Numbers up Gerry

Happyman42 · 07-11-2013 02:08PM

awec wrote: »

Admitted membership of the IRA? Not a lot - McGuinness did ok with that one around his neck.

Would that not make it more likely that he is telling the truth then, why if it would cause him almost no damage would he not have admitted to it?

Admitted ordering the murder of Jean McConville? Who knows.

This is the one that could cause the collapse of the peace process imo, so I am conflicted on it. If he did order it then he should be answerable, but I wonder if him paying for it personally would be worth the consequences. One of those ' for the greater good' conundrums that occur in world and Irish history, philosophically similar to the decision to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

K-9 · 07-11-2013 04:33PM

golfball37 wrote: »

He never led in any poll except an online one. It was Norris then Michael D, then Gallagher who lead in all published polls.

Yeah, was getting the online ones mixed up that Norris and McGuinness won.

McGuinness had 19% in opinion polls at his peak, got 13.7% in the election. So, there was no surge in his support when he came under attack for his past whatsoever, which was the point I was making.

Republicans tend to be way over represented online, explains a big part of threads like these.

nacho libre · 07-11-2013 04:49PM

Even if Gerry Adams is guilty and wanted to confess, he can't. I doubt British Intelligence are all that keen for him to spill the beans either.
Enda Kenny and others must know that if Adam is guilty of ordering her killing, he can't just put his hands up in the air and say fair play, Enda, you got me, i did it.
So you would have to think people are just playing politics, and not really thinking of the victims when he is continually asked about this.
unfortunately the bigger picture dictates in this case that justice probably won't be seen to be delivered for the victims, unless at some point in a time a death bed confession is made by whoever ordered her murder.

Happyman42 · 07-11-2013 04:50PM

K-9 wrote: »

Yeah, was getting the online ones mixed up that Norris and McGuinness won.

McGuinness had 19% in opinion polls at his peak, got 13.7% in the election. So, there was no surge in his support when he came under attack for his past whatsoever, which was the point I was making.

Republicans tend to be way over represented online, explains a big part of threads like these.

Funny that, I think it's evident that republicans are far outweighed by others on this thread* in fact I am suprised always by how many Unionists and British post on these threads. I think you are succumbing to a bit of urban mythology (ala Joe Duffy, when his polls go pearshaped) K9.

*particularly Delthedriver if he doesn't watch all those fancy dinners. lunches and brunches.

golfball37 · 07-11-2013 04:58PM

No

K-9 wrote: »

Yeah, was getting the online ones mixed up that Norris and McGuinness won.

McGuinness had 19% in opinion polls at his peak, got 13.7% in the election. So, there was no surge in his support when he came under attack for his past whatsoever, which was the point I was making.

Republicans tend to be way over represented online, explains a big part of threads like these.

Agree completely. The vote % they got in Meath East or for McGuinness is far more representative of an actual or true SF level imo. I don't believe they'll get anywhere near the % mentioned in opinion polls.

K-9 · 07-11-2013 05:01PM

Happyman42 wrote: »

Funny that, I think it's evident that republicans are far outweighed by others on this thread* in fact I am suprised always by how many Unionists and British post on these threads. I think you are succumbing to a bit of urban mythology (ala Joe Duffy, when his polls go pearshaped) K9.

*particularly Delthedriver if he doesn't watch all those fancy dinners. lunches and brunches.

Very few actually defended burying the Disappeared, the majority of the rest of it is a normal N.I. thread with the usual trenches dug from get go.

K-9 · 07-11-2013 05:07PM

golfball37 wrote: »

Agree completely. The vote % they got in Meath East or for McGuinness is far more representative of an actual or true SF level imo. I don't believe they'll get anywhere near the % mentioned in opinion polls.

I think they'll get not far of the 20% or so they are showing in polls, not far of what Labour got last time but SF don't get the same seat dividend because they don't tend to attract transfers in big numbers, or give them for that matter. There was a thread recently here that linked to a piece that worked out the last opinion poll in detail, down to constituencies, think it had SF on about 20 seats.

The Diabolical Monocle · 07-11-2013 05:20PM

4 days now.

0 imprisoned Gerrys.

Happyman42 · 07-11-2013 05:36PM

K-9 wrote: »

the majority of the rest of it is a normal N.I. thread with the usual trenches dug from get go.

Maybe, but not huge numbers of republicans. The point I was making was there is a myth around about hordes of online republicans nefariously trying to sway polls and opinion. It's another convenient fallback.

Iwasfrozen · 07-11-2013 05:37PM

No

The Diabolical Monocle wrote: »

4 days now.

