Is the suckler industry doomed?

Crossakiel · 07-04-2014 02:20PM #1

You have to wonder what the future for beef and suckler farming will be with the latest changes to carcass weights http://www.agriland.ie/news/380kg-carcass-limit-end-continental-sucklers-icsa/

bogman_bass · 07-04-2014 03:46PM

wouldn't say suckling is doomed but the big simmentals and charolais are in serious trouble

Round Bale · 07-04-2014 04:04PM

bogman_bass wrote: »

wouldn't say suckling is doomed but the big simmentals and charolais are in serious trouble

Weanling of choice at marts both bull and heifer last fall, and currently is the charolais!
Nice red lims, of equal quality, way behind the charolais.
Figure that??

reilig · 07-04-2014 04:35PM

Quality cattle will never be doomed. It's the poor quality LIM, CH, SIM, AA etc that are doomed - those cattle that are not finished until over 30 months.

onyerbikepat · 07-04-2014 04:44PM

The factories saying they only want Cattle of a certain grade / fat cover is a bit like the beef farmers telling the dairy guys they only want continental cross calves, not pure Holsteins.
Stand around a mart ring in June & July and see what the factory agents want.

bbam · 07-04-2014 04:52PM

Why are they setting such target weights on the carcass ?
So 99% of advice given out over the last ten years is now wrong ?
Or is this a marketing ploy where they sit back and when the majority are producing a specific animal they change the goal posts which incidentally results in suppliers being penalised because they are set up for the old targets.. Essentially the same scenario as the bull beef lads who are caught..

Its not as if customers in supermarkets are looking at meat on the shelves and giving the feedback "that they want it cut from smaller carcasses" or "we don't want bull beef meat any more".. Most of these connoisseur consumers were happy out eating horse until it was shown to them what was going on !!

Still, the important thing is Coveney doesn't think there is a crisis in the beef industry and as usual he can sit back on his ass and continue to do nothing :rolleyes:

Genghis Cant · 07-04-2014 05:45PM

Is the biggest single buyer of Irish beef not McDonalds? If so what has carcass size got to do with it if its goin down this route?
The factories will play what ever card they can to suppress beef prices. They always have and always will.

bbam · 07-04-2014 06:02PM

That's what I presume is going on.
Will be interesting to see how it develops.

Greengrass1 · 07-04-2014 07:45PM

How come factories can get away with setting prices what ever way they want?
Why can't they pay on a world price like the milk processors?
Would that not be fairer?

conor t · 07-04-2014 08:03PM

Greengrass1 wrote: »

How come factories can get away with setting prices what ever way they want?
Why can't they pay on a world price like the milk processors?
Would that not be fairer?

Most prices around the world are lower then ours already.if we were getting lower prices but getting forward contracts it wud probably be better being able to budget everything accurately

Farmer · 07-04-2014 10:53PM

Does anyone know how much of the average value of a 380-400 kg animal these target supermarket "2 strip loins on a tray for a tenner" steaks account for. It seems that the factories are using them as an excuse to beat down the price on heavier cattle.

blue5000 · 07-04-2014 11:22PM

Farmer wrote: »

Does anyone know how much of the average value of a 380-400 kg animal these target supermarket "2 strip loins on a tray for a tenner" steaks account for. It seems that the factories are using them as an excuse to beat down the price on heavier cattle.

Maybe butcherboy will tell us, lets say there is 40 of these steaks on a side of beef at 5 quid each that's 400 sterling. How much does that leave on a 400kg carcase, say the steaks weigh 350 grams each, 80 x .35 = 28kg. Then there's fillet at 15 - £20 a kg, lets say 14 kg of that =£280. There's flat iron steak now too off the forequarter.

So we've taken 32 kg of prime beef off 400kg and got, by my rough calculations, 680 sterling off some uk supermarket. I'm sure there is a few more prime cuts to be got before the mince goes to mcdonalds.

Why can't they cut big steaks in half so that they fit on a supermarket plastic tray?

Genghis Cant · 07-04-2014 11:37PM

blue5000 wrote: »

Why can't they cut big steaks in half so that they fit on a supermarket plastic tray?

