzos xoxox deserve to be shot.....

Clonmel1000 · 10-11-2014 01:31PM

YouTookMyName wrote: »

Ridiculous article in today's mirrior. Who's gets paid to write this scaremongering crap.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-beast-east-way-4601758

do the UK met office forecast 3 months in advance and of so are they actually saying that there will be snow? I know that this won't be popular here but to the posters who earlier were wishing for this kind of weather seriously WTF? What we can say for definite is that the next 7-10 days are going to bring wet windy and average November temps. Beyond that is anyoned guess but given Irelands location and influences climate wise I'd be very sceptical of anything approaching even the winter 2009/10 levels of cold. That's not to say we won't get some cold weather it just won't be what we have only got 3 or 4 times in living memory...

icesnowfrost · 10-11-2014 01:43PM

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

do the UK met office forecast 3 months in advance and of so are they actually saying that there will be snow? I know that this won't be popular here but to the posters who earlier were wishing for this kind of weather seriously WTF? What we can say for definite is that the next 7-10 days are going to bring wet windy and average November temps. Beyond that is anyoned guess but given Irelands location and influences climate wise I'd be very sceptical of anything approaching even the winter 2009/10 levels of cold. That's not to say we won't get some cold weather it just won't be what we have only got 3 or 4 times in living memory...

U do realise this is a snow/cold winter dedicated page

wexie · 10-11-2014 01:56PM

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

What we can say for definite is that the next 7-10 days are going to bring wet windy and average November temps.

You can give a definite weather forecast for the next 10 days?

Pretty impressive

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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