NFL Betting Thread - 2013/2014

Paully D · 11-05-2013 11:45PM #1

Early I know, but I'm going to kick this betting thread off now that bookmakers have priced up divisions, conferences, championships etc.

First off is the Super Bowl winner prices:

The full list is available here.

Next we have conference winner prices:

The full lists are available here - AFC and NFC

Division winner prices:

AFC:

NFC:

Also, Vegas (Cantor Gaming) has released the points spreads for weeks 1 through 16. It's fun to have a look through and see who you feel is being overvalued and undervalued. The full list is available here and the week 1 point spreads along with a team-by-team breakdown are below:

Week 1 spreads:

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos -7
New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 at New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears -3
Miami Dolphins -1.5 at Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 at Carolina Panthers
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions -2.5
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts -7
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams -4.5
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers -4
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins -4.5
Houston Texans -3 at San Diego Chargers

Best of luck to all and happy punting!

Pudsy33 · 11-05-2013 11:51PM

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos -7
New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 at New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears -3
Miami Dolphins -1.5 at Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 at Carolina Panthers
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions -2.5
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts -7
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams -4.5
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers -4
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins -4.5
Houston Texans -3 at San Diego Chargers

Best of luck to all and happy punting![/CENTER][/QUOTE]

The teams in bold jump out at me in week 1. Can't wait for the season. NFL is by far my most profitable sport too

Paully D · 12-05-2013 12:28AM

I think it'll be 49ers or Seahawks winning the Super Bowl this year so prices of 8/1 and 9/1 respectively appeal to me there.

Very interesting to note that the bookies can't split Baltimore, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati in the AFC North. That looks set to be hugely tight this year but I'm going to have to stick with Baltimore winning it until Dalton proves a little bit more to me. Ruling out the Steelers could come back to bite me on the arse but I have them ranked below the Ravens and Bengals this season. Can't really argue with the other AFC division prices as the Patriots, Texans and Broncos should all win their divisions although the Colts should come closest to upsetting the apple cart. In the NFC there's some value especially in the south. Saints should do much better this year but Atlanta are still a bit ahead for me and evens is an attractive price.

My ante-post picks:

San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl 8/1
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl 9/1

Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North 19/10
Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South 1/1

Glancing through those weeks 1-16 point spreads and at the minute I think the Rams and Browns are very undervalued over the course of the season and on the opposite end of the scale I think the Lions and Steelers are being overvalued over the course of the season.

If I was to pick week 1 bets now favourites I'd like are the Chiefs (-3) at Jacksonville, Tampa Bay (-1.5) at Jets and Seattle (-3.5) at Carolina. Dogs I'd like would be Browns (+1.5) vs Miami and Bengals (+3) at Bears. It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next few months!

adrian522 · 12-05-2013 01:00AM

Saints to win the nfc at 10/1 seems generous. I'll also have my annual bet on the 49ers for the superbowl, plus the over on season wins which is currently 11.5.

eagle eye · 12-05-2013 09:51PM

adrian522 wrote: »

Saints to win the nfc at 10/1 seems generous. I'll also have my annual bet on the 49ers for the superbowl, plus the over on season wins which is currently 11.5.

2/1 to win their division is awesome imo. Its the one that stood out to me and a long way ahead of the rest.

padraig_f · 17-08-2013 01:09PM

What's up guys?

Just having a look at some season win totals. I don't put big money on these (prefer week-to-week betting), but just kind of useful to see where the bookies stand in the pre-season compared to your own opinions.

Still forming my opinions on these, watching pre-season games etc., so don't have any strong leans at the moment. Bookies over-under is quoted first (bwin.com), number of games the team won last season in brackets.

Think it's still kind of useful to have the rough numbers in your head as you watch pre-season games. e.g. I think the Bengals' number (8.5) should be higher, so I'll probably watch them this weekend.

