Advertisement
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
https://www.boards.ie/group/1878-subscribers-forum

Private Group for paid up members of Boards.ie. Join the club.
Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

Popular Ignorance of Statistics

245

Comments

  • #32
    ytpe2r5bxkn0c1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ytpe2r5bxkn0c1


    Lies, damn lies and statistics.


  • #33
    solomafioso
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,095 ✭✭✭solomafioso


    bnt wrote: »
    * source: Wikipedia

    Now I know you're taking the p!ss! :pac:


  • #34
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,279 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    Google the Sally Clark case for the damage that ignorance of statistical methods can do.

    Also, when ice cream sales go up so do drownings. Therefore, eating ice cream can cause you to drown!


  • #35
    OldGoat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭OldGoat


    - Statistics works with probabilities, not certainties.
    - Statistics works with populations, not individuals.
    - Statistics describe reality without judgement.

    I am 100% certain (certainties) that
    in my case (individual)
    you are mistaken (judgement)
    :D

    I'm older than Minecraft goats.



  • #36
    The Diabolical Monocle
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,618 ✭✭✭The Diabolical Monocle


    People posting stats don't always seem able to differentiate average and median however.


  • Advertisement
  • #37
    Procasinator
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭Procasinator


    The Diabolical Monocle wrote: »
    People posting stats don't always seem able to differentiate average and median however.

    You probably want to say the mean and the median. While usually when some uses average they are implying the mean, it could also refer to values like the median or the mode.


  • #38
    Mr.David
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,703 ✭✭✭Mr.David


    Very true.

    Same thing applies to discussion regarding 'average income'.

    Suppose you take a sample of 5 people, 4 of whom earn €30k/annum and the 5th earns €250k/annum. The average income of the group is €74k/annum despite the fact that 80% of the group earn much less than that.

    People don't grasp the concept of skew. In this instance, the distribution of earnings has a lower bound of €0/annum but no upper bound and so upside outliers have a large distorting effect.


  • #39
    Aglomerado
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,799 ✭✭✭Aglomerado


    Mr.David wrote: »
    Very true.

    Same thing applies to discussion regarding 'average income'.

    Suppose you take a sample of 5 people, 4 of whom earn €30k/annum and the 5th earns €250k/annum. The average income of the group is €74k/annum despite the fact that 80% of the group earn much less than that.

    People don't grasp the concept of skew. In this instance, the distribution of earnings has a lower bound of €0/annum but no upper bound and so upside outliers have a large distorting effect.

    I wish people would take this into account when reading reports of public sector earnings. Sure, the 'mean' wage is x amount, but the 'median' is closer to reality.


  • #40
    Peter B
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭Peter B


    shruikan2553 wrote: »
    You can use statistics to prove anything you want. There's a graph of the decline of murder rates and decline of internet explorer usage. Correlation does not mean causation.

    Statistics are not proving anything here


  • #41
    Penny Tration
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,687 ✭✭✭✭Penny Tration


    All I've gleaned from the OP is confirmation that I'm a hell of a lot shorter than average. :(


  • Advertisement
  • #42
    looking_around
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭looking_around


    lazygal wrote: »
    I'm 100% sure that 99% of posters don't care.

    I do like to annoy my mathsy husband with phrases like 'giving 110%' though.

    That drives me nuts.

    played a game that half way through said something like "120% finished". I stop playing the game XD.


  • #43
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,700 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    bnt wrote: »
    Maybe I've been on Boards too long, but I wish people would understand some basic things about Statistics. In many threads here, and in the media, you can see a lack of understanding every day. People who don't get what Statistics can and can't do could at least start with the following:

    - Statistics works with probabilities, not certainties.
    - Statistics works with populations, not individuals.
    - Statistics describe reality without judgement.

    For example: the average adult male height in Ireland is 177.5 cm*. What do we learn from that?
    - "are all Irish men that tall?" No, obviously.
    - "Is there an "average man" who is that height?" The media seems to like this one, but it's irrelevant.
    - If you are much shorter than that, is there something wrong with you? Possibly, but irrelevant, The statistics just describe how things are, not how they should be. No judgment.

