Aussie dollar falling

aido79 · 19-09-2013 1:24pm

the flananator wrote: »

Its reached the golden .70

Time to cash out, or will it continue to rise?

If it gets to .71 you'll get an extra €10 for every $1000...woohoo

Seriously though unless you have a lot of money small changes in exchange rates aren't going to make a lot of difference.

catbear · 19-09-2013 1:42pm

aido79 wrote: »

If it gets to .71 you'll get an extra €10 for every $1000...woohoo

Seriously though unless you have a lot of money small changes in exchange rates aren't going to make a lot of difference.

Having said that I may be cashing out my super early next year and the difference between .71 and .66 or lower won't be small change.

Nobody wants the Fed job so no change in there. China? Again I say who trusts information out of China other than trade flows at the docks.

Apart from that the only other factor affecting the Aus$ is the domestic debt market and the way that bulls are increasingly becoming bears makes for interesting times ahead.

I don't think it will rain in perth tomorrow.

ifeelill · 19-09-2013 11:19pm

catbear wrote: »

Having said that I may be cashing out my super early next year and the difference between .71 and .66 or lower won't be small change.

Nobody wants the Fed job so no change in there. China? Again I say who trusts information out of China other than trade flows at the docks.

Apart from that the only other factor affecting the Aus$ is the domestic debt market and the way that bulls are increasingly becoming bears makes for interesting times ahead.

I don't think it will rain in perth tomorrow.

what ?

catbear · 20-09-2013 12:24am

ifeelill wrote: »

what ?

I was wrong, there's rain around!

res ipsa · 21-09-2013 5:39am

6/1 odds of a rate cut Tuesday week.
If the RBA is serious about weakening the $AUD it will cut.

sin_city · 21-09-2013 4:15pm

res ipsa wrote: »

6/1 odds of a rate cut Tuesday week.
If the RBA is serious about weakening the $AUD it will cut.

Can't beat a good game of currency wars :eek:

hussey · 18-10-2013 1:23am

finally broke .70 in the last few days!

Legend100 · 18-10-2013 1:50am

yeah bit the bullet and send some savings home this week (got it at 0.70150

i check it continuously on currency fair and there was actually a short time on Wednesday where the rate there was higher than the official bank rate - not sure how that can happen

catbear · 18-10-2013 1:55am

Legend100 wrote: »

i check it continuously on currency fair and there was actually a short time on Wednesday where the rate there was higher than the official bank rate - not sure how that can happen

When you say "official bank rate", do you mean one of the street banks like CBA, NAB?

Legend100 · 18-10-2013 1:56am

catbear wrote: »

When you say "official bank rate", do you mean one of the street banks like CBA, NAB?

market rate from bloomberg

res ipsa · 25-10-2013 9:52am

Legend100 wrote: »

market rate from bloomberg

Back under 70. 69 is the new 70.

hussey · 28-10-2013 5:00am

.69553 grrr

jank · 28-10-2013 7:25am

The AUDUSD is actually very favourable but the euro is gaining strength in line with the recent push of the AUD hence why the .69-70 levels we are seeing lately. All it takes is one bad headline and that will become .73+ in a matter of a weeks.

If you want to be sneaky one could move into USD hold it there and then move it into Euro once there is a bit of a pull back.

ifeelill · 05-11-2013 4:31am

RBA interest rate to remain unchanged at 2.5%

Source: 9 News

sin_city · 05-11-2013 10:59am

There's a lot of talk of the Euro been "eased", basically money printing. If this kicks off the AUD will get stronger again.

the flananator · 06-11-2013 7:23am

Back up over .70

Hoping it climbs up a bit further before my return to the old country next month!

ifeelill · 07-11-2013 4:43am

There is some speculation that QE will be tapered in the US making the USD stronger thereby devaluing the AUD. When this will happen is anyone's guess.

catbear · 07-11-2013 4:56am

It really is a constant will they/won't they?

It suits me for the Aus$ to strengthen, especially if I'm cashing out my super.

sin_city · 07-11-2013 8:33am

ifeelill wrote: »

There is some speculation that QE will be tapered in the US making the USD stronger thereby devaluing the AUD. When this will happen is anyone's guess.