NFC East
Giants 8.5 (9)
Cowboys 8.5 (8)
Eagles 7.5 (4)
Redskins 7.5 (10)

NFC West
49ers 11.5 (11)
Seahawks 10.5 (11)
Rams 7.5 (7)
Cardinals 5.5 (5)

NFC North
Packers 10.5 (11)
Bears 8.5 (10)
Lions 7.5 (4)
Vikings 7.5 (10)

NFC South
Falcons 9.5 (13)
Saints 9.5 (7)
Panthers 7.5 (7)
Bucs 7.5 (7)

AFC East
Patriots 11.5 (12)
Dolphins 7.5 (7)
Jets 6.5 (6)
Bills 6.5 (6)

AFC West
Broncos 11.5 (13)
Chiefs 7.5 (2)
Chargers 7.5 (7)
Raiders 5.5 (4)

AFC North
Steelers 9.5 (8)
Ravens 8.5 (10)
Bengals 8.5 (10)
Browns 6.5 (5)

AFC South
Texans 10.5 (12)
Colts 8.5 (11)
Titans 6.5 (6)
Jags 5.5 (2)

SantryRed · 17-08-2013 06:42PM

Lions under 7.5 wins is like buying money to me. I just don't see how they do any better than 6-10, and even that is being generous. I think Schwartz will be sacked before the end of the season.

matthew8 · 17-08-2013 08:07PM

SantryRed wrote: »

Lions under 7.5 wins is like buying money to me. I just don't see how they do any better than 6-10, and even that is being generous. I think Schwartz will be sacked before the end of the season.

Can't write them off. If Stafford returns to 2011 form they easily beat 6-10. I think he has the class to do so. Bush might save him from throwing too much as well. They were 3-8 in 1 score games which should get better. The free money for me there is the Falcons over, but the odds are probably a bit shorter than evens. Under on the Raiders looks nice too.

padraig_f · 18-08-2013 02:37PM

Lean to over...Cardinals (5.5). Had a look at them last night, offense was looking half-decent with Carson Palmer throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, which would be a big improvement on last year.

UnitedIrishman · 18-08-2013 03:43PM

Ones I'd be looking at there would be Jets (under) - they still have Sanchez at QB, Revis is gone, Holmes still out and they're struggling all over the place.

And Bengals to go over. Ravens are rebuilding somewhat still and they picked up some good wins last year. Eifert and Bernard have looked the part in preseason and Harrison will be out to kill everything that comes near him this season!

Paully D · 18-08-2013 08:42PM

Raiders under 5.5 wins is extremely attractive IMO. Printing money.

Hulk Hands · 18-08-2013 10:54PM

Vikings +3.5 points in week one at the Lions. That line says the Lions are at least .5 points a better side, when there is no way that they are. The Vikings made the playoffs last year while the Lions struggled. Vikes also did the double over them. In early season the run is slightly more important than usual as the passing game often isn't fully in sync. Also, i'm presuming they gave 3 points to the Lions here for home advantage, when it probably isnt worth that being a not particularly loud dome which the Vikings would be quite used to from their own field, and playing at Ford field every year and even having a home game there recently. This line should be -1 or so

Hulk Hands · 18-08-2013 11:03PM

That mustve been an an error on Youwin's part give that they're back to 6/4 the pair on the NFC South market. 9/5 with Coral on the Saints is slightly tempting but there's not a whole pile of margin there. Falcons have to be favs and I wouldn't be too happy laying that 6/4 on them either.

11/4 on the Ravens to win their division looks to be underrating them also. I'd be surprised if the Bengals have enough yet to take that crown. 11/4 to probably beat the Steelers in that division, that looks way wrong. The 2/1 generally look right.

Pity you can't put on multiples. You'll see worse 1/4 shots than Denver and NE every day of the week

Edit: You can place multiples with Youwin, happy days

. Ravens, Pats, Broncos and Packers accum, pays over 15/2.

D3PO · 20-08-2013 09:31AM

some nice odds there. Think I will have a punt on the following €20 per bet

Divisional Winners

Bengals 15/8
Eagles 5/1
Bucs 5/1

Week 1 bets

Pats -7
Bucs -1.5
Chiefs -3
Seahawks -3.5

Justin10 · 24-08-2013 04:01PM

Surely Keenan Allen is fantastic value for offensive rookie of the year at 50/1
Rated by a lot of people as the best receiver in the draft.

Will start in San Diego imo beating out Eddie Royal, even if he dont, Flloyd will probably not play all the time.

Has looked good all pre season.

Off topic but who would you guys fancy for the Hesimann. Clowney at 14/1 I like but I think Miller at Ohio will have a really good year.

