Housing Bubble Bursting

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Controls on our banks were missing due to Euro banking.

No, controls on our banks were missing due to a corrupt, incompetent and cronyist government in thrall to vested interests. It is not the ECB's job to regulate individual national banks; that responsibility lies with national regulators.

People sem to think we were able to control a lot of things that we had not control of.

Are you arguing that the Central Bank and financial regulator did not have power to regulate lending policies in Irish banks?

Yes, it's true that there was a worldwide bubble, however that does not absolve the Irish authorities of responsibility for their incredibly poor decision-making in 2000-2008. There are plenty of small countries like ourselves which are not suffering anywhere near as badly as a result of the crisis.

Ray Palmer wrote: »

People seem to be blaiming the property bubble for everthing in Ireland. That kind of misses what actually happened and is happening. THis is a world wide issue with banking that the property bubble in Ireland was an is a minor symptom. The world banks crashed which casued our bubble to pop. It didn't happen on its own.
Controls on our banks were missing due to Euro banking. People sem to think we were able to control a lot of things that we had not control of. The government did fail but not in the way people are saying. We were a small finh in a big bond and we pretty much rode the waves.

Generations do not learn from each other and a property bubble will happen again.

Pro cyclical budgets built around windfall returns from property transaction taxes (stamp duty).
Massive increases in current expenditure on non productive things such as welfare and health and public sector wages paid for with said windfall taxes.
Lagging capital expenditure with money spend on current expenditure instead. That's lagging not no expenditure. We did actually get infrastructure albeit lots of it was vanity projects. Loads of shiny new train sets rather than new commuter lines for example.
Current expenditure increase fed hugely into inflation which made is uncompetitive with European neighbours with whom we share a currency so we can't devalue against.

We have an 18 billion deficit each year due to piss poor decision making by a succession of FF/PD governments. Lets be very clear on that.

Banking system collapse tipped us but we'd be recovered from that now if we had our house in order with regard to a sustainable tax system and balanced expenditure.

Instead we're left with a new government who have to try to deflate their way out of a recession. We all know where that one typically ends.

Ray Palmer wrote: »

People seem to be blaiming the property bubble for everthing in Ireland. That kind of misses what actually happened and is happening. THis is a world wide issue with banking that the property bubble in Ireland was an is a minor symptom. The world banks crashed which casued our bubble to pop. It didn't happen on its own.

BS and typical ff/property speculator BS at that.
The government adopted policies that relied on a property bubble and ended up signing up to long term spending committments based on a very unsustainable busines ssector based on high availability of cheap long term credit.
We would not be half as badly off with our budget deficit if the previous governments had not engaged in upping public spending based on a property bubble.

Also the bubble did not just die due to world banks crashing and the tap being turned off on cheap credit. It just brought it to a head.
House prices had being slowing down long before banks hit the dust in mid to late 2008.
Richard Curran had his property shock tv program in spring 2007 and it was around then that things started to slow.
Supply had begun to way exceed demand and prices had reached too high a point that even with 100% plus mortgages people could just not afford property.

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Controls on our banks were missing due to Euro banking.

Again BS.
Check how well the CB have ever managed Irish banking and regulated it.
While you are at it, check what happened to the ff supporter joe moore's PMPA bank and how it's collapse meant the taxpayers had to bail out PMPA.

Check out how ken bates of Chelsea fame was able to pull a seanie fitzpatrick decades before anyone ever heard of seanie fitzpatrick.
Check out how another ffer patrick gallagher ran a dodgy bank, but never went to jail in this country unlike in the North, for ripping it's customers off.

Check out how the Irish regulatory authorities disregarded banks overcharging, running executive slush funds in tax havens in the Caribean to see how close an eye they were keeping on our banks.
The rot in Irish bank regulation did not miraculously start when we joined the Euro.

Ray Palmer wrote: »

People sem to think we were able to control a lot of things that we had not control of. The government did fail but not in the way people are saying. We were a small finh in a big bond and we pretty much rode the waves.

Could the Irish regulatory authorities have prevented banks dishing out 100% mortgages ?
Could the Irish regulatory authorities have heavily fined fingelton for the myriad of dodgy deals he had been pulling in one of the biggest dodgy institutions ?
Could the Irish regulatory authorities have investigated and sanctioned Anglo for some of it's deals ?
Oh wait they actually ignored them or worse gave them the green light. :rolleyes:

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Generations do not learn from each other and a property bubble will happen again.

Maybe, maybe not.
It would be a start if people faced up to the cute hoorism.

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Yeah you can't trot out the usual anger and people not doing what you think they should have done. The reality is the goverenemnt really only knew the method of increasing interest rate to slow lending. The relied on a banking regualtion sytem but didn't work out of ignorance more so than a contrived plan.

