Bitcoin/Litecoin

AtomicHorror · 09-12-2013 11:27AM

Value Hunter wrote: »

The above posted two week before the crash :rolleyes:

And did you call the peak? No. Now that BTC is experiencing some growth again, will you call the bear trap or the bottom now? No. Based on your model, can we expect further growth now or another decline?

You accused me of being vague in my stance, but calling "bubble" on something experiencing rapid growth without placing any kind of constraints on that claim is at least as vague. It's a claim so broad it is not amenable to testing, and more critically is not useful for the would-be investor.

Value Hunter wrote: »

In volatile crackpot 'investments' like this it is impossible to predict the short term future accurately, the fact that a major crash occurred just two weeks after my post is more to do with fortune than skill on my part, i'm not so egotistical as to claim I predicted this crash perfectly.

It's impossible to predict the short term future accurately, but not only did you attempt to make a short term claim, you expressed it with such certainty. And now you're certain that you were correct, even as BTC rises towards $1000 for the third time. Maybe it's the second peak on the bubble- I genuinely don't know and I wouldn't argue for or against it for the very reasons you have given.

Value Hunter wrote: »

However I think its pretty clear to anyone who read my posts that I believed this to be in a bubble, such a crash only strengthens my argument.

Except that you've failed to show how the behaviour of BTC in the last few days connects to your "prediction". Also, the evidence that the changes in BTC pricing are based on changes in it's utility seem to contradict your earlier posts which suggested the price was based on speculation relating to expected future value and not current, real-world value. You've ignored that point again. And again you won't commit to a position on where BTC will go next, even in a broad sense.

Value Hunter wrote: »

Any regular viewers in this forum know I am one of the most proficient at stating my position in an investment before hand. Which is in stark contrast to yourself.

The fact that you didn't understand my position does not make it unclear, just unclear to you. I can't explain it any clearer than I already have.

Value Hunter wrote: »

I believe every major stock market is a positive expectation bet in the long term...... Do you see the futility of such muddled predictions?

That's not a muddled prediction, it's just factually wrong. What you have stated here is extremely clear and obviously incorrect since it means that any and all investments would see at least some ROI at some point in the future. The opposite in fact is true, purely based on the reality that everything falls apart given enough time.

The only part of my statement that might be taken as ambiguous would be the time frame, so if it helps you then lets set it at 10 years. I consider the odds that BTC will hold a value of €10,000 or more within 10 years to be better than 10% but probably not much better than that. If the price of BTC were €3000 right now with no new information available to us, then I would say "do not buy". If it were €100, under the same conditions, I would say "buy" with greater confidence than I do today. At the current price, we're still good, but for me there's a tipping point somewhere above €1500 which would make it a bad bet in the absence of clearer information. If for example eBay or Amazon started accepting BTC and continued to do so for perhaps a year, then I would revise the acceptable buy-in upwards.

Value Hunter wrote: »

Its very easy to hide behind such ambiguous statements

Again, not ambiguous. Your attempt to apply it above indicates you don't understand it and frankly that's very surprising given how freely and firmly you give your opinion here. I think it's the firmness that bothers me the most.

Mrdata. · 09-12-2013 12:59PM

I am interested in buying a few litecoins. After reading up on it was thinking of using Bitstamp for deposit? Does anyone know what the minimum euro deposit amount is on Bitstamp.
Then sending the bitcoin I buy on Bitstamp to Btc-e and buying Litecoin? Then reversing the process to get my money out (if there is any). Does anyone here just deposit/withdraw with Btc-e and OKpay? Reading some posts on other forums about Btc-e holding money so I am unsure if I should use them or not.
Thanks
Data

AtomicHorror · 09-12-2013 02:34PM

Mrdata. wrote: »

I am interested in buying a few litecoins. After reading up on it was thinking of using Bitstamp for deposit? Does anyone know what the minimum euro deposit amount is on Bitstamp.
Then sending the bitcoin I buy on Bitstamp to Btc-e and buying Litecoin? Then reversing the process to get my money out (if there is any). Does anyone here just deposit/withdraw with Btc-e and OKpay? Reading some posts on other forums about Btc-e holding money so I am unsure if I should use them or not.
Thanks
Data

No minimum deposit to Bitstamp that I'm aware of. Their SEPA deposit page makes no mention of it anyway. There are fees if you deposit from a non-SEPA country but I assume you're based in Ireland so should be free.

