Giving some of N.I. back to the Republic

sparky42 · 28-01-2014 07:41PM

gallag wrote: »

if we posit a rise in prosperity to match the rest of Ireland?
I don't think N.Ireland is behind Ireland in terms of prosperity, don't be fooled by figures like GDP for Ireland, they include the profits multinational companies are just filtering through Ireland to avoid tax. I always think new car sales is a good way to compare economies, it's simple but it does show cash to spend without all the hard to gather figures like GDP, salary, taxes, health costs etc etc.

Fair enough, 2012: 47,000 cars in NI, 80,000 in the Republic for the same year.

If you look at the NI budget, it's still a significant amount below the Republics even after the reductions that have happened due to the Troika. a fair point about the GDP, however that's why there's GNP, which unlike GDP does strip out the multinational transfers:
GNP of the Republic: €164 billion
GNP of Northern Ireland: £29 billion (from what I can find)

Conchur · 28-01-2014 07:46PM

sparky42 wrote: »

Fair enough, 2012: 47,000 cars in NI, 80,000 in the Republic for the same year.

Bear in mind the population of the Republic is more than twice that of the North, though, so that's 0.017 new cars per person in the Republic and 0.026 new cars/person in the North.

sparky42 · 28-01-2014 08:02PM

Conchur wrote: »

Bear in mind the population of the Republic is more than twice that of the North, though, so that's 0.017 new cars per person in the Republic and 0.026 new cars/person in the North.

Yes but the North's numbers have been collapsing while the Republic's has been recovering (which makes sense due to the credit crunch in the South and the debt overhanging people). In 06 the South bought 160K of cars (220K for all motor vehicles) while NI bought 68K cars.

gallag · 28-01-2014 08:30PM

sparky42 wrote: »

Yes but the North's numbers have been collapsing while the Republic's has been recovering (which makes sense due to the credit crunch in the South and the debt overhanging people). In 06 the South bought 160K of cars (220K for all motor vehicles) while NI bought 68K cars.

52k for N.I in 2013, 74k for Ireland.

Reekwind · 28-01-2014 08:36PM

sparky42 wrote: »

The North would have had much more infrastructure investment up until the Tiger years, and areas like medical expenses would be much lower than the Republic, and yet it's economy has been shrinking more and more compared to the South. The North has always had one of if not the highest unemployment rate in the UK (100K+ right now), trying to pass that off as just malaise ignores the fact that even if it reached full economic employment they couldn't sustain it's own budget without reductions

Absolutely none of which is inherent to the North. There is nothing about the people, geography or economic base that condemns it to lower prosperity than the rest of the island - as witnessed by its long history of exactly that

And yes, economic malaise is exactly the term that should be used to describe a situation in which long-term unemployment is chronic and public sector employment accounts for almost a third of all jobs. A stronger economy, for which divorce from London is necessary, would reduce both of these

This is not a uniquely Irish problem - Scotland and the north of England suffer from similar economic neglect

gallag wrote:

I don't think N.Ireland is behind Ireland in terms of prosperity, don't be fooled by figures like GDP for Ireland

Explain the fact that the average wage in NI is some €12k less than the rest of Ireland

sparky42 · 28-01-2014 08:43PM

Reekwind wrote: »

Absolutely none of which is inherent to the North. There is nothing about the people, geography or economic base that condemns it to lower prosperity than the rest of the island - as witnessed by its long history of exactly that

And yes, economic malaise is exactly the term that should be used to describe a situation in which long-term unemployment is chronic and public sector employment accounts for almost a third of all jobs. A stronger economy, for which divorce from London is necessary, would reduce both of these

This is not a uniquely Irish problem - Scotland and the north of England suffer from similar economic neglect

I agree, the day the NI executive suggests making 200K of the public service redundant and limit their expenditure to what they can pay for themselves in order to boost competitiveness and encourage domestic growth I'll consider your points, however since that's not going to happen then I'll remain deeply doubtful that NI can ever catch up with the rest of the Republic without requiring the Republic to take on massive burdens.

gallag · 28-01-2014 08:54PM

Reekwind wrote: »

Explain the fact that the average wage in NI is some €12k less than the rest of Ireland

Different currency, different value of currency, different tax threshold and levels, different municipal charges, different price of bread and every other item in the grocery shop, different health care costs and different working benefits like child and tax credits.