The first IFRSA regulator was working out of a contrived plan when he approached the internal AIB auditor Eugene McErlean and demanded that he withdraw accusations that AIB were overcharging it's customers.
AIB subsequently demoted McErlean to a menial role of assistant manager in Kells when it found out he was spilling the beans on their very dodgy behaviour.
Yeah it was all fooking ignorance. :rolleyes:
No dear boy it was all cute hoorism and a big circle jerk enjoyed by the connected few. :mad::mad:

Ray Palmer wrote: »

The manner we vote for people is the biggest problem which means the public are as much to blame. Other small countries in the Euro dealing with as much income as we were aren't doing as bad really, who? There isn't exactley a lot that match that criteria.

It is really easy to stand at the side lines an yell

Finland, Denmark appear to have not lost the run of themselves.

IMHO you are a typical Irish property related investor/speculator peddling the fooking ff line of how we are all to blame.

He's neck deep in negative equity, that's how he got on!

quarryman wrote: »

Sorry to bump this thread but I was reading some of the earlier posts and some of it jaw-dropping. Here's a typical example:


This post just about sums it up.



How dare people use "stats" to make sound decisions.

It's amazing reading back on it now. The people who saw it coming vs those in denial. I'd love to know how the above poster got on.

digitalninja wrote: »

He's neck deep in negative equity, that's how he got on!

Ahh good old conor74.
From my memory conor74 was South Kerry and disappeared out of political discussion forums along with a lot of fianna failer posters a few years ago.
Quelle surprise there.

Maybe he has totally jumped ship to the Healy Rae camp and he is one of those they think should be allowed drink drive because they are in the Kingdom. :rolleyes:

AFAIK he still posts in some forums, but has stopped debating politics and giving property investment advice.

It is gas when you research some of the posts by the likes of this poster and see how fooked up some people's thnking had become.

BTW isn't this thread still valid since we ARE STILL experiencing the housing bubble bursting, apart from some areas like of course South County Dublin where the next bubble has started accorded to some experts usually found hanging out with harris's and fanning's.

highgiant1985 wrote: »

I just noticed this ad:

a whole estate

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=707936

Bargin or bubble back with vengeance!

26 units for 1.45m not bad. 60k each not bad.

If only they would sell them individually.
NAMA are doing it all over the country, cheap for the big buyer, expensive for the little guy.

digitalninja wrote: »

He's neck deep in negative equity, that's how he got on!

And probably expecting the taxpayer to fund a write down on his negative equity mortgage, while contemplating voting FF in the next election!

gaius c wrote: »

Driving a beemer SUV and living in a shoebox duplex half an hours walk outside a small provincial city.
Living the Irish dream...:rolleyes:

Ah now, in fairness he must own 2 apartments, number 20 AND 21!

Deleted User wrote: »

The dream of "owning" a house is still strong, great if you know that you'll never need to move. If some of the dire financial stories are to be believed, it's better to have your money in property than in a bank!

Even better there has been a thread over in politics.ie where one mortgage strategic defaulter is claiming that Irish bank depositors were "bailed out" by the bank guarantee and now he wants them hit so that his and other mortgage defaulters' debts are wiped out.

I kid you not he actually said it is about time depositors took a hit for the ones in mortgage trouble.

He isn't some poor devil in trouble through no fault of his own, he chose to give up his job so that he didn't have money to repay the bank because his mortgage is now worth more than the house.

This is the madness that prevails in modern day Ireland.

Zamboni wrote: »

:eek:
Link?

Are there really people that so misguided, sick, twisted that they now just want an open transfer of funds directly from the prudent to the reckless?

http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/215601-insolvent-professional-people-should-allowed-stay-homes-accordance-their-status-66.html

Yep check out one particular poster who had some of the following musings...

The reality is that mortgagors have been sacrificed to keep depositors safe. The banks should have gone bust and all the depositors lost their money.

They were saved by the Irish taxpayer, including mortgagors. You think they would be grateful and keep their mouths shut because they didn't lose everything, but instead they are shouting the odds about paying anything.

You do realise that every man woman and child in the state has bailed you out? Apparently you put money in an Irish bank. Well guess what? You lost that bet. The bank went bust.

Everybody has bailed you out. Socialised your losses so to speak. Spreading the load.

But now you want residential mortgagors who haven't a brass farthing to pay every penny? Guess what. That money has been wiped out too just as your deposit was.

Basically this poster and a few others (who are also probably to their necks in debt) see the depositors as the fair game and want them fleeced.

They actually stated that people who deposited money in Irish banks were reckless and saving with an Irish was not being prudent.

He isn't actually that wrong.

The banks should have been let drop and anybody with over 100k in a Irish bank would have lost everything. He is ignoring the fact that deposits under 100k were already socialized before the bailout.

Yes the loan books would have been sold. At very low rates to the Euro and there would more then likely have been large spread write downs on debt due to that.

I'm not saying he was right, nor is he wrong. He just has a very selfish view on a interesting point. People with large bank deposits were also bailed out in their entirety. We could have easily ended up going down the Cyprus route.