Dean820 · 11-12-2013 07:34PM

I bought my first bitcoin last night. It has already lost $200 in value. Welcome to the crazy world of bitcoin. :P

I'm looking at this as a long term investment so I'm not concerned. It's kind of become a hobby reading articles on reddit.com every day about it. The community is fantastic I have to say. So helpful and devoted.

AtomicHorror · 11-12-2013 09:02PM

Dean820 wrote: »

I bought my first bitcoin last night. It has already lost $200 in value.

How? They're not even down $100 from their peak last night. What rate did you pay?

Dean820 · 11-12-2013 09:45PM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

How? They're not even down $100 from their peak last night. What rate did you pay?

Actually you're right. It was $1000 roughly when I paid and is now $900. It was down to the 800's earlier though, a slight exaggeration on my part.

AtomicHorror · 11-12-2013 09:52PM

Dean820 wrote: »

Actually you're right. It was $1000 roughly when I paid and is now $900. It was down to the 800's earlier though, a slight exaggeration on my part.

Zeroblock says $965- so might be that your exchange is a bit cheaper than others right now. Where did you buy out of interest?

Dean820 · 11-12-2013 10:03PM

PM'ed you. The one I look at is http://bitcoinwisdom.com.

PlanIT Computing · 18-12-2013 11:23AM

Bitcoin trading around sub $500 dollars and lite coin @ $11..

Sparticle · 18-12-2013 02:21PM

Everybody should switch to Dogecoin and be done with it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcaltexImW0#t=145

You too can shibe with the greats.

strmin · 18-12-2013 02:50PM

I think it is just a matter of time until governments shut down bitcoin.

marvin_spazz · 18-12-2013 03:01PM

strmin wrote: »

I think it is just a matter of time until governments shut down bitcoin.

funny you post that AFTER the chinese did today. :rolleyes:

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/chinese-ban-hits-bitcoin-values-29849825.html

tis all over now

strmin · 18-12-2013 03:20PM

marvin_spazz wrote: »

funny you post that AFTER the chinese did today. :rolleyes:

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/chinese-ban-hits-bitcoin-values-29849825.html

tis all over now

Actually, I saw this on tv after I posted

Seems like Denmark also considering ruling against bitcoin. Might be beginning of the end.

AtomicHorror · 18-12-2013 03:41PM

strmin wrote: »

Actually, I saw this on tv after I posted

Seems like Denmark also considering ruling against bitcoin. Might be beginning of the end.

Maybe, but the US seems cautiously favourable and European countries are more likely to follow their line than China's. What will probably knock BTC in 2014 will be various countries legislating to define BTC so that exchanges can be taxed. This will only bother BTC holders if there's not enough businesses accepting BTC to make it practical for them to spend their cash without having to make an exchange. Hard to say how the balance will pan out, but the timing could be very tricky.

It looks like a good time to buy anyway. As is typical, I'm without spare cash when the bottom comes and it never lasts long.

Cuddled · 18-12-2013 06:09PM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Maybe, but the US seems cautiously favourable and European countries are more likely to follow their line than China's. What will probably knock BTC in 2014 will be various countries legislating to define BTC so that exchanges can be taxed. This will only bother BTC holders if there's not enough businesses accepting BTC to make it practical for them to spend their cash without having to make an exchange. Hard to say how the balance will pan out, but the timing could be very tricky.

It looks like a good time to buy anyway. As is typical, I'm without spare cash when the bottom comes and it never lasts long.

Ah here you're self delusional. Bitcoin is a farce on a par with the Dutch tulip madness 400 odd years ago.

nxbyveromdwjpg · 18-12-2013 06:17PM

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/idUS11028439720131211

I'll take a friendly side bet with anyone here that it hits over $1500 in 2014

alb · 18-12-2013 07:44PM

During the night I had a buy order fill for the first time in a while, will buy some more gradually between now and the end of the year. Still not sure whether China is now a complete non-factor or just has the brakes on a bit, but either way I'm willing to take my chances with BTC in 2014.