    Now go to the Netherlands, where the average adult male height is 183.8 cm*, among the tallest in the world at the moment.
    - "are all Dutch men taller than all Irish men?" No.
    - "are Dutch men taller on average?" Yes.
    - "Only 6cm? Have you seen their football team?" The football team isn't a representative sample: they've been selected for fitness factors which may include height.
    - "but ... but ... I know a Dutch man, and I'm taller!" Doesn't matter. The statistics describe the population, not individuals.
    - "but that contradicts the statistics!" No, it doesn't. Both populations naturally include people who are much taller and shorter than the average.

    This is something I see here a lot. Posters thinking that, because they've found something that doesn't match the statistics, the statistics are wrong. Nope. Sure, statistics can be wrong, and they definitely can be misused, but the existence of "exceptions" doesn't invalidate them at all. The population of Ireland includes some very tall men, and they are included in the statistics, but you're still shorter than Dutch men on average.

    * source: Wikipedia

    (This was originally for the "Trivial Things That Annoy You" thread, but then I realised it's not Trivial. If I put this in the Maths forum, they'd be going "well, duh". :o )

    I don't agree. Some things are capable of being measured exactly e.g how many people over a certain age died in a particular year. We have a Central Statistics Office and I would imagine they think they are publishing reliable information.

    http://www.cso.ie/en/index.html


  • #44
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,704 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    TheBody wrote: »
    I always laugh at those shampoo adverts that say stuff at the bottom of the screen like "95% of 60 people agree".

    I too like to play 'hunt the disclaimer' on cosmetics and 'supplements' ads in tv and print although i feel like I'm gonna need a bigger higher definition tv to catch them as they're often printed in white text over an actress wearing white clothes while standing in the snow on a cloudy day.

    regarding the OP, the human brain is absolutely rubbish at processing probabilities.

    If I buy a lottery ticket, I have a 1 in 2 million chance of winning. Hmm, don't like those odds, so I'll buy two tickets, I've just doubled my chances to 1 in a million...
    er wait, nope, now I only have a 2 in 2 million chance of winning, i've increased my chances of winning from .00000005% to 0.000001% Still doubled my chances though :)

    If i ask you
    Pick the person from this list who is most likely to describe a Mathematician
    1 - Male - 40years old
    2 - Male 40 years old - has a cat
    3 - Male - 40 years old - wears glasses and/or has a crazy beard

    A large percentage of the population will pick options 2 or 3 even though statistically, it has to be option 1 because options 2 and 3 are all subsets of option 1 and are by definition less probable

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • #45
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,056 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Akrasia wrote: »
    If i ask you
    Pick the person from this list who is most likely to describe a Mathematician
    1 - Male - 40years old
    2 - Male 40 years old - has a cat
    3 - Male - 40 years old - wears glasses and/or has a crazy beard

    A large percentage of the population will pick options 2 or 3 even though statistically, it has to be option 1 because options 2 and 3 are all subsets of option 1 and are by definition less probable

    Perhaps if you phrased the question a little more clearly, it might help...


  • #46
    Arthur Beesley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    I'm somewhat annoyed that you started this thread, OP. You are so smart, I wish I could be more like you. :rolleyes: No doubt Mensa will come knocking to head hunt you.


  • #47
    Arthur Beesley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    bnt wrote: »
    That's up to the coach to decide. If he's selecting for the ability to flatten incoming strikers the way Jaap Stam used to do, then sure. My point is that the team is not a representative sample of Dutch men.

    you mean the Dutch don't all play football at a professional level? I'm glad you explained that to us.


  • #48
    Arthur Beesley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    Aglomerado wrote: »
    I wish people would take this into account when reading reports of public sector earnings. Sure, the 'mean' wage is x amount, but the 'median' is closer to reality.

    Still overpaid though, since they don't mention the gold plated pensions etc. ;)


  • #49
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,056 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    I'm concerned by how long it's taking you to read this thread, Arthur...


