The Football Tips Thread V

Avfctom · 06-12-2013 10:51AM

Lass any opinions on marseille ? Price of even money seems more than generous tempted to throw them in a treble with Celtic and juventus also backing both teams to score Celtic win at 3/1 and Celtic to win 3-1 on correct score market Motherwell more than capable of causing problems but Celtic should prove too strong

baddebt · 06-12-2013 12:48PM

ok , thinking about this , opinions greatly appreciated
QPR (extremely hard to beat at home )
LEEDS (on a great run at the mo 5 wins from last 5 home games)
StUTTGART (should win at home )
eintracht frank-Hoffen over 2.5goals (all I cann see here is goals , hoffenhiem score lots , but cannot defend to save their lives )

12/1

TheHannibal · 06-12-2013 01:03PM

Treble for the weekend.

Man City to win
Fulham to win
Newcastle +2 ah

@6.11

Surprised at the price but don't let it put you off. City are away to Southampton who already lost at home midweek against a Villa side who have stifled for goals. Something City don't struggle with. City won 3-2 away in the week but importantly Southampton still have their third choice keeper who's dreadful and key starters Wanyama and Clyne are definitely out and Jose Fonte their centr back doubtful. City welcome back the rested Negredo for a bit more firepower.

Newcastle got spanked midweek to Swansea prior to that blip they'd been on a great run with manager Pardew given manager of the month. Cannot see them getting thrashed again. United are without the suspended Rooney and Robin van Persie is a big doubt still. Goals will have to come from Hernandez or Welbeck. Kagawa had breathing problems at the end of the Everton game and may not be risked.

Fulham v Villa. This really boosts the odds up with not many fancying a struggling fulham side however they've been rejuvenated with new manager Rene Muelensteen and deserved to beat Spurs in the week despite losing 2-1. Now desperate for points a win here is vital. Villa will potentially be without Vlaar which means a likely formation change to the one that won midweek.

jebus84 · 06-12-2013 01:18PM

TheHannibal wrote: »

Treble for the weekend.

Man City to win
Fulham to win
Newcastle +2 ah

@6.11

Surprised at the price but don't let it put you off. City are away to Southampton who already lost at home midweek against a Villa side who have stifled for goals. Something City don't struggle with. City won 3-2 away in the week but importantly Southampton still have their third choice keeper who's dreadful and key starters Wanyama and Clyne are definitely out and Jose Fonte their centr back doubtful. City welcome back the rested Negredo for a bit more firepower.

might go city -1 over the weekend

Dio On The Doubles · 06-12-2013 01:51PM

Nurnberg v Mainz tonight has a great H2H of +2.5 goals. Only one game in the last six went under (0-0 at that too)

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2013/12/06/germany/bundesliga/1-fc-nurnberg/1-fsv-mainz-05/1487154/head2head/

Nurnberg are on a desperate run at the moment and badly need a win. One thing that worries me for overs is the Mainz coach has said he will stick with the young keeper who filled in for their regular keeper while he was suspended for three games. This should encourage him to try play extra well to keep his place now that there is competition again.

I'll wait till in play to see if something can be got on either Mainz team goals or possibly a +1.5 line if it stays scoreless.

The +2.5 line was evens last night and has now dropped to 5/6

edit: just to add you have to go back 13 away games to find a Mainz game under 2.5

Benfica v Arouca

This seemed great on first inspection 2nd v 2nd bottom. I had taken Benfica 3 or more teams goals @ 10/11 .. I have since cancelled this bet using the new 'close bet' option on Bet365 (great new addition)

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2013/12/06/portugal/portuguese-liga-/benfica/fc-arouca/1511794/head2head/

My reason for closing and waiting till in play to back again is Benfica have a do or die champions league match on Tuesday hosting PSG which I originally overlooked. Benfica are level on points in the second spot of the group but a goal behind on GD putting them third place.

Will check lineups before this game as they very likely will rest players for Tuesday. Will hold out for a while into the game to see if they look like having some value in the goals market.

Benfica have covered 3 team goals 3/5 of their last games. Might even get to back a lower line in play for near evens.

paulb06 · 06-12-2013 02:30PM

Anyone know what team Barca are likely to put out tonight v Cartagena in the cup? They're 1/8, but 1st half over 1.5 is appealing at just over evens, they like to put teams away early and 4 out of 5 of Barcelona's games have seen over 1.5 1st half.

Edit, price just dropped to below evens now.

Lasagna Diarra · 06-12-2013 02:37PM

Avfctom wrote: »

Lass any opinions on marseille ? Price of even money seems more than generous tempted to throw them in a treble with Celtic and juventus also backing both teams to score Celtic win at 3/1 and Celtic to win 3-1 on correct score market Motherwell more than capable of causing problems but Celtic should prove too strong

Nantes are surprisingly pretty strong this season, they're just 1 point below Marseille, very hard to call this game... Marseille are missing their playmaker Valbuena, I'd skip this game.

