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Popular Ignorance of Statistics

  • 08-07-2014 8:54am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,114 ✭✭✭✭


    Maybe I've been on Boards too long, but I wish people would understand some basic things about Statistics. In many threads here, and in the media, you can see a lack of understanding every day. People who don't get what Statistics can and can't do could at least start with the following:

    - Statistics works with probabilities, not certainties.
    - Statistics works with populations, not individuals.
    - Statistics describe reality without judgement.

    For example: the average adult male height in Ireland is 177.5 cm*. What do we learn from that?
    - "are all Irish men that tall?" No, obviously.
    - "Is there an "average man" who is that height?" The media seems to like this one, but it's irrelevant.
    - If you are much shorter than that, is there something wrong with you? Possibly, but irrelevant, The statistics just describe how things are, not how they should be. No judgment.

    Now go to the Netherlands, where the average adult male height is 183.8 cm*, among the tallest in the world at the moment.
    - "are all Dutch men taller than all Irish men?" No.
    - "are Dutch men taller on average?" Yes.
    - "Only 6cm? Have you seen their football team?" The football team isn't a representative sample: they've been selected for fitness factors which may include height.
    - "but ... but ... I know a Dutch man, and I'm taller!" Doesn't matter. The statistics describe the population, not individuals.
    - "but that contradicts the statistics!" No, it doesn't. Both populations naturally include people who are much taller and shorter than the average.

    This is something I see here a lot. Posters thinking that, because they've found something that doesn't match the statistics, the statistics are wrong. Nope. Sure, statistics can be wrong, and they definitely can be misused, but the existence of "exceptions" doesn't invalidate them at all. The population of Ireland includes some very tall men, and they are included in the statistics, but you're still shorter than Dutch men on average.

    * source: Wikipedia

    (This was originally for the "Trivial Things That Annoy You" thread, but then I realised it's not Trivial. If I put this in the Maths forum, they'd be going "well, duh". :o )

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



«13

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,397 ✭✭✭✭Birneybau


    87.36584% of statistics are made up.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,484 ✭✭✭username123


    bnt wrote: »
    Maybe I've been on Boards too long, but I wish people would understand some basic things about Statistics. In many threads here..................

    .........This is something I see here a lot. Posters thinking that, because they've found something that doesn't match the statistics, the statistics are wrong. Nope.

    Examples of threads or posts where you've seen this?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,533 ✭✭✭Donkey Oaty


    bnt wrote: »
    If I put this in the Maths forum, they'd be going "well, duh". :o )

    As, I suspect, will many in AH.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,797 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake


    Birneybau wrote: »
    87.36584% of statistics are made up.

    74.78% of people knew that already


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    But if people understood that they might have to drop their self rightness and smug certainty about every thing and use their brains.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭wazky


    74.78% of people knew that already

    The other 47 % struggle with basic maths.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,022 ✭✭✭jamesbere


    So I'm taller then the average Dutch person, well ain't that something


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭keith16


    Data / stats can't tell you everything, but it can provide massive insights.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,114 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    Examples of threads or posts where you've seen this?
    I'm posting in AH, not writing a paper on the topic.

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,045 ✭✭✭✭gramar


    jamesbere wrote: »
    So I'm taller then the average Dutch person, well ain't that something

    You've just broke statistics.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,295 ✭✭✭✭Duggy747


    This thread needs 34% more Alf Stewart.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭lazygal


    I'm 100% sure that 99% of posters don't care.

    I do like to annoy my mathsy husband with phrases like 'giving 110%' though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,484 ✭✭✭username123


    bnt wrote: »
    I'm posting in AH, not writing a paper on the topic.

    100% sure you're just talking ****e then.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,414 ✭✭✭Awkward Badger


    bnt wrote: »
    In many threads here, and in the media, you can see a lack of understanding every day.

    In fairness in many threads and in the media you can usually see a lack of understanding or misuse of pretty much anything that can be misused or misunderstood to enable someone to make their point or sell a copy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,779 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    bnt wrote: »
    - "Only 6cm? Have you seen their football team?" The football team isn't a representative sample: they've been selected for fitness factors which may

    Height is a factor in fitness?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,637 ✭✭✭TheBody


    I always laugh at those shampoo adverts that say stuff at the bottom of the screen like "95% of 60 people agree".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,099 ✭✭✭maggiepip


    Heres an example of something that gets sensationalized: you read that doing "x" increases your chance of cancer by 60% -shock horror - but if the normal chances of cancer were .5% then an increase of 60% would only bring your increased chance of cancer up to .8%. Sometimes I dont think people get that properly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,779 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    maggiepip wrote: »
    Heres an example of something that gets sensationalized: you read that doing "x" increases your chance of cancer by 60% -shock horror - but if the normal chances of cancer were .5% then an increase of 60% would only bring your increased chance of cancer up to .8%. Sometimes I dont think people get that properly.

