Ebola virus outbreak

ProfessorPlum · 15-10-2014 10:35AM

BBC reporting another healthcare worker in Texas tested positive

snubbleste · 15-10-2014 10:36AM

Another health worker has ebola in Texas
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29628622

littlemac1980 · 15-10-2014 10:39AM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

BBC reporting another healthcare worker in Texas tested positive

Oh FFS! Not good!

forzacalcio · 15-10-2014 10:42AM

Is it possible they could shut down air travel?

snubbleste · 15-10-2014 10:43AM

forzacalcio wrote: »

Is it possible they could shut down air travel?

Yes. Likely, no.

littlemac1980 · 15-10-2014 10:46AM

Beano wrote: »

http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29624762

Is it any wonder that this is spreading as fast as it is? what sort of savage just dumps the dead body of a relative in the streets?

I think its more an indication of the desperate situation that those people, and that country is now in.

I personally don't believe even First-World Ireland could manage the number of cases Sierra Leone currently has (and the many more they are facing - which are currently incubating). We don't have the required resources.

There are 3000+ people who are currently infected and must be isolated and treated as best as they can. The dying and dead need to be properly dealt with and bodies disposed of. All by people who are at risk of contracting the deadly virus themselves.

It's totally understandable that in such a grave and terrible situation bodies would be left untouched on streets or in homes.

There just aren't the resources available to properly deal with them. If a doctor, soldier, family member or anyone else tries to move that body without somewhere to bring it and all the approriate hazard protection equipment to do so, then there will only be another case or 2 or 5 or 10 to deal with.

Maximus Alexander · 15-10-2014 10:46AM

Annual HIV deaths: ~1,600,000
Annual Malaria deaths: ~627,000
Annual Influenza deaths: 250,000 - 500,000

Ebola deaths to date: < 5500

It's time to crack open our skulls and feast on the goo inside!

littlemac1980 · 15-10-2014 10:50AM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Annual HIV deaths: ~1,600,000
Annual Malaria deaths: ~627,000
Annual Influenza deaths: 250,000 - 500,000

Ebola deaths to date: < 5500

It's time to crack open our skulls and feast on the goo inside!

Apples and Oranges, and unnecessary repetition of a silly point made previously by many who (understandably) don't understand the uniqueness and seriousness of this cirsis.

I suggest you take some time to read this thread.

Beano · 15-10-2014 10:53AM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

I think its more an indication of the desperate situation that those people, and that country is now in.

I personally don't believe even First-World Ireland could manage the number of cases Sierra Leone currently has (and the many more they are facing - which are currently incubating). We don't have the required resources.

There are 3000+ people who are currently infected and must be isolated and treated as best as they can. The dying and dead need to be properly dealt with and bodies disposed of. All by people who are at risk of contracting the deadly virus themselves.

It's totally understandable that in such a grave and terrible situation bodies would be left untouched on streets or in homes.

There just aren't the resources available to properly deal with them. If a doctor, soldier, family member or anyone else tries to move that body without somewhere to bring it and all the approriate hazard protection equipment to do so, then there will only be another case or 2 or 5 or 10 to deal with.

But given that we dont dump dead bodies in the streets in this country i dont think we would ever face a situation where we had 3000 infected.

littlemac1980 · 15-10-2014 10:55AM

Beano wrote: »

But given that we dont dump dead bodies in the streets in this country i dont think we would ever face a situation where we had 3000 infected.

I think you've missed my point. Nevermind.

Akrasia · 15-10-2014 10:57AM

Beano wrote: »

Perhaps it wasnt the most helpful language. But it does explain why this virus is spreading the way it is. And why it would not be the massive problem in the western world that the scaremongers are making it out to be.

I don't think it will be the same kind of utterly overwhelming crisis as it is in west africa, but a global ebola pandemic would have massive consequences on the world economy. If we don't control it in west africa, it could take hold the rest of africa and asia and unless a reliable vaccine is developed and distributed, we will be facing a constant trickle of new ebola cases in western countries.

If I was a front line health worker or anyone who works in and around hospitals, I would be very nervous right now. if panic sets in, who knows what will happen.

