Can the book be beaten ...long term?

del roy · 23-02-2014 09:12PM

Baile Anuai 2pts e/w 14/1 started last and it got worst from there.

Bank +167.6pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +67.6pts

del roy · 23-02-2014 09:32PM

2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1

del roy · 24-02-2014 04:26PM

Well if anyone wanted proof about backing a trainers two horse's in the one race you have just had it.
9/1 winner today and 20/1 winner from alan king during the week.

Bank +163.6pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +63.6pts

del roy · 26-02-2014 02:01PM

6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1

del roy · 27-02-2014 10:43AM

Bank +159.6pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +59.6pts

Got a call this morning from a work colleague who has been following the thread since the start €100 per point who has decided to call it a day after last nights bet saying he thinks the kid had a great (lucky) start and he is quite happy with the €5900 he has made.
Now I have said two things to him,

1. Will he stop backing horses for good, if so thats fine but if not why continue to back your own choices if you were a a regular loser,
2. Surely 59pts profit after 3 months is enough to have more confidence in the kid, my view is I will rethink the situation
if the profits disappear and I am left with my starting bank, but I think stopping now when it has not cost me a penny is silly.

Any thoughts?

BumperD · 27-02-2014 10:55AM

Given that he has been just lucky to date (as you pointed out), your mate should cash in & buy himself a holiday of a lifetime.

Your other buddy's luck will run out.

Dun laoire · 27-02-2014 11:08AM

Fair fuks to a fella able to gamble that kind of money. Anyway, withdraw 5k and mess about with the 900 using smaller stakes. Simple

nuckeythompson · 27-02-2014 11:28AM

Credit where credit is due, alot of people (most ) on here are waiting for him to fail. Most here are compulsive gamblers here but not all.
He has so far proven his point and I can assure you the begrudgers here have no where near done as well as he has.

Fair play to him and best of luck too

UrbanSea · 27-02-2014 11:29AM

BumperD wrote: »

Given that he has been just lucky to date (as you pointed out), your mate should cash in & buy himself a holiday of a lifetime.

Your other buddy's luck will run out.

How can you be sure he has been lucky? There is a difference in luck and knowledge. Luck will not maintain consistent profit in the long term but may in the short term. I would say sixty points profit over three months is down to more than luck, it isn't as if he had one massive winner that is covering his losses.

nuckeythompson · 27-02-2014 11:33AM

The main pont is his margin. Its profit and credit it to him

This is my point , people waiting for him to fail and if he does not fail put it down to luck.

I put it to anyone to try and do what he did and post it before a race , see who is lucky then

Winner winner chicken dinner

27-02-2014 11:36AM

UrbanSea wrote: »

How can you be sure he has been lucky? There is a difference in luck and knowledge. Luck will not maintain consistent profit in the long term but may in the short term. I would say sixty points profit over three months is down to more than luck, it isn't as if he had one massive winner that is covering his losses.

I agree. I've been following this with interest.

There's a massive difference between some people of the tens of thousands who bet regularly being up over a period of time (which you would expect in a normal distribution, and is just luck) and a single individual saying ahead of time they can beat the book and then doing it.

The odds are massively against the latter actually making it happen by dumb luck, certainly over a decent period of time like 3 months.

I have always been of the opinion that it is hard to almost impossible to really beat the book consistently based on nothing but the form book but this thread is close to changing my mind.

Colonel Sanders · 27-02-2014 11:55AM

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

His performance so far has been outstanding

Judging by the results I think its safe to say he's most likely a +EV punter. Based on that I think he'll continue to achieve +ive RoI, just not as high as has been the case so far

I'm gonna bump this post, still my opinion

del roy · 27-02-2014 12:47PM

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'm gonna bump this post, still my opinion

Yeah Colonel I am inclined to agree with you although I cannot prove how much he won over the last four years I have not heard anything from him to suggest he is spoofing, he strikes me as an honest guy.

del roy · 27-02-2014 12:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I agree. I've been following this with interest.