Now yer talkin. 500kgs dead weight is the way forward:D

blue5000 · 07-04-2014 11:48PM

Crossakiel wrote: »

You have to wonder what the future for beef and suckler farming will be with the latest changes to carcass weights http://www.agriland.ie/news/380kg-carcass-limit-end-continental-sucklers-icsa/

Just had a read there, and it seems to say continental sucklers are doomed, not native breeds.

bbam · 08-04-2014 07:18AM

Bad news for lads after spending the last ten years building up continental suckler herds.

Muckit · 08-04-2014 08:08AM

A lot of this could be 'spin.' All aimed to promote panic and farmer vulnerability.

'Keep them scared and we can quote them what we like.'

Only true indicator is the sales ring.

bbam · 08-04-2014 08:37AM

Muckit wrote: »

A lot of this could be 'spin.' All aimed to promote panic and farmer vulnerability.

'Keep them scared and we can quote them what we like.'

Only true indicator is the sales ring.

Yes the only true indicator is the sales ring... but where does that allow for a fella to plan his business, its a bit late finding out when they are in the ring that the market doesn't want animals you've brought on for maybe 16 months.

I know lads ( as most do) who have begged and borrowed to build up continental herds, some without SFP to prop them up.. Its been a hard faught build for them. I feel sorry for them if at a whim the processors can wipe out their hard work.

09-04-2014 11:03AM

Killed the first of last years bulls last week. They're our own sucklers. They were born last Jan so they're barely 15 months. Factory (ABP) said under 16 mths and 420kg would get on the grid and get the QA bonus. Base of €3.85, €3.65 if off grid. Had one R3 (out of Limo/Fr) the rest were U's. All had adequate fat cover (more than 2=) which we were happy with. They averaged a bit more than 400kg dead and the price was between €3.97 and €4.21 which brought them into €1,600+. If they hadn't made the grid if would have been €1,460.

Every other year would bring them to average 440kg carcase at 16-17 mths. Last year they were getting up to €4.85 at that weight I think they averaged €1,800. We're still down €200 on last year but it's not as bad as lads are making out.

dh1985 · 09-04-2014 12:42PM

6600 wrote: »

Killed the first of last years bulls last week. They're our own sucklers. They were born last Jan so they're barely 15 months. Factory (ABP) said under 16 mths and 420kg would get on the grid and get the QA bonus. Base of €3.85, €3.65 if off grid. Had one R3 (out of Limo/Fr) the rest were U's. All had adequate fat cover (more than 2=) which we were happy with. They averaged a bit more than 400kg dead and the price was between €3.97 and €4.21 which brought them into €1,600+. If they hadn't made the grid if would have been €1,460.

Every other year would bring them to average 440kg carcase at 16-17 mths. Last year they were getting up to €4.85 at that weight I think they averaged €1,800. We're still down €200 on last year but it's not as bad as lads are making out.

You hardly have an idea of what those bulls weighed last october/november. Was most weighed gain before been housed?

09-04-2014 01:10PM

They were weighed mid Oct if I remember. Think they averaged 375 thereabouts. Tops maybe 400kg. The ones were killed weighed 680kg last weekend. I thought they weren't finished enough tbh but am used to bringing them to heavier weights.

Those animals had great potential to go on to bigger weights. Seems an awful waste to be killing them early but the way they are pricing now they would want to be killing out over 450kg before you'd be making more. And that's not taking into account the cost of getting them to the extra weight. Would have taken another month of feeding at least.

Tbh after this year I can see the factories wanting bigger cattle again. They've killed I think 60,000 extra so far this year if you look at the kill statistics. Also a huge proportion of cattle being killed are terrible quality O and P's.

http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/farmingsectors/beef/beeffactorypricesweeklyreports/2014/numbersofsteerscowsheifersandyoungbulls/

Also the factories have lost major contracts which they're keeping very quiet over. Hopefully this and the glut of crappy cattle is temporary.

moy83 · 09-04-2014 01:17PM

Does Larry Goodman or any of his people ever give interviews about whats going on with them or where they think things are heading ?
Even if it wasn't good news it would be nice to hear it straight from the horses mouth . Maybe George Lee might hound him for an hour long session of questions ......

moy83 · 09-04-2014 01:21PM

6600 wrote: »

They were weighed mid Oct if I remember. Think they averaged 375 thereabouts. Tops maybe 400kg. The ones were killed weighed 680kg last weekend. I thought they weren't finished enough tbh but am used to bringing them to heavier weights.