Shane St. · 06-12-2013 02:40PM

Man Utd v Newcastle

Newcastle to win 11/2
It was highlighted in the post match analysis of the Everton defeat how little protection the Utd back four is currently getting without Michael Carrick. The only player in Utd ranks who appears to be capable of doing a job protecting the back four. Time and again Ross Barkley was able to run directly at the Utd back four.
Utd are missing big players through the spine of their team and with no Rooney (suspension) and no return date set for Van Persie I have to recommend the 11/2 for a Newcastle team who have already won at Spurs and beaten Chelsea in recent weeks.

Loic Remy anytime 21/10
The Frenchman has enjoyed his time in the North East (8 league goals) and will relish facing a Utd side with one clean sheet in their last 10 league games.

Opta stats:
Man Utd have lost four Barclays Premier League games this season, only one fewer than the whole of 2012-13 (5).
Papiss Cisse scored on both trips to Old Trafford in all competitions last season (one league, one Capital One Cup).
Jonny Evans has scored in the last two Barclays Premier League meetings between Man Utd and Newcastle and also netted an own goal at Old Trafford in this fixture last season.

Liverpool v West Ham

Liverpool to win to nil 6/5
The Hammers scoring problems have been well documented (failed to score in 5/7 away from home) and with Liverpool possessing a world class player in the form Suarez is in right now they should be able to win this one.

Opta stats:
Luis Suarez (13) has scored one more Barclays Premier League goal than West Ham have as a team (12) this season.
The Hammers have failed to score in five of their seven Barclays Premier League away games this season.
West Ham United have not won away in the league at Anfield since 1963, losing 29 and drawing 11 of their subsequent 40 trips since

Sunderland v Tottenham

Draw 5/2
Both these sides are struggling a bit at the moment (both just one win in 5) and I can see both sides taking a point.

Opta stats:
Sunderland have lost eight points from winning positions this season, more than any other Barclays Premier League team.
Tottenham are one of only two teams (along with Newcastle) yet to score more than twice in a Barclays Premier League game this season.
Steven Fletcher has scored in three of his last five Premier League games against Spurs.

TheHannibal · 06-12-2013 03:10PM

Infor, Tempted to get on Dordrecht tonight. They seem head and shoulders above the rest an are available at a great price. I know they dropped points against Volendam but they seem good at bouncing back this season when going a game without a win. Thoughts?

inforfun · 06-12-2013 03:22PM

TheHannibal wrote: »

Infor, Tempted to get on Dordrecht tonight. They seem head and shoulders above the rest an are available at a great price. I know they dropped points against Volendam but they seem good at bouncing back this season when going a game without a win. Thoughts?

No one is head and shoulders above the rest there.
They are just slipping up less than the rest. Been very lucky in the last couple of weeks, away to Volendam and at home against Eindhoven (Just look at the order and times the goals were scored in those matches)

Good goalkeeper in Hahn, U21 gk and next year at Feyenoord, and a couple of players who can score goals gets you far in that league.

De Graafschap website mentions they have the same 11 as last week when they won 4-0 against Emmen.

So if you believe Dordrecht will win, you might as well do win/BTTS on PP or Win/over(probably 3,5?) on bet365.

magherakid · 06-12-2013 03:54PM

Villarreal v Elche
BTTS 11/10
Another cup match but in the league 6 of 7 away games for Elche has seen both teams score.

This match is kicking off in a few mins

Lasagna Diarra · 06-12-2013 04:22PM

Barcelona without Messi, Iniesta, Xavi and Pique. Neymar expected to start on the bench.

probable line up: Oier Olazabal; Martin Montoya, Carles Puyol, Marc Bartra, Jordi Alba; Alex Song, Sergi Roberto, Cesc Fabregas; Adama Traore, Jean Marie Dongou, Pedro

Traore and Dongou haven't scored a single goal for Barca B this season.

Barcelona's away games vs smaller teams in the Cup:
2-0 vs Cordoba
3-0 vs Alaves
1-0 vs L'hospitalet
3-0 vs Almeria
2-0 vs Ceuta

Under 3.5 @ 1.90
and as a cover: Barca 4-0 @ 8.00

magherakid · 06-12-2013 05:19PM

magherakid wrote: »

Villarreal v Elche
BTTS 11/10
Another cup match but in the league 6 of 7 away games for Elche has seen both teams score.

This match is kicking off in a few mins

get in there

DoctaDee · 06-12-2013 05:29PM

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Barcelona without Messi, Iniesta, Xavi and Pique. Neymar expected to start on the bench.

probable line up: Oier Olazabal; Martin Montoya, Carles Puyol, Marc Bartra, Jordi Alba; Alex Song, Sergi Roberto, Cesc Fabregas; Adama Traore, Jean Marie Dongou, Pedro

Traore and Dongou haven't scored a single goal for Barca B this season.