AtomicHorror · 18-12-2013 07:52PM

Cuddled wrote: »

Ah here you're self delusional. Bitcoin is a farce on a par with the Dutch tulip madness 400 odd years ago.

Delusional? I've always had a fairly sceptical view of the future for bitcoin. I think the tulipmania thing has been dealt with before. Not a good comparison really. Maybe you could make an argument to support that claim. Might me a bit more productive than calling me delusional. That's a pretty easy one to throw at anyone who holds some view you don't share.

alb wrote: »

During the night I had a buy order fill for the first time in a while, will buy some more gradually between now and the end of the year. Still not sure whether China is now a complete non-factor or just has the brakes on a bit, but either way I'm willing to take my chances with BTC in 2014.

The world is waking up to it, for better or worse. So it's certainly going to be a very telling year, whatever way it works out.

KyussBishop · 18-12-2013 08:36PM

nm wrote: »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/idUS11028439720131211

I'll take a friendly side bet with anyone here that it hits over $1500 in 2014

That it stays at $1500 sustainably, or that it hits $1500 in a new bubble before crashing again?

KyussBishop · 18-12-2013 08:45PM

It seems to me, that China has set the precedent for such heavy restrictions on Bitcoin, that is likely to be followed by the US and Europe (among other large economic regions), if Bitcoin's undergo more speculative bubbles like this in the future.

I don't think it's possible for Bitcoin to avoid such speculative bubbles either (I've no idea what kind of mechanism could be used to prevent it), so it seems like a fair bet, that Bitcoin's repeated instability in the future, will trigger greater restrictions being placed on it around the world - and this will limit its economic usefulness.

So, it may have a few more bubbles and pops in it, but I think that those are going to be the events that make Bitcoin harder to convert into other prominent currencies (and practically eliminate that happening in large volumes - without risk of prosecution), and that this will greatly undermine its transactional usefulness and value in the future.

Freddie Dodge · 19-12-2013 10:48AM

KyussBishop wrote: »

It seems to me, that China has set the precedent for such heavy restrictions on Bitcoin, that is likely to be followed by the US and Europe (among other large economic regions), if Bitcoin's undergo more speculative bubbles like this in the future.

I don't think it's possible for Bitcoin to avoid such speculative bubbles either (I've no idea what kind of mechanism could be used to prevent it), so it seems like a fair bet, that Bitcoin's repeated instability in the future, will trigger greater restrictions being placed on it around the world - and this will limit its economic usefulness.

So, it may have a few more bubbles and pops in it, but I think that those are going to be the events that make Bitcoin harder to convert into other prominent currencies (and practically eliminate that happening in large volumes - without risk of prosecution), and that this will greatly undermine its transactional usefulness and value in the future.

You go into every bitcoin thread on boards decrying it as a ponzi scheme and posting your hopes that it crashes. You have called us who speculate in it "scum" in another thread.

Whats your skin in the game? Why do you hate the idea of people freely trading their own possessions?

Does it not fit with your worldview where individual effort/ingenuity is stunted to appease the non-contributors?

Again, why don't you, - you know like - NOT buy some bitcoin and just leave it at that.

KyussBishop · 19-12-2013 03:29PM

Freddie Dodge wrote: »

You go into every bitcoin thread on boards decrying it as a ponzi scheme and posting your hopes that it crashes.

Quote me posting a hope that it crashes, anywhere (which, before you try to move the goalposts, is different from pointing out the fact that it was an economic bubble that would crash, and now has).

Freddie Dodge wrote: »

You have called us who speculate in it "scum" in another thread.

If someone promotes and participates in an economic bubble, trying to get other people in and to stay in, with the person promoting it knowing full well it will rebound in value and make a loss for those people, and with the intention of making a profit by exploiting all of the people at the bottom who will be left with less than they put in - then yes, they are an utter scumbag.

If people buy Bitcoin with an honest belief that it will gain and hold long term value - no problem with that. Or, if they are speculating and actually stupid enough not to know that any profits will be built on other peoples losses - I don't view that well, but they aren't scumbags.

