Ebola virus outbreak

jsd1004 · 09-10-2014 10:06PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

From just a few pages ago.

If it is that virulent we are all fecked anyway. I don't think border controls will stop it.

ProfessorPlum · 09-10-2014 10:06PM

My point is we can't hang about and wait to see how it goes out there, and then close the borders when it gets really bad. We need to get in there now, not just with cargo planes of aid, what they need most of all is people. Liberia had 51 doctors in the entire country before this. Most of them are dead now. There's nobody to treat the sick, to isolate them and their contacts. Isolation needs to be done in the towns and villages. Not at the national borders.

realweirdo · 09-10-2014 10:06PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

From just a few pages ago.

Restricting air travel. Stop taking things out of context!

jsd1004 · 09-10-2014 10:09PM

realweirdo wrote: »

Ah yes the old "throw shagging monkeys into the mix" when no-one mentioned shagging monkeys bit. Talk about putting words in people's mouths.

You clearly are the only person in the world who thinks ebola and hiv didn't come from bush meat by the way when there is virtually universal scientific agreement that both did.

I am am I.. Use google. It's pretty easy. Or else source medical journals..which is a bit harder.

the_monkey · 09-10-2014 10:10PM

Can everyone who thinks the world is about to end please read this :

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/09/ebola-highly-contagious-virus-myths-outbreak-epidemic

Now go back to worrying about those men in white vans driving around the country trying to abduct our kids ...

realweirdo · 09-10-2014 10:11PM

jsd1004 wrote: »

I am am I.. Use google. It's pretty easy. Or else source medical journals..which is a bit harder.

So where did ebola come from? I'd prefer to hear your theory as opposed to going off googling it, if that's ok, because I wouldn't "find" the article you agreed with.

WakeUp · 09-10-2014 10:12PM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

A bit of perspective needed lads...

Asymptomatic persons or patients with very early symptoms will have low viral loads, so unless you go into the loo after a bloke who febrile, pucking and oozing blood from orifices, the chances of catching it like that is negligible.
We're back to the toilet seat/HIV panicking

every single person on this thread to a man or woman calling for calm is right. all of them. because panicking or losing the head is about the worst thing anyone could do. that said, we still need to know what is going on I agree perspective is needed but this is ebola it isnt like other viruses and cant be compared to them. all we need is a handful of cases and we have problems. for example speaking hypothetically of course, a paramedic team answers a call and transfer a suspected ebola case to hospital. that first responder team is now out of action and placed in quarantine. and so are any other medical people who came in contact without protection. thats one case. then perhaps another case shows up. same chain of events. thats two cases. another possible case. same thing happens. that is three cases so on so forth. how many ambulance crews operate at any one time in lets say Dublin for example. not that many. which is why among other reasons is why I think we need to be extra careful we dont have the resources I would think to cope with any serious amount of cases. then these people who might need treating, we dont have enough IC units and probably equipment to treat more than a certain number of people. and all of that under strict isolation and quarantine. its why we need to be really careful without over reacting. thats what I think anyways. and why we need to know what is going on. actually what is going on.

EBOLA VICTIMS WITHOUT SYMPTOMS CAN STILL BE CONTAGIOUS
German doctors show CDC wrong about spread of disease

NEW YORK – A group of German medical doctors in a peer-reviewed medical journal article published by Oxford University Press have challenged a key assumption regarding the Ebola virus repeatedly asserted by Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

The researchers found that a patient showing no symptoms of the disease can still transmit a virus like Ebola by air if droplets containing the virus are transmitted to another person by a sneeze or cough.

Dr. Norman M. Balog, D.O., a board-certified family doctor practicing in Silver Spring, Maryland, brought the research of the German medical team to the attention of WND as evidence that the CDC’s Frieden could not prove his assertion air travel was safe as long as a person infected with Ebola were not showing symptoms. An infected person can go as long as 21 days in an incubation period before being infected.

“Dr. Freiden is either completely uninformed of this research,” Balog explained to WND in an exclusive telephone interview, “or he is deliberately lying because he does not want to panic the general public.”
http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/ebola-victims-without-symptoms-could-still-be-contagious/

BorneTobyWilde · 09-10-2014 10:12PM

If you calculate the time it takes to destroy a city and move on,

we're looking at the worldwide destruction of every major city

in the next 36 hours.

realweirdo · 09-10-2014 10:14PM

the_monkey wrote: »

Can everyone who thinks the world is about to end please read this :

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/09/ebola-highly-contagious-virus-myths-outbreak-epidemic

Now go back to worrying about those men in white vans driving around the country trying to abduct our kids ...

