Is Australia unraveling?

asteroth · 23-02-2014 08:34AM #1

Lots of Irish went to Australia over the last 5 years after the financial meltdown ground Ireland's economy to a halt. Jobs were plentiful in Oz what with construction and mining. I read recently however that joblessness now in Australia is at it's highest since 2002. Ford, Toyota and GM are all scheduled to cease operation there in the next 3 years.

So, does anyone know anyone who has emigrated to Australia and can say what things are like "one the ground"? Are things slowing down, etc.?

MadsL · 23-02-2014 08:39AM

Is Australia unraveling? No, that's just Tasmania and New Zealand...they have been there a while.

AlanS181824 · 23-02-2014 08:41AM

I don't think so...

kneemos · 23-02-2014 08:47AM

Wasn't on the Six One anyway.

Canis Lupus · 23-02-2014 08:48AM

asteroth wrote: »

Lots of Irish went to Australia over the last 5 years after the financial meltdown ground Ireland's economy to a halt. Jobs were plentiful in Oz what with construction and mining. I read recently however that joblessness now in Australia is at it's highest since 2002. Ford, Toyota and GM are all scheduled to cease operation there in the next 3 years.

So, does anyone know anyone who has emigrated to Australia and can say what things are like "one the ground"? Are things slowing down, etc.?

I guess it depends on what you do. I can't say I've noticed any particular slowdown here in Brisbane but then I'm in a niche job market that isn't in building/manufacturing. People in my circle of friends are all having babies and buying houses etc.

Harold Weiss · 23-02-2014 08:48AM

There have been warnings of a financial crisis hitting Australia now for last 3-4 years but nothing for sure yet. Apparently within next 6 months starting in China but hey..people make predictions about economy all the time, sometimes they get it right, sometimes they're wrong. Nobody really knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CB2SluAUWJA

Red Crow · 23-02-2014 08:50AM

Yes, you can't overpay for non skilled and semi skilled workers over a long period. Australia's economy is based on Chinese exports and China is starting to slow down.

The One Who Knocks · 23-02-2014 08:52AM

Don't think so, talking to a mate from Australia yesterday, said it was a good day so I presume everything's still okay.

Son Of A Vidic · 23-02-2014 08:58AM

Canis Lupus wrote: »

People in my circle of friends are all having babies and buying houses etc.

Which mightn't mean anything because If you use Ireland as a barometer, baby production tends to increase during a downturn. And quite a few people here received the most amazing mortgage deals, only for their worlds and property values to implode weeks later.

asteroth · 23-02-2014 08:59AM

AlanS181824 wrote: »

I don't think so...

Well some reports suggest otherwise:

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/gfc-killed-250000-australian-jobs/story-fnkgbb3b-1226803603661

http://www.mining.com/mining-job-cuts-help-push-australian-unemployment-rate-to-ten-year-high-83521/

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/10/toyota-cease-manufacturing-cars-australia

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/07/us-australia-bhp-idUSBREA160AM20140207

Don't Chute! · 23-02-2014 09:06AM

So all the dickheads that went over there are gonna come back? Great.

keeponhurling · 23-02-2014 09:19AM

black and amber wrote: »

So all the dickheads that went over there are gonna come back? Great.

But, but, they can enthrall you with lots of stories about their travels.....

Arthur Beesley · 23-02-2014 09:22AM

keeponhurling wrote: »

But, but, they can enthrall you with lots of stories about their travels.....

They aren't dickheads, they are right dickheads.

whisky_galore · 23-02-2014 09:30AM

Anyone who thinks it can be the land of milk and honey long term is codding themselves.

Just because people are settling down and playing house means fcuk all. Anyone dependant on the building industry better have something else lined up, sounds familiar?

The Aussie · 23-02-2014 09:37AM

This talk has been about for years now, but the economy keep on going, could it just be Irish begrudgers...

Legs.Eleven · 23-02-2014 09:58AM

The Aussie wrote: »

This talk has been about for years now, but the economy keep on going, could it just be Irish begrudgers...

The Australian Bertie, Ladies and Gentlemen.

sin_city · 23-02-2014 10:00AM

asteroth wrote: »

Lots of Irish went to Australia over the last 5 years after the financial meltdown ground Ireland's economy to a halt. Jobs were plentiful in Oz what with construction and mining. I read recently however that joblessness now in Australia is at it's highest since 2002. Ford, Toyota and GM are all scheduled to cease operation there in the next 3 years.

So, does anyone know anyone who has emigrated to Australia and can say what things are like "one the ground"? Are things slowing down, etc.?

Do you know any Irish people working for those companies?

Wages are too high in Australia to support manufacturing jobs.....It's still pretty much booming compared to Europe and the US.

Del2005 · 23-02-2014 10:05AM

The Aussie wrote: »

This talk has been about for years now, but the economy keep on going, could it just be Irish begrudgers...

The exact same was said about Ireland before we went bust. Or has Australia somehow managed to make history by not having a boom and bust cycle that has been happening for hundreds of years?

