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BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

1…5455575960…73

Comments

  • #2802
    caoty
    Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭caoty


    Perhaps Enda should start trading AIB shares to make some money for the taxpayers.
    daveirl wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.


  • #2803
    ranger4
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,370 ✭✭✭ranger4


    BKIR daily chart is over heated.

    It had a lovely break out when it bounced off the 50dma with a MACD cross over,but that move looks close to exhaustion now with the last two candlesticks showing a bearish piercing formation and RSI into over bought and MACD now looks to be on the verge of a turn down.

    At 0.26 it is at the top of its channel but a break through would take it to c. 0.30p where there is historic horizontal resistance.


  • #2804
    mickman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭mickman


    ranger4 wrote: »
    BKIR daily chart is over heated.

    It had a lovely break out when it bounced off the 50dma with a MACD cross over,but that move looks close to exhaustion now with the last two candlesticks showing a bearish piercing formation and RSI into over bought and MACD now looks to be on the verge of a turn down.

    At 0.26 it is at the top of its channel but a break through would take it to c. 0.30p where there is historic horizontal resistance.

    techy nonsense


  • #2805
    Sonnenblumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,834 ✭✭✭Sonnenblumen


    ranger4 wrote: »
    BKIR daily chart is over heated.

    It had a lovely break out when it bounced off the 50dma with a MACD cross over,but that move looks close to exhaustion now with the last two candlesticks showing a bearish piercing formation and RSI into over bought and MACD now looks to be on the verge of a turn down.

    At 0.26 it is at the top of its channel but a break through would take it to c. 0.30p where there is historic horizontal resistance.

    Reads more like a Black Hawk pilot razzle dazzle, any chance you could elaborate in a more communicative and meaningful way?

    BTW, if I understand you correctly, I think you are off mark and will be proven so shortly. I would love to know what 'historical horizontal resistance' means? A great example of when not to use bull**** jargon:o


  • #2806
    caoty
    Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭caoty


    What charting service/page do you use?
    ranger4 wrote: »
    BKIR daily chart is over heated.

    It had a lovely break out when it bounced off the 50dma with a MACD cross over,but that move looks close to exhaustion now with the last two candlesticks showing a bearish piercing formation and RSI into over bought and MACD now looks to be on the verge of a turn down.

    At 0.26 it is at the top of its channel but a break through would take it to c. 0.30p where there is historic horizontal resistance.


  • #2807
    Blackjack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,626 ✭✭✭Blackjack


    ranger4 wrote: »
    BKIR daily chart is over heated.

    It had a lovely break out when it bounced off the 50dma with a MACD cross over,but that move looks close to exhaustion now with the last two candlesticks showing a bearish piercing formation and RSI into over bought and MACD now looks to be on the verge of a turn down.

    At 0.26 it is at the top of its channel but a break through would take it to c. 0.30p where there is historic horizontal resistance.

    go on - and the rest

    "so it may well get stuck around that area for quite some time.but I would expect a period of consolidation/slight retrace before that happens.

    Don't really know the ins and outs of the 1.8 bln scenario so my thoughts are based on charts only.

    Mr Bluesky"

    posted here:
    http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?page=6&ShareTicker=LLOY
    Sat 15:30

    seems to be in response to:
    ranger4
    Posts: 7,515
    Off Topic
    Opinion: No Opinion
    Price: 76.50
    mr_BlueskySat 14:32Care to share your analysis with BKIR, Recent rally seemed to take a breather friday but could be consolidating before going higher however with uncertainty with posible 1.8 billion rights issue to buyback Govs Pref shares any upside could be limited before details announced.


  • #2808
    ranger4
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,370 ✭✭✭ranger4


    caoty wrote: »
    What charting service/page do you use?

    Find Google finance and www.4-traders.com offer good info.


  • #2809
    ranger4
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,370 ✭✭✭ranger4


    Blackjack wrote: »
    go on - and the rest

    "so it may well get stuck around that area for quite some time.but I would expect a period of consolidation/slight retrace before that happens.

