Ebola virus outbreak

handlemaster · 13-10-2014 10:36AM

What have the health boards shown that they can contain this if it arises. Eg man/woman gets off plane and actually says to someone. .. i have a fever etc etc. Whats the plan ? Is everyone trained on what to do. Is the equipment in the air port? What of the other passengers.... or is it sure we will be grand ! As seen from the US a slight F..Up and were in it big time.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 10:56AM

ThinkAboutIt wrote: »

Whats the real chances of it coming to Ireland?

Slim but if it does arrive (remember Spain imported it), I suspect only a small number of people will be affected and the mortality rate to be < 50%. If there over 5 cases by 2015, I would be very surprised.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 10:57AM

smash wrote: »

It would be great if it was another bird flu/swine flu panic but it's not. Lets face it, it's by far the biggest threat to humanity.

The highs and lows of this thread are classic!
I suspects lots of WUMs.

run_Forrest_run · 13-10-2014 11:00AM

we give Africa Geldof and they give us Ebola, he may be an annoying clown but it still doesn't seem a fair deal.

Streetwalker · 13-10-2014 11:00AM

wildefalcon wrote: »

Moderate, I'd say, in the short term. Not much traffic between there and here.

If it gets a hold in a major western city, then that changes.

Doesn't have to be a major western city. Lagos or Dehli for example and we are all in deep dog s h i t.

MadYaker · 13-10-2014 11:01AM

smash wrote: »

It would be great if it was another bird flu/swine flu panic but it's not. Lets face it, it's by far the biggest threat to humanity.

Christ.....

Putinovsky · 13-10-2014 11:04AM

MadYaker wrote: »

Christ.....

Could you tell me a bigger threat at the moment?

ISIS? lol

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 11:08AM

Putinovsky wrote: »

Could you tell me a bigger threat at the moment?

Stupid humans.

smash · 13-10-2014 11:11AM

Spring Onion wrote: »

The highs and lows of this thread are classic!
I suspects lots of WUMs.

MadYaker wrote: »

Christ.....

It's true. If it goes airborne then we're pretty fcuked.

Peist2007 · 13-10-2014 11:11AM

Spring Onion wrote: »

Slim but if it does arrive (remember Spain imported it), I suspect only a small number of people will be affected and the mortality rate to be < 50%. If there over 5 cases by 2015, I would be very surprised.

Why would the mortality rate of the disease decrease as it crosses the Irish border?

MadYaker · 13-10-2014 11:13AM

Putinovsky wrote: »

Could you tell me a bigger threat at the moment?

ISIS? lol

A bigger threat to your immediate safety? Do you drive a car, because that's a lot more likely to kill you than ebola is.

A bigger threat to humanity? Climate Change, loss of biodiversity, diminishing availability of fresh water causing wars, asteroid impact. All these are more of a threat to humanity than ebola.

The reality is that humans are more of a threat to humans than anything else and when humanity eventually ends it will most likely be our own doing. Not ebola.

Akrasia · 13-10-2014 11:14AM

smash wrote: »

It's true. If it goes airborne then we're pretty fcuked.

And if it turns into a computer virus it could infect the entire internet in a matter of hours!!

smash · 13-10-2014 11:14AM

Peist2007 wrote: »

Why would the mortality rate of the disease decrease as it crosses the Irish border?

Iodine tablets! :rolleyes:

MadYaker wrote: »

A bigger threat to humanity? Climate Change, loss of biodiversity, diminishing availability of fresh water causing wars, asteroid impact. All these are more of a threat to humanity than ebola.

You're talking about events which would take decades. Ebola would take weeks.

Akrasia wrote: »

And if it turns into a computer virus it could infect the entire internet in a matter of hours!!

Never go full retard!

jamesbere · 13-10-2014 11:15AM

Akrasia wrote: »

And if it turns into a computer virus it could infect the entire internet in a matter of hours!!

hmmmmmmmmmm, so this is how skynet starts.

MadYaker · 13-10-2014 11:24AM

smash wrote: »

You're talking about events which would take decades. Ebola would take weeks.

If it could spread rapidly in first world countries, which it can't. Even Nigeria managed to contain it.

FortuneChip · 13-10-2014 11:26AM

jamesbere wrote: »

hmmmmmmmmmm, so this is how skynet starts.

Skynet already started, it just hasn't happened yet.

littlemac1980 · 13-10-2014 11:32AM

Thomas Duncan began being symptomatic on 24.09.2014 and died on 08.10.2014.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/timeline-case-ebola-diagnosed-us-26048786

Therefore allowing for the max incubation period of 21 days and allowing 2-3 days to permit detection among a newly infected person, the approximate date we can be close to 100% sure that there will be no other US infections which are directly connected to Mr. Duncan will be around about 1st or 2nd of November. (I'm assuming that his body was properly contained as of 09.10.2014).

It's going to be a long three weeks for the medical staff at the hospital that treated him, and an important 3 weeks for those around the world nervously awaiting updates.