    I'm pretty sure the people telling you these statistics are banking on people not getting them properly - to hawk whatever product/diet/etc they are selling.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,287 ✭✭✭mickydoomsux


    Irish people hate stats and figures because they ruin the down the pub anecdotes by proving them to be complete bull****.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,114 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    osarusan wrote: »
    Height is a factor in fitness?
    That's up to the coach to decide. If he's selecting for the ability to flatten incoming strikers the way Jaap Stam used to do, then sure. My point is that the team is not a representative sample of Dutch men.

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,114 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    Similar to what maggiepip pointed out, I've seen stats used to justify male circumcision. Apparently, having a foreskin slightly increases the risk of getting cancer of the penis ... the statistical risk is increased from infinitesimal to minuscule. :rolleyes:

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,116 ✭✭✭RDM_83 again


    My personal pet peeve is the way averages are always used to describe the "normal", its fine for stuff like height* but take number of sexual partners as an example i have seen (in an absolutely terrible in other ways womans magazine article). Wages is another time its misused.

    you have 9 people with numbers varying between 0-10 but if you have one person with a 100 partners you have a really skewed view if its an average used.

    *because its a continuous scale with no one at 0 and few very high or low value outliers


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,147 ✭✭✭PizzamanIRL


    You're wrong. I'm not ignorant toward statistics.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,779 ✭✭✭A Neurotic


    I was reading some interesting stuff about how wobbly healthcare professionals' grasp of statistics can be yesterday:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28166019

    http://www.vox.com/2014/6/24/5837832/is-america-better-than-europe-at-treating-cancer


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,113 ✭✭✭shruikan2553


    You can use statistics to prove anything you want. There's a graph of the decline of murder rates and decline of internet explorer usage. Correlation does not mean causation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 260 ✭✭Franticfrank


    Statistics are great! And they aren't always so boring...has anyone stopped by Statista? It's pretty cool.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,114 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    You're wrong. I'm not ignorant toward statistics.
    You know, I actually got that one ... :o

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,942 ✭✭✭topper75


    In fairness in many threads and in the media you can usually see a lack of understanding or misuse of pretty much anything that can be misused or misunderstood to enable someone to make their point or sell a copy.

    Yup - that is the only data/figures that matters to Joe Journo.

    My favourites are damned lies. They are more exciting than ordinary lies but not so bad that they warp reality into a knot like statistics.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭the culture of deference




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,196 ✭✭✭✭jimgoose


    I've been saying it for years - statistics, like shotguns, credit-cards and strong liquor, should be kept away from children, imbeciles, and people who spend weeks arguing back-and-forth with each other on epic five-hundred-page threads. :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ytpe2r5bxkn0c1


    Lies, damn lies and statistics.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,095 ✭✭✭solomafioso


    bnt wrote: »
    * source: Wikipedia

    Now I know you're taking the p!ss! :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,226 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    Google the Sally Clark case for the damage that ignorance of statistical methods can do.

    Also, when ice cream sales go up so do drownings. Therefore, eating ice cream can cause you to drown!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,640 ✭✭✭✭OldGoat


    - Statistics works with probabilities, not certainties.
    - Statistics works with populations, not individuals.
    - Statistics describe reality without judgement.

    I am 100% certain (certainties) that
    in my case (individual)
    you are mistaken (judgement)
    :D

    I'm older than Minecraft goats.



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,618 ✭✭✭The Diabolical Monocle


    People posting stats don't always seem able to differentiate average and median however.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭Procasinator


    People posting stats don't always seem able to differentiate average and median however.

    You probably want to say the mean and the median. While usually when some uses average they are implying the mean, it could also refer to values like the median or the mode.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,704 ✭✭✭Mr.David


    Very true.

    Same thing applies to discussion regarding 'average income'.

    Suppose you take a sample of 5 people, 4 of whom earn €30k/annum and the 5th earns €250k/annum. The average income of the group is €74k/annum despite the fact that 80% of the group earn much less than that.

    People don't grasp the concept of skew. In this instance, the distribution of earnings has a lower bound of €0/annum but no upper bound and so upside outliers have a large distorting effect.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,787 ✭✭✭Aglomerado


    Mr.David wrote: »
    Very true.

    Same thing applies to discussion regarding 'average income'.

    Suppose you take a sample of 5 people, 4 of whom earn €30k/annum and the 5th earns €250k/annum. The average income of the group is €74k/annum despite the fact that 80% of the group earn much less than that.

    People don't grasp the concept of skew. In this instance, the distribution of earnings has a lower bound of €0/annum but no upper bound and so upside outliers have a large distorting effect.

    I wish people would take this into account when reading reports of public sector earnings. Sure, the 'mean' wage is x amount, but the 'median' is closer to reality.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭Peter B


    You can use statistics to prove anything you want. There's a graph of the decline of murder rates and decline of internet explorer usage. Correlation does not mean causation.

    Statistics are not proving anything here


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,687 ✭✭✭✭Penny Tration


    All I've gleaned from the OP is confirmation that I'm a hell of a lot shorter than average. :(


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭looking_around


    lazygal wrote: »
    I'm 100% sure that 99% of posters don't care.

    I do like to annoy my mathsy husband with phrases like 'giving 110%' though.

