Hurling Rankings

A very traditional feel to the table after this weekend, the big three occupying the top 3 positions.

Wexford take 100 points from Clare, edging Wexford closer to the top 8. Dublin's heavy defeat enables Clare to remain 4th.
Derry defeated Down in their replayed Ulster semi final which moves them up two to 17th. However no weighting applies to this championship as it has no link to a national championship. (McCarthy, Ring etc.)

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|8726
3rd |(5)|+2|TIPPERARY|8691
4th |(4)|=|CLARE|8537
5th |(3)|-2|DUBLIN|8534
6th |(6)|=|GALWAY|8400
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|8308
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8223
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7846
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580
11th |(11)|=|LAOIS|7246
12th |(12)|=|ANTRIM|7108
13th |(13)|=|KERRY|6601
14th |(14)|=|CARLOW|6518
15th |(15)|=|WESTMEATH|6421
16th |(16)|=|KILDARE|6283
17th |(18)|+1|DERRY|6063
18th |(19)|+1|LONDON|5936
19th |(17)|-2|DOWN|5903
20th |(20)|=|MEATH|5722
21st |(21)|=|WICKLOW|5679
22nd |(22)|=|MAYO|5384
23rd |(23)|=|ARMAGH|4834
24th |(24)|=|DONEGAL|4782
25th |(25)|=|FINGAL|4673
26th |(26)|=|TYRONE|4667
27th |(27)|=|ROSCOMMON|4426
28th |(28)|=|LOUTH|3966
29th |(29)|=|FERMANAGH|3876
30th |(30)|=|MONAGHAN|3856
31st |(31)|=|LONGFORD|3731
32nd |(32)|=|WARWICKSHIRE|3409
33rd |(33)|=|SLIGO|3101
34th |(34)|=|LEITRIM|2878




JULY 12th/13th PREVIEW

Four games this weekend.

TIPPERARY (3) -v- OFFALY (10)
Tipperary bounced back with a vengeance against Galway and they will surely be very happy with this draw. They have the potential to go all the way but they have not come close to fulfilling that potential since Liam Sheedy stepped down. They won in 2010 via the qualifier route so this game gives them a chance to build on the momentum gained from their second half performance last weekend. It gives me no pleasure to be dismissive of Offaly (far from it in fact) but keeping the scoreline respectable would represent a good day out for them.
TIPPERARY by 11

WEXFORD (9) -v- CLARE (4)
Last week I asked "could the draw have gone any worse for Wexford?" and this weekend I'd like to personally thank them for ramming that question firmly back down my throat! A great game served up by these two but both will be disappointed and will feel there is much room for improvement. The thing is, Clare have far more scope to improve, Wexford have the benefit of home advantage but to use that tired old cliché, one suspects that they have missed their chance. Clare to win, but only just.
CLARE by 4

CORK (2) -v- LIMERICK (7)
Since the drawn game with Waterford Cork have been very impressive, only for a 73rd minute equaliser last September they would currently be holding the McCarthy cup, in terms of personnel Cork are stronger than last year too. They say farewell to Páirc Uí Chaoimh together with a select few of their supporters, can Limerick spoil that party? The 41 year Tipp in Thurles hoodoo was finally ended last month, but from what I've seen of both teams this year I can only see Cork shading this one. The rankings go for a 7/8 point win, I personally believe it will be a lot closer than that.
CORK by 7

ANTRIM (12) -v- DERRY (17)
The Ulster hurling final also takes place next weekend, Antrim looking to win their 13th title in a row, Derry won this title back in 2000 and 2001 (some of us might recall Derry giving Offaly a big fright in the 2000 All-Ireland quarter final) but there is nothing to suggest Derry have any realistic chance of glory here. Antrim have dominated the Ulster championship in the last 12 years and have typically won the final by huge margins, they defeated Derry by 18 points in 2012 and defeated Down by 12 in the 2013 decider (which incidentally, was played in February 2014). I suspect this will be no different.
ANTRIM by 14

Cork make a modest gain at Limerick's expense, not enough to change their respective positions.

