Ebola virus outbreak

And will soe people be less inclined to wash their hands because of the water charges :O

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Here's a useful map applet that allows you to scroll through the timeline of the reported cases Ebola Outbreak.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-31/ebola-timeline-deadliest-outbreak/5639060

You'll see that the shocking rate at which the number of infected is growing.

From:

17.04.2014 - 18.05.2014 - the number of cases grew from 249 to 305.

18.05.2014 - 16.06.2014 - 305 to 666

16.06.2014 - 12.07.2014 - 666 to 967

12.07.2014. - 11.08.2014 - 967 to 1977

11.08.2014 - 07.09.2014 - 1977 to 4392

07.09.2014 - 01.10.2014 - 4392 to 7492.

Analysing the above figures a little more shows us the corresponding increase in the daily rate of infection over those time periods.

Of course it must be borne in mind - that the above figures represent the characteristics of contagion of the disease at an early stage and may not be absolutely accurate in terms of demonstrating the "exponent" of increase.

Also it must be considered a likely factor that the number of new cases may have artificially jumped/or stalled in certain periods due to the fact that "new cases" really means "new cases detected" and would be influenced by greater or lesser efforts to detect.

The accuracy of the figures is obviously limited by both the limited range of data available and the stage at which the contagion is at (very early stage), it would obviously be much better to have a number of years data of this strain and the numbers of people affected to give more accurate figures, nevertheless the rate of growth is a cause for concern should a serious increase in efforts to contain this virus and stall or reverse the spread not be implemented ASAP.

17.04.2014 - 18.05.2014 - 31 days - 56 new cases - 1.8 new cases per day.

18.05.2014 - 16.06.2014 - 29 days - 361 new cases - 12.45 new cases per day.

16.06.2014 - 12.07.2014 - 26 days - 301 new cases - 11.58 new cases per day.

12.07.2014. - 11.08.2014 - 30 days - 1010 new cases - 33.67 new cases per day.

11.08.2014 - 07.09.2014 - 27 days - 2415 new cases - 89.44 new cases per day.

07.09.2014 - 01.10.2014 - 24 days - 3100 new cases - 129.17 new cases per day.

realweirdo wrote: »

This reason for the rapid expansion in new numbers would be largely down to the fact the countries in question can deal with small numbers but eventually they reach a tipping point where they can't isolate people or track their contacts. That tipping point has been reached and the numbers will continue to grow exponentially without a serious international effort. So far there has been no serious international effort.

People still think this outbreak is the same as previous ones, if a bit more serious, but eventually the Africans will get it under control largely by themselves. They won't. This looks like the big one.

Yes - that's likely another factor. There would be many, and each would affect the accuracy of projecting what might happen in the future, and in different circumstances with different factors and weights.

Nevertheless you have to work with what's available and unfortunately in 12-18 months time the projections may be much more accurate, but by then, if nothing serious is done now, the projections might be purely academic in terms of assistance.

At what stage, if any, should we panic like?

fedor.2. wrote: »

At what stage, if any, should we panic like?

I'd be inclined to say as soon as there is a confirmed case in Ireland take precautions not to expose yourself unnecessarily to any risk of infection.

If there are more than one case its up to yourself - but I for one will probably take my chances with a few books and some quality home time until I see what happens.

Unfortunately, I'm not a pessimistic person, but I tend to agree with most posters here that suggest that Ireland's health system is totally incapable of dealing with this Virus.

The cynic in me would even go so far as to suggest that a case of Ebola here would be exactly what the Unions have been waiting for and you'd see strikes of Nurses and Junior doctors all over the place. Kind of like the Train Strike for All-Ireland weekend - a good opportunity to put a gun to the governments head and get a pay rise.

Sclosages wrote: »

Are all patients shagging/kissing/pissing/bleeding on each other? How have so so many people, medical professionals with space suits on them contracting it?
That is what worries me!

The suits in the Spanish case were only designed for grade 2 disease protection when they needed a higher grade of protective suit for dealing with Ebola.

Sclosages wrote: »

Are all patients shagging/kissing/pissing/bleeding on each other? How have so so many people, medical professionals with space suits on them contracting it?
That is what worries me!

Working in protective gear is not very nice, it's hot, uncomfortable, itchy and smelly.

If you have an itch on your nose, what do you do? Go into decon and remove the suit for disposal, scratch and get a new suit on? Fine, if there are unlimited resources, but if there are no new suits? Some people will just lift the mask and scratch their nose.

Ever had a nose Itch? See how long you could go without scratching it!

Sclosages wrote: »

I expect Ireland will have grade 1 then lol.

Eh, yes, probably :O Who knows?

littlemac1980 wrote: »

I'd be inclined to say as soon as there is a confirmed case in Ireland take precautions not to expose yourself unnecessarily to any risk of infection.

If there are more than one case its up to yourself - but I for one will probably take my chances with a few books and some quality home time until I see what happens.

Unfortunately, I'm not a pessimistic person, but I tend to agree with most posters here that suggest that Ireland's health system is totally incapable of dealing with this Virus.

The cynic in me would even go so far as to suggest that a case of Ebola here would be exactly what the Unions have been waiting for and you'd see strikes of Nurses and Junior doctors all over the place. Kind of like the Train Strike for All-Ireland weekend - a good opportunity to put a gun to the governments head and get a pay rise.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying littlemac, but above is grossly unfair. Nurses and doctors here have never refused to treat emergent patients during industrial disputes, and many, especially doctors, work far in excess of their contracted hours. They will be the ones most exposed on the front lines, along with paramedics and other workers in the sector, and they deserve our respect and support.

Australia have a fair system i think. Anyone who has been anywhere near an ebola patient/victim must isolate themselves at home alone for 21 days on returning home and they must constantly check their temperature.
Reduces the risk of spreading.

Spring Onion wrote: »

Yes of course - let's have a retrospective in 2015 and see who was over-hyping the situation. To be honest I find this thread absolutely fascinating. There is a thesis here for sure!
Some lad just suggested that the nurses and doctors will strike for more money to deal with ebola. You cant make this stuff up, well actually most of you can.

I find the discussion fascinating too. Possibly not from the same angle as you, but I think those who are quickest to repudiate the suggestion any disease might spread in unforseen ways, and insist that it isn't sensible to discuss these ideas, are really a bit frightened and overcompensating by trying to appear more detatched than they really feel. I have seen people all but suggest a media moratorium on coverage on Ebola.

The other extreme is the kind of people, like some friends I have on my Facebook page, who almost seem to be desperately hoping it will escalate much further.