    Don't really know the ins and outs of the 1.8 bln scenario so my thoughts are based on charts only.

    Mr Bluesky"

    posted here:
    http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?page=6&ShareTicker=LLOY
    Sat 15:30

    seems to be in response to:
    ranger4
    Posts: 7,515
    Off Topic
    Opinion: No Opinion
    Price: 76.50
    mr_BlueskySat 14:32Care to share your analysis with BKIR, Recent rally seemed to take a breather friday but could be consolidating before going higher however with uncertainty with posible 1.8 billion rights issue to buyback Govs Pref shares any upside could be limited before details announced.

    Thanks for posting, I value Mr Blueskys TA opinion.


  • #2810
    caoty
    Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭caoty


    Very good, tanks.
    ranger4 wrote: »
    Find Google finance and www.4-traders.com offer good info.


  • #2811
    Blackjack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,626 ✭✭✭Blackjack


    ranger4 wrote: »
    Thanks for posting, I value Mr Blueskys TA opinion.
    Clearly.
    Might be more respectful if you gave him the credit for the technical analysis, rather than posting it under your own handle.


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  • #2812
    sbsquarepants
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,812 ✭✭✭✭sbsquarepants


    ranger4 wrote: »
    .

    At 0.26 it is at the top of its channel but a break through would take it to c. 0.30p where there is historic horizontal resistance.

    What do you mean by horizontal resistance?


  • #2813
    dealhunter1985
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 523 ✭✭✭dealhunter1985


    Blackjack wrote: »
    Clearly.
    Might be more respectful if you gave him the credit for the technical analysis, rather than posting it under your own handle.


    LOL.
    Ranger cracks me up :)
    And has done for a long time


  • #2814
    Jimmy Bottles
    Registered Users Posts: 349 ✭✭Jimmy Bottles


    BOI overvalued at 26c per share ?

    I've been told that 77c per share would bring its market capitalisation right back to where it was before the bubble burst. Any truth in this as 77c is a lot lower than I expected.


  • #2815
    dealhunter1985
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 523 ✭✭✭dealhunter1985


    yahoo finance saying BKIR closed @ .256
    Goole finance saying .264

    whats that about?


  • #2816
    Thargor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,999 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Google is abysmal when it comes to closing prices a lot of the time, been that way for ages no idea why, they seem to get confused by UTs and late reported trades etc.


  • #2817
    Sonnenblumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,834 ✭✭✭Sonnenblumen


    Thargor wrote: »
    Google is abysmal when it comes to closing prices a lot of the time, been that way for ages no idea why, they seem to get confused by UTs and late reported trades etc.

    The Davy site is usually on the money: http://www.davy.ie/TopLevel?page=iseqprices :D


  • #2818
    Thanos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭Thanos


    Shurwhynot wrote: »
    What affect will this rights issue have on share price?

    Have been speculating on whether to purchase BOI shares now for a couple of months, and have only seen them rise.

    Would I be better off waiting until after the rights issue? I realise that there is no guarantee that these shares will continue to rise, but realistically they aren't going to plummet either.

    Would also like to know this. Once a rights issue has been done, does that mean the shares are diluted and so the price will drop?

    If you buy now, when the rights issues comes you get a chance to buy more (right?) but at the same price or at a lower price?


  • #2819
    gordongekko
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭gordongekko


    Thanos wrote: »
    Would also like to know this. Once a rights issue has been done, does that mean the shares are diluted and so the price will drop?

    If you buy now, when the rights issues comes you get a chance to buy more (right?) but at the same price or at a lower price?

    In theory the basics are if company A has 1million shares at €1 and issues 100000 shares then all things being equal the company should still be worth €1 million so the share price should drop to reflect that.

    However shares don't always act like that. Brokers may upgrade forecasts, increased liquidity,news flow, increased profits, general buying etc can move the price up or down. So to answer your question. Nobody knows the answer for sure.

