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Ebola virus outbreak
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A rational approach to the Ebola news coverage from, of all places, Fox News. His advice at the 3.35 mark puts the 'outbreak' into perspective -
Wish his Fox News colleagues would listen to him!0 -
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Creative Juices wrote: »Surprising from Fox alright but there are some awful stupid Americans so panic could start much quicker than it would here.
I am constantly surprised that he has not been given his walking papers. Everyone
else on Fox News comes across as unbalanced!! The hysteria on Megyn Kelly's
programme is mind blowing!!
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ProfessorPlum wrote: »I hope that's not a little dig at me after out conversation yesterday - that was about misinformation regarding modes of transmission, remember?
Now it would only be the very naive among us who would believe that a hospital administration (or almost any organisation run almost exclusively by bean counters) would not be capable of getting involved in serious amount of arse covering in a situation like this. It's almost even more amazing that people think that hospitals are kitted out with the 'proper gear' for this kind of disease. They are not. My first reaction when I heard the nurses' 'breach of protocol', both in Texas and Spain was ' well, that's a little convenient, isn't it'. There's understandably a lot of 'learning as we go' here. I think the hospitals in question would be better served if they were a little more honest. At this rate they are loosing the confidence of their communities rapidly, and that will only lead to panic and hysteria.
As a point of information, although I think it's a technicality at this point, Nigeria and Senegal are not officially Ebola free yet. The WHO will declare them free after 42 days (Senegal tomorrow and Nigeria Monday), so including those two, we have 5 African countries affected with this outbreak, and a separate outbreak in DRC.
No Plum wanst directed at you. I actually agree with a lot of what you say and disagree with some of it though in the main enjoy reading what you post not sure if enjoy is the correct the word though I think you know what Im getting at. you seem quite knowledgeable about plenty of things so no I dont believe you personally are naive. you think the hospitals should be more honest? how about the CDC and politically corrects muppets in Washington be more honest with their "this is contained little risk of spreading we are well equipped to deal with this" bullsh1t. clearly the nurses and front line people tasked with dealing with this would say otherwise. and to try and pin the blame on the nurses and medical staff, who according to them are neither prepared nor trained to deal with this, contrary to what the cdc and politicians are spouting. its bad form. its unfair. we dont have time "to learn" if people in hospitals are suppose to be dealing with this then they need to know what they are doing and have the right set up. the powers that be tell us we must contain it we must do this we must do that. yet they wont shut down west African airspace nor restrict the movement of people. we have bureaucrats pretending to take the lead and really they are incapable. it should be the scientific community in control of this. not politically correct incapable bumbling phuckin nothing to see here sure its grand bureaucrats.
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No Plum wanst directed at you. I actually agree with a lot of what you say and disagree with some of it though in the main enjoy reading what you post not sure if enjoy is the correct the word though I think you know what Im getting at. you seem quite knowledgeable about plenty of things so no I dont believe you personally are naive. you think the hospitals should be more honest? how about the CDC and politically corrects muppets in Washington be more honest with their "this is contained little risk of spreading we are well equipped to deal with this" bullsh1t. clearly the nurses and front line people tasked with dealing with this would say otherwise. and to try and pin the blame on the nurses and medical staff, who according to them are neither prepared nor trained to deal with this, contrary to what the cdc and politicians are spouting. its bad form. its unfair. we dont have time "to learn" if people in hospitals are suppose to be dealing with this then they need to know what they are doing and have the right set up. the powers that be tell us we must contain it we must do this we must do that. yet they wont shut down west African airspace nor restrict the movement of people. we have bureaucrats pretending to take the lead and really they are incapable. it should be the scientific community in control of this. not politically correct incapable bumbling phuckin nothing to see here sure its grand bureaucrats.
It's unfortunate that even in this well meant, supposedly well thought out report - simple critical errors are being made.
He says that they need 70% in care facilities (i.e. isolated) by 01.12.2014.
He says that by 01.12.2014 current projections are that there will be 10,000 new cases per week (as previously reported/discussed here).
He says that under current projections they expect to have 4300 beds in ebola facilities by 01.12.2014.
He says therefore they need 2700 more beds by 01.12.2014 to reach the required 70% target.
What he (somehow) fails to recognise is that by 01.12.2014 there will be far in excess of 10,000 existing cases.
What he (somehow) fails to recognise is that on 01.12.2014 there will be a projected 10,000 new cases that week.
What he (somehow) fails to recognise is that on 08.12.2014 there will be a projected 10,000 new cases that week.
What he (somehow) fails to recognise is that on 15.12.2014 and 23.12.2014 there will be a projected 20,000 new cases that fortnight.
What he should realise (because its primary school maths) is that 7000 beds will never be 70% of the cumulative figures at 31.12.2014, and people who need care don't magically disappear once they are placed in a bed.
70% of the total figure at that stage will be somewhere in the region of 25000-30000 beds, some will have died in the meantime (6-16 days) some will recover, but its certainly not close to 7000.
These are the people in charge. This is why there is reason to worry.
Its basic maths - not rocket science. :mad::mad::mad::mad:0 -
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Wish his Fox News colleagues would listen to him!Creative Juices wrote: »Surprising from Fox alright but there are some awful stupid Americans so panic could start much quicker than it would here.I am constantly surprised that he has not been given his walking papers. Everyone
else on Fox News comes across as unbalanced!! The hysteria on Megyn Kelly's
programme is mind blowing!!
The calm report is probably because the markets are looking at risk of crashing which (I guess) would cost the owners (and vested interests) of Fox a huge sum of money. Fox gains nothing by spreading panic about Ebola.0 -
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No Plum wanst directed at you. I actually agree with a lot of what you say and disagree with some of it though in the main enjoy reading what you post not sure if enjoy is the correct the word though I think you know what Im getting at. you seem quite knowledgeable about plenty of things so no I dont believe you personally are naive. you think the hospitals should be more honest? how about the CDC and politically corrects muppets in Washington be more honest with their "this is contained little risk of spreading we are well equipped to deal with this" bullsh1t. clearly the nurses and front line people tasked with dealing with this would say otherwise. and to try and pin the blame on the nurses and medical staff, who according to them are neither prepared nor trained to deal with this, contrary to what the cdc and politicians are spouting. its bad form. its unfair. we dont have time "to learn" if people in hospitals are suppose to be dealing with this then they need to know what they are doing and have the right set up. the powers that be tell us we must contain it we must do this we must do that. yet they wont shut down west African airspace nor restrict the movement of people. we have bureaucrats pretending to take the lead and really they are incapable. it should be the scientific community in control of this. not politically correct incapable bumbling phuckin nothing to see here sure its grand bureaucrats.
Yeah, I don't think you're going to get many people disagreeing with you that it was badly managed, either from a medical or a political / public awareness pov.
Unfortunately, the fact is, and there isn't a whole lot we can do to magic it away, but hospital and medical/nursing staff are just not trained or equipped to deal with this kind of situation. Like it or now, we will have to learn. I believe some centres are spending some time at this right now, but the logistics of getting that kind of training out to every hospital and health centre, even in this country never mind the US is overwhelming. And who are going to be the teachers? There is going to be a certain amount of trial and error here.
Having said all that, I am confident that the US will contain their outbreak, just like Nigeria did. The more important message to get out there is what people should do if they think they or their family have symptoms (and spell out what the risks for contact are) rather than the entire population worrying about the non existing risks of touching a door handle in South Dakota.0 -
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