We're in Early Days of Celtic Tiger 2 ?

Pinch Flat · 02-05-2014 10:09AM

yawhat! wrote: »

Every county bar Dublin, Cork and Galway is fecked really. Kilkenny and Waterford is really bad!

I'm from Waterford and go down there the odd time, the centre of the town in the evening is like the set of 28 Days Later...deserted.....

K.Flyer · 02-05-2014 10:09AM

I think most of the "we are coming out of recession" pundits are basing their comments on the Dublin property market's micro boom. When you see 2 and 3 Bed apartments in Dublin 2 to let for 4, 500.00 euro /mth, and getting it!!, its easy to see how they can come to this conclusion.

GLaDOS · 02-05-2014 10:18AM

Have we turned a corner?

Fox_In_Socks · 02-05-2014 10:27AM

ScienceNerd wrote: »

Have we turned a corner?

I think at this stage we are in an Escher painting.

Daith · 02-05-2014 10:27AM

ScienceNerd wrote: »

Have we turned a corner?

This is Ireland. Are property prices going up? Then yes we have.

donegal__road · 02-05-2014 10:27AM

the aftermath of the next budget will quickly and efficiently extinguish any notion of CT2.

4Dlolz · 02-05-2014 11:01AM

Of course we'll get another boom and subsequent bust.

The western world has done so for many a year - 1920's, 1930's, 1950's, 1980's, 2000's....and there is no evidence to suggest otherwise. A "depression" is a dirty word nowadays so economists and politicians have chosen a much softer-sounding "recession". Since then, we've had many a recession but thankfully not a single depression. :rolleyes:

Before the Industrial Revolution, Karl Marx noted that there were no major economic dips and, by default, assumed that this boom/bust conundrum had some inherent flawed feature built within the capitalist system - nothing could be further from the truth. Governments think the economy is something that must be tamed, mastered and controlled. If we get inflation - people have too much money to spend and must be taxed more they say. If we get a recession, government must step in and spend, spend, spend - they say.

It's nonsensical drivel.

The problem is the central bank. There were no booms/busts before the existence of central banks and there will be no booms/busts after the abolishment of central banks.

Simple as that.

In other words, your government is causing these booms and busts.

Davarus Walrus · 02-05-2014 11:15AM

Even the thought that we might be seeing an improvement in the economy is anathema to some people. Especially as it didn't involve revolution, blood sacrifice, riots on the street, burning the bondholder, leaving the Euro or defaulting on our debts.

Caliden · 02-05-2014 11:37AM

Recession/Depression is like a wave, it has it's highs and lows and people keep forgetting when the last one happened.

We're doomed to repeat ourselves as our Governments/Banks never learn from their mistakes. (probably because none of them ever get convicted :pac: )

con___manx1 · 02-05-2014 12:20PM

carlmango11 wrote: »

What's good for Dublin is good for the rest of the country. It's not like there's a fixed amount of money which, if going to Dublin means it's not going elsewhere. If Dublin's economy is pumping it will work its way all over the country.

i agree but it will happen at a much slower pace.it is very encouraging at the momnet

upstairs for coffee · 02-05-2014 12:21PM

Funny how talk of Celtic Tiger comes about in the run up to elections

donutheadhomer · 02-05-2014 12:22PM

Think its going to be called the Continuity Celtic Tiger

4Dlolz · 02-05-2014 12:44PM

I have to chuckle when I hear the argument regarding the "failure of capitalism".

On what planet can we assume the existence of a capitalist system when one of the most important pillars of an economy - the means of exchange i.e - money, is a government monopoly quasi-private controlled area? It wasn't too long ago that this kind of central planning was referred to, quite rightly, as "Socialism". But now it's regarded as "progressive" and "modern". We live and learn. :rolleyes:

You will inevitably see another boom and bust for all eternity so long as your government controls your money supply.

shruikan2553 · 02-05-2014 12:46PM

Great Im going to drop out of college, become a bricklayer and get a mortgage can't afford long term. Then when I can't afford it I'll play dumb. But that won't happen, within the year I'll be selling it for double!