Colibri · 13-10-2014 11:34AM

smash wrote: »

It's true. If it goes airborne then we're pretty fcuked.

"Most mutations are bad for viruses, very rarely does it benefit the virus. While Ebola is a negative strand RNA virus and therefore likely to make mistakes (have mutations). The chance that the mutation for this Ebola strain to become airborne is very small."

- Aileen Marty on an IAMA on reddit a week ago (she's a doctor & infectious diseases specialist who treated Ebola patients with the WHO and CDC in West Africa).

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 11:38AM

Peist2007 wrote: »

Why would the mortality rate of the disease decrease as it crosses the Irish border?

I am comparing mortality rate of West Africa v Western Europe. West Africa will always have a higher mortality rate for various reasons.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 11:38AM

Colibri wrote: »

"Most mutations are bad for viruses, very rarely does it benefit the virus. While Ebola is a negative strand RNA virus and therefore likely to make mistakes (have mutations). The chance that the mutation for this Ebola strain to become airborne is very small."

- Aileen Marty on an IAMA on reddit a week ago (she's a doctor & infectious diseases specialist who treated Ebola patients with the WHO and CDC in West Africa).

It's not very small, its unprecedented for any virus and thus impossible.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 11:40AM

smash wrote: »

Ebola would take weeks.

Weeks to wipe out humanity?

It was first discovered in 1976.

smash · 13-10-2014 11:46AM

MadYaker wrote: »

If it could spread rapidly in first world countries, which it can't. Even Nigeria managed to contain it.

Spring Onion wrote: »

Weeks to wipe out humanity?

It was first discovered in 1976.

Like I said, if it became airborne.

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 11:50AM

smash wrote: »

Like I said, if it became airborne.

It wont. See my previous posts on this. I cant be bothered repeating myself.
It has as much of a chance of turning into a bird - Possible maybe but unprecedented and highly unlikely.

littlemac1980 · 13-10-2014 11:52AM

Spring Onion wrote: »

It's not very small, its unprecedented for any virus and thus impossible.

I agree from what little knowledge I have that the Virus will not become airborne - that's the clear general consensus among the myriad of sources available.

In any event, worrying about whether or not the virus will or won't ever be airborne is of no use to anyone, when what we are dealing with here is a virus that is not airborne, but is nevertheless, deadly and spreading quickly.

No offence - I don't want to appear pedantic (though I'd say I will), but it's logically false to suggest that because something is unprecedented (which actually means undocumented, or unobserved) that it is impossible. Throughout human history many of our major advances were brought about through developing something, or some theory that made something which was unprecedented something possible.

marco_polo · 13-10-2014 11:53AM

Its only a matter of time before its Neutrinos start to mutate :eek:

GunnerBlue · 13-10-2014 11:53AM

Spring Onion wrote: »

It wont. See my previous posts on this. I cant be bothered repeating myself.
It has as much of a chance of turning into a bird - Possible maybe but unprecedented and highly unlikely.

Fact. Too many people here getting their information from the movies. It's not Outbreak fgs.

Peist2007 · 13-10-2014 11:53AM

Spring Onion wrote: »

I am comparing mortality rate of West Africa v Western Europe. West Africa will always have a higher mortality rate for various reasons.

Is that a common view held by experts or is it just your opinion?

Spring Onion · 13-10-2014 11:57AM

Peist2007 wrote: »

Is that a common view held by experts or is it just your opinion?

Common view. It's quite simple really.

In Ireland, someone with ebola is likely to be given every chance of survival via intensive intravenous rehydration with sugars and salts.

In West Africa the supplies of above are poor, the number of healthcare workers to administer fluids is shockingly low and the fear/panic there is likely to result in ebola patients being abandoned altogether.

A healthy person here has a 50/50 chance or better. In Liberia right now, I would estimate 80/20 or worse.

Peist2007 · 13-10-2014 12:00PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

Common view. It's quite simple really.

In Ireland, someone with ebola is likely to be given every chance of survival via intensive intravenous rehydration with sugars and salts.

In West Africa the supplies of above are poor, the number of healthcare workers to administer fluids is shockingly low and the fear/panic there is likely to result in ebola patients being abandoned altogether.

Great. You got some links to that? I was under the assumption that the mortality rate would remain fairly constant with this disease, there being only management of it and no tested cure. I wouldnt have too much faith in our hospitals given that MRSA is still rife, but thats the common view so happy days. Link?

Putinovsky · 13-10-2014 12:00PM

Spring Onion wrote: »

Stupid humans.

Yes, world leaders, healthcare professionals and heads of international monetary institutions are all stupid and the mighty Spring Onion is the true intellect.

First we heard that its very hard to get infected then that it won't spread from Sierra Leone after that it was that it won't travel to Europe and then we heard how developed countries with proper infrastructure will be able to contain it. Well all of that has been proven wrong.

Ebola virus outbreak

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