0 imprisoned Gerrys.

I don't have the numbers but I'm sure there are more than 0 imprisoned Gerrys.

delthedriver · 07-11-2013 08:05PM

No

Happyman42 wrote: »

Funny that, I think it's evident that republicans are far outweighed by others on this thread* in fact I am suprised always by how many Unionists and British post on these threads. I think you are succumbing to a bit of urban mythology (ala Joe Duffy, when his polls go pearshaped) K9.

*particularly Delthedriver if he doesn't watch all those fancy dinners. lunches and brunches.

delthedriver · 07-11-2013 08:22PM

No

What will happen Adam's lieutenants, McDonald & Doherty when the truth finally catches Gerry out?

The Disappeared, IRA Membership, cover up about his paedophile brother Liam. The noose is well and truly tightening.......

Mary Lou and Pearse who are untainted by the Troubles nonetheless are propping up a lame duck leader.

Pearse has removed Anglo Irish tapes from the Sinn Fein arsenal to use as a smokescreen to protect Adams in the last few days.

Mary Lou, is remaining quiet in the political trenches, perhaps waiting for her moment.?

Have either Mary Lou or Pearse any credibility propping up a leader whose days are numbered ?

More food for thought!:D

bumper234 · 07-11-2013 08:37PM

No

delthedriver wrote: »

What will happen Adam's lieutenants, McDonald & Doherty when the truth finally catches Gerry out?

The Disappeared, IRA Membership, cover up about his paedophile brother Liam. The noose is well and truly tightening.......

Mary Lou and Pearse who are untainted by the Troubles nonetheless are propping up a lame duck leader.

Pearse has removed Anglo Irish tapes from the Sinn Fein arsenal to use as a smokescreen to protect Adams in the last few days.

Mary Lou, is remaining quiet in the political trenches, perhaps waiting for her moment.?

Have either Mary Lou or Pearse any credibility propping up a leader whose days are numbered ?

More food for thought!:D

Haley Joel Osment?

delthedriver · 07-11-2013 08:41PM

No

bumper234 wrote: »

Haley Joel Osment?

Crooked Jack · 07-11-2013 08:48PM

delthedriver wrote: »

What will happen Adam's lieutenants, McDonald & Doherty when the truth finally catches Gerry out?

The Disappeared, IRA Membership, cover up about his paedophile brother Liam. The noose is well and truly tightening.......

Mary Lou and Pearse who are untainted by the Troubles nonetheless are propping up a lame duck leader.

Pearse has removed Anglo Irish tapes from the Sinn Fein arsenal to use as a smokescreen to protect Adams in the last few days.

Mary Lou, is remaining quiet in the political trenches, perhaps waiting for her moment.?

Have either Mary Lou or Pearse any credibility propping up a leader whose days are numbered ?

More food for thought!:D

food for thought? It read more like wishful thinking

delthedriver · 07-11-2013 08:56PM

No

Crooked Jack wrote: »

food for thought? It read more like wishful thinking

Are McDonald & Doherty willing to risk their political careers by being associated with Adams?

Adams is the fly in the ointment for SF, sure he has his hard core followers, ML & P are ambitious and bright politicians. Which of them will pull the plug?

They cannot afford to have their reputations sullied by association with Adams.

Conveniently Gerry is in the US this week............????? Time is running out!

Tramps Like Us · 07-11-2013 09:09PM

delthedriver wrote: »

Are McDonald & Doherty willing to risk their political careers by being associated with Adams?

Adams is the fly in the ointment for SF, sure he has his hard core followers, ML & P are ambitious and bright politicians. Which of them will pull the plug?

They cannot afford to have their reputations sullied by association with Adams.

Conveniently Gerry is in the US this week............????? Time is running out!

Adams goes to the US this time every year to meet with Irish America.

If you think Mary Lou or Doherty are in any way ashamed of Adam or the IRA in general you are mistaken

The furore over the IRA stuff is far less than it ever was

Happyman42 · 07-11-2013 09:15PM

Tramps Like Us wrote: »

Adams goes to the US this time every year to meet with Irish America.

If you think Mary Lou or Doherty are in any way ashamed of Adam or the IRA in general you are mistaken

The furore over the IRA stuff is far less than it ever was

Indeed, not one single comment on follow-up current affairs programmes or indeed the venerable Joe Duffy since the programme aired.
Savaged by a dead sheep, methinks.