    If you are a shareholder and their is a rights issue its normal for existing shareholders to be offered shares. The price they are issued at is up to the brokers.

    There has been no announcement so there is no way of knowing what will happen. They could always just find other ways of raising the funds.


  • #2820
    love_struck
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16 ✭love_struck


    I cant make sense of bank of Ireland at this stage , I see it as a complete punt , how do you honestly value such a stock

    I pulled out a few weeks ago and put my money in glanbia instead , working out so far and the company actually makes money too


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  • #2821
    Jimmy Bottles
    Registered Users Posts: 349 ✭✭Jimmy Bottles


    love_struck wrote: »
    I cant make sense of bank of Ireland at this stage , I see it as a complete punt , how do you honestly value such a stock

    I pulled out a few weeks ago and put my money in glanbia instead , working out so far and the company actually makes money too

    Up 4% today. I'm guessing profits and then an announcement of dividend will be the kicker to finally get the share price moving ?


  • #2822
    Sonnenblumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,834 ✭✭✭Sonnenblumen


    Jimmy Bottles wrote: »
    Up 4% today. I'm guessing profits and then an announcement of dividend will be the kicker to finally get the share price moving ?

    I wouldn't ignore the pending Rights Issue, the stronger the market/current SP price the more attractive they can make the Rights Issue. I'd expect a correction after the Right's Issue and it would be a good time to get in if you're not onboard already.

    Too early to talk about BoI paying a divi, but that would also give a boost to SP. Foreign banks leaving Irl is also good news for the SP.


  • #2823
    Scortho
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,876 ✭✭✭Scortho


    Jimmy Bottles wrote: »
    Up 4% today. I'm guessing profits and then an announcement of dividend will be the kicker to finally get the share price moving ?

    Share price moving?
    It's up 200 % since August 2012


  • #2824
    Jimmy Bottles
    Registered Users Posts: 349 ✭✭Jimmy Bottles


    I would have thought that a dividend from BOI would be the really big ice breaker for one reason.

    When dividend starts to get paid again, low to medium risk pensions and investments funds will jump in their again. They can't touch those BOI share at the moment for lack of a dividend.


  • #2825
    love_struck
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16 ✭love_struck


    Jimmy Bottles wrote: »
    I would have thought that a dividend from BOI would be the really big ice breaker for one reason.

    When dividend starts to get paid again, low to medium risk pensions and investments funds will jump in their again. They can't touch those BOI share at the moment for lack of a dividend.


    id be amazed if a dividend is reinstated by this time next year


  • #2826
    gordongekko
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭gordongekko


    love_struck wrote: »
    id be amazed if a dividend is reinstated by this time next year

    Dividend payments
    BOI is also barred from making dividend payments until the end of 2015, as long as the preference shares remain unredeemed. Andrew Keating, the bank’s chief financial officer, said the payment of dividends is “a factor” in its thinking as it formulates a preference share strategy.


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  • #2827
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    Sonnenblumen wrote: »
    I wouldn't ignore the pending Rights Issue, the stronger the market/current SP price the more attractive they can make the Rights Issue. I'd expect a correction after the Right's Issue and it would be a good time to get in if you're not onboard already.

    Too early to talk about BoI paying a divi, but that would also give a boost to SP. Foreign banks leaving Irl is also good news for the SP.

    For me, granted I am a relative novice in shares - I don't see the Rights Issue as an issue at all, simply because everyone is aware of the possibility of it arising, and how much is required to be raised, i.e. there's no real uncertainty regarding it.

    I expect it's already factored into the share price in some sense, and it is of course a worst case scenario - in that the money can be, and may be raised elsewhere.

    On top of that, having regard to what appears to be a steady sustained rise in the share price, any effect of the Rights Issue on the share value - should it actually arise - could just be swallowed up and negated in a day or two. Or am I missing something?


