Polar Melt - 'This is really happening'.

slowburner · 13-05-2014 10:03am #1

Some alarming news concerning the effects of global warming posted in the New York Times.

A large section of the mighty West Antarctica ice sheet has begun falling apart and its continued melting now appears to be unstoppable, two groups of scientists reported on Monday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-of-parts-of-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html?hp&_r=1

mickdw · 13-05-2014 10:10am

slowburner wrote: »

Some alarming news concerning the effects of global warming posted in the New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-of-parts-of-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html?hp&_r=1

So we are back to global warming now are we?
It was climate change there for a while when things didn't quite match all the predictions of doom re warming.
Why it is not assumed to be a natural cycle that is causing melting of ice caps? Ice age came and went and there was not a automobile or polluting industry in sight.

Thargor · 13-05-2014 10:30am

mickdw wrote: »

So we are back to global warming now are we?
It was climate change there for a while when things didn't quite match all the predictions of doom re warming.
Why it is not assumed to be a natural cycle that is causing melting of ice caps? Ice age came and went and there was not a automobile or polluting industry in sight.

Because there is >98% scientific consensus that humans are causing the current abnormal warming through the massive release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses? But of course you know better than 98% of the scientists on the planet and pretty much 100% of climate scientists.

Oh wait, they're all lying so they'll get more grant money, or maybe they just hate freedom.

slowburner · 13-05-2014 10:53am

Keep it civil folks.
It's an emotive issue and temperatures could rise :rolleyes: let's keep the debate on the subject and not on the people.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock · 13-05-2014 10:55am

mickdw wrote: »

So we are back to global warming now are we?
It was climate change there for a while when things didn't quite match all the predictions of doom re warming.
Why it is not assumed to be a natural cycle that is causing melting of ice caps? Ice age came and went and there was not a automobile or polluting industry in sight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJFyWBLeM7Q

Turtwig · 15-05-2014 1:41am

mickdw wrote: »

So we are back to global warming now are we?
It was climate change there for a while when things didn't quite match all the predictions of doom re warming.
Why it is not assumed to be a natural cycle that is causing melting of ice caps? Ice age came and went and there was not a automobile or polluting industry in sight.

It was always Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW). Though now it appears to be changing to Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) because some of the warming will catastrophic to certain regions.

It's not assumed to be a natural cycle because even generous allowances for natural variation doesn't exactly explain what's been observed. Nights are warming faster than days. That's a GHG signature warming. What are the most significant GHGs in the atmosphere right now? H20 and CO2 (even though Methane is more potent). Of which Humans are primary emissions source. Not responsible for the bulk of C02 in the atmosphere but they are responsible for majority going into the atmosphere today. Which is ultimately a factor in changing the climate. As C02 influences climates by a logarithmic relationship. To crudely approximate every time CO2's concentration halves or doubles the forcing from CO2 in the atmosphere is altered. This means that size of the change from 20ppm to 40ppm is similar to 400ppm to 800ppm or 1000 ppm to 2000ppm.

Ice Ages came and went for numerous reasons. These are pretty well understood. Younger Sun, Orbital tilt and precession, carbon cycles, Deep Impacts, etc. all played a role in past climate. The thing is, nobody can really point out a feasible natural explanation for the current climate. There has to be an anthropogenic element to it .0

mickdw · 15-05-2014 12:05pm

Could you explain the logarithmic relationship as detailed? It's not quite clear to me. I am aware of the mathematics of logarithmic scales etc so you can leave out that bit.

Also if I was to agree that it's not a natural cycle and is infact caused by man, why is it being seen as catastrophic? If the same effects could clearly be attributed to some natural occurrence, we would get on with it and over many many generations adjust to what we are presented with.

Turtwig wrote: »

It was always Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW). Though now it appears to be changing to Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) because some of the warming will catastrophic to certain regions.

It's not assumed to be a natural cycle because even generous allowances for natural variation doesn't exactly explain what's been observed. Nights are warming faster than days. That's a GHG signature warming. What are the most significant GHGs in the atmosphere right now? H20 and CO2 (even though Methane is more potent). Of which Humans are primary emissions source. Not responsible for the bulk of C02 in the atmosphere but they are responsible for majority going into the atmosphere today. Which is ultimately a factor in changing the climate. As C02 influences climates by a logarithmic relationship. To crudely approximate every time CO2's concentration halves or doubles the forcing from CO2 in the atmosphere is altered. This means that size of the change from 20ppm to 40ppm is similar to 400ppm to 800ppm or 1000 ppm to 2000ppm.

Ice Ages came and went for numerous reasons. These are pretty well understood. Younger Sun, Orbital tilt and precession, carbon cycles, Deep Impacts, etc. all played a role in past climate. The thing is, nobody can really point out a feasible natural explanation for the current climate. There has to be an anthropogenic element to it .0

Polar Melt - 'This is really happening'.

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