This won't happen. They have to keep buying bonds to keep the rates low so that the US can service its massive debt....hence that is why the US is fcuked.

The USD might get stronger nevertheless because Europe will probably start printing money too soon.

Some people think you can either have Eur or USD, so once one is week the other is strong...or stronger..

Australia raised its debt ceiling from $300 billion to $500 billion very quietly a few weeks ago, so at last the Aussies can get in on the act and start printing too!!! :eek:

It should still be stronger in the future though because nothing has been fixed in Europe or in the US.

US will never taper.

sin_city · 08-11-2013 12:53am

As expected the ECB cut the rate so expect the euro to weaken a little bit more

rightyabe · 08-11-2013 3:31am

So could the $ € hit 0.75?

jank · 08-11-2013 7:17am

I'm waiting about the .75 mark myself.....

res ipsa · 08-11-2013 11:37pm

sin_city wrote: »

As expected the ECB cut the rate so expect the euro to weaken a little bit more

I didn't expect it.

sin_city · 09-11-2013 1:28am

res ipsa wrote: »

I didn't expect it.

Well I did and I predicted in my post in this thread before the cut was made.

Timistry · 22-11-2013 2:32pm

A shocking drop over the last few days

Are we on a slippery slope now or just a temporary drop?

catbear · 23-11-2013 7:30am

Don't know but the last time it dropped i buckled and changed a good chunk, a few weeks later it was back up at .70!

I reckon we'll definitely see a much weaker aus$ next year but in the short term can't say.

c0rk3r · 23-11-2013 8:07am

Jaysus theres goes another chunk of money lost in the exchange rate

cnocbui · 23-11-2013 3:19pm

jank wrote: »

I'm waiting about the .75 mark myself.....

You might be waiting awhile.

skippy2 · 23-11-2013 5:02pm

Would feel that the AUD is only going one way. I am waiting to change Eur to AUD and will wait further. If i was coming home to Ireland I would have changed while it was up over the last few months. Once US signals end to QE and economy in AU gets worse it will only loose more of its value. I would not be waiting for .75

c0rk3r · 25-11-2013 3:41am

Leaving Australia tomorrow and was doing some banking before i head. The exchange rate with anz is currently 0.64 !! Damn near lost my monoacle with the surprise.

What do you reckon just cash out now and never look at the exchange rate again or hold until the new year? Mind you i've lost almost 1 thousand euro this week alone

the flananator · 25-11-2013 4:04am

In the same boat. Any particular reason for the sudden drop?

catbear · 25-11-2013 4:14am

c0rk3r wrote: »

Leaving Australia tomorrow and was doing some banking before i head. The exchange rate with anz is currently 0.64 !! Damn near lost my monoacle with the surprise.

What do you reckon just cash out now and never look at the exchange rate again or hold until the new year? Mind you i've lost almost 1 thousand euro this week alone

Using an online currency exchange like currencyfair is cheaper than using the mainstreet banks.

c0rk3r · 25-11-2013 4:19am

Yeah i use currencyfair, checked it out before i left the house to go to the bank (0.673). The teller was similing telling me "oh we only charge you 8 dollars to convert the lot". Don't think she was aware that she was losing me a couple of thousand euro with that horseshít rate

the flananator · 25-11-2013 4:41am

c0rk3r wrote: »

Yeah i use currencyfair, checked it out before i left the house to go to the bank (0.673). The teller was similing telling me "oh we only charge you 8 dollars to convert the lot". Don't think she was aware that she was losing me a couple of thousand euro with that horseshít rate

I'm sure she was aware. They are unscrupulous.

sin_city · 25-11-2013 6:33am

the flananator wrote: »

In the same boat. Any particular reason for the sudden drop?

The RBA "spoke" about intervening to bring the AUD down.

China announced last week that is will not be increasing it's purchase of US bonds so I guess the race to devaluation will be won by the US who are intent on destroying their currency.

The Federal Reserve also hinted at tapering but their was no actual mention of it in the minutes of their meeting.

It seems like very little is needed to move the markets these days. I expect the Aussie dollar to gradually climb again as it has done repeatedly over the past few months when something like this has happened.