  • #2828
    ranger4
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,370 ✭✭✭ranger4


    Rights issue to buy Govs prefs could be avoided altogether,

    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bois-shares-rise-43pc-on-clear-path-to-share-sale-29717316.html


  • #2829
    mickman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭mickman


    sold out yesterday at a 90% gain .

    will monitor and prob re - enter after a correction


  • #2830
    lucky john
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    "Any lingering fears of a large-scale rights issue should now be finally set aside, though an equity placing does remain a possibility. Our assumption is that the 25% principal step-up feature (€450m higher replacement cost) of the instruments will be removed as part of any resale. Although still early, we also note the resale/retirement also lifts the EC-imposed dividend restrictions"

    From davy's this morning. Its the only bit of their comment I really understood.


  • #2831
    mickman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭mickman


    lots of talk about BOI at the moment and lots of people jumping on the band wagon. looking a little frothy to me


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  • #2832
    Scortho
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,876 ✭✭✭Scortho


    mickman wrote: »
    sold out yesterday at a 90% gain .

    will monitor and prob re - enter after a correction

    Well done on the gains man. Nothing wrong with those.:)


  • #2833
    mickman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭mickman


    Scortho wrote: »
    Well done on the gains man. Nothing wrong with those.:)


    Thanks . sweet gains indeed.


  • #2834
    AP_MAN
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭AP_MAN


    as per current SP, 30K shares in issue, the market cap is 8b, is that realistic value ?


  • #2835
    Scortho
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,876 ✭✭✭Scortho


    AP_MAN wrote: »
    as per current SP, 30K shares in issue, the market cap is 8b, is that realistic value ?

    As far as I remember they were worth 18 bn before the crash.

    To me it isn't a realistic value (which was why I got out) but to others it might be.
    I was happy with my gains though....ain't happy with the CGT I have to give revenue however:mad:


  • #2836
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    AP_MAN wrote: »
    as per current SP, 30K shares in issue, the market cap is 8b, is that realistic value ?

    Personally I believe €8 bn value for a Strategic National Bank (with extensive existing infrastructure/client base/loan books) that is making profit - where all other banks in the country are not, is peanuts.

    Just to put that figure in context - It wasn't too long ago the government nearly spent €1 bn on building a National Stadium, and likewise there have been numerous examples of spending in the hundreds of millions of euros on projects that were never even implemented.

    The country may still be far "worse off" (some would argue its better off) than in 2007, but apart from the whale of a public sector we're dragging with us, the private sector - particularly multi-national services and industries are still here, and performing well.

    Property prices are rising (a little too quickly some might say) in Dublin, and there is signs of tenative recovery throughout the country.

    There's still the lingering mortgage crisis, but all-in-all the banks have dealt with that fairly well from a commercial perspective by not accepting wholesale right-downs and therefore minimising losses and opportunist defaulters.


  • #2837
    Value Hunter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 337 ✭✭Value Hunter


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    Personally I believe €8 bn value for a Strategic National Bank (with extensive existing infrastructure/client base/loan books) that is making profit - where all other banks in the country are not, is peanuts.

    Just to put that figure in context - It wasn't too long ago the government nearly spent €1 bn on building a National Stadium, and likewise there have been numerous examples of spending in the hundreds of millions of euros on projects that were never even implemented.

    The country may still be far "worse off" (some would argue its better off) than in 2007, but apart from the whale of a public sector we're dragging with us, the private sector - particularly multi-national services and industries are still here, and performing well.

    Property prices are rising (a little too quickly some might say) in Dublin, and there is signs of tenative recovery throughout the country.

    There's still the lingering mortgage crisis, but all-in-all the banks have dealt with that fairly well from a commercial perspective by not accepting wholesale right-downs and therefore minimising losses and opportunist defaulters.

    Its not making profit

    'Strategic National Bank' - In a tiny country with a flat economy at best.

    What does Government building projects have to do with valuing a business??