Reekwind · 28-01-2014 09:03PM

sparky42 wrote: »

I agree, the day the NI executive suggests making 200K of the public service redundant and limit their expenditure to what they can pay for themselves in order to boost competitiveness and encourage domestic growth I'll consider your points, however since that's not going to happen then I'll remain deeply doubtful that NI can ever catch up with the rest of the Republic without requiring the Republic to take on massive burdens.

These aren't well paid roles we're talking about and nor is it a chicken and egg scenario. The issue with the NI public sector is the lack of private sector alternative: give people the option to move out of low-paid clerical jobs and they'll do so. A period of readjustment would of course be necessary but c'est la vie

gallag wrote:

Different currency, different value of currency...

No, that was a Euro value. But hey, maybe the NI and Ireland are on the same level. And both are £8k less than the rest of the UK, right?

sparky42 · 28-01-2014 09:05PM

gallag wrote: »

Different currency, different value of currency, different tax threshold and levels, different municipal charges, different price of bread and every other item in the grocery shop, different health care costs and different working benefits like child and tax credits.

And the GNP which strips out the multinationals? Converted the Average industrial wages are €29005.60 (NI) to €41800 (ROI). I'm not sure how the rest of your post affects Average wages, it effects Cost of Living but Average wages is just that how much is the average wage.

sparky42 · 28-01-2014 09:16PM

Reekwind wrote: »

These aren't well paid roles we're talking about and nor is it a chicken and egg scenario. The issue with the NI public sector is the lack of private sector alternative: give people the option to move out of low-paid clerical jobs and they'll do so. A period of readjustment would of course be necessary but c'est la vie

Over 120K of that number is Health and Education, something that the UK wouldn't push to be private and considering the HSE god knows what they'd get up to but again that requires the NI population to give up a major quality of life issue for them. Education isn't going to be privatised, neither would Policing for another 10K, maybe you manage to reduce the civil service/ local government number from 30K but how much you'd get out of that is up in the air, the rest I can't find exactly what they are in but I'd be really interested in finding out what you intend to privatise to somehow make NI competitive? The only ones I'd guess are political suicide buttons.

Sheldons Brain · 28-01-2014 10:50PM

But yes in trying to dress up unification as the solution to everything while ignoring the systemic and decades long issues in the North is just fine, I'm sure you'll be the first to volunteer to increase your taxes and reduce your services for the North.

Unification may not be the solution to everything, but the things that are required to make unification possible are in themselves desirable for NI. It may have escaped notice, but the UK budget deficit and accumulated debt is also large and public expenditure is not going to be on an upward trajectory. In addition, the Scottish political developments are almost certainly going to lead to some sort of reassessment, or at least great transparency, of financial transfers in the UK.

Over 120K of that number is Health and Education, something that the UK wouldn't push to be private and considering the HSE god knows what they'd get up to but again that requires the NI population to give up a major quality of life issue for them. Education isn't going to be privatised, neither would Policing for another 10K, maybe you manage to reduce the civil service/ local government number from 30K but how much you'd get out of that is up in the air, the rest I can't find exactly what they are in but I'd be really interested in finding out what you intend to privatise to somehow make NI competitive? The only ones I'd guess are political suicide buttons.

If NI has more public spending pro rata than other places which also have health, education etc then it is being spent on something else. This is where the reduction should lie.

sparky42 · 28-01-2014 11:01PM

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

Unification may not be the solution to everything, but the things that are required to make unification possible are in themselves desirable for NI. It may have escaped notice, but the UK budget deficit and accumulated debt is also large and public expenditure is not going to be on an upward trajectory. In addition, the Scottish political developments are almost certainly going to lead to some sort of reassessment, or at least great transparency, of financial transfers in the UK.

And if they make improvements then the attraction to unification may well be reduced as well. In regards to the rest of the UK, like I pointed out a policy of the Peace Process has always been "carrot" either the Governments have offered or the NI have demanded (see Marty's recent Haass suggestion), so any adjustment will still leave NI getting the better part of 10 billion. As for Scotland, a) I don't see the Independence side winning and b) given the North Sea oil/gas they have many more cards than NI will ever have.