Clare's defeat sees them drop one place to 5th to the benefit of Dublin.

Wexford made two good points gains in the last two weekends and now have Limerick and Waterford in their sights, worth keeping an eye on them in the coming weeks, they have not been in the top 8 since June 2008, good opportunity for them to go as high as 7th over the next two weekends, or more importantly for them; a good opportunity to reach a first All-Ireland semi final since 2007.

Wins also for Tipperary and Antrim over Offaly and Derry respectively but the points gap was too large for either Tipp or Antrim to make points gains.

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|8764
3rd |(3)|=|TIPPERARY|8691
4th |(5)|+1|DUBLIN|8534
5th |(4)|-1|CLARE|8448
6th |(6)|=|GALWAY|8400
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|8270
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8223
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7935
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

So in what may come as a disappointment to some, Wexford's win over Waterford did not result in a positional swap, but it does signal that the big 8 has now become the big 9, as the gap is now completely closed, Wexford have hit their highest points total in 6 years. Wexford started 2014 in 10th and almost 7000 points off 8th, the gap is now down to 30.

A win for Wexford over Limerick next week would guarantee them a move from 9th to 7th. Preview of next weekends quarter finals to follow.

Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(2)|=|CORK|8764
3rd |(3)|=|TIPPERARY|8691
4th |(4)|=|DUBLIN|8534
5th |(5)|=|CLARE|8448
6th |(6)|=|GALWAY|8400
7th |(7)|=|LIMERICK|8270
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8094
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|8064
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Is that really supposed to read 7000? Or did you mean 700? Or was something lost in the multiplying*100 when you returned?

Correct! Despite a Maths degree it seems I can't do basic subtraction


ALL-IRELAND QUARTER FINAL

LIMERICK (7) -v- WEXFORD (9)

Wexford are becoming the story of the championship so far and victory next weekend would earn them 7th place in the rankings but more importantly a first semi final place since 2007. Both teams will feel they have a good opportunity to progress here, neither will fear the other. I suspect the deciding factor may be the fact that a fourth straight weekend of competitive hurling may catch up with Wexford, if Limerick make the required changes and play to their best I'd cautiously tip my home county. However, the painful memories of 1996 and 2001 are still fresh in my mind, I'll always have a healthy respect for and fear of those pesky Wexicans!!

Predicted result; Limerick by 2

Final word; Can Wexford defy the rankings for a fourth game in a row?


PREVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
1910: Wexford 7-0; Limerick 6-2. (Jones's Road, Dublin)
1918: Limerick 9-5; Wexford 1-3. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1955: Wexford 2-12; Limerick 2-3. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1996: Wexford 1-13; Limerick 0-14. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2001: Wexford 4-10; Limerick 2-15. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2009: Limerick 1-13; Wexford 0-14. (Wexford Park, Wexford)
2011: Limerick 1-21; Wexford 2-13. (Gaelic Grounds, Limerick)


Dublin v Tipperary preview to follow tomorrow.

Big wins today resulting in six positional changes. Limerick move up to 5th but as only 29 points separate them and 7th, defeat to Kilkenny in the semi final would send them back down one or two places, a defeat of 1 to 3 points would move them to 6th.

Tipperary's third win in a row sees them back into second place marginally ahead of Cork, Clare have benefited from Dublin's large defeat, moving ahead of the Dubs despite not playing.

Wexford finish the year in 9th, perhaps a little harsh but a year on year improvement of 315 points has them now snapping at the heels of the top 8. They started the year 700 points adrift and behind Offaly.

Waterford finish the year with their lowest points total and position since June 2006.