Can someone let me know if I'm doing this right? I was late to the last party.

Magenta · 02-05-2014 01:08PM

Rabbo wrote: »

It'd make a great movie.
Celtic Tiger 2: Ireland bites back

Buy Hard 2: Buy Harder

SoapMcTavish · 02-05-2014 02:00PM

Just remember to pay your TV license ...... or end up in the clink ..

Ok to lose billions arsing around in banking though ....

Frank Lee Midere · 02-05-2014 03:44PM

4Dlolz wrote: »

The problem is the central bank. There were no booms/busts before the existence of central banks and there will be no booms/busts after the abolishment of central banks.

Yeah, thats not right.

carlmango11 · 02-05-2014 03:54PM

K.Flyer wrote: »

I think most of the "we are coming out of recession" pundits are basing their comments on the Dublin property market's micro boom. When you see 2 and 3 Bed apartments in Dublin 2 to let for 4, 500.00 euro /mth, and getting it!!, its easy to see how they can come to this conclusion.

Or maybe it's also the:

Consistent decreases in unemployment
Rising consumer sentiment
Increasing revenue intakes

kippy · 02-05-2014 03:59PM

carlmango11 wrote: »

Or maybe it's also the:
Consistent decreases in unemployment

Rising consumer sentiment

Increasing revenue intakes

The problem is, anyone who is familiar with those three points knows that:
Consistent decreases in unemployment are more to do with mass emmigration, increases in training places and of course the myriad of internship options available. None of these are actually anything do do with increases in gainful employment.

Rising consumer sentiment - what exactly does that mean? Generally people dont have much money and are fearful of what is around the next corner.

Increasing revenue intakes? Really??? You do realise that has more to do with increased taxation/levies and charges - basicilly hitting the same people for more money.

Ray Palmer · 02-05-2014 04:28PM

kippy wrote: »

The problem is, anyone who is familiar with those three points knows that:
Consistent decreases in unemployment are more to do with mass emmigration, increases in training places and of course the myriad of internship options available. None of these are actually anything do do with increases in gainful employment.

Rising consumer sentiment - what exactly does that mean? Generally people dont have much money and are fearful of what is around the next corner.

Increasing revenue intakes? Really??? You do realise that has more to do with increased taxation/levies and charges - basicilly hitting the same people for more money.

I'll leave employment out as it is so hard to figure out the real figures of actual employment.

Rise in consumer sentiment is a real thing with increased retail sales. They also do surveys to check this which are done in things like the euro barometer. People saying they will buy things and aren't worried is quantifiable and real. It has risen

Increase revenue take on the predictions based on the tax intakes. They are getting more tax from more people than expected. That is increased revenue not increased because they tax more.

Maybe look into something before you start talking about stuff you don't understand.

Santa Cruz · 02-05-2014 04:40PM

Get on the property ladder NOWWWWWWWWWWWWW before it's too late

Frank Lee Midere · 02-05-2014 08:02PM

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I'll leave employment out as it is so hard to figure out the real figures of actual employment.

Rise in consumer sentiment is a real thing with increased retail sales. They also do surveys to check this which are done in things like the euro barometer. People saying they will buy things and aren't worried is quantifiable and real. It has risen

Increase revenue take on the predictions based on the tax intakes. They are getting more tax from more people than expected. That is increased revenue not increased because they tax more.

Maybe look into something before you start talking about stuff you don't understand.

The question at hand is whether we are in Bubble 2.0, smaller shorter but just as devastating. In a bubble all of these indicators would be up.

The very fact that consumer sentiment increases with perceived housing wealth is itself worrying. Since taxes, including property and water charges should be eating into people's disposable this extra spend is probably more debt.

kippy · 02-05-2014 10:56PM

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I'll leave employment out as it is so hard to figure out the real figures of actual employment.

Rise in consumer sentiment is a real thing with increased retail sales. They also do surveys to check this which are done in things like the euro barometer. People saying they will buy things and aren't worried is quantifiable and real. It has risen

Increase revenue take on the predictions based on the tax intakes. They are getting more tax from more people than expected. That is increased revenue not increased because they tax more.