    If you think 8 Billion is peanuts, i'd love to hear what you think they are actually worth?


  • #2838
    mickman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭mickman


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    Personally I believe €8 bn value for a Strategic National Bank (with extensive existing infrastructure/client base/loan books) that is making profit - where all other banks in the country are not, is peanuts.

    Just to put that figure in context - It wasn't too long ago the government nearly spent €1 bn on building a National Stadium, and likewise there have been numerous examples of spending in the hundreds of millions of euros on projects that were never even implemented.

    The country may still be far "worse off" (some would argue its better off) than in 2007, but apart from the whale of a public sector we're dragging with us, the private sector - particularly multi-national services and industries are still here, and performing well.

    Property prices are rising (a little too quickly some might say) in Dublin, and there is signs of tenative recovery throughout the country.

    There's still the lingering mortgage crisis, but all-in-all the banks have dealt with that fairly well from a commercial perspective by not accepting wholesale right-downs and therefore minimising losses and opportunist defaulters.


    They lost 500 million last results, they are not making a cent profit! They hope to turn profitable next year and then maybe bring back some kind of dividend in 2015

    its valued at 1/3 of what it was during the boom, if it hits 60 cent then its value will equal what it was during the boom. With the bank not making any money, i cant see how its under valued


  • #2839
    Scortho
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,876 ✭✭✭Scortho


    mickman wrote: »
    They lost 500 million last results, they are not making a cent profit! They hope to turn profitable next year and then maybe bring back some kind of dividend in 2015

    its valued at 1/3 of what it was during the boom, if it hits 60 cent then its value will equal what it was during the boom. With the bank not making any money, i cant see how its under valued

    They need eu approval to pay a dividend and so far this is blocked for 2015 and beyond.
    Part of the agreement for it to keep its insurance arm I think.


  • #2840
    Jimmy Bottles
    Registered Users Posts: 349 ✭✭Jimmy Bottles


    mickman wrote: »
    They lost 500 million last results, they are not making a cent profit! They hope to turn profitable next year and then maybe bring back some kind of dividend in 2015

    its valued at 1/3 of what it was during the boom, if it hits 60 cent then its value will equal what it was during the boom. With the bank not making any money, i cant see how its under valued

    I've read a boom valuation would equate to 77c per share in todays shares.

    There are a few reasons IMO why BOI could be worth more.

    1. Less players in the Irish market
    2. AIB, their main competitor are in a much worse position that BOI. AIB are nowhere near turning a profit.


  • #2841
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    Value Hunter wrote: »
    Its not making profit

    'Strategic National Bank' - In a tiny country with a flat economy at best.

    What does Government building projects have to do with valuing a business??

    If you think 8 Billion is peanuts, i'd love to hear what you think they are actually worth?

    1. All expectations are that it will report a profit either this quarter or next... that's a far better position than any other Irish Bank, and indeed many other Global Banks, and a fair prediction based on current and previous data.

    2. Yes it is a Strategic National Bank. Ireland is geographically small yes, but the Economy may be flat at present but it won't remain that way for long, all indications are that the economy is improving and we are doing much better than many other Countries, we have massive Global Companies here Apple, Amazon, IBM, etc.

    3. As my post clearly indicates - Government spending has nothing to do with valuing banks, the example was to show the true modern context of what 8 bn really amounts to - about 8 (overpriced) national stadiums, 8 bn seems like a scarily large number its not - were it the case that we were in a period of sustained Economic Growth of two to three years then 2 times, 3 times or even 4 times that value would not seem disproportionate for a primary National Bank in a Country such as ours.

    4. BOI is in my personal view waaaay undervalued at present - "Peanuts" for a National Bank that's performing well and heading into a recovering economy with no competition and massive market share.

    I accept you are entitled to your views, and mine are, as I stated at the beginning of my previous message just mine, but if you're going to outright disagree I'd prefer if you added a little more than effectively saying "You're having a laugh"


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  • #2842
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    Jimmy Bottles wrote: »
    I've read a boom valuation would equate to 77c per share in todays shares.

