Liverpool FC Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread 2013/14 Mod request post#5808

Agueroooo wrote: »

nah personally i cant see banks being sought to fund this. Something tells me there will be a new middle eastern investor soon.

By Zach Slaton.

After what seemed like a summer that would not end, the off-season transfer window “slammed shut” last Monday evening, and with it clubs’ hopes of making over their squads in preparation for the next four months of play.

The most drawn out transfer of the summer – Gareth Bale to Real Madrid – was finalised on the last day of the window, as was Luis Suarez’s near-term future with Liverpool. For all the difficulties of both players’ transfer sagas, it appears both Liverpool and Tottenham made modest upgrades in the meantime. For once it was Manchester United making what is widely viewed as a panic buy on the final day of the window, while Arsenal’s summer of frustration was largely turned around with their purchase of Mesut Özil, last year’s most creative player in La Liga (who would have also been the most created player in the EPL). Chelsea and Manchester City continued to spend the most on a net basis, while Cardiff City and Southampton ended up being the fourth and fifth biggest net spenders in an attempt to avoid relegation come season’s end.

Readers of The Tomkins Times know that it’s not just net spend that matters, but accumulation of players-as-assets over time that helps determine a team’s capability to compete for higher table positions. The Times is in its second year of using the mSq£R model to forecast squad valuation impacts on table position likelihoods, and a pre-season projection of the final 2013/14 table was provided in August based upon squad valuations as of August 2, 2013. The ever-excellent and meticulous Graeme Riley has catalogued all of the last minute summer transfer window dealings in his Transfer Price Index database, and the resultant Sq£ values have been integrated into the 2013/14 mSq£R model. Herewith are the impacts of the final month of transfer activity on each club’s Sq£ valuations, as well as the Sq£ projected impact on table likelihoods.

Sq£ Valuations

As of 2nd August, twelve of the seventeen non-promoted teams increased their squad valuations resulting in a median Sq£ of £77.1M for a 12.5% increase versus the median value in the second half of the 2012/13 season. Activity in the intervening month changed those numbers just a bit – thirteen teams had positive Sq£ growth from the second half of last year, but overall growth in Sq£ values was a bit more tepid than originally estimated.


The median squad value is now £73.4M, or a 7.2% increase over the second half of the 2012/13 season. The net impact on Sq£ and average mSqR values the first half of this season compared to the second half of last season is shown in the two graphs below.






Chelsea’s late spending on Willian shoved them ahead of Manchester United and Manchester City as the most expensive squad in the league. In the second tier of teams, Arsenal’s late buy of Özil means they have kept up with the growth in the league median Sq£ and closed the gap on both Liverpool and Spurs. All three teams are within £11M of squad valuation of each other with less than 6% squad cost variation separating the three clubs.

Below the first six teams things are a bit tight when it comes to squad valuations, although moves by a few clubs did reduce their likelihoods of relegation (more to come on that topic later). In the end, the flurry of activity at the end of the window didn’t change the clubs’ order of valuations much as the average change was a single position in Sq£ rankings and no team moved down or up more than two spots from their 2nd August ranking.

Impact on Table Likelihoods

There are two reasons why each club’s title, top four, and relegation likelihoods have changed since 2nd August: a change in squad valuation as well as the results of three rounds of league play that moved three matches from the fixture column into the results column. The impact of the three matches played had been incorporated into the final league simulation prior to the transfer window’s close, the results of which are found in the “Aug 2 Sq£” columns in each table below. The remainder of the season was then re-simulated using the updated post-transfer Sq£ values, the results of which are denoted by the “Post-Window Sq£” columns in each table below. The columns labelled “Change” are simply the difference between the values in each row of the two columns.



As Chelsea’s and Arsenal’s valuations changed the most since the 2nd August projection, they too have seen the biggest change in title and Top 4 likelihoods at the close of the transfer window. Chelsea’s title likelihood increased by nearly 3% due to their net gain in Sq£ value, while Arsenal’s increased by nearly 1.5% due to similar reasons. The fact that Liverpool sits atop the league through the third match day and is the only club of the second tier to have played (and won) a match against one of the Big Three means they have gained the most over the pre-season simulations. They were projected to have an 8% chance of winning the title before the season started, only a single percentage point ahead of Tottenham. They now nearly double-up Spurs’ and Arsenal’s title chances, but the Reds did lose 3% of their title likelihood given late transfer market activities. The fact that Chelsea surged ahead of Manchester City in the final month of the transfer window means the Citizens pay the second biggest penalty in title likelihoods behind Liverpool.



Meanwhile, the changes found in the race for the title are magnified when looking at the forecasts of which clubs will finish in the Top Four table positions. Liverpool’s hot start to the season means they’ve seen their Top Four likelihood increase nearly 40% since the pre-season, while Arsenal’s win against Tottenham pegged Spurs back by ten percentage points and now shows the two North London clubs neck and neck as the fifth most likely team to finish in the Top Four.