Position|(last week)|change|Team|Points
1st |(1)|=|KILKENNY|9171
2nd |(3)|+1|TIPPERARY|8800
3rd |(2)|-1|CORK|8764
4th |(5)|+1|CLARE|8448
5th |(7)|+2|LIMERICK|8429
6th |(4)|-2|DUBLIN|8425
7th |(6)|-1|GALWAY|8400
8th |(8)|=|WATERFORD|8094
9th |(9)|=|WEXFORD|7905
10th |(10)|=|OFFALY|7580

ALL-IRELAND SEMI FINAL

KILKENNY (1) -v- LIMERICK (5)

Kilkenny are so far ahead that even if they were to lose they would still be in 1st no matter what happens, Limerick are guaranteed a positional change as has been detailed in the previous post. But unfortunately for my home county I fear it's down we will be moving as I can't see Kilkenny losing here.

Key area could be the midfield battle, Ryan and Browne have been excellent for Limerick, but Kilkenny will offer a stiff test to this partnership, Richie Hogan is hurler of the year material so far, and one key battle could be TJ Reid v Paudie O'Brien, Reid is having a good year, O'Brien isn't so far, Limerick need the Paudie O'Brien of 2012/2013 to turn up.

Limerick have played two games since Kilkenny won the Leinster final, a long 5 week wait. Will that be a factor? Probably not; this has regularly been the scenario facing Kilkenny in the last 15 years, Brian Cody's team will be right up to speed. Since Cody took charge at the end of 1998, Kilkenny have won 12 out of 14 All-Ireland semi finals and last year was the only time Kilkenny never made it to that stage during his reign. Kilkenny to win by a few, although the ranking points margin predicts a 7 point win.

Predicted result; Kilkenny by 7

This will be their 11th meeting, Limerick without a win since 1973, Brian Cody has been in charge for three of those 10 games and the closest Limerick have gotten so far was a 5 point defeat in 2005.

PREVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
1898: Limerick 3-4; Kilkenny 2-4. (Jones's Road, Dublin)
1933: Kilkenny 1-7; Limerick 0-6. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1935: Kilkenny 2-5; Limerick 2-4. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1936: Limerick 5-6; Kilkenny 1-5. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1940: Limerick 3-7; Kilkenny 1-7. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1973: Limerick 1-21; Kilkenny 1-14. (Croke Park, Dublin)
1974: Kilkenny 3-19; Limerick 1-13. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2005: Kilkenny 0-18; Limerick 0-13. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2007: Kilkenny 2-19; Limerick 1-15. (Croke Park, Dublin)
2012: Kilkenny 4-16; Limerick 1-16. (Semple Stadium, Thurles)

dastardly00 wrote: »

@zombiehanalei

Can Tipp/Cork get to #1 if they win the AI?

Off the top of my head (don't have access to the file right now) the All Ireland champion will definitely finish number 1 and loser of Cork/Tipp will definitely be number 3.

To be honest the predictions mean nothing and any criticism of that can't be argued with. The predictions are just something I do for my own amusement and to just try and keep the thread a little interesting.

In the league this year it was actually reasonably accurate; I won the NHL hurling pools on the GAA forum here and that was mainly on the back of me using the rankings to predict all division 2 and 3 games while I used my own judgement on the division 1 games.

It's not possible to predict what will happen, all 'Kilkenny by 7' means is that Kilkenny are adjudged to be 7 points better a team than Limerick at present, as opposed to saying Kilkenny will win by 7.

And as though to further validate your criticism the net effect of last weekends game is to say Kilkenny are now 8 points better a team than Limerick despite only beating them by 2. But as I said, the predictions are essentially meaningless, but I like to think they make the thread a bit more interesting.

Pointless predictions aside, I think it's a fairly solid ranking system.

Table ranking teams in order of points gained to lost over 2014. McCarthy cup teams highlighted in bold.

Most improved teams are Wexford, Kilkenny and Tipperary. Tyrone are the most improved team in the country following their successes in division 3B and the Rackard cup.