Maybe look into something before you start talking about stuff you don't understand.

Two points.
The employment situation is a key indicator of the health of an economy.
The three areas that the government use to fudge the figures are immigration:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/ireland-has-highest-net-emigration-level-in-europe-1.1601685
Traning places:
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/government-announces-new-training-places-578287.html (if you have a look around you'll see that the number of training positions across all sectors of third level and adult education has increased dramatically in the past number of years, not necessarily a bad thing but it means more people don't actually show up on the live register than may have had a few years ago)
Finally schemes like, job bridge, community employment and similair are used to keep people of the register also.
All that being said there are probably close to 30K people working this year that weren't last year.

I'll give you the point that retail sales in some areas are up year on year however I dont in any way believe this is in relation to increased consumer confidence. In fact the reasons increases in retail sales year on year so be obvious to anyone who reads beyond the headlines that various people want you to believe.
This type of thing is why retails sales are up across the board:
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/food-prices-rising-30-times-faster-than-ordinary-inflation-29783361.html
People spending more money shopping because they HAVE to, not because they have more disposable income.
This is NOT a good thing by the way.

The state are taking in more than they were last year in taxes because of the above issue, and also because of the few bits and pieces of tax that it introduced in the past budget. Granted there probably are a few more (maybe 30K people) paying income tax this year that weren't last year so that may be how they are beating their own estimates (estimate low enough and you'll always beat it)

Make no mistake however, for the past few weeks and in the run up to these elections you will see plenty of guff about how the country has the corner turned and figures like those you believe hightlight while casting away the more realistic and negative side of things such as:
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/central-bank-report-criticises-credit-unions-1.1782114
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/mortgage-arrears-crisis-is-coming-to-a-head-260908.html
http://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/debt-profile/ (government debt of 180Billion)
We still have a budget deficit of close to 7 billion (last time I checked, tbf this may reduce this year due to various deals on portions of loans we've gotten in the past number of years)

We're not even close to being out of any woods yet and not a notion of a tiger of any description.

As you can see I havent a clue about what I am talking about......

AlwaysAnyTime · 02-05-2014 11:21PM

kippy wrote: »

Two points.
The employment situation is a key indicator of the health of an economy.
The three areas that the government use to fudge the figures are immigration:

Traning places:
(if you have a look around you'll see that the number of training positions across all sectors of third level and adult education has increased dramatically in the past number of years, not necessarily a bad thing but it means more people don't actually show up on the live register than may have had a few years ago)
Finally schemes like, job bridge, community employment and similair are used to keep people of the register also.
All that being said there are probably close to 30K people working this year that weren't last year.

I'll give you the point that retail sales in some areas are up year on year however I dont in any way believe this is in relation to increased consumer confidence. In fact the reasons increases in retail sales year on year so be obvious to anyone who reads beyond the headlines that various people want you to believe.
This type of thing is why retails sales are up across the board:
People spending more money shopping because they HAVE to, not because they have more disposable income.
This is NOT a good thing by the way.

The state are taking in more than they were last year in taxes because of the above issue, and also because of the few bits and pieces of tax that it introduced in the past budget. Granted there probably are a few more (maybe 30K people) paying income tax this year that weren't last year so that may be how they are beating their own estimates (estimate low enough and you'll always beat it)

Make no mistake however, for the past few weeks and in the run up to these elections you will see plenty of guff about how the country has the corner turned and figures like those you believe hightlight while casting away the more realistic and negative side of things such as:
(government debt of 180Billion)
We still have a budget deficit of close to 7 billion (last time I checked, tbf this may reduce this year due to various deals on portions of loans we've gotten in the past number of years)

We're not even close to being out of any woods yet and not a notion of a tiger of any description.

As you can see I havent a clue about what I am talking about......

The highlighted point is the most important, (and not talked about enough) in my opinion. Wtf chance do we EVER have of paying back €180 billion? We can't even afford to pay the yearly interest on that sum of money, never mind the capital. What happens long-term, 20-30 years from now?