The point I'm trying to make is that we should absolutely not be complacent and the international community should be spending all available resources on limiting the spread of this virus before it becomes a global pandemic.

Global pandemics of influenza happen every year but the flu is usually treated by the patient just staying at home and avoiding contact with other people and most healthcare workers will be vaccinated against the common strains of the illness.

With Ebola, without treatment, up to 70% of people will die, cleaning up afterwards is one of the most dangerous parts of dealing with the infection.

wexie · 15-10-2014 10:58AM

Beano wrote: »

But given that we dont dump dead bodies in the streets in this country i dont think we would ever face a situation where we had 3000 infected.

We don't at the moment, what about though (have a think about this) if the dead bodies required very specialised equipment and care to be properly disposed of without causing any further infection.

Quite how many ambulance teams with the right equipment and training do you suppose there are in Ireland that could do this? And how many of those outside of Dublin/Cork/Limerick/Galway?

Half of the HSE goes on strike when there's a report they might have to start using cheaper toilet paper. What do you think would happen when they need to start dealing with this kinda stuff?

littlemac1980 · 15-10-2014 10:59AM

Health officials have interviewed the latest patient to quickly identify any contacts or potential exposures, and those people will be monitored," the health department said. "The type of monitoring depends on the nature of their interactions and the potential they were exposed to the virus."

But the pool of contacts could be small, since Ebola can only be transmitted when an infected person shows symptoms. Less than a day passed between the onset of the worker's symptoms and isolation at the hospital

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/15/health/texas-ebola-outbreak/

It looks like - thankfully - they may have caught this case fairly quick, and given the timeframe between the onset of symptoms and the "interrogation" regarding contacts, one would hope a fairly accurate list of potential contacts can be made.

Still - it's not clear if the person was working or semi-isolated what their routine was since the monitoring - that's not particularly helpful from a public information POV.

Less than a day is a lot better than 6 days out and about - but it all depends on context.

Beano · 15-10-2014 11:00AM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

I think you've missed my point. Nevermind.

I understood your point completely. We are facing a totally different situation in Ireland. The situation in sierra leone and other countries needs to be addressed immediately. This outbreak cannot be contained while bodies are being dumped in the streets.

RobertKK · 15-10-2014 11:01AM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Annual HIV deaths: ~1,600,000
Annual Malaria deaths: ~627,000
Annual Influenza deaths: 250,000 - 500,000

Ebola deaths to date: < 5500

It's time to crack open our skulls and feast on the goo inside!

Two problems with those stats.

Ebola is infecting more and more people, the spread rate is increasing, combined with the death rate for the virus increasing from 50% to 70%.
If we get to 10,000 new infections per week by December, we could have 7,000 people a week dying from Ebola.

littlemac1980 · 15-10-2014 11:01AM

Beano wrote: »

I understood your point completely. We are facing a totally different situation in Ireland. The situation in sierra leone and other countries needs to be addressed immediately. This outbreak cannot be contained while bodies are being dumped in the streets.

:rolleyes:

wildefalcon · 15-10-2014 11:02AM

How many trained health workers would 3,000 people infected with this plague need to be treated without causing further infection?

Allowing for down time, weekends, sickness cover and lab work/back office? Incineration, safe funeral arrangements etc.

littlemac1980 · 15-10-2014 11:03AM

wildefalcon wrote: »

How many trained health workers would 3000 people need to be treated without causing further infection?

Allowing for down time, weekends, sickness cover and back office?

Personally, I believe in a Country the size of Ireland, and with our limited resources, way way more than are available.

Maximus Alexander · 15-10-2014 11:04AM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Apples and Oranges, and unnecessary repetition of a silly point made previously by many who (understandably) don't understand the uniqueness and seriousness of this cirsis.

I suggest you take some time to read this thread.

Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?

Beano · 15-10-2014 11:04AM

wexie wrote: »

We don't at the moment, what about though (have a think about this) if the dead bodies required very specialised equipment and care to be properly disposed of without causing any further infection.

Quite how many ambulance teams with the right equipment and training do you suppose there are in Ireland that could do this? And how many of those outside of Dublin/Cork/Limerick/Galway?