Team|points change|Positional change
Tyrone|+557|+2
Longford|+475|+2
Wexford|+315|+1
Derry|+262|+3
Tipperary|+260|+1
Kilkenny|+257|=
Mayo|+257|=
Fermanagh|+252|+2
Kerry|+234|+2
Kildare|+201|+1
Limerick|+137|+2
Galway|+103|=
Donegal|+92|+1
Leitrim|+53|=
Wicklow|+37|=
Laois|+14|=
Antrim|-17|=
London|-18|=
Cork|-57|+1
Monaghan|-60|-1
Offaly|-68|-1
Carlow|-70|=
Meath|-119|-1
Dublin|-132|=
Armagh|-163|=
Roscommon|-172|-1
Fingal|-195|-1
Warwickshire|-222|-2
Westmeath|-276|-2
Waterford|-321|-2
Clare|-343|-2
Sligo|-352|-1
Down|-385|-3
Louth|-536|-1

ALL-IRELAND FINAL

KILKENNY (1) -v- TIPPERARY (2)

The more things change the more they stay the same, just when it seemed the whole thing had been blown wide open in 2013 we're back to a Kilkenny v Tipperary final. Since 2009 this will be the 4th All-Ireland final, in addition to three National hurling league final meetings over that period. Of those six meetings, Tipperary's AI final victory in 2010 remains their solitary victory.

Tippereary's response to their defeat to Limerick in the Munster semi final has been emphatic, they struggled to shake off Galway for the first three quarters before blowing them away in the closing stages and they haven't looked back. Kilkenny didn't have too much trouble in Leinster aside from uncharacteristically taking their foot off the gas in the last 10 minutes in the drawn game v Galway. And they dug deep in torrential conditions in the semi final v Limerick; one hell of a game which ultimately was decided by Kilkenny just having that extra bit of cuteness in front of goal at both ends.

Interestingly, both teams have played almost identical opposition. Both hammered Offaly, both hammered Dublin, both were given trouble by Galway before ultimately winning relatively easily and both were involved in tight tussles with Limerick.

In terms of the ranking points gap, Kilkenny are currently rated as being two points better. Tipperary are within close enough range that a victory will earn them top spot. Worth noting however, that in their 5 championship games Tipperary have beaten the prediction by 4.4 points on average, while Kilkenny have beaten it by 2.2 points.


Predicted result; KILKENNY by 2




PREVIOUS 10 CHAMPIONSHIP MEETINGS
1967: Kilkenny 3-8; Tipperary 2-7. (Croke Park)
1971: Tipperary 5-17; Kilkenny 5-14. (Croke Park)
1991: Tipperary 1-16; Kilkenny 0-15. (Croke Park)
2002: Kilkenny 1-20; Tipperary 1-16. (Croke Park)
2003: Kilkenny 3-18; Tipperary 0-15. (Croke Park)
2009: Kilkenny 2-22; Tipperary 0-23. (Croke Park)
2010: Tipperary 4-17; Kilkenny 1-18. (Croke Park)
2011: Kilkenny 2-17; Tipperary 1-16. (Croke Park)
2012: Kilkenny 4-24; Tipperary 1-15. (Croke Park)
2013: Kilkenny 0-20; Tipperary 1-14. (Nowlan Park, Kilkenny)

This will be their 25th championship meeting; Of the 24 previous meetings the win count stands at Tipperary 13-11 Kilkenny.

Browney7 wrote: »

Hanelai, have you ever looked at the FIFA ranking system and do you think it would work for hurling? Your's is based on a points exchange between teams but the FIFA one is based on an average over the past 4 years?

I have looked at a bit but never to the extent of attempting to implement it for hurling. It has a few flaws I don't agree with, for example the Regional strength weighting is totally unnecessary I feel, and the rankings themselves throw up some unusual results at times.

In terms of the Mathematics of it it would be a little too time consuming, my programming skills are middling at best so I know I wouldn't be able to create something to work around the FIFA system. As it stands I have made the process fairly simple for the IRB style ranking system as I know MS Excel fairly well and it's basically a box ticking exercise for me now.

The best system I believe is the ELO system, if I had the time (and thankfully I don't!!) I'd go back and calculate the hurling rankings with the ELO method. If you follow the FIFA rankings I recommend checking them out;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings
http://www.eloratings.net/world.html