  • #50
    Arthur Beesley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    looking_around wrote: »
    That drives me nuts.

    played a game that half way through said something like "120% finished". I stop playing the game XD.

    Well you were already finished, so why would you or indeed how could continue playing?

    That'd be like continuing searching when you find something in the last place you looked...


  • #51
    Arthur Beesley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    Ficheall wrote: »
    I'm concerned by how long it's taking you to read this thread, Arthur...

    Thanks for the concern, but I have more going on that just this thread. :) Plus I had to look up the meaning of XD.


  • Advertisement
  • #52
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,700 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Arthur Beesley wrote: »
    Still overpaid though, since they don't mention the gold plated pensions etc. ;)

    About 1.7 million in private employment, many in part time and temporary jobs. About 280,000 in public sector employment mostly full time and including the likes of politicians and judges. Comparing the average wage in each is not a proper comparison. What is for certain is that the biggest incomes by far are available in the private sector, dwarfing anything available in the public sector.


  • #53
    FunLover18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,793 ✭✭✭FunLover18


    You can't deny the stats


  • #54
    biko
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,060 ✭✭✭✭biko


    mickydoomsux wrote: »
    Irish people hate stats and figures because they ruin the down the pub anecdotes by proving them to be complete bull****.
    Irish pub statistics are based on false-consensus bias (where a person falsely believes that everyone else, if asked, would agree with them).


  • #55
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,056 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Not really stats, but a nice result nonetheless:
    If you add up all the natural numbers (ie. 1,2,3,4,5,6....) you get -1/12.

    math_notevenonce.jpg


  • #56
    Arthur Beesley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    About 1.7 million in private employment, many in part time and temporary jobs. About 280,000 in public sector employment mostly full time and including the likes of politicians and judges. Comparing the average wage in each is not a proper comparison. What is for certain is that the biggest incomes by far are available in the private sector, dwarfing anything available in the public sector.

    Sorry, you are correct - they are indeed grossly underpaid and their pensions are very poor.


  • #57
    minotour
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 655 ✭✭✭minotour


    Statistically the average person has less than 2 legs...............heard that somewhere once.


  • #58
    rubadub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,387 ✭✭✭✭rubadub


    green_screen wrote: »
    All I've gleaned from the OP is confirmation that I'm a hell of a lot shorter than average. :(
    Maybe not. The Irish one says its self reported, and past threads confirm that people overestimate their height. Your :( would suggest people see being short as a negative thing, therefore are likely to overestimate.

    So you are shorter than what people say they are, and load of 6ft people are going around saying they are 6' 2''.

    This is a common flaw with stats, you have to know how they were taken and if there are any reasons it would be skewed. This is especially important if people can see a reason to favour an outcome. e.g. a study with self reported eye colour should be OK, why would people spoof.

    What is interesting is that there are 3 dutch figures and the measured one was higher than the 2 self reported ones. However we need to know more about the study.

    reading the link they picked people up to 21 years old.
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23222908

    People have been getting taller as years go on so you would expect a higher average if only picking people born recently. A bigger skew in the figures is neglecting older people who are naturally getting shorter over time.

    If you went into a girls school and asked for self reported weight I would expect it to be lower than reality. If it was measured and to be weighed by doctors then I expect it to be even lower again, as the bigger ones would be embarrassed and simply not volunteer.


  • #59
    csallmighty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭csallmighty


    60% of the time, it works every time.


  • #60
    Cool Mo D
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,419 ✭✭✭Cool Mo D


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Not really stats, but a nice result nonetheless:
    If you add up all the natural numbers (ie. 1,2,3,4,5,6....) you get -1/12.

    math_notevenonce.jpg

    No it doesn't. Not unless you subtly redefine what the equals sign means.


  • Advertisement
  • #61
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,056 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Cool Mo D wrote: »
    No it doesn't. Not unless you subtly redefine what the equals sign means.

    Shhh! If it's good enough for Ramanujan, then it's good enough for me :P


Advertisement