Half of the HSE goes on strike when there's a report they might have to start using cheaper toilet paper. What do you think would happen when they need to start dealing with this kinda stuff?

the dead bodies require no more specialised treatment than a live patient with ebola. they dont suddenly become more infectious when they die.

wexie · 15-10-2014 11:07AM

Beano wrote: »

the dead bodies require no more specialised treatment than a live patient with ebola. they dont suddenly become more infectious when they die.

well....no they don't of course. My point was that if someone were to die at home, who's going to come collect the body?

You can be damn sure that all the trained and equipped healthcare workers will be in hospital trying to take care of the people still alive.

While you're probably right in saying it's not likely to happen in Ireland it's certainly not unthinkable.

littlemac1980 · 15-10-2014 11:08AM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?

Yeah - you're 100% correct

Ebola and HIV can be compared in real real simple terms, hahaha.... :rolleyes:

I'm not gonna waste any time trying to convincing you.

There's one or two like you on here every couple days. Just read some the thread and some articles.

Beano · 15-10-2014 11:08AM

wexie wrote: »

well....no they don't of course. My point was that if someone were to die at home, who's going to come collect the body?

You can be damn sure that all the trained and equipped healthcare workers will be in hospital trying to take care of the people still alive.

While you're probably right in saying it's not likely to happen in Ireland it's certainly not unthinkable.

why would somebody be dying at home in ireland from ebola?

Beano · 15-10-2014 11:09AM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

:rolleyes:

happy to see that reasoned debate is not a lost art.

RobertKK · 15-10-2014 11:11AM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?

People with HIV survive thanks to companies like Gilead Sciences who found a treatment that works for people infected with HIV.
Then there are drugs to stop pregnant mothers infecting their unborn child.

With Ebola there is currently no known treatment that has passed tests to be proven to work.
Though I would guess within weeks or months we will have either/both a vaccine and a treatment for Ebola.

nyarlothothep · 15-10-2014 11:12AM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?

Dude, ebola does not have a similar mode of transmission, unless you want to categorise it under the label fluid transmission which misses the finer details that are important! For example HIV is transmitted through sex or needles ie drug use in most cases. Ebola...well all you have to do is touch the surface of an object that may have the virus, (perhaps someone got sick etc didn't wash their hands properly) and you're already infected. In the case of HIV the transmission is almost specialised and there are treatments for it, whereas with Ebola we don't even know for sure whether Zmapp works, and there's not enough of it anyway.

wexie · 15-10-2014 11:14AM

Beano wrote: »

why would somebody be dying at home in ireland from ebola?

Why not? People are found dead in their homes most weeks.

If there were to be a major outbreak here then the hospitals, ambulance service etc. etc. would all be overloaded pretty quickly.

There probably would only be a few hospitals properly equipped to take the patients to start with.

ectoraige · 15-10-2014 11:15AM

madcabbage wrote: »

Coughing is though. I'd imagine sweat and diarrhoea are the problematic symptoms. Public toilets would be a big no no if that's the case.

Just with regard to sweat, it's not clear how much of a problem sweat is actually. Whole live samples of the Ebola virus haven't been isolated in sweat to date, that's not to say it's not a possible vector, but it doesn't appear that sweat or saliva would have anywhere near the viral loading of blood, urine, or faeces.

I suspect the risk of transmission through the sweat of an asymptomatic carrier isn't much higher than the risk to your health caused by the anxiety of worrying about it.

Beano · 15-10-2014 11:16AM

wexie wrote: »

Why not? People are found dead in their homes most weeks.

If there were to be a major outbreak here then the hospitals, ambulance service etc. etc. would all be overloaded pretty quickly.

There probably would only be a few hospitals properly equipped to take the patients to start with.

so you have already assumed that there is a major outbreak then? The point i am making is that we would never get to that stage.

Maximus Alexander · 15-10-2014 11:18AM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

There's one or two like you on here every couple days. Just read some the thread and some articles.

Only one or two people a week who aren't alarmist doomsayers? God help us.

Ebola virus outbreak

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