If however, people buy it with the express intent of exploiting others for profit, and then try shift the blame onto them "well they should know what they're getting into" etc. etc. and crap like that - they are scumbags trying to externalize-away any personal responsibility, for exploiting others.

Freddie Dodge wrote: »

Does it not fit with your worldview where individual effort/ingenuity is stunted to appease the non-contributors?

Yes, buying Bitcoin low and selling it high - what a monumental amount of 'effort' and 'ingenuity' you've provided, for the benefit society - typical free-marketeer bollocks:
Exploit other people for profit, through activities that harm rather than benefit society, and then round up into a circlejerk to collectively praise your stellar 'contribution' to society.

Freddie Dodge wrote: »

Again, why don't you, - you know like - NOT buy some bitcoin and just leave it at that.

Don't whinge when someone criticizes Bitcoin - I've been discussing this in a few places, and it's a very notable thing among Bitcoin users: If you're doing anything except singing the praises of Bitcoin, there will always be a few who get ultra-defensive - probably the ones who fall foul of my criticisms (such as, by expressly getting into Bitcoin to exploit others for profit).

I'm pretty interested in Bitcoin, as far as learning about cryptocurrencies in general and their future - particularly predicting/speculating about their future - (and due to a general interest in economics), as an interesting way to see bubbles and ethics-free/fraudulent mindsets in action, and as a possibly stable future currency that I can actually use myself for transactions, and possibly other things like getting better rates on foreign exchange.

Roonbox · 19-12-2013 05:59PM

A dose of bad news over the past week, I think its held up reasonably well. Very Volatile, that's expected for something that;s really only being tested.

I'm holding, not buying, not selling.

nxbyveromdwjpg · 19-12-2013 07:14PM

Roonbox wrote: »

A dose of bad news over the past week, I think its held up reasonably well. Very Volatile, that's expected for something that;s really only being tested.

I'm holding, not buying, not selling.

I agree. The extremely short-term China bubble has come and gone and the market seems to have corrected itself, settling around 650 usd.

Up approx 4900% on where it was this time last year. Some 'crash' alright.

nxbyveromdwjpg · 19-12-2013 07:32PM

KyussBishop wrote: »

That it stays at $1500 sustainably, or that it hits $1500 in a new bubble before crashing again?

I've no crystal ball, I could see another bubble or two though sure, whenever the media runs wild with it this happens. And then it settles again higher than it ever was previously.

At least that's whats happened the last two times it's rocketed, complete with people crying 'end of the world' on the downtrend. Seems to just be part of the cycle.

Hopefully we see it moving towards fulfilling it's potential and becoming more widely adopted as a currency, rather than commodity next year.

nxbyveromdwjpg · 19-12-2013 07:33PM

KyussBishop wrote: »

If you're doing anything except singing the praises of Bitcoin, there will always be a few who get ultra-defensive

Ha ha, wow.. pot, kettle.

KyussBishop · 19-12-2013 08:17PM

nm wrote: »

I've no crystal ball, I could see another bubble or two though sure, whenever the media runs wild with it this happens. And then it settles again higher than it ever was previously.

At least that's whats happened the last two times it's rocketed, complete with people crying 'end of the world' on the downtrend. Seems to just be part of the cycle.

Hopefully we see it moving towards fulfilling it's potential and becoming more widely adopted as a currency, rather than commodity next year.

I was more asking, if your bet was that it would hit $1500 (say, at the peak of a bubble, before falling), or the bet was that it would hit $1500 and maintain that relative value - but nvm.

mloc123 · 19-12-2013 09:32PM

Could be good quick return to be made on dogecoin now, up almost 400% in 24 hours

nxbyveromdwjpg · 19-12-2013 09:34PM

If we're betting I'll say hit $1500. Will it stay there and stabilise, hopefully.

Suryavarman · 19-12-2013 10:50PM

KyussBishop wrote: »

Quote me posting a hope that it crashes, anywhere (which, before you try to move the goalposts, is different from pointing out the fact that it was an economic bubble that would crash, and now has).

Bitcoin being a bubble is far from being a fact. The only fact is that the Bitcoin market is extremely responsive to new information.

Bitcoin/Litecoin

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