Paully D · 02-09-2013 01:23PM

And we're off with the week one spreads set. Odds from Paddy Power:

Ravens (+9) @ Broncos

Patriots (-10) @ Bills
Titans (+7) @ Steelers
Falcons (+3) @ Saints
Bucs (-3) @ Jets
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jags
Bengals (+3) @ Bears
Dolphins (+1) @ Browns
Seahawks (-3) @ Panthers
Vikings (+4.5) @ Lions
Raiders (+9.5) @ Colts
Cardinals (+4.5) @ Rams
Packers (+4.5) @ 49ers

Giants (+3) @ Cowboys

Eagles (+3.5) @ Redskins
Texans (-3) @ Chargers

So, who do you like this week? I'm not a huge fan of betting on the first week as it's hard to gauge things until a few weeks in, but looking at the spreads I like the Ravens, Falcons, Colts, Bengals, Bucs, Browns, Redskins and Texans.

I'll probably look into it more during the week and do the three I like most in a treble, along with a very small bet on all 8 at 170/1.

Hulk Hands · 02-09-2013 02:46PM

Vikings now +5.5 with Boyles. Completely stupid line that's basically saying that a 4-12 side from last year are 2.5-3 points better than a 10-6 side, despite the 10-6 side doing the double over them and having an excellent record against them. You could argue that the Vikings had the more productive off season also and Stafford has been horribly off form in pre-season. Hard to understand that one. I'll be all over the Vikings +5.5 and at 2/1 with Boyles, who seem to be taking a view all of their own.

Elsewhere, I think the 4/6 on the Bears to beat the Bengals at Soilder field is very fair, again with Boyles. May be a close one but very hard to see the Bears not coming out on the right side

Lionbacker · 02-09-2013 03:12PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Vikings now +5.5 with Boyles. Completely stupid line that's basically saying that a 4-12 side from last year are 2.5-3 points better than a 10-6 side, despite the 10-6 side doing the double over them and having an excellent record against them. You could argue that the Vikings had the more productive off season also and Stafford has been horribly off form in pre-season. Hard to understand that one. I'll be all over the Vikings +5.5 and at 2/1 with Boyles, who seem to be taking a view all of their own.

Maybe the bookies don't see AP repeating what he did last season & still don't trust Ponder to win the game with his arm.
Whereas the Lions had a record that everyone seems to realise wasn't representitive of the talent there & now they supposedly have decent running game with Bush, to go along with the passing attack.

Although I completely agree with you on Staffords form this preseason. He's been awful. If he continues that way against the Vikes, the Lions lose. If he does well, I think the Lions are well capable of winning.

Hulk Hands · 02-09-2013 03:17PM

I fully agree that the Lions are capable of winning, I have them as slight favs and see them as more likely to win than not at home. It's just that the Vikings shouldn't be 2/1, or given a 5.5 headstart in a match bet. When the Vikings beat the Lions last year, AP wasn't in full swing for the first game and Ponder was terrible in both. They won both due to superior defense and special teams, something which hasn't changed in the off season. Like I said, game will be very close, I just can't see why the line is saying the Lions are so much better than the Vikes

UnitedIrishman · 02-09-2013 03:24PM

If Tuel starts for the Bills, I'm all over the Pats with the handicap.

Kansas -3.5 against the Chiefs too and the Rams.

Lionbacker · 02-09-2013 03:36PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I fully agree that the Lions are capable of winning, I have them as slight favs and see them as more likely to win than not at home. It's just that the Vikings shouldn't be 2/1, or given a 5.5 headstart in a match bet. When the Vikings beat the Lions last year, AP wasn't in full swing for the first game and Ponder was terrible in both. They won both due to superior defense and special teams, something which hasn't changed in the off season. Like I said, game will be very close, I just can't see why the line is saying the Lions are so much better than the Vikes

Well the Lions do have a better defensive line this time round & the special teams seems to have improved as well, so don't expect to see 2 special teams touchdowns go your way this time round.

Still I wouldn't be touching that game with any money, cause I just don't know what to expect from that Lions offence.