If NI has more public spending pro rata than other places which also have health, education etc then it is being spent on something else. This is where the reduction should lie.

Unemployment, child benefit, Pensions (remember they have 100K unemployed and another 900K that aren't in the workforce), that's a fair chunk of the rest of the spending I'd bet.

Sheldons Brain · 29-01-2014 12:24AM

In regards to the rest of the UK, like I pointed out a policy of the Peace Process has always been "carrot" either the Governments have offered or the NI have demanded (see Marty's recent Haass suggestion), so any adjustment will still leave NI getting the better part of 10 billion.

NI being a backward mendicant, remaining behind the rest of these islands, is not a very attractive outcome. And if Britain thought it could be rid of NI in a peaceful and agreed way they'd not strike a hard deal on the transitional arrangements.

RoyalCelt · 29-01-2014 12:40AM

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

Is this thread in a serious forum or in After Hours? From its ridiculous title to the type of irrelevant predjudice in the previous post, it sets a low standard even for the Politics forum.

Northern Ireland needs to build a proper future for itself as it moves towards a nationalist majority, this requires real political work, not fantasy maps.

I was and still am very serious about this thread.

RoyalCelt · 29-01-2014 12:43AM

ardmacha wrote: »

This presupposes that NI is inevitably significantly poorer than Britain/ROI and so in need of all of these subsidies. There is no intrinsic reason why this should be case, you would expect that Belfast/East NI would be much the same level of prosperity as the rest of Ireland and that perhaps West Tyrone/Fermanagh might be like Roscommon.

I think the trouble in the north puts a lot of companies off moving to places like Belfast. Expenditure on things like policing would also be through the roof.

gallag · 29-01-2014 01:09AM

Reekwind wrote: »

No, that was a Euro value. But hey, maybe the NI and Ireland are on the same level. And both are £8k less than the rest of the UK, right?

And the rest? Tax allowance? Rates? If someone in the U.K earns about 20000 a year and has kids they will get about 5000 a year child tax credits, what about living costs? Is a pint of milk or a pack of nappies cheaper in the UK? Free bins, dental, health care and water?

How do you explain people in N.Ireland being able to buy more new cars?

marienbad · 29-01-2014 11:55AM

gallag wrote: »

And the rest? Tax allowance? Rates? If someone in the U.K earns about 20000 a year and has kids they will get about 5000 a year child tax credits, what about living costs? Is a pint of milk or a pack of nappies cheaper in the UK? Free bins, dental, health care and water?

How do you explain people in N.Ireland being able to buy more new cars?

You are on a loser here gallag, because people in the Republic are/were mired in debt (you night have read about it

) and we can see even with a small recovery car sales are on the increase again.

Fratton Fred · 29-01-2014 12:09PM

RoyalCelt wrote: »

I think the trouble in the north puts a lot of companies off moving to places like Belfast. Expenditure on things like policing would also be through the roof.

Exactly.

Then you have the spiral of unemployment breeding radicalism to make matters worse.

Solution? Ship a lot of public sector jobs out of London and in to northern Ireland. It's a win win, it creates jobs where needed and reduces the cost of those jobs to the exchequer.

marienbad · 29-01-2014 12:20PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Exactly.

Then you have the spiral of unemployment breeding radicalism to make matters worse.

Solution? Ship a lot of public sector jobs out of London and in to northern Ireland. It's a win win, it creates jobs where needed and reduces the cost of those jobs to the exchequer.

That just prolongs the problem- sooner or later the economy must become competitive . That is the only solution

Fratton Fred · 29-01-2014 01:35PM

marienbad wrote: »

That just prolongs the problem- sooner or later the economy must become competitive . That is the only solution

It was never going to be competitive whilst people were killing each other. Who in their right mind would recommend the North to a board of directors as a viable place to set up, when s sizeable chunk of people are actively trying to destroy the economic infrastructure of Northern Ireland?

marienbad · 29-01-2014 01:47PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It was never going to be competitive whilst people were killing each other. Who in their right mind would recommend the North to a board of directors as a viable place to set up, when s sizeable chunk of people are actively trying to destroy the economic infrastructure of Northern Ireland?