Each patient in the current Ebola outbreak is infecting on average two healthy people (this figure, known as the R0 value, can be reduced with appropriate precautions). The Sars outbreak of 2002-03 had an R0 of five, mumps 10 and measles a huge 18. Ebola could be much more infectious than it is.

This has already been shown to be a logical fallacy earlier in this thread. The R value is pretty much irrelevant and misleading. HIV has an R value of 4 and Ebola has an R value of 2. But that's 2 in a couple of days and each one of those can infect 2 more. So by the end of a month the R value or equivalent would be exponentially larger, probably around 30.

So in this case the guardian writer is himself spreading a myth.

The only thing worse than alarm and panic is not taking it seriously.

Spring Onion · 09-10-2014 10:16PM

Richard D James wrote: »

There was a guy on Sky news earlier from a Pharma company that are furiously working on a vaccine for this Ebola
The interviewer pointed out that Ebola has been in Africa since the 1970's
If black people are dying thats one thing, but once white people start dying its a different story

That point was made a few days ago and it's absolutely valid. Coverage = Hype and Big Pharma share prices are rising as fast as the hype especially when it arrived in Texas. Similar to swine flu, Big Pharma will rush a vaccine through testing and approval and make billions selling it to panicky governments. Watch out for the side effects though...

http://www.thejournal.ie/pandemrix-narcolepsy-link-study-1447040-May2014/

GSK will probably be the big player, I think they are the pharma that did the illegal vaccine testing in the mother and baby homes.
.

ProfessorPlum · 09-10-2014 10:20PM

realweirdo wrote: »

This has already been shown to be a logical fallacy earlier in this thread. The R value is pretty much irrelevant and misleading. HIV has an R value of 4 and Ebola has an R value of 2. But that's 2 in a couple of days and each one of those can infect 2 more. So by the end of a month the R value or equivalent would be exponentially larger, probably around 30.

So in this case the guardian writer is himself spreading a myth.

The only thing worse than alarm and panic is not taking it seriously.

No it hasn't, and it isn't.

jsd1004 · 09-10-2014 10:21PM

realweirdo wrote: »

So where did ebola come from? I'd prefer to hear your theory as opposed to going off googling it, if that's ok, because I wouldn't "find" the article you agreed with.

Where did it come from? No one knows. Where did HIV come from? No one knows. You can hypothesise as much as you want but it is like asking where flu originated from. Viruses have been with us for millions of years and continue to mutate and acquire new names as they progress.

realweirdo · 09-10-2014 10:23PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm not intentionally, I'm just having difficultly understanding the point you're trying to make. You said sealing off the most badly hit countries would have to be considered. Then get annoyed at people for calling you racist over it - fair enough, maybe you genuinely have no racist intent. Then you say there's no point restricting air travel. And somehow tie that into the racist thing, despite it being a separate issue. I don't think anyone would claim restricting air travel is remotely racist.

I don't really have time or inclination for word games with you. I'm glad you don't think I'm racist however and I'm also glad you have come around to the view ebola victims should be isolated.

ProfessorPlum · 09-10-2014 10:24PM

WakeUp wrote: »

EBOLA VICTIMS WITHOUT SYMPTOMS CAN STILL BE CONTAGIOUS
German doctors show CDC wrong about spread of disease

NEW YORK – A group of German medical doctors in a peer-reviewed medical journal article published by Oxford University Press have challenged a key assumption regarding the Ebola virus repeatedly asserted by Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

The researchers found that a patient showing no symptoms of the disease can still transmit a virus like Ebola by air if droplets containing the virus are transmitted to another person by a sneeze or cough.

Dr. Norman M. Balog, D.O., a board-certified family doctor practicing in Silver Spring, Maryland, brought the research of the German medical team to the attention of WND as evidence that the CDC’s Frieden could not prove his assertion air travel was safe as long as a person infected with Ebola were not showing symptoms. An infected person can go as long as 21 days in an incubation period before being infected.