    That drives me nuts.

    played a game that half way through said something like "120% finished". I stop playing the game XD.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,302 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    bnt wrote: »
    Maybe I've been on Boards too long, but I wish people would understand some basic things about Statistics. In many threads here, and in the media, you can see a lack of understanding every day. People who don't get what Statistics can and can't do could at least start with the following:

    - Statistics works with probabilities, not certainties.
    - Statistics works with populations, not individuals.
    - Statistics describe reality without judgement.

    For example: the average adult male height in Ireland is 177.5 cm*. What do we learn from that?
    - "are all Irish men that tall?" No, obviously.
    - "Is there an "average man" who is that height?" The media seems to like this one, but it's irrelevant.
    - If you are much shorter than that, is there something wrong with you? Possibly, but irrelevant, The statistics just describe how things are, not how they should be. No judgment.

    Now go to the Netherlands, where the average adult male height is 183.8 cm*, among the tallest in the world at the moment.
    - "are all Dutch men taller than all Irish men?" No.
    - "are Dutch men taller on average?" Yes.
    - "Only 6cm? Have you seen their football team?" The football team isn't a representative sample: they've been selected for fitness factors which may include height.
    - "but ... but ... I know a Dutch man, and I'm taller!" Doesn't matter. The statistics describe the population, not individuals.
    - "but that contradicts the statistics!" No, it doesn't. Both populations naturally include people who are much taller and shorter than the average.

    This is something I see here a lot. Posters thinking that, because they've found something that doesn't match the statistics, the statistics are wrong. Nope. Sure, statistics can be wrong, and they definitely can be misused, but the existence of "exceptions" doesn't invalidate them at all. The population of Ireland includes some very tall men, and they are included in the statistics, but you're still shorter than Dutch men on average.

    * source: Wikipedia

    (This was originally for the "Trivial Things That Annoy You" thread, but then I realised it's not Trivial. If I put this in the Maths forum, they'd be going "well, duh". :o )

    I don't agree. Some things are capable of being measured exactly e.g how many people over a certain age died in a particular year. We have a Central Statistics Office and I would imagine they think they are publishing reliable information.

    http://www.cso.ie/en/index.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,088 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    TheBody wrote: »
    I always laugh at those shampoo adverts that say stuff at the bottom of the screen like "95% of 60 people agree".

    I too like to play 'hunt the disclaimer' on cosmetics and 'supplements' ads in tv and print although i feel like I'm gonna need a bigger higher definition tv to catch them as they're often printed in white text over an actress wearing white clothes while standing in the snow on a cloudy day.

    regarding the OP, the human brain is absolutely rubbish at processing probabilities.

    If I buy a lottery ticket, I have a 1 in 2 million chance of winning. Hmm, don't like those odds, so I'll buy two tickets, I've just doubled my chances to 1 in a million...
    er wait, nope, now I only have a 2 in 2 million chance of winning, i've increased my chances of winning from .00000005% to 0.000001% Still doubled my chances though :)

    If i ask you
    Pick the person from this list who is most likely to describe a Mathematician
    1 - Male - 40years old
    2 - Male 40 years old - has a cat
    3 - Male - 40 years old - wears glasses and/or has a crazy beard

    A large percentage of the population will pick options 2 or 3 even though statistically, it has to be option 1 because options 2 and 3 are all subsets of option 1 and are by definition less probable


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,036 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Akrasia wrote: »
    If i ask you
    Pick the person from this list who is most likely to describe a Mathematician
    1 - Male - 40years old
    2 - Male 40 years old - has a cat
    3 - Male - 40 years old - wears glasses and/or has a crazy beard

    A large percentage of the population will pick options 2 or 3 even though statistically, it has to be option 1 because options 2 and 3 are all subsets of option 1 and are by definition less probable

    Perhaps if you phrased the question a little more clearly, it might help...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    I'm somewhat annoyed that you started this thread, OP. You are so smart, I wish I could be more like you. :rolleyes: No doubt Mensa will come knocking to head hunt you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    bnt wrote: »
    That's up to the coach to decide. If he's selecting for the ability to flatten incoming strikers the way Jaap Stam used to do, then sure. My point is that the team is not a representative sample of Dutch men.

    you mean the Dutch don't all play football at a professional level? I'm glad you explained that to us.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    Aglomerado wrote: »
    I wish people would take this into account when reading reports of public sector earnings. Sure, the 'mean' wage is x amount, but the 'median' is closer to reality.

    Still overpaid though, since they don't mention the gold plated pensions etc. ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,036 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    I'm concerned by how long it's taking you to read this thread, Arthur...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    That drives me nuts.

    played a game that half way through said something like "120% finished". I stop playing the game XD.

    Well you were already finished, so why would you or indeed how could continue playing?

    That'd be like continuing searching when you find something in the last place you looked...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭Arthur Beesley


    Ficheall wrote: »
    I'm concerned by how long it's taking you to read this thread, Arthur...

    Thanks for the concern, but I have more going on that just this thread. :) Plus I had to look up the meaning of XD.


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