There's a massive difference between some people of the tens of thousands who bet regularly being up over a period of time (which you would expect in a normal distribution, and is just luck) and a single individual saying ahead of time they can beat the book and then doing it.

The odds are massively against the latter actually making it happen by dumb luck, certainly over a decent period of time like 3 months.

I have always been of the opinion that it is hard to almost impossible to really beat the book consistently based on nothing but the form book but this thread is close to changing my mind.

With the price of the horses he is picking is he not relying on luck?
I do not know and would not put up my thoughts yet however some people have aske me
Would I feel better if he had accumulated the 59pts profit with 6/4 and 2/1 shots, would that mean my opinion of him would change from me thinking he was a "pro" punter instead of just been "lucky"

del roy · 27-02-2014 12:55PM

nuckeythompson wrote: »

Credit where credit is due, alot of people (most ) on here are waiting for him to fail. Most here are compulsive gamblers here but not all.
He has so far proven his point and I can assure you the begrudgers here have no where near done as well as he has.

Fair play to him and best of luck too

Nuckey
Let me tell you and this is FACT.
When he was -18pts down some of our work mate where delighted and the usual remarks of " How much did we all lose this weekend" Lads

Maybe its an Irish thing I don't know.

del roy · 27-02-2014 12:58PM

BumperD wrote: »

Given that he has been just lucky to date (as you pointed out), your mate should cash in & buy himself a holiday of a lifetime.

Your other buddy's luck will run out.

Thats the thing Bumper, its to early to come to any conclusion.

BumperD · 27-02-2014 01:06PM

UrbanSea wrote: »

How can you be sure he has been lucky? There is a difference in luck and knowledge. Luck will not maintain consistent profit in the long term but may in the short term. I would say sixty points profit over three months is down to more than luck, it isn't as if he had one massive winner that is covering his losses.

The thing is, I cannot be sure. Neither can anyone else argue otherwise as the selections are put up with no analysis whatsoever. It was the OP who pointed to him being lucky a few pages back, and in the absence of anything other to assess his selections, I agreed with him. Wasn't having a dig though some have clearly taken it that way (not that I care in the slightest). The op asked for opinions for his buddy who managed to strike a profit (exactly to the % of quoted here). I suggested they do something meaningful with it rather than blindly follow some anonymous
selections posted on the internet with no reasoning whatsoever laid out for those selections. Someone willing to do that, to the tune of €100 a point, is a problem gambler, IMHO. I'm not going to comment further for fear of upsetting people (i realise emotions may be running high as others who are punting on this may have a similar quandary/cash in now? Or perhaps there are a few who joined in late and posting a loss (I hope not)). Fair play to those who have profited by following blindly from the outset. And credit to del roy for taking the time to put up the thread in the first place. I have enjoyed following it and will continue to do so, while maintaining a neutral stance regarding whether the selections by the anonymous punter (lets call him Jake) is a + EV punter or has just been lucky.

del roy · 27-02-2014 01:06PM

UrbanSea wrote: »

How can you be sure he has been lucky? There is a difference in luck and knowledge. Luck will not maintain consistent profit in the long term but may in the short term. I would say sixty points profit over three months is down to more than luck, it isn't as if he had one massive winner that is covering his losses.

Yes Urban as I said at the beginning of this thread I would have settled for plus 50 pts profit after six months so to arrive at +84pts just two months into the thread was great but now wondering is the only way to go....down, now

Anyway look I have let my views known I was weary of anyone saying they punt almost daily and are a good bit ahead of the book but atm he is proving me wrong,

Btw anyone care to guess how how many points he will be up come the 9th May, my guess

+44.....+48pts :cool: that will do for me.

27-02-2014 01:08PM

del roy wrote: »

With the price of the horses he is picking is he not relying on luck?
I do not know and would not put up my thoughts yet however some people have aske me
Would I feel better if he had accumulated the 59pts profit with 6/4 and 2/1 shots, would that mean my opinion of him would change from me thinking he was a "pro" punter instead of just been "lucky"

Well I'm no expert but I've always thought it's harder to find value at a short price than a long one. The logic being:

What are the chances that there's something unknown or not noticed about the Mullins/Walsh 6/4 shot?
Bookies are surely trying to limit liabilities on favourites and presumably trim them a little from their genuine price (without getting uncompetitive). that makes value less likely again

On the other hand isn't it a known fact that long shots tend to have even less 'genuine' prices? So I don't know.

