The Iceland Volcano Thread

5.4 at around 8.00am
http://baering.github.io/

I've also noticed that the moon has a slightly coppery tinge over the last week, another possible atmospheric effect?

Latest thoughts from Jon Frimann.

The caldera in Bárðarbunga volcano is dropping and it is dropping fast. According to latest news from Rúv the caldera is dropping up to 90 cm/day. That is a huge drop for a mountain. There is also clue that central part of the caldera floor is now so soft that it no longer breaks and creates earthquakes, it is just buckling under the strain. This increases the risk of eruption in the central caldera up to almost certainty levels (for me that is 96+% chance of happening). The latest news from Rúv tell that the thickness of the glacier in the central part of the glacier is up to 850 meters thick. Since last Saturday the caldera has dropped 2 – 3 meters, meaning that current drop is now around 18,5 meters.

IMO have used a helicopter to place a GPS station directly onto the glacier above the caldera today.

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Yeah I'd be surprised if there were any serious numbers killed or injured.
But I am intrigued to see what happens.

The nerd in me just wants to see something amazing

Jon, is highlighting one possible outcome to a caldera event. If something like, a fast collapse happens. They are many ways that event can play out, a small Phreatic eruption has the highest chance of happening, that would go boom.

If this does happen, it might not even get above the ice, The IMO just does not have enough data to say what will happen.


This picture at the bottom, outlines the drop across the volcano, BB.
The minus 16 to 18 meters covers a small fraction of the caldera, so that hints at nothing big again.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phreatic_eruption

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plinian_eruption

http://s17.postimg.org/ye3jfdy3z/bardarbunga_x.png
AMAZED BY THIS.
Been watching on the live cams most of the night, things are really heating up pun intended.

Looks like there was a large enough 5.5 quake in the volcanoe a few hours ago.

Wednesday
10.09.2014 05:28:29 64.672 -17.469 2.6 km 5.5 99.0 4.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga

Clearly there is an association between sigs in Bárðarbunga eruption of lava pocket. The immediate chain of events can be explained by dynamic run theory presented in the Krafla eruption: lava flow before Bárðarbunga, hallway arising under Dyngjujökli and comes in blowout lava. But what is the agenda? In the current climate of events may occur through a variety of means. These scenarios can be considered the most likely are:

Drooping of the first stops before it becomes very much and lava erupted in the hole goes out (Scenario A).





2 drooping continues and even gets a few hundred meters as well as the eruption continues blowout lava and / or under Dyngjujökli. Be expected that the eruption is prolonged and could size measured in cubic kilometers before this is over. If Fissure is extended to the south or soda will open in a new place can be expected floods and ash fall. It can not be ruled out that a new crack to the southwest, open the glacier south of convexity with respect to the land beyond the glacier (Scenario .




3 deviate find their way up box broken and the eruption begins within liner. Such a large eruption could melt ice and cause significant glacier run. It could also happen that the water does not shut out if slip was well underway when the eruption would start. The water would then later in a massive glacier run. When privacy erupted through the ice would turn into explosive eruptions with associated pyroclastic fall (Scenario C).



The situation is confused and can not decide between these options at the moment.

http://jardvis.hi.is/hugleidingar_um_oskjusig_i_bardarbungu_og_mogulegar_svidsmyndir

Dean Paul Einarsson

Iceland's Bárðarbunga volcano could be about to erupt, say scientists after noticing that the surface of the glacier above the volcano's caldera (cauldron-like crater at top of volcano) has begun to sink by around 65 feet since last week.

Powerful tremors measuring magnitude 5.5 shook the region near the volcano on Wednesday at 05:28 GMT.

The eruption could be large depending on the amount of magma in the volcano's chamber, writes Vox.

A volcanic eruption below the glacier could produce a violent steam explosion throwing up clouds of ash into the atmosphere.

A cloud of ash from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in a different region of Iceland had closed much of Europe's air space for six days in 2010.

Lava continued to pour from fissures in the ground but there was no ash, reports Reuters.

Besides an ash explosion, another scenario, according to the Iceland meteorological organisation, is that the eruption could melt the ice and result in flooding of the river flowing north.

Even the ongoing lava eruption on reaching back to the glacier could lead to ash explosions and flooding.

Or, the caldera could stop sinking, seismic activity could cease and lava flows decline.

The caldera spreads over 80 square km and is covered by an ice cap that is 700 to 800 metres thick.

The caldera has been sinking since last week as magma channelled through underground passages moves away from the volcano, leaving empty space beneath.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/icelands-b%C3%A1r%C3%B0arbunga-volcano-erupt-caldera-sinks-fast-075122834.html

Has it kicked off? Looks like an ash cloud on right of webcam, and camera shaking a lot...

webcam should come with a disclaimer that wind can cause the camera to shake! very deceiving!