Ebola virus outbreak

Putinovsky · 13-10-2014 12:01PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

Common view. It's quite simple really.

In Ireland, someone with ebola is likely to be given every chance of survival via intensive intravenous rehydration with sugars and salts.

In West Africa the supplies of above are poor, the number of healthcare workers to administer fluids is shockingly low and the fear/panic there is likely to result in ebola patients being abandoned altogether.

A healthy person here has a 50/50 chance or better. In Liberia right now, I would estimate 80/20 or worse.

50/50 chance of survival, what great odds. Nothing to worry about people.

littlemac1980 · 13-10-2014 12:02PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

Common view. It's quite simple really.

In Ireland, someone with ebola is likely to be given every chance of survival via intensive intravenous rehydration with sugars and salts.

In West Africa the supplies of above are poor, the number of healthcare workers to administer fluids is shockingly low and the fear/panic there is likely to result in ebola patients being abandoned altogether.

A healthy person here has a 50/50 chance or better. In Liberia right now, I would estimate 80/20 or worse.

To be fair - what's obvious is that that is actually your opinion - not a "common" view. But fair enough - it's your opinion and one you are entitled to.

In relation to the mortality rate itself there's as yet no objective basis for concluding the mortality rate will be any better or worse (which is also a possibility) in Western Countries. Any such conclusion must in the absence of actual data (thankfully) be based upon speculation.

nyarlothothep · 13-10-2014 12:04PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Everyone should be skeptical, especially about emotive topics like this, but skeptical thinking involves critically assessing the evidence and seeking out the best quality information before forming your opinion.

The experts in this situation are the WHO and the CDC and they are stating that we need to take this threat seriously and we should really be sending more resources to assist Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone to contain the epidemic before it gets completely out of control

It is completely out of control. 1700 beds to ready by December-ish and by that time around 28,000 people will be infected in Liberia. It's lost, pending a major, concerted international effort and some element of luck. I don't see that happening.

JapaneseLove · 13-10-2014 12:06PM

Im not trying to be smart or anything but to stop the spread of ebola then infected people will have to start being triaged. There is no cure for this disease and it is a horrible death. Bring out the infected, line them up, shoot them and burn the bodies. This is the only solution.

Now i know this sounds awful and fairly severe, but desperate times...

Wouldnt suprise me if it starts soon enough in africa.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 12:10PM

Peist2007 wrote: »

Great. You got some links to that? I was under the assumption that the mortality rate would remain fairly constant with this disease, there being only management of it and no tested cure. I wouldnt have too much faith in our hospitals given that MRSA is still rife, but thats the common view so happy days. Link?

I have no link and I am not going to look for one.
I want to rely on common sense for once.

Have you a "link" suggesting the quantity of relevant medical supplies and healthcare workers is higher than requirements in West Africa? Last I heard there were 60 doctors for 4,000,000 people in Liberia.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 12:12PM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

To be fair - what's obvious is that that is actually your opinion - not a "common" view. But fair enough - it's your opinion and one you are entitled to.

In relation to the mortality rate itself there's as yet no objective basis for concluding the mortality rate will be any better or worse (which is also a possibility) in Western Countries. Any such conclusion must in the absence of actual data (thankfully) be based upon speculation.

It's not an opinion!

Line in bold is BS. Look at the facts and make some deductions.

littlemac1980 · 13-10-2014 12:15PM

nyarlothothep wrote: »

It is completely out of control. 1700 beds to ready by December-ish and by that time around 28,000 people will be infected in Liberia. It's lost, pending a major, concerted international effort and some element of luck. I don't see that happening.

Even at this stage, the impact of a coordinated international effort may be "too little, too late".

As we've already seen - doctors and nurses are not immune to this and are in fact most at risk even with stringent containment procedures and protocols.

There are now almost 8500 confirmed cases - plus all those who are incubating at present.

Putting a huge number of aid workers, soldiers and health staff into a situation of this magnitude creates additional risks.

The appropriate response to this crisis was required in May - when there were only less than 400 confirmed cases. At this stage, who can say for sure, but things appear to be quite bleak in terms of properly containing this and more critically preventing the virus spreading to a densely populated large urban area.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 12:18PM

You people...

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

The average EVD case fatality rate is around 50%. Case fatality rates have varied from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks.

Supportive care-rehydration with oral or intravenous fluids- and treatment of specific symptoms, improves survival.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 12:24PM

I might be wrong but I think the mortality rate in the USA is only 20%.
Apart from the guy who arrived from Sierra Leone, I believe 4 people with the ebola virus have survived.

http://news.emory.edu/stories/2014/07/euh_ebola_patient/campus.html

Peist2007 · 13-10-2014 12:25PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

I have no link and I am not going to look for one.
I want to rely on common sense for once.