    There are a few reasons IMO why BOI could be worth more.

    1. Less players in the Irish market
    2. AIB, their main competitor are in a much worse position that BOI. AIB are nowhere near turning a profit.

    Yes Jimmy I agree with you there.

    I actually made much the same points as you in this previous post:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=86101891

    However it seems since then the banking landscape in Ireland has changed dramatically with the exit of more competition - all which certainly improves BOI's overall position.


  • #2843
    gordongekko
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭gordongekko


    is the strategic national bank not called nama.

    Boi is a loss making small regional bank on the outskirts of Europe. Why anyone would buy them at over the price of Mr. Ross is beyond me.


  • #2844
    wenxue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭wenxue


    I spend 20000e bought BOI today,
    Hope get better result。


  • #2845
    dharn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,574 ✭✭✭dharn


    wenxue wrote: »
    I spend 20000e bought BOI today,
    Hope get better result。

    You are a brave man


  • #2846
    Value Hunter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 337 ✭✭Value Hunter


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    I accept you are entitled to your views, and mine are, as I stated at the beginning of my previous message just mine, but if you're going to outright disagree I'd prefer if you added a little more than effectively saying "You're having a laugh"

    Fair enough, i'll explain my viewpoint in greater detail

    1. This is not a business in growth/recovery mode. Operating income has declined every single year since 2010. Its on track to be 40% lower for 2013 than in 2010. With revenue constantly declining alongside it, this is not a business where profits will grow.

    2. BOI have recorded impairment charges of €12.38 Billion since 2010. We all know bad loans haven't begun to be tackled properly yet.

    My view is if they've recorded over a €12 Billion loss so far, who knows how high it can go when their forced to actually tackle defaulting mortgages.

    Would €15 - €20 Billion be beyond the realms of possibility? More?

    Even a €5 Billion impairment charge will likely devastate the share price

    3. The current improvement in performance has almost exclusively being attributed to cost cutting/branch closure and (credit where its due) to improving the cost of interest expense.

    Both these measure have limitation which are almost reaching saturation point.

    4. Its current valuation is massively overvalued. People buying at this level are purely speculating. Yes they make make a 50% return in 3 months. Hurricane Fly might also make me a 50% return in 10 minutes at Cheltenham next year. Doesn't make it an investment.

    5. The use of tax credits from their massive losses will run out eventually. This will adds hundreds of millions to their costs every year.

    6. Why would you invest in BOI? There is so much better options out there. Royal Bank of Canada has a 4% dividend, trades at just 12 times earnings and has revenue growing around 4% and profit growing around 15%.

    I think BOI management have been very clever. They've fought tooth and nail to avoid acknowledging write downs. This has given them time to implement cost cutting and to improve their interest margins. This will allow them to return to a very small amount of profitability within a year, giving the false impression of a recovery.

    Believe me, this return to profitability will be very short lived. Once write downs start to occur, profitability is going to be a distant memory and the share price is going to get hammered.


  • #2847
    mickman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭mickman


    A lot of this huge worldwide stock rally has been created from massive cost cutting by companies rather than growth

    Those situations usually end in tears


  • #2848
    wenxue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭wenxue


    dharn wrote: »
    You are a brave man

    hha
    Just think Ireland will better , if lost just lost it.


  • #2849
    dharn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,574 ✭✭✭dharn


    wenxue wrote: »
    hha
    Just think Ireland will better , if lost just lost it.

    If lost, just lost it ? Must be great to have 20 grand that you would not care abou losing


  • #2850
    euroboom13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭euroboom13


    Value Hunter wrote: »
    Fair enough, i'll explain my viewpoint in greater detail

    1. This is not a business in growth/recovery mode. Operating income has declined every single year since 2010. Its on track to be 40% lower for 2013 than in 2010. With revenue constantly declining alongside it, this is not a business where profits will grow.