It's not that Australia is so strong, its that Europe and the US are so weak. The perception that Europe and the US are improving is a bit of a joke but this is what is strengthening the value of the Euro and USD.

Lucifer-0 · 27-11-2013 12:21am

sin_city wrote: »

The RBA "spoke" about intervening to bring the AUD down.

China announced last week that is will not be increasing it's purchase of US bonds so I guess the race to devaluation will be won by the US who are intent on destroying their currency.

The Federal Reserve also hinted at tapering but their was no actual mention of it in the minutes of their meeting.

It seems like very little is needed to move the markets these days. I expect the Aussie dollar to gradually climb again as it has done repeatedly over the past few months when something like this has happened.

It's not that Australia is so strong, its that Europe and the US are so weak. The perception that Europe and the US are improving is a bit of a joke but this is what is strengthening the value of the Euro and USD.

Could the Indonesia fiasco have an impact too?

res ipsa · 27-11-2013 11:15am

Lucifer-0 wrote: »

Could the Indonesia fiasco have an impact too?

Nah just the jawboning from Glen Stevens.

jank · 28-11-2013 9:45am

Yes, at the moment .75 looks far off but remember I said thereabouts. I am also hedged elsewhere so a lower AUD has a limited impact. It will definitely reach the .70 again mid term. Euro is looking stronger as well but all it takes is some bank to get into trouble and the nerves will go there as well.

raymann · 28-11-2013 10:59am

jank wrote: »

Yes, at the moment .75 looks far off but remember I said thereabouts. I am also hedged elsewhere so a lower AUD has a limited impact. It will definitely reach the .70 again mid term. Euro is looking stronger as well but all it takes is some bank to get into trouble and the nerves will go there as well.

do people actually take posts like this seriously? it definitely will, will it? you do realise this plateau between .7 and .8 is a historic high that only lasted three years on the back of exceptional circumstances in europe and australia.

even selling now you are doing so at the top end of the curve from a historical perspective, thats the way it should be looked at. rather than hoping to second guess the next 'certainty' that its going to return to an all time high.

the only people affected are people that have saved in the last three years, and even then the loss is minimal. anyone who has been saving over 5 years has made a killing.

cnocbui · 28-11-2013 1:05pm

I think he's right.

When you talk of historical perspective and look back decades, sure the current high seems like a plateau, but I think what this fails to acknowledge is that Australia has seen a fairly rapid and substantial increase in population over that period and its economy is larger and more substantial.

A lot of the appreciation in the dollar has been on the back of mining investment and demand from China. While China's economy appears to have slowed, somewhat, there is just no way it is going to contract or stall long-term, so the demand for Australian exports is not going to wane - which would be required to justify the dollar slipping back to the sort of historical levels you refer to. The potential for growth in China is enormous and it will happen. Australia's economy is not going back, its going to be dragged along.

The AU/EU just jumped 0.57% in an hour on realisation things were not as dire for the Australian economy as the RBA seems to have been thinking:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/11/28/is-australias-economy-sinking-or-swimming/?KEYWORDS=australia

That article talks of mining companies being committed to investing A$240 Billion. For a population of 20 Million that is massive - A$12,000 a head.

Contrast that to Ireland where the Government has to extract about €32,000 from every tax payer to service the bailout.

Speaking of which, I am bemused as to why the Euro is so strong. Greece can't stay in the Eurozone, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are stuffed and when those chooks come home to roost it will be back to the fun times and It would be surprising if the € didn't take a hit.

raymann · 28-11-2013 1:32pm

cnocbui wrote: »

I think he's right.

When you talk of historical perspective and look back decades, sure the current high seems like a plateau, but I think what this fails to acknowledge is that Australia has seen a fairly rapid and substantial increase in population over that period and its economy is larger and more substantial.

A lot of the appreciation in the dollar has been on the back of mining investment and demand from China. While China's economy appears to have slowed, somewhat, there is just no way it is going to contract or stall long-term, so the demand for Australian exports is not going to wane - which would be required to justify the dollar slipping back to the sort of historical levels you refer to. The potential for growth in China is enormous and it will happen. Australia's economy is not going back, its going to be dragged along.