Bateman · 03-09-2013 01:57PM

I definitely like the Ravens in week 1

Totals I like:

Arizona Cardinals Over 5.5 Wins
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 Wins
Cincinnati Bengals Over 8.5 Wins
San Diego Chargers Under 7.5 Wins

If I was backing 1, I think it will be the Bengals

Paully D · 03-09-2013 02:19PM

Bateman wrote: »

I definitely like the Ravens in week 1

Totals I like:

Arizona Cardinals Over 5.5 Wins
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 Wins
Cincinnati Bengals Over 8.5 Wins
San Diego Chargers Under 7.5 Wins

If I was backing 1, I think it will be the Bengals

Raiders under 5.5 wins is as close to printing money as you could find IMO.

padraig_f · 03-09-2013 02:29PM

Bateman wrote: »

Totals I like:

Arizona Cardinals Over 5.5 Wins

I like that one, liked the look of them in preseason.

You look at their offensive stats for pre-season week 3:

Carson Palmer 12/23, QB rating 82.
Rashard Mendenhall 47 yards on 8 carries.

Not eye-popping numbers, but would be a decent upgrade on last season.

padraig_f · 03-09-2013 02:52PM

Haven't done as much research as I'd like, so might be more of a spectator for week 1.

Think the Bears week 1 line is about right (-3 vs. Bengals). I did bet on them to win the NFC North (@ 4.5). Don't think there's actually much between them and the Packers, but the Packers are as low as 1.66 to win the division.

They also have a scheduling benefit over the Packers, they play them first after their bye week (so two weeks to prepare), and again in the last game of the season, when they'll have almost a full season under the new coaching staff.

In terms of evaluating the Bears, key to look out for on Sunday is the o-line. It was the big problem last year, 4 new starters this year. Two solid FAs on the left side (Bushrod, Slauson), two rookies on the right (inc. first round pick Kyle Long).

They'll get a very tough test against one of the best d-lines in the NFL, in the Bengals. If they hold their own against that, they could be a team to bet on. The bookies have them down for about 8 wins, they have elite skill-position talent on the offensive side, and also on the defensive side. So if that o-line holds up in Sunday's game, they could be an under-rated team for the first few weeks.

DDC1990 · 03-09-2013 08:39PM

I'm looking at a Tampa Bay (-3.0), NE (-9.5) and Falcons (+3.0) Treble.

As far as I can see the Falcons are a better team then the Saints, and even in the Super Dome, should be able to win narrowly.

Its Tom Brady vs Tuel. Should cover the spread i'd say.

The Tampa Bay one is tough. Tampa are crap so far this year. Freeman is terrible, we have no TE and our pass rush is still non-existent. The Jets are also a shambles. Who know's who will QB for them.
Tampa however have a great Run D to stop Ivory. Revis is fit. Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams should do damage if Freeman can get the ball anywhere near them.

I think Tampa will cover the spread.

Justin10 · 03-09-2013 11:55PM

I wouldn't touch Atlanta, the Super Dome will be rocking with the return on Sean Payton.
Think i'll keep my money at least until week 2.

Hulk Hands · 04-09-2013 01:00AM

Went to great lengths to get the Ravens +9 earlier with Skybet (10/11) which was a bit of a steal. Other bets im having a close look at are the Giants +3 (20/19) and the Redskins -3.5 (Evs). Not quite sure why the Cowboys are being rated better, and the Redskins only very slightly better than the Giants and Eagles respectively. Had to say involuntary goodbyes to a number of my accounts since last season, which will make this year more difficult in a sport where it's absolutely imperative to take the very best price at all times. Still, looking forward to it. One of the best gambling challenges around

Bateman · 04-09-2013 10:28AM

padraig_f wrote: »

They also have a scheduling benefit over the Packers, they play them first after their bye week (so two weeks to prepare), and again in the last game of the season, when they'll have almost a full season under the new coaching staff.

Think I heard this week that Cutler has an average of 3 sacks a game over the last 3 seasons so any improvement on the o-line would be welcome.

gerire · 04-09-2013 01:16PM

Tnf over 48pts will decide how I bet rest of the week

Bateman · 04-09-2013 02:58PM

I see the line is now barely a TD, which puts paid to the old adage of "back your favourites early and your dogs late"

I'd be interested to see the history of road dogs going in two points and still covering

NFL Betting Thread - 2013/2014

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