There's only 2 options, say right we're not paying that back. OR, pile more austerity on the nation for the next 20 years. These recent government introductions (USC, property tax, water charges) will never decrease, only increase. Rest assured the people at the top and bottom of society won't be affected, they will both suck the life out of the middle class, middle income tax-paying worker.

Great country to live in if you are a multi-generational social welfare lifetimer, with free healthcare (medical card) for the whole family, discounted accommodation (rent allowance), €188/week jobseekers allowance, increases for qualified child, fuel allowance, etc.

Likewise if you are a corrupt banker/politician/developer who destroys the country, you can walk away free from punishment with pensions worth literally millions of euro.

But if you are a regular working couple (with children), who can't pay the mortgage on single income- forcing both parents to work and pay extortionate creche/childcare fees. And now somehow be expected to pay mortgage, property tax, water charges, bord gais, esb, phone, broadcasting charge, PAYE, PRSI, USC.

These are the people keeping this country going. People in private sector jobs, earning average wages €30k-€40k/year. These people are the easiest targets, and generally suffer most from all these new taxes and charges. But these are the people who can emigrate the easiest, they usually have college degrees, transferable skills, and are the most mobile.

And now the greedy unions want their paycuts reversed, that money will come from where? You guessed it, those in category of previous paragraph.

Son Of A Vidic · 02-05-2014 11:48PM

carlmango11 wrote: »

Or maybe it's also the:
Consistent decreases in unemployment

Rising consumer sentiment

Increasing revenue intakes

Apart from the revenue take, the rest reads like one of those works of fiction you find on a election leaflet.

donegal__road · 03-05-2014 12:39PM

Santa Cruz wrote: »

Get on the property ladder NOWWWWWWWWWWWWW before it's too late

it would be a good time to buy, as long as its not Dublin..

tomwaterford · 03-05-2014 09:54PM

AlwaysAnyTime wrote: »

The highlighted point is the most important, (and not talked about enough) in my opinion. Wtf chance do we EVER have of paying back €180 billion? We can't even afford to pay the yearly interest on that sum of money, never mind the capital. What happens long-term, 20-30 years from now?

There's only 2 options, say right we're not paying that back. OR, pile more austerity on the nation for the next 20 years. These recent government introductions (USC, property tax, water charges) will never decrease, only increase. Rest assured the people at the top and bottom of society won't be affected, they will both suck the life out of the middle class, middle income tax-paying worker.

Great country to live in if you are a multi-generational social welfare lifetimer, with free healthcare (medical card) for the whole family, discounted accommodation (rent allowance), €188/week jobseekers allowance, increases for qualified child, fuel allowance, etc.

Likewise if you are a corrupt banker/politician/developer who destroys the country, you can walk away free from punishment with pensions worth literally millions of euro.

But if you are a regular working couple (with children), who can't pay the mortgage on single income- forcing both parents to work and pay extortionate creche/childcare fees. And now somehow be expected to pay mortgage, property tax, water charges, bord gais, esb, phone, broadcasting charge, PAYE, PRSI, USC.

These are the people keeping this country going. People in private sector jobs, earning average wages €30k-€40k/year. These people are the easiest targets, and generally suffer most from all these new taxes and charges. But these are the people who can emigrate the easiest, they usually have college degrees, transferable skills, and are the most mobile.

And now the greedy unions want their paycuts reversed, that money will come from where? You guessed it, those in category of previous paragraph.

its because no one in all reality expects it to be paid back...I can see no possible circumstances that Ireland can pay that back...unless we can convert rain into money

mike65 · 09-05-2014 01:38PM

Their is an ad campaign running on the radio for this crowd!

http://www.towerbudapest.com/meetings?utm_source=atiranyitas&utm_medium=landlordsinbudapest&utm_campaign=leaflet

So yes the worst of Celtic Tiger (post 2000) is rearing its ugly head again.

We're in Early Days of Celtic Tiger 2 ?

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