    2. BOI have recorded impairment charges of €12.38 Billion since 2010. We all know bad loans haven't begun to be tackled properly yet.

    My view is if they've recorded over a €12 Billion loss so far, who knows how high it can go when their forced to actually tackle defaulting mortgages.

    Would €15 - €20 Billion be beyond the realms of possibility? More?

    Even a €5 Billion impairment charge will likely devastate the share price

    3. The current improvement in performance has almost exclusively being attributed to cost cutting/branch closure and (credit where its due) to improving the cost of interest expense.

    Both these measure have limitation which are almost reaching saturation point.

    4. Its current valuation is massively overvalued. People buying at this level are purely speculating. Yes they make make a 50% return in 3 months. Hurricane Fly might also make me a 50% return in 10 minutes at Cheltenham next year. Doesn't make it an investment.

    5. The use of tax credits from their massive losses will run out eventually. This will adds hundreds of millions to their costs every year.

    6. Why would you invest in BOI? There is so much better options out there. Royal Bank of Canada has a 4% dividend, trades at just 12 times earnings and has revenue growing around 4% and profit growing around 15%.

    I think BOI management have been very clever. They've fought tooth and nail to avoid acknowledging write downs. This has given them time to implement cost cutting and to improve their interest margins. This will allow them to return to a very small amount of profitability within a year, giving the false impression of a recovery.

    Believe me, this return to profitability will be very short lived. Once write downs start to occur, profitability is going to be a distant memory and the share price is going to get hammered.

    If we start getting growth, every negative item you have mention, starts to improve.

    In 2005/6/7 everyone was putting there ssia savings(robbbed by guru`s) in to boi/aib shares on the pretence of a well analysed/ blue chipped/ dividend paying/ stock,tipped as a sure investment(Like bank of canada/which has a property boom now by the way).


    ALL INVESTING IS GAMBLING and in this world, the surething is the high risk, not the outsider.

    ps. Tax credits only run out when profit surpasses them!hows that negative ?


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  • #2851
    caoty
    Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭caoty


    No.5 doesn't make any sense, imho.
    Value Hunter wrote: »
    Fair enough, i'll explain my viewpoint in greater detail

    1. This is not a business in growth/recovery mode. Operating income has declined every single year since 2010. Its on track to be 40% lower for 2013 than in 2010. With revenue constantly declining alongside it, this is not a business where profits will grow.

    2. BOI have recorded impairment charges of €12.38 Billion since 2010. We all know bad loans haven't begun to be tackled properly yet.

    My view is if they've recorded over a €12 Billion loss so far, who knows how high it can go when their forced to actually tackle defaulting mortgages.

    Would €15 - €20 Billion be beyond the realms of possibility? More?

    Even a €5 Billion impairment charge will likely devastate the share price

    3. The current improvement in performance has almost exclusively being attributed to cost cutting/branch closure and (credit where its due) to improving the cost of interest expense.

    Both these measure have limitation which are almost reaching saturation point.

    4. Its current valuation is massively overvalued. People buying at this level are purely speculating. Yes they make make a 50% return in 3 months. Hurricane Fly might also make me a 50% return in 10 minutes at Cheltenham next year. Doesn't make it an investment.

    5. The use of tax credits from their massive losses will run out eventually. This will adds hundreds of millions to their costs every year.

    6. Why would you invest in BOI? There is so much better options out there. Royal Bank of Canada has a 4% dividend, trades at just 12 times earnings and has revenue growing around 4% and profit growing around 15%.

    I think BOI management have been very clever. They've fought tooth and nail to avoid acknowledging write downs. This has given them time to implement cost cutting and to improve their interest margins. This will allow them to return to a very small amount of profitability within a year, giving the false impression of a recovery.

    Believe me, this return to profitability will be very short lived. Once write downs start to occur, profitability is going to be a distant memory and the share price is going to get hammered.


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