Have you a "link" suggesting the quantity of relevant medical supplies and healthcare workers is higher than requirements in West Africa? Last I heard there were 60 doctors for 4,000,000 people in Liberia.

So you have given your opinion and portrayed it as the common view and have nothing to back it up. I am making no claims that ireland will have a mortality rate with Ebola of less than 50%. You are. Given the condescension you display in most of your posts, you'd at least think you have something to back yourself up with. Oh well :rolleyes:

Peist2007 · 13-10-2014 12:27PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

You people...

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

What? People are asking questions and rightly so. Your smugness knows no bounds it seems

Putinovsky · 13-10-2014 12:27PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

I might be wrong but I think the mortality rate in the USA is only 20%.
Apart from the guy who arrived from Sierra Leone, I believe 4 people with the ebola virus have survived.

LOL

I can't believe you actually think thats even remotely a viable sample size. I genuinely chuckled at that post. The irony in you calling peole stupid after posting that gem

Akrasia · 13-10-2014 12:29PM

JapaneseLove wrote: »

Im not trying to be smart or anything but to stop the spread of ebola then infected people will have to start being triaged. There is no cure for this disease and it is a horrible death. Bring out the infected, line them up, shoot them and burn the bodies. This is the only solution.

Now i know this sounds awful and fairly severe, but desperate times...

Wouldnt suprise me if it starts soon enough in africa.

What an absolutely ridiculously terrible suggestion

If people are afraid to seek treatment for ebola, they will be far more likely to infect other people. The last thing you want is a load of people from affected areas going on the run from the authorities.

Rucking_Fetard · 13-10-2014 12:31PM

Ebola Vaccine Would Likely Have Been Found By Now If Not For Budget Cuts: NIH Director

wildefalcon · 13-10-2014 12:33PM

JapaneseLove wrote: »

Im not trying to be smart or anything but to stop the spread of ebola then infected people will have to start being triaged. There is no cure for this disease and it is a horrible death. Bring out the infected, line them up, shoot them and burn the bodies. This is the only solution.

Now i know this sounds awful and fairly severe, but desperate times...

Wouldnt suprise me if it starts soon enough in africa.

Taken this to it's extreme it would make sense to Nuke Africa.

Ridiculous! Imagine what would happen to the price of chocolate if you did that!

Madness.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 12:42PM

Putinovsky wrote: »

LOL

I can't believe you actually think thats even remotely a viable sample size. I genuinely chuckled at that post. The irony in you calling peole stupid after posting that gem

I never said it was a viable sample size. Who did I call stupid?

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 12:43PM

Peist2007 wrote: »

So you have given your opinion and portrayed it as the common view and have nothing to back it up. I am making no claims that ireland will have a mortality rate with Ebola of less than 50%. You are. Given the condescension you display in most of your posts, you'd at least think you have something to back yourself up with. Oh well :rolleyes:

You've heard of Google? Does every post have to have a link?
If you only want to hear the doom merchants, put me on ignore.

littlemac1980 · 13-10-2014 12:47PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

It's not an opinion!

Line in bold is BS. Look at the facts and make some deductions.

Spring Onion wrote: »

Common view. It's quite simple really.

In Ireland, someone with ebola is likely to be given every chance of survival via intensive intravenous rehydration with sugars and salts.

In West Africa the supplies of above are poor, the number of healthcare workers to administer fluids is shockingly low and the fear/panic there is likely to result in ebola patients being abandoned altogether.

A healthy person here has a 50/50 chance or better. In Liberia right now, I would estimate 80/20 or worse.

Spring Onion wrote: »

You people...

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

Oh Scallion! You offer and opinion, and for some reason elevate it to a "Common" view. Then when you're told it's an opinion (but it's OK to have an opinion) and that there is no objective basis for concluding the mortality rate is going to be better or worse in the First-World you link to a fact sheet which states that past outbreaks in Africa have had mortality rates of between 25% - 90%. Oh my....hahahahah!! :rolleyes:

The Art of Rhetoric truly is wasted on vegetables! :pac:

If you just stick to broad generalisations and straight forward opinions at least some of the sporadic viewers of this post might get the impression you have a clue what you're talking about.

Peist2007 · 13-10-2014 12:51PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

You've heard of Google? Does every post have to have a link?
If you only want to hear the doom merchants, put me on ignore.

No you have made a couple of statements as if they were fact and i decided to ask to see if you had anything backing your claims up. You dont. I have read extensively on this and thought maybe there had been a welcome development over the weekend. There wasnt, you tried to subtly misinform to suit your own argument. I think that is well out of order on a thread like this to be honest.