The AU/EU just jumped 0.57% in an hour on realisation things were not as dire for the Australian economy as the RBA seems to have been thinking:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/11/28/is-australias-economy-sinking-or-swimming/?KEYWORDS=australia

That article talks of mining companies being committed to investing A$240 Billion. For a population of 20 Million that is massive - A$12,000 a head.

Contrast that to Ireland where the Government has to extract about €32,000 from every tax payer to service the bailout.

Speaking of which, I am bemused as to why the Euro is so strong. Greece can't stay in the Eurozone, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are stuffed and when those chooks come home to roost it will be back to the fun times and It would be surprising if the € didn't take a hit.

my issue was with him stating it like it was a fact. theres so many factors influencing currency movement and most of the stiff you have mentioned would have already been priced in. amateurs trying to trade the ups and downs of forex is crazy. playing the bigger picture of all time highs is a much better way of looking at it.

catbear · 28-11-2013 2:19pm

I agree there's plenty of variables. I have pondered and posted about australias growing reliance upon exports to China and I've often wondered if that try as they might the RBA can't stop China's constant demand putting a floor on the A$.

Then again I know so little about China.

jank · 29-11-2013 12:46am

.70 is not a figure that is beyond the scope of being reached again in the near and medium term. We are talking about a 5% increase at the current multi year lows that the AUDEUR is at at the moment. The market is positive on the euro at the moment so eyes are on the USD and other mining heavy currencies. I would just advise people to have a hedge (like I mentioned some posts back regarding the AUDUSD) and not put all eggs in one basket. Tapering was meant to happen in September but the fed are still a long way away from doing this. Interest rates rise will not be good for any debt heavy countries (see Japan as an example) so the US in a bind that they cannot get out of. Historically yes the AUD is high but maybe now is the new normal. We have to factor in facts like China and Western debt, facts that were not there even 5 years ago pre GFC.

I am not telling people what to do but I am personally waiting for it to go well above .70I can wait as I am not going anywhere yet and I have plenty of hedging as well. The days of .80+ are gone unless something exceptional happens to the euro. The Euro cannot survive as it is, so expect more headlines in the coming years. Then is the time to jump IMO.

Batgurl · 29-11-2013 12:57am

I'm fully convinced the recent drop is cause all the Irish over here are sending their money home for Christmas

Come January it'll be right back up

the flananator · 29-11-2013 12:59am

The dollar has dropped another point.

catbear · 29-11-2013 5:00am

I wonder if tensions with China are diminishing A$ safe haven status.

FernandoTorres · 29-11-2013 9:28am

There's a chance the AUD will weaken due to slower growth in China, mining investment slowing etc but for the AUD to weaken vs Euro, the Euro has to stay put or strengthen itself. Absolutely nothing has changed in Europe and it's still a mess. Markets are funny and it seems they just got tired of bating Europe for a while. I'm pretty certain there's going to be a big fall in Europe/the Euro at some stage and it's not a question of if but when. The chance of that happening is a lot higher than the chance of China slowing enough for a big fall in the AUD I think.

Again as previously said, there's no point in us amateurs trying to guess the market day to day, best bet is to have hedges in place and it's pretty easy to do if you're willing to do a bit of reading.

ifeelill · 29-11-2013 9:42am

FernandoTorres wrote: »

it's pretty easy to do if you're willing to do a bit of reading.

Please enlighten us

FernandoTorres · 29-11-2013 10:18am

ifeelill wrote: »

Please enlighten us

I mean read some books to understand how the markets work and what assets you can buy. You can hedge pretty much anything, completely depends on what you're trying to achieve.

For example if you are going home for a holiday, it would be good to periodically transfer cash to Euro rather than trying to time the market and do it all in one go.

If you think things are improving in Europe and worsening in Australia then you could buy some European funds/ETFs to gain exposure rather than trying to time the FX markets.

If you're worried about petrol prices rising, buy an oil ETF, that way while you're spending more on petrol, your ETF will be gaining value.

There are countless other examples.

rightyabe · 02-12-2013 12:58pm

Going up a bit now, hopefully it gets to .7 at least:/

Aussie dollar falling

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