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Popular Ignorance of Statistics

  • 08-07-2014 09:54AM
    #1
    bnt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭


    Maybe I've been on Boards too long, but I wish people would understand some basic things about Statistics. In many threads here, and in the media, you can see a lack of understanding every day. People who don't get what Statistics can and can't do could at least start with the following:

    - Statistics works with probabilities, not certainties.
    - Statistics works with populations, not individuals.
    - Statistics describe reality without judgement.

    For example: the average adult male height in Ireland is 177.5 cm*. What do we learn from that?
    - "are all Irish men that tall?" No, obviously.
    - "Is there an "average man" who is that height?" The media seems to like this one, but it's irrelevant.
    - If you are much shorter than that, is there something wrong with you? Possibly, but irrelevant, The statistics just describe how things are, not how they should be. No judgment.

    Now go to the Netherlands, where the average adult male height is 183.8 cm*, among the tallest in the world at the moment.
    - "are all Dutch men taller than all Irish men?" No.
    - "are Dutch men taller on average?" Yes.
    - "Only 6cm? Have you seen their football team?" The football team isn't a representative sample: they've been selected for fitness factors which may include height.
    - "but ... but ... I know a Dutch man, and I'm taller!" Doesn't matter. The statistics describe the population, not individuals.
    - "but that contradicts the statistics!" No, it doesn't. Both populations naturally include people who are much taller and shorter than the average.

    This is something I see here a lot. Posters thinking that, because they've found something that doesn't match the statistics, the statistics are wrong. Nope. Sure, statistics can be wrong, and they definitely can be misused, but the existence of "exceptions" doesn't invalidate them at all. The population of Ireland includes some very tall men, and they are included in the statistics, but you're still shorter than Dutch men on average.

    * source: Wikipedia

    (This was originally for the "Trivial Things That Annoy You" thread, but then I realised it's not Trivial. If I put this in the Maths forum, they'd be going "well, duh". :o )

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



«1345

Comments

  • #2
    Birneybau
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,445 ✭✭✭✭Birneybau


    87.36584% of statistics are made up.


  • #3
    username123
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,484 ✭✭✭username123


    bnt wrote: »
    Maybe I've been on Boards too long, but I wish people would understand some basic things about Statistics. In many threads here..................

    .........This is something I see here a lot. Posters thinking that, because they've found something that doesn't match the statistics, the statistics are wrong. Nope.

    Examples of threads or posts where you've seen this?


  • #4
    Donkey Oaty
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,533 ✭✭✭Donkey Oaty


    bnt wrote: »
    If I put this in the Maths forum, they'd be going "well, duh". :o )

    As, I suspect, will many in AH.


  • #5
    For Forks Sake
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,948 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake


    Birneybau wrote: »
    87.36584% of statistics are made up.

    74.78% of people knew that already


  • #6
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,694 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    But if people understood that they might have to drop their self rightness and smug certainty about every thing and use their brains.


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  • #7
    wazky
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭wazky


    For Forks Sake wrote: »
    74.78% of people knew that already

    The other 47 % struggle with basic maths.


  • #8
    jamesbere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,022 ✭✭✭jamesbere


    So I'm taller then the average Dutch person, well ain't that something


  • #9
    keith16
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭keith16


    Data / stats can't tell you everything, but it can provide massive insights.


  • #10
    bnt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    username123 wrote: »
    Examples of threads or posts where you've seen this?
    I'm posting in AH, not writing a paper on the topic.

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • #11
    gramar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,045 ✭✭✭✭gramar


    jamesbere wrote: »
    So I'm taller then the average Dutch person, well ain't that something

    You've just broke statistics.


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  • #12
    Duggy747
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,295 ✭✭✭✭Duggy747


    This thread needs 34% more Alf Stewart.


  • #13
    lazygal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭lazygal


    I'm 100% sure that 99% of posters don't care.

    I do like to annoy my mathsy husband with phrases like 'giving 110%' though.


  • #14
    username123
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,484 ✭✭✭username123


    bnt wrote: »
    I'm posting in AH, not writing a paper on the topic.

    100% sure you're just talking ****e then.


  • #15
    Awkward Badger
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,414 ✭✭✭Awkward Badger


    bnt wrote: »
    In many threads here, and in the media, you can see a lack of understanding every day.