Barcelona's away games vs smaller teams in the Cup:
2-0 vs Cordoba
3-0 vs Alaves
1-0 vs L'hospitalet
3-0 vs Almeria
2-0 vs Ceuta

Under 3.5 @ 1.90
and as a cover: Barca 4-0 @ 8.00

I like this Las (good research btw) ... coupled with the fact the Copa is a 2 legged affair and Barca may just not be arsed .. as only Barca can do :rolleyes:

Lord TSC · 06-12-2013 07:09PM

Shane St. wrote: »

Man Utd v Newcastle

Newcastle to win 11/2
It was highlighted in the post match analysis of the Everton defeat how little protection the Utd back four is currently getting without Michael Carrick. The only player in Utd ranks who appears to be capable of doing a job protecting the back four. Time and again Ross Barkley was able to run directly at the Utd back four.
Utd are missing big players through the spine of their team and with no Rooney (suspension) and no return date set for Van Persie I have to recommend the 11/2 for a Newcastle team who have already won at Spurs and beaten Chelsea in recent weeks.

Sigh

Even as a United fan, I just can't see a win for us. So those odds are just too good to pass up

Colash · 06-12-2013 07:15PM

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Sigh

Even as a United fan, I just can't see a win for us. So those odds are just too good to pass up

This is tempting me to lump it on tomorrow . That price is too good too pass up .

Shane St. · 06-12-2013 07:24PM

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Sigh

Even as a United fan, I just can't see a win for us. So those odds are just too good to pass up

Utd fan too. I just think it has to be done

I'll prob go decent stakes on Lpool to win to nil and depending on line ups I'll be getting at the Remy anytime

discombobulate · 06-12-2013 07:24PM

Colash wrote: »

This is tempting me to lump it on tomorrow . That price is too good too pass up .

Would be more tempting if Newcastle hadn't just been thumped by a Swansea team also missing their 2 main attackers.

Colash · 06-12-2013 07:27PM

discombobulate wrote: »

Would be more tempting if Newcastle hadn't just been thumped by a Swansea team also missing their 2 main attackers.

I acutally just read that there on another forum . BTTS might be a safer option doubled up with Liverpool -1

P.Walnuts · 06-12-2013 07:28PM

discombobulate wrote: »

Would be more tempting if Newcastle hadn't just been thumped by a Swansea team also missing their 2 main attackers.

Is Remy out?

seanhynes · 06-12-2013 07:36PM

Benfica v Arouca,Benfica shud be looking to wrap this one up early with their big champ lge game v Madrid next week.Cardozo is injured, so their main attacker will be Lima hes evens anytime scorer,hes got 4 in 9 appearances this year

discombobulate · 06-12-2013 07:38PM

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Is Remy out?

No I mean Newcastle getting beat 3 nil by a Swansea team you would think would be shy of goals with Michu and Bony out. A lot of the reasoning behind Newcastle being a good bet is that Rooney and RVP are out and that reasoning didn't work out mid-week.

I'd say Hernandez will be keen to impress. United also need to bounce back. I actually think their decent value for the win but will likely avoid with any of my bigger bets. (Liverpool fan by the way so would love to see them beaten!)

Lasagna Diarra · 06-12-2013 09:19PM

Barcelona: Pinto; Bartra, Puyol, Adriano, Jordi Alba; Song,Sergi Roberto, Busquets; Cesc, Pedro y Alexis

stronger team than I thought

markc91 · 06-12-2013 09:21PM

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Barcelona: Pinto; Bartra, Puyol, Adriano, Jordi Alba; Song,Sergi Roberto, Busquets; Cesc, Pedro y Alexis

stronger team than I thought

Win to 0 19/20 on bwin is what im on

discombobulate · 06-12-2013 09:38PM

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Barcelona: Pinto; Bartra, Puyol, Adriano, Jordi Alba; Song,Sergi Roberto, Busquets; Cesc, Pedro y Alexis

stronger team than I thought

Have backed them on the first half -1 Asian handicap at 1.85

magherakid · 06-12-2013 09:49PM

paulb06 wrote: »

Anyone know what team Barca are likely to put out tonight v Cartagena in the cup? They're 1/8, but 1st half over 1.5 is appealing at just over evens, they like to put teams away early and 4 out of 5 of Barcelona's games have seen over 1.5 1st half.

Edit, price just dropped to below evens now.

Looks a good bet I've took Barca over 1.5 FH goals 6/5 strong enough team out

Copper_pipe · 06-12-2013 09:53PM

discombobulate wrote: »

Have backed them on the first half -1 Asian handicap at 1.85

Followed

mailburner · 06-12-2013 09:53PM

barca -1 first half hcap at 8/5 for me (365)
just hope there's no complacency early on

Radonman · 06-12-2013 09:59PM

mailburner wrote: »

barca -1 first half hcap at 8/5 for me (365)
just hope there's no complacency early on

Penalty to be taken in this game nearly 3/1 on betfair - Barcalona hopefully to cause loads of bother

Avfctom · 06-12-2013 10:40PM

Can't pick a bastard thing right now time for a break

The Football Tips Thread V

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