Those animals had great potential to go on to bigger weights. Seems an awful waste to be killing them early but the way they are pricing now they would want to be killing out over 450kg before you'd be making more. And that's not taking into account the cost of getting them to the extra weight. Would have taken another month of feeding at least.

Tbh after this year I can see the factories wanting bigger cattle again. They've killed I think 60,000 extra so far this year if you look at the kill statistics. Also a huge proportion of cattle being killed are terrible quality O and P's.

http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/farmingsectors/beef/beeffactorypricesweeklyreports/2014/numbersofsteerscowsheifersandyoungbulls/

Also the factories have lost major contracts which they're keeping very quiet over. Hopefully this and the glut of crappy cattle is temporary.

What your plan next , would you usually have finished these off grass over the next month or so ? Will you have extra grass now or just a smaller meal bill ? And lastly if you are finishing them a bit earlier will you buy in a few bull weanlins to keep the same amount of beef going out the gate ?

09-04-2014 01:39PM

moy83 wrote: »

What your plan next , would you usually have finished these off grass over the next month or so ? Will you have extra grass now or just a smaller meal bill ? And lastly if you are finishing them a bit earlier will you buy in a few bull weanlins to keep the same amount of beef going out the gate ?

Grass?? Noooo! Once they go in to the shed the end of October they only come out to go up the ramp. Last year the first cattle were killed from the beginning of May to the end of June. The bad quality silage and grain really took ages to finish them. All our grassland goes for the sucklers and calves. We don't have enough land to keep them a second year.
The calves only start getting a bit of meal when weaning and don't really be pushed until Christmas. Getting fresh grass every day is enough for the calves to get to good weaning weight. Good silage 75DMD is important in getting good gains and fat cover. If we ever run out of silage they are harder finished as intakes seem to drop.

Crossakiel · 09-04-2014 02:21PM

All the main farming organisations North and South are in Brussels complaining about the Meat industry http://www.agriland.ie/news/meat-factories-deny-subverting-free-trade/

09-04-2014 02:31PM

That Agriland is a great development IMO. We need something to balance the comic.

Farmer Pudsey · 09-04-2014 02:36PM

blue5000 wrote: »

Maybe butcherboy will tell us, lets say there is 40 of these steaks on a side of beef at 5 quid each that's 400 sterling. How much does that leave on a 400kg carcase, say the steaks weigh 350 grams each, 80 x .35 = 28kg. Then there's fillet at 15 - £20 a kg, lets say 14 kg of that =£280. There's flat iron steak now too off the forequarter.

So we've taken 32 kg of prime beef off 400kg and got, by my rough calculations, 680 sterling off some uk supermarket. I'm sure there is a few more prime cuts to be got before the mince goes to mcdonalds.

Why can't they cut big steaks in half so that they fit on a supermarket plastic tray?

I think there is about 20 striploins in a side of beef,sirloin sells well and the fillet can be tough enough to move how often do you see it on a tray in a supermarket or see some one asking for it. THe issue is not to get them to fit on tray( even though presentation is important) it to keep them in the 7-9 euro/tray. If you saw a tray with a striploin cot in two, or a bit striploin, or two nices sized ont all priced around the 7-9 euro mark which would you buy.

By the way I believe the Supermarkets work on about a 30% margin.

6600 wrote: »

Killed the first of last years bulls last week. They're our own sucklers. They were born last Jan so they're barely 15 months. Factory (ABP) said under 16 mths and 420kg would get on the grid and get the QA bonus. Base of €3.85, €3.65 if off grid. Had one R3 (out of Limo/Fr) the rest were U's. All had adequate fat cover (more than 2=) which we were happy with. They averaged a bit more than 400kg dead and the price was between €3.97 and €4.21 which brought them into €1,600+. If they hadn't made the grid if would have been €1,460.

Every other year would bring them to average 440kg carcase at 16-17 mths. Last year they were getting up to €4.85 at that weight I think they averaged €1,800. We're still down €200 on last year but it's not as bad as lads are making out.