LordSutch · 07-11-2013 09:19PM

No

Maybe Mary Lou & Pearse Doherty could do a double act as heads of SF, 'a la' O'Neill & Keane in the FAI

)

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70864000/jpg/_70864805_oneill_keane_getty2.jpg

Gee Bag · 07-11-2013 09:20PM

Happyman42 wrote: »

Indeed, not one single comment on follow-up current affairs programmes or indeed the venerable Joe Duffy since the programme aired.
Savaged by a dead sheep, methinks.

It was mentioned on Sean O'Rourke's programme the other morning when he interviewed Tony Blair and Diarmuid Ferriter discussed it with Pat Kenny this morning on Newstalk

K-9 · 07-11-2013 09:20PM

Happyman42 wrote: »

Maybe, but not huge numbers of republicans. The point I was making was there is a myth around about hordes of online republicans nefariously trying to sway polls and opinion. It's another convenient fallback.

SF tend to have a younger support base, FF & FG not so much, that isn't a fallback, it's pretty much fact based on online polls and Irish forums.

LordSutch · 07-11-2013 09:22PM

No

K-9 wrote: »

SF tend to have a younger support base, FF & FG not so much, that isn't a fallback, it's pretty much fact based on online polls and Irish forums.

Younger, male, working class support, is the usual identity I hear mentioned in relation to their support base in the ROI.

Happyman42 · 07-11-2013 09:29PM

Gee Bag wrote: »

It was mentioned on Sean O'Rourke's programme the other morning when he interviewed Tony Blair and Diarmuid Ferriter discussed it with Pat Kenny this morning on Newstalk

Maybe so, wasn't tuned into the Blair interview (can't listen to the simpering war crim) but it certainly didn't provoke the outrage it was clearly designed to provoke.

Gee Bag · 07-11-2013 09:34PM

Happyman42 wrote: »

Maybe so, wasn't tuned into the Blair interview (can't listen to the simpering war crim) but it certainly didn't provoke the outrage it was clearly designed to provoke.

The Newstalk interview with Diarmuid Ferriter was about the history of Sinn Fein and was pretty good.

If you listen to the full programme there's a 45 minute interview (interrogation if you prefer) about your favourite TV show with Stuart Carolan!

MadYaker · 07-11-2013 10:22PM

No

LordSutch wrote: »

Younger, male, working class support, is the usual identity I hear mentioned in relation to their support base in the ROI.

I though most young working class males couldn't care less about politics?

Iwasfrozen · 07-11-2013 10:35PM

No

MadYaker wrote: »

I though most young working class males couldn't care less about politics?

They don't vote, that's why SF tend to do better in opinion polls than elections.

Tramps Like Us · 08-11-2013 01:12AM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

They don't vote, that's why SF tend to do better in opinion polls than elections.

Traditionally it has been the opposite

Rabelais · 08-11-2013 01:53AM

No

Tramps Like Us wrote: »

Traditionally it has been the opposite

No it hasn't. SF polled in the late teens before the last GE. They had a great election based on FF being toxic. Labour are taking the traditional electoral hammering as the junior partner in Government. There will be a RTE documentary in 2016 involving former Labour members discussing where it all went wrong. They will be back, as core Labour support always does. We cannot exist without a functioning public service.

SF core voters tend not to transfer in great numbers to the establishment parties. But the same is reciprocated amongst FG/Labour/, and, to a lesser extent, FF voters. It's the reason why SF have moderated their economic policies. Looking for the 'soft' FF vote a second time.

Barring a major social or economic crisis, it is starting to look like FG will still be the major party in a coalition government involving Labour. Worst case scenario involves a few independents. A renewed FF will form the rump of the opposition, with SF standing proud with 3 or 4 seat gains.

More if Adams was to stand aside. Liability at the moment.

The Diabolical Monocle · 08-11-2013 02:12AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by delthedriver View Post
What will happen Adam's lieutenants, McDonald & Doherty when the truth finally catches Gerry out?

The Disappeared, IRA Membership, cover up about his paedophile brother Liam. The noose is well and truly tightening.......

Mary Lou and Pearse who are untainted by the Troubles nonetheless are propping up a lame duck leader.

Pearse has removed Anglo Irish tapes from the Sinn Fein arsenal to use as a smokescreen to protect Adams in the last few days.

Mary Lou, is remaining quiet in the political trenches, perhaps waiting for her moment.?

Have either Mary Lou or Pearse any credibility propping up a leader whose days are numbered ?

More food for thought!

Crooked Jack wrote: »

food for thought? It read more like wishful thinking

5 day old food for thought now.

Something tells me Del and d1stant et al won't be getting their Christmas wish any time soon.
In the meantime ... 'rabble rabble rabble'.

Fred Swanson · 08-11-2013 02:19AM

No

This post has been deleted.

Numbers up Gerry

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