“Dr. Freiden is either completely uninformed of this research,” Balog explained to WND in an exclusive telephone interview, “or he is deliberately lying because he does not want to panic the general public.”
http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/ebola-victims-without-symptoms-could-still-be-contagious/

Your link is to a crank conspiracy theory type website, and the link in that to the peer reviewed medical paper is to a blog.

However, one thing a medical student learns early on (as most of the exams are negative marking MCQ's) if there's a choice of an 'always' or 'never' answer in medicine, the right answer is probably not that one.

Spring Onion · 09-10-2014 10:24PM

miss no stars · 09-10-2014 10:26PM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

No it hasn't, and it isn't.

It's irrelevant when not taken in the context of the period for which the infected victim can pass on infection. It's useful when you put it in temporal context. That's the point I'm trying to make for the third time. Simply saying "oh but it's R number is 2 which is only half of that of HIV" is useless without considering the time over which those infections occur.

BorneTobyWilde · 09-10-2014 10:27PM

Obama has just releases a statement

Good morning.

In less than an hour,

aircraft from here will join others from around the world.

And you will be launching the largest aerial battle on Sierra Leone in the history of mankind.

Mankind. That word should have new meaning for all of us today.

We can't be consumed by our petty differences any more.

We will be united in our common interest. To wipe out Ebola.
We must act now to prevent further spread of the virus

Perhaps it's fate that today is the 9th Oct

And you will once again be fighting for our freedom.

Not from tyranny, oppression or persecution.

But from annihilation by a virus that turns the insides of its host into jelly.

We're fighting for our right to live.

To exist.

And should we win the day,

the 9th of Oct will no longer be known as just another day

but as the day when the world declared in one voice,

"We will not go quietly into the night!"

"We will not vanish without a fight!"

"We're going to live on!"

"We're going to survive!"

Today, we celebrate our Independence Day

realweirdo · 09-10-2014 10:27PM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

No it hasn't, and it isn't.

Yes it has. Miss no stars has explained it in more detail than I can as she has a better knowledge of the maths and science behind this than me.

I repeat the R value is pretty much irrelevant. A HIV patient on average will infect 4 people in their entire lives, which could be anything up to 40 years after infection. An ebola patient can infect 2 people. Ebola infection usually lasts 21 days in total.

The period of contagiousness is usually the last week. So an ebola patient can infect 2 people in a single week. If an ebola patient lived 40 years, in a highly contagious phase, you'd be talking

2x52x40 to get an equivalent R comparison to HIV.

You understand now? It's not that difficult!

blackwave · 09-10-2014 10:29PM

Interesting piece from the Washington Post with simulations of how Ebola compares to other diseases in terms of how quickly an infection spreads and number of deaths caused.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/health/how-ebola-spreads/

jsd1004 · 09-10-2014 10:30PM

realweirdo wrote: »

I don't really have time or inclination for word games with you. I'm glad you don't think I'm racist however and I'm also glad you have come around to the view ebola victims should be isolated.

realweirdo wrote: »

Yes it has. Miss no stars has explained it in more detail than I can as she has a better knowledge of the maths and science behind this than me.

I repeat the R value is pretty much irrelevant. A HIV patient on average will infect 4 people in their entire lives, which could be anything up to 40 years after infection. An ebola patient can infect 2 people. Ebola infection usually lasts 21 days in total.

The period of contagiousness is usually the last week. So an ebola patient can infect 2 people in a single week. If an ebola patient lived 40 years, in a highly contagious phase, you'd be talking

2x52x40 to get an equivalent R comparison to HIV.

You understand now? It's not that difficult!

By how would a HIV patient infect 4 people in their life?

freqeunt_guest · 09-10-2014 10:30PM

realweirdo wrote: »

It's cold, but logical. Here's my suggestion, all the bleeding heart liberals in the west suit up, travel out to west africa and volunteer to fight this epidemic. Then you will see what principles they actually have. It's one thing when someone else has to confront it, its another when they have to confront it.

saw a piece on the news this evening where a guy from dublin was getting ready to travel to liberia to help out

how irresponsible can people be , that guy should not be let back into the country for at least a year

ProfessorPlum · 09-10-2014 10:30PM

miss no stars wrote: »

It's irrelevant when not taken in the context of the period for which the infected victim can pass on infection. It's useful when you put it in temporal context. That's the point I'm trying to make for the third time. Simply saying "oh but it's R number is 2 which is only half of that of HIV" is useless without considering the time over which those infections occur.