I fully accept that as long as the conflict continued there was no possibility of economic recovery. But sooner or later it will have to be tackled and I don't see the current politicians having the balls for it.

sparky42 · 29-01-2014 09:05PM

marienbad wrote: »

I fully accept that as long as the conflict continued there was no possibility of economic recovery. But sooner or later it will have to be tackled and I don't see the current politicians having the balls for it.

Considering even the upcoming NI politicians I don't see that changing anytime soon.

RoyalCelt · 31-01-2014 01:42AM

How will Scotland getting independence (if they do) affect the UK's economy? London must get a lot from scotlands energy sector?

radiocrackle · 31-01-2014 05:08PM

it amazes me how simple people seem to believe the issue of the north is - as if you can just stick it onto the south. If the north and south were ever going to unite, it would mean a completely new country, with a completely new political system developed over a very long period of time. Its not a matter of adding the 6 counties to the other 26 and still running the republic as it is.

orangesoda · 09-02-2014 05:04PM

It's nonsense, sure there is villages in them orange regions that have 90 odd % nationalist population and vice versa in the green regions

RoyalCelt · 11-02-2014 02:03AM

Scotland pushing ahead with independence. I think they will do quite OK on their own. Will they join the euro and will N.I ever look for independence?

tdv123 · 11-02-2014 02:50AM

RoyalCelt wrote: »

Scotland pushing ahead with independence. I think they will do quite OK on their own. Will they join the euro and will N.I ever look for independence?

The question has to be asked why are the people of Scotland allowed to decide as a single unit the future of their country & Ireland's future is decided by small minority in the North East. Whether your against full independence or for it you have to admit that's unfair & undemocratic

The Corinthian · 11-02-2014 09:51AM

tdv123 wrote: »

The question has to be asked why are the people of Scotland allowed to decide as a single unit the future of their country & Ireland's future is decided by small minority in the North East. Whether your against full independence or for it you have to admit that's unfair & undemocratic

By that logic then England, Wales and NI should also have a vote in Scottish independence - or any future NI independence, given that otherwise Britain's future would be decided by small minority in the north, either.

Ironically, I suspect it would make independence more likely for Scotland or, especially, NI.

Also, I think you're confusing how any such NI referendum would be likely to work, as it would not be one vote, but two; one for NI independence and a second for unification with the Republic. I wholeheartedly support the notion that all parties involved in the latter should have a say in it as you suggest, but where it comes to the former, it really is ultimately their independence, and hence their business.

tdv123 · 11-02-2014 10:59AM

The Corinthian wrote: »

By that logic then England, Wales and NI should also have a vote in Scottish independence - or any future NI independence, given that otherwise Britain's future would be decided by small minority in the north, either.

Ironically, I suspect it would make independence more likely for Scotland or, especially, NI.

Also, I think you're confusing how any such NI referendum would be likely to work, as it would not be one vote, but two; one for NI independence and a second for unification with the Republic. I wholeheartedly support the notion that all parties involved in the latter should have a say in it as you suggest, but where it comes to the former, it really is ultimately their independence, and hence their business.

Have a little longer memory than that mate.

If Scotland votes for independence the country wont be partitioned & thugs like the auxiliaries won't be sent to Scotland to try & thwart the democratic wishes of the Scottish people. When people voted for independence here in 1918 their wishes were ignored.

My point is we have no say if the country is partitioned or not whether we'd vote for unity or against it. It's left in the hands of a small minority to decide the future of partition

R P McMurphy · 11-02-2014 11:13AM

The Corinthian wrote: »

By that logic then England, Wales and NI should also have a vote in Scottish independence - or any future NI independence, given that otherwise Britain's future would be decided by small minority in the north, either.

Ironically, I suspect it would make independence more likely for Scotland or, especially, NI.

Also, I think you're confusing how any such NI referendum would be likely to work, as it would not be one vote, but two; one for NI independence and a second for unification with the Republic. I wholeheartedly support the notion that all parties involved in the latter should have a say in it as you suggest, but where it comes to the former, it really is ultimately their independence, and hence their business.

What section of the GFA covers these two referendums?

Giving some of N.I. back to the Republic

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