I do think the first point stands though.

del roy · 27-02-2014 01:16PM

Jesus bumper

We are all big boys here and I do not think you saying I think he is lucky is slagging anyone off,

Can I give you a bit of back ground on the guy who followed him for €100, he is a work mate of the guy who gives the tip and for the last two years he said he had a pain in his bollo$ coming into the job and hearing about the winners so when I asked him why don't you just back them, he said I would if I was sure I could get all of them but he was not not in a possition to back all of them until I started this thread, infact nobody was in a position to back all them because it sounds as if he only gave the people he worked with the 10/1 plus horses as they were not gamblers

So he is betting on the last two years of "some of the results this guy had"

but hey do not drop out of the thread because you may "offend someome" I think we are all big enough to take other peoples opinion onboard.

del roy · 27-02-2014 01:19PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Well I'm no expert but I've always thought it's harder to find value at a short price than a long one. The logic being:
What are the chances that there's something unknown or not noticed about the Mullins/Walsh 6/4 shot?

Bookies are surely trying to limit liabilities on favourites and presumably trim them a little from their genuine price (without getting uncompetitive). that makes value less likely again

On the other hand isn't it a known fact that long shots tend to have even less 'genuine' prices? So I don't know.

I do think the first point stands though.

Yes Orinoco but which would make you feel more confident about a tipster

6/4...2/1 merchant
or
1pt e/w 10/1...14/1 "guesser"

27-02-2014 01:25PM

The requirement for analysis is daft.

Anyone can write florid prose about why any horse in any race is a great price and sound convincing. Analyzing his analysis would be a very subjective way of concluding whether he was lucky or not.

Like I say meeting someone who is up after a year or more of betting isn't unusual at all - of the many people who bet some are bound to be up. Saying you'll do it beforehand and delivering is very unlikely to be just dumb luck.

27-02-2014 01:31PM

del roy wrote: »

Yes Orinoco but which would make you feel more confident about a tipster

6/4...2/1 merchant
or
1pt e/w 10/1...14/1 "guesser"

Who's to say which is the guesser?

The vast, vast majority of punters backing at 6/4 are guessers. "ah Ruby's up, sure he's great, bank of mullins" etc etc.

There's nothing inherently guessy about backing at a big price, isn't pricewise based on the same philosophy?

nuckeythompson · 27-02-2014 02:09PM

del roy wrote: »

Nuckey
Let me tell you and this is FACT.
When he was -18pts down some of our work mate where delighted and the usual remarks of " How much did we all lose this weekend" Lads

Maybe its an Irish thing I don't know.

Yeah I think its an irish thing alright. Everyone on here would like to be in his position , regardless how he got there

del roy · 27-02-2014 02:42PM

Yes Orinoco I agree about saying you will win before hand as I said before, he maybe due a losing year who knows but he must have been under pressure of felt under pressure when he went -18pts down.

shamdrog63 · 27-02-2014 03:04PM

Del Roy have you done any analysis on his selections to see if there are any trends being established?

del roy · 27-02-2014 03:14PM

No Sham, I have only what's up on this board since December 13, looked at it a few times nothing jumps out at me.

del roy · 27-02-2014 03:19PM

Sorry Sham
Looks like they ran well at the course previously
Dropped to a winning mark
Jockey .....seems to not matter
Trainer form irrelevant.

del roy · 27-02-2014 07:53PM

Lingfield 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1

BQQ · 27-02-2014 08:18PM

nuckeythompson wrote: »

Credit where credit is due, alot of people (most ) on here are waiting for him to fail.

del roy wrote: »

Maybe its an Irish thing I don't know.

Actually, most of the people on this thread seem to be saying fair play to him.
They must all be foreign :rolleyes:

Can the book be beaten ...long term?

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