    In fairness in many threads and in the media you can usually see a lack of understanding or misuse of pretty much anything that can be misused or misunderstood to enable someone to make their point or sell a copy.


  • #16
    osarusan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,955 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    bnt wrote: »
    - "Only 6cm? Have you seen their football team?" The football team isn't a representative sample: they've been selected for fitness factors which may

    Height is a factor in fitness?


  • #17
    TheBody
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,657 ✭✭✭TheBody


    I always laugh at those shampoo adverts that say stuff at the bottom of the screen like "95% of 60 people agree".


  • #18
    maggiepip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,099 ✭✭✭maggiepip


    Heres an example of something that gets sensationalized: you read that doing "x" increases your chance of cancer by 60% -shock horror - but if the normal chances of cancer were .5% then an increase of 60% would only bring your increased chance of cancer up to .8%. Sometimes I dont think people get that properly.


  • #19
    osarusan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,955 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    maggiepip wrote: »
    Heres an example of something that gets sensationalized: you read that doing "x" increases your chance of cancer by 60% -shock horror - but if the normal chances of cancer were .5% then an increase of 60% would only bring your increased chance of cancer up to .8%. Sometimes I dont think people get that properly.

    I'm pretty sure the people telling you these statistics are banking on people not getting them properly - to hawk whatever product/diet/etc they are selling.


  • #20
    mickydoomsux
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,287 ✭✭✭mickydoomsux


    Irish people hate stats and figures because they ruin the down the pub anecdotes by proving them to be complete bull****.


  • #21
    bnt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    osarusan wrote: »
    Height is a factor in fitness?
    That's up to the coach to decide. If he's selecting for the ability to flatten incoming strikers the way Jaap Stam used to do, then sure. My point is that the team is not a representative sample of Dutch men.

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



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  • #22
    bnt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    Similar to what maggiepip pointed out, I've seen stats used to justify male circumcision. Apparently, having a foreskin slightly increases the risk of getting cancer of the penis ... the statistical risk is increased from infinitesimal to minuscule. :rolleyes:

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • #23
    RDM_83 again
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,116 ✭✭✭RDM_83 again


    My personal pet peeve is the way averages are always used to describe the "normal", its fine for stuff like height* but take number of sexual partners as an example i have seen (in an absolutely terrible in other ways womans magazine article). Wages is another time its misused.

    you have 9 people with numbers varying between 0-10 but if you have one person with a 100 partners you have a really skewed view if its an average used.

    *because its a continuous scale with no one at 0 and few very high or low value outliers


  • #24
    PizzamanIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,147 ✭✭✭PizzamanIRL


    You're wrong. I'm not ignorant toward statistics.


  • #25
    A Neurotic
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,779 ✭✭✭A Neurotic


    I was reading some interesting stuff about how wobbly healthcare professionals' grasp of statistics can be yesterday:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28166019

    http://www.vox.com/2014/6/24/5837832/is-america-better-than-europe-at-treating-cancer


  • #26
    shruikan2553
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,113 ✭✭✭shruikan2553


    You can use statistics to prove anything you want. There's a graph of the decline of murder rates and decline of internet explorer usage. Correlation does not mean causation.


  • #27
    Franticfrank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 260 ✭✭Franticfrank


    Statistics are great! And they aren't always so boring...has anyone stopped by Statista? It's pretty cool.


  • #28
    bnt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    PizzamanIRL wrote: »
    You're wrong. I'm not ignorant toward statistics.
    You know, I actually got that one ... :o

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • #29
    topper75
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,942 ✭✭✭topper75


    Awkward Badger wrote: »
    In fairness in many threads and in the media you can usually see a lack of understanding or misuse of pretty much anything that can be misused or misunderstood to enable someone to make their point or sell a copy.

    Yup - that is the only data/figures that matters to Joe Journo.

    My favourites are damned lies. They are more exciting than ordinary lies but not so bad that they warp reality into a knot like statistics.


  • #30
    the culture of deference
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,145 ✭✭✭the culture of deference


    try the birthday paradox

    http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-shared-birthday.html

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem


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  • #31
    jimgoose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,209 ✭✭✭✭jimgoose


    I've been saying it for years - statistics, like shotguns, credit-cards and strong liquor, should be kept away from children, imbeciles, and people who spend weeks arguing back-and-forth with each other on epic five-hundred-page threads. :pac:


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