Thought to be fair it'll must likely be a crisis in China which will cause the crash and the rest of the world will be in the same financial crisis.

mickman · 23-02-2014 10:07AM

Del2005 wrote: »

The exact same was said about Ireland before we went bust. Or has Australia somehow managed to make history by not having a boom and bust cycle that has been happening for hundreds of years?

Thought to be fair it'll must likely be a crisis in China which will cause the crash and the rest of the world will be in the same financial crisis.

Of course it will bust but china will decide on when that happens.

The Aussie · 23-02-2014 10:18AM

Del2005 wrote: »

The exact same was said about Ireland before we went bust.

Nah that was all the "experts" with 20/20 hindsight saying I told you so afterwards, there were a handful who did but were dismissed by the masses.

Del2005 wrote: »

Or has Australia somehow managed to make history by not having a boom and bust cycle that has been happening for hundreds of years?

Australia has been in a lull for a few years now (bust cycle), it has always been a country of Boom and Bust, I think some Irish want Australia to fail so they can say "Look, we are not the only financially incompetent bunch about", but Australia keeps on going

dmc17 · 23-02-2014 10:19AM

keeponhurling wrote: »

But, but, they can enthrall you with lots of stories about their travels.....

Yeah...."We went drinking every night in the Irish bar. Thanks for listening"

Wibbs · 23-02-2014 11:13AM

mickman wrote: »

Of course it will bust but china will decide on when that happens.

No they won't. Well they'll try to hide it as long as possible, but there will come a point where they won't be able to hide it any longer. China has the single largest commodities bubble in world history and unless they rewrite the rules of economics it will pop sooner or later.

KyussBishop · 23-02-2014 11:38AM

Steve Keen (Australian economist) has a good series of articles on this, particularly this one which gets to the meat of the issue: Household debt.

Some interesting charts, particularly the ones including Ireland's bubble:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/10/28/property/housing-hopes-will-souffle-rise-twice

Here was the rate of change of our level of private debt, compared to some other EU countries - pretty insane:
http://2.static.australianindependentbusinessmedia.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/house6.png?itok=E2gLr1sb

For Australia, seems like the data correlates with a housing bubble alright - either it's going to be deliberately deflated to prevent economic damage, or someday (no way to predict when) it will burst.

Unlikely for any burst to be as catastrophic as here though - the bubble is (as a percentage of GDP) only sightly larger than the US one, and the bubble (judging by one of his later articles) seems to be more under control of government than other western bubbles have been.

There's not really any way to make solid predictions about bubbles, because there are a multitude of ways to keep them going on for ages, and to move bubbles from one area of the economy to another.

Fr_Dougal · 23-02-2014 11:52AM

black and amber wrote: »

So all the dickheads that went over there are gonna come back? Great.

Yeah but they won't be able to come back with their non-EU husbands and wives!

cletus van damme · 23-02-2014 01:08PM

The Aussie wrote: »

This talk has been about for years now, but the economy keep on going, could it just be Irish begrudgers...

a soft landing , no doubt...

The Aussie · 23-02-2014 01:16PM

cletus van damme wrote: »

a soft landing , no doubt...

Yeh, all those Economic Refugees under you would make for a soft landing alright.

o1s1n · 23-02-2014 01:30PM

The Aussie wrote: »

I think some Irish want Australia to fail so they can say "Look, we are not the only financially incompetent bunch about", but Australia keeps on going

The Aussie wrote: »

This talk has been about for years now, but the economy keep on going, could it just be Irish begrudgers...

The Aussie wrote: »

Yeh, all those Economic Refugees under you would make for a soft landing alright.

That's one giant shamrock shaped chip you've got on your shoulder.

The Aussie · 23-02-2014 01:37PM

o1s1n wrote: »

That's one giant shamrock shaped chip you've got on your shoulder.

Ah quick, someone dissed the economic power house that is.... Oh wait.

LOL :pac:......

Mad4simmental · 23-02-2014 01:48PM

I can't believe the begrudging by SUM posters here about people going to oz. I went for 5 years and set myself up with more than I ever could in Ireland in 50 years. My aunt went to America in the 80s in the down turn for work. My grandfather went to England in the 60s for work. Ireland's biggest export is its people. It always was and it always will be. If you stay home and have a good life and job ect fair play to ye, but don't bash people that got up and made sum thing for themselves insted of scratching their hole on the couch drawing the dole.

up for anything · 23-02-2014 01:49PM

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

Which mightn't mean anything because If you use Ireland as a barometer, baby production tends to increase during a downturn. And quite a few people here received the most amazing mortgage deals, only for their worlds and property values to implode weeks later.

Watch out for the First Born Plan

Fr_Dougal · 23-02-2014 01:53PM

The Aussie wrote: »

Ah quick, someone dissed the economic power house that is.... Oh wait.

LOL :pac:......

Still, it's good enough for you to abandon Australia. We welcome you to our economic powerhouse, you and your taxes.

Is Australia unraveling?

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