What would they have made in the mart last October/early Nov. Now do the sums on finishing costs, I say little enough of a margin. Finishers that are really getting squeezed are the lads that bought bullocks, heifers and older bulls. I expect that it is the ones that were above 400 that you are kiling now Would they have made 1100euro or a tad with it. I know the export trade was deadish.

09-04-2014 03:15PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

What would they have made in the mart last October/early Nov. Now do the sums on finishing costs, I say little enough of a margin. Finishers that are really getting squeezed are the lads that bought bullocks, heifers and older bulls. I expect that it is the ones that were above 400 that you are kiling now Would they have made 1100euro or a tad with it. I know the export trade was deadish.

Anytime we ever sold weanlings we were disappointed.

Going on the trade last year I'd say they would have made €800 - €1,000. Maybe the best would make €1100 but its the average thats important. They are mostly Blonde with Aubrac and Limo's starting to come in. Wouldn't look showy at that age just growthy and leggy. I go to a good few sales and a lot of weanlings make €600.

We fatten everything that leaves the farm and buy nothing in. Going on our costs for the last number years it costs €800 per cow to fatten everything. Fixed costs and overheads are not included. Last year our bulls made double what they would have made as weanlings. I would view the price this year as rock bottom and be happy enough that we still have a margin at that.

heavysteer · 09-04-2014 06:58PM

Genghis Cant wrote: »

Now yer talkin. 500kgs dead weight is the way forward:D

Factories can sell these type of cattle too, not all markets are the same spec. If all cattle were produced under 380 kgs that would constitute a glut of cattle of that spec and then they would want cattle at some other spec. Changeable as the weather, Not that long ago when horse was acceptable in what they sold, also in the past over 380 kgs was a desired spec for selling beef on the continent. In addition some factories want cattle under thirty months and some others don't becuase they can pay less for the over thirty months and sell it just the same.

When the number of cattle get scarcer (not sure when this will be but a glut cant last forever) and factories get stuck for stock, the emphasis on 'in spec' will go out the window. Not saying we'll see the dizzy heights of june/july 2013 again soon, but even a modest scarcity of supply should cause prices to rise, for example if the supply of cattle dips to below 27,000 head per week or better again less than 25,000, prices will very likely rise as factories will have compete for stock. Its called supplied and demand! Unfortunately my crystal ball can't tell me when this will happen!
And my cattle might get very heavy while I'm waiting!!

onyerbikepat · 09-04-2014 09:11PM

That's it a nutshell. Too many cattle so factories can afford to be fussy.

Farrell · 09-04-2014 10:15PM

6600 wrote: »

Anytime we ever sold weanlings we were disappointed.

Going on the trade last year I'd say they would have made €800 - €1,000. Maybe the best would make €1100 but its the average thats important. They are mostly Blonde with Aubrac and Limo's starting to come in. Wouldn't look showy at that age just growthy and leggy. I go to a good few sales and a lot of weanlings make €600.

We fatten everything that leaves the farm and buy nothing in. Going on our costs for the last number years it costs €800 per cow to fatten everything. Fixed costs and overheads are not included. Last year our bulls made double what they would have made as weanlings. I would view the price this year as rock bottom and be happy enough that we still have a margin at that.

It is disappointing when you've a good 350kg - 400kg weanling making €800 - €1100 (rare), & you see a similar quality 250kg make €850 in October.
What sort of diet were they on during shedding?

09-04-2014 11:57PM

We weaned the bulls in early August due to lack of grass. Left cows in and had the calves coming in at night. Calves start eating some meal then for the few weeks thats going on and at grass after that when the grass get scarce. Only really start eating meal again in the shed which was around the start of Nov this year. Start them on 20-25kg silage, 0.5kg straw and maybe 2 kg crimped wheat and a mix of soya/pulp to balance and minerals and vistacell (yeast which keeps the stomach right). December then they'd be up to 6kg total meal and probably the end of January they were getting what they'd eat in a day - 10ish kg and the silage is down to probably 10kg/day.

The pit is gone so feeding them wraps from surplus grass and that's getting scarce. The crimp is finished now too so we're feeding propcorn treated barley which is good stuff too but also getting scarce. The cows ate a good bit of meal this spring as they were in for so long after calving which wasn't planned.

Is the suckler industry doomed?

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