At the opposite end of the table the trend is a bit reversed. The fact that the median Sq£ valuation came down a bit from 2nd August means the extremely low mSqR values assigned to the bottom teams have gotten a bit better at the close of the transfer window. Inexpensive sides like Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion were also able to increase their Sq£ values significantly on a percentage basis given the very low Sq£ values they had as of 2nd August. This means there was substantial movement in their likelihoods of relegation, with both teams seeing a nearly double-digit reduction in their relegation likelihoods. Cardiff City’s spending was able to achieve a similar, albeit smaller, improvement in their chances of avoiding the drop. The overall impact of the spending by the teams at the bottom of the table is to create two clusters of likelihoods: Crystal Palace, West Bromwich Albion, and Hull City between 40% and 60% and Swansea City, Cardiff City, West Ham United, Norwich City, and Fulham all around 20%.

Conclusions

So if a purchase of the likes of Özil can only improve the Gunners’ title likelihood by 1.4% and their chances of finishing in the Top Four by 4.7%, what does that say about the mSq£R model and the role of squad valuations in determining table outcomes? The first thing that can be said is that the model itself reflects the random behaviour at the match level seen in other models. Simply too much at the match level is determined by random outcomes to attribute too much of a club’s table position to how much money they spend. There’s not only random behaviour going in matches, but there are also diminishing returns. Even Chelsea, whose valuations are twice as much as Arsenal and Liverpool, aren’t twice as likely to win the title or make Champions League as those two clubs. The impact of a purchase like Özil’s on Arsenal’s likelihood of table finish position also speaks to how closely matched each of the second cluster of three clubs are when it comes to Sq£ valuations. For any club to have a distinct advantage via spending they must have a significant mSQ£R value – on the order of 50% or more versus their next closest competition.

The reality is that there are still thirty-five matches to play in the 2013/14 season. There’s a good bit of football left to play, and thirty-five opportunities for random luck to creep into the results. Money explains a fair bit of the results, but it’s not deterministic of the table’s outcome. Spending money only gives a club a shot at a higher table position – it doesn’t guarantee a higher table finish.

sweetie wrote: »

all this talk of Philip Degen, he played in about 4 league games and 4 cup games, mostly as sub.

billy2012 wrote: »

I only remember Skrtel playing RB once and he had a very decent game, bombing up and down the right like a good thing I tells ya!!

daithijjj wrote: »

Do you remember when Skrtel got picked at right back ahead of Kelly?. And when Skrtel was an absolute calamity there, Mascherano filling in?, or Carra moving over for a game or two?. Kelly was around 5th choice for right back. Wisdom doesnt have those issues. We are unlikely to see Toure move to right back on Monday, or Skrtel, or Lucas in place of Wisdom.

K-9 wrote: »

Yeah, he got sent of in one game, maybe even him and Degen in the same game, we'd 2 sent of in 1 game around that time. Jaysus!

Edit: Skrtel was the Spurs game in 11/12 but we'd a calamity of a game in early 09/10 too.

daithijjj wrote: »

Do you remember when Skrtel got picked at right back ahead of Kelly?. And when Skrtel was an absolute calamity there, Mascherano filling in?, or Carra moving over for a game or two?. Kelly was around 5th choice for right back. Wisdom doesnt have those issues. We are unlikely to see Toure move to right back on Monday, or Skrtel, or Lucas in place of Wisdom.

Kess73 wrote: »

Simply says that the managers at the time did not think, rightly or wrongly, Kelly was a better option than the players used.

Skrtel and Carragher could also have been used last season to cover at right back instead of Wisdom, so could the likes of Henderson. The manager chose not to do so and used Wisdom instead.

Wisdom had just as many players potentially ahead of him, but he got in the team thanks to a manager thinking he could fill a gap. Kelly may have not had the same chances thanks to managers thinking he could not fill the gap.

Kess73 wrote: »

We did that do days ago, and I thought it was done and dusted then until I saw your posts today.


As for the ifs, buts, and maybes of when Kelly should have or could have played. That is all nothing more than speculation and is pretty worthless simply because it did not happen in the real world.


Come Monday night if one of them gets the nod to start, then I am going to be happy as my thoughts will be that we have a player good enough to do the job starting.

djPSB wrote: »

Kelly is and will be a better right back than Wisdom.

Wisdom is and will be a better centre back than Kelly.

Simples.

Sir Gallagher wrote: »

I'll never forget the time Skrtle played RB against Middlesborough, he was utter sh1te and they beat us 2-0. One of the worst performances from a Liverpool side i've ever seen and unfortunately marked the begining of the end for Rafa.