I think I already explained it to you earlier. You claim ebola is highly contagious. It is not. The R number is useful. I compared Measles, a highly contagious disease with an R number of 18, to ebola with an R number of 2. Temporally, they would be similar.

ProfessorPlum · 09-10-2014 10:31PM

realweirdo wrote: »

Yes it has. Miss no stars has explained it in more detail than I can as she has a better knowledge of the maths and science behind this than me.

I repeat the R value is pretty much irrelevant. A HIV patient on average will infect 4 people in their entire lives, which could be anything up to 40 years after infection. An ebola patient can infect 2 people. Ebola infection usually lasts 21 days in total.

The period of contagiousness is usually the last week. So an ebola patient can infect 2 people in a single week. If an ebola patient lived 40 years, in a highly contagious phase, you'd be talking

2x52x40 to get an equivalent R comparison to HIV.

You understand now? It's not that difficult!

no. no no. See my previous post.

realweirdo · 09-10-2014 10:31PM

miss no stars wrote: »

It's irrelevant when not taken in the context of the period for which the infected victim can pass on infection. It's useful when you put it in temporal context. That's the point I'm trying to make for the third time. Simply saying "oh but it's R number is 2 which is only half of that of HIV" is useless without considering the time over which those infections occur.

Totally agree. If an ebola victim lived as long as the average HIV victim, the R value for the average ebola victim would be of the order of several thousand. They'd infect 2 people a week, 52 weeks a year for several decades.

freqeunt_guest · 09-10-2014 10:33PM

dalyboy wrote: »

According to the W.H.O its not an airbourne virus and is only spread "through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids". In other its all but impossible to contract this virus in normal every day activities. I for one will sleep well while I laugh at the idiots on tv wearing their masks and protective suits. The only way this virus will make it to Ireland is if it is purposely planted here.

nonesense , currently , their is no screening programme at dublin airport or dublin port , aid workers and medical staff who are out there helping might well carry it back with them , travel to those badly effected countries ( both in and out ) need to be banned without delay

realweirdo · 09-10-2014 10:35PM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

I think I already explained it to you earlier. You claim ebola is highly contagious. It is not. The R number is useful. I compared Measles, a highly contagious disease with an R number of 18, to ebola with an R number of 2. Temporally, they would be similar.

And as Miss No Stars explained to you, it's irrelevant without the time frame.

miss no stars · 09-10-2014 10:35PM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

I think I already explained it to you earlier. You claim ebola is highly contagious. It is not. The R number is useful. I compared Measles, a highly contagious disease with an R number of 18, to ebola with an R number of 2. Temporally, they would be similar.

But you haven't considered the precautions against transmission. A spanish nurse allegedly provided with and correctly using BSL2 protective equipment contracted Ebola in a hospital environment.

I'm not saying the R number isn't useful, I'm saying that comparing apples with oranges isn't useful. Comparing the R number for Ebola (dead and gone in about 3-4 weeks) with the R number for HIV (alive after decades with modern medicine and no need for BSL4 protective equipment) is a false comparison.

ProfessorPlum · 09-10-2014 10:35PM

realweirdo wrote: »

Totally agree. If an ebola victim lived as long as the average HIV victim, the R value for the average ebola victim would be of the order of several thousand. They'd infect 2 people a week, 52 weeks a year for several decades.

Oh Christ. They don't. The sick ones don't live. The survivors survive, and can infect others for upto maybe 90 days. We think. After that they don't continue to infect others. There are no further cases as a consequence of that patient. So the R number is 2. It just is.

realweirdo · 09-10-2014 10:37PM

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Oh Christ. They don't. The sick ones don't live. The survivors survive, and can infect others for upto maybe 90 days. We think. After that they don't continue to infect others. There are no further cases as a consequence of that patient. So the R number is 2. It just is.

2 in a week.

So let's imagine someone gets infected with HIV today. How many people do you think they will have infected by this time next week? 4?

Spring Onion · 09-10-2014 10:37PM

realweirdo wrote: »

I don't really have time or inclination for word games with you. I'm glad you don't think I'm racist however and I'm also glad you have come around to the view ebola victims should be isolated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5j2F4VcBmeo

1:10

Ebola virus outbreak

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