Further, you ask also who you called stupid. Most of your posts carry a smug implication that you are completely correct and those you are talking to are stupid. You uised the phrase "doom clowns" on this thread a few days ago which i thought was unfair as it was addressed to the thread in general. People are asking questions. I dont see why you think you are any more of an authority than anyone else on this.

Red Pepper · 13-10-2014 12:52PM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Oh Scallion! You offer and opinion, and for some reason elevate it to a "Common" view. Then when you're told it's an opinion (but it's OK to have an opinion) and that there is no objective basis for concluding the mortality rate is going to be better or worse in the First-World you link to a fact sheet which states that past outbreaks in Africa have had mortality rates of between 25% - 90%. Oh my....hahahahah!! :rolleyes:

The Art of Rhetoric truly is wasted on vegetables! :pac:

If you just stick to broad generalisations and straight forward opinions at least some of the sporadic viewers of this post might get the impression you have a clue what you're talking about.

What are you on about? Common view, Opinion, Fact, Prediction whatever....I still maintain the mortality rate in Western Europe will be much lower than West African for OBVIOUS REASONS that I have already suggested e.g. Medical supplies, more healthcare workers, less irrational fear etc etc.
My prediction is 50% (Western Europe) and 85% (Africa). Lets see what happens. Next.

FullblownRose · 13-10-2014 12:53PM

Red peppers and spring onions..all we need is eggs and we can have an omlette

JapaneseLove · 13-10-2014 12:56PM

Akrasia wrote: »

What an absolutely ridiculously terrible suggestion

If people are afraid to seek treatment for ebola, they will be far more likely to infect other people. The last thing you want is a load of people from affected areas going on the run from the authorities.

There is no treatment for ebola. Thats like saying "oh u had ur legs blown off. well i hav a cream for that".

JapaneseLove · 13-10-2014 12:57PM

wildefalcon wrote: »

Taken this to it's extreme it would make sense to Nuke Africa.

Ridiculous! Imagine what would happen to the price of chocolate if you did that!

Madness.

LOL!! Yea. Sure we will just buy coca beans from south america.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 12:57PM

Peist2007 wrote: »

You uised the phrase "doom clowns" on this thread a few days ago which i thought was unfair as it was addressed to the thread in general.

Oops wrong account.

No I didn't.

ProfessorPlum · 13-10-2014 12:59PM

FFS lads, he said the mortality rate in the west would be less than 50% and gave the reasons why. And then was asked to back it up with a link? To what - the other numerous outbreaks of Ebola in the west?? Then when he surmises the known outbreaks in the west with their outcomes (admittedly statistically insignificant, but the only information available on outcomes in the west) he is ridiculed? What do you people want? The stats are just not there. Go google intensive care outcomes for other viral diseases versus no care at all and see what pops up in your browser.

Edit: And to add to that, why do you think Western countries are so eager to repatriate their sick citizens if the outcome at home is no better????

littlemac1980 · 13-10-2014 01:00PM

Red Pepper wrote: »

What are you on about? Common view, Opinion, Fact, Prediction whatever....I still maintain the mortality rate in Western Europe will be much lower than West African for OBVIOUS REASONS that I have already suggested e.g. Medical supplies, more healthcare workers, less irrational fear etc etc.
My prediction is 50% (Western Europe) and 85% (Africa). Lets see what happens. Next.

Ah, you are aware that the current mortality rate in Africa is just under 50%, right?

whats newxt · 13-10-2014 01:00PM

muhahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaa i secretly want the world to burn

Hande hoche! · 13-10-2014 01:01PM

wildefalcon wrote: »

Taken this to it's extreme it would make sense to Nuke Africa.

Ridiculous! Imagine what would happen to the price of chocolate if you did that!

Madness.

Operation clean sweep sequel?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO2-YxWkRxk

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 01:01PM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

FFS lads, he said the mortality rate in the west would be less than 50% and gave the reasons why. And then was asked to back it up with a link? To what - the other numerous outbreaks of Ebola in the west?? Then when he surmises the known outbreaks in the west with their outcomes (admittedly statistically insignificant, but the only information available on outcomes in the west) he is ridiculed? What do you people want? The stats are just not there. Go google intensive care outcomes for other viral diseases versus no care at all and see what pops up in your browser.

Thank you Prof Plum.

They are out to lynch me for being positive.

Peist2007 · 13-10-2014 01:02PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

Oops wrong account.

No I didn't.

Spring Onion wrote: »

I am looking forward to reading some of these posts in say January. I bet some of the hype clowns will have closed their accounts!

Hype clowns rather than doom clowns. Same thing. Although i expect you to tell me that both are completely different in your own special way

Ebola virus outbreak

Comments