Where would we be if them bastards didnt bail the banks

Curly Judge · 06-07-2013 10:15PM

Anglo would be the first to go.
If it came at an inopportune time and PTSB and Irish Life had their money with them on the famous B & B basis they would follow suite and so would a lot of the private pensions.
AIB would be next and B of I would survive at best as a sort of useless hulk.
If the collapse spread to Europe, [there is no doubt but that it would spread to the UK] we would now hold the unenviable title of wrecker of the European experiment.
Runs on the banks were avoided and I think that no one should underestimate the level of social unrest such runs would cause.
The panic rising in the breasts of a population worried about losing everything they have worked for is better imagined than experienced.
Given the rocks we had run on to by the time of the guarantee, the government probably had no choice. Thats why I think we should focus on the mistakes made on the lead up to the crisis, rather than on the crisis itself.

lkionm · 06-07-2013 10:17PM

Curly Judge wrote: »

Anglo would be the first to go.
If it came at an inopportune time and PTSB and Irish Life had their money with them on the famous B & B basis they would follow suite and so would a lot of the private pensions.
AIB would be next and B of I would survive at best as a sort of useless hulk.
If the collapse spread to Europe, [there is no doubt but that it would spread to the UK] we would now hold the unenviable title of wrecker of the European experiment.
Runs on the banks were avoided and I think that no one should underestimate the level of social unrest such runs would cause.
The panic rising in the breasts of a population worried about losing everything they have worked for is better imagined than experienced.
Given the rocks we had run on to by the time of the guarantee, the government probably had no choice. Thats why I think we should focus on the mistakes made on the lead up to the crisis, rather than on the crisis itself.

Heh.

Lets just bring some after hours decorum in here please folks

Busted Flat. · 06-07-2013 10:20PM

yoloc wrote: »

Just as the title suggests. Where would this country be if we had of told the banks to GTF and not bailed them out. TBH im not very clued up on all this stuff that goes on concerning it but one thing i do know is that we are up **** creek.

I understand that the property market did need correcting but as a whole, would the country be a happy place to live in now or would we still be seeing mass's of people emigrating, mass job cuts etc..

Who would you think would have had the guts to do just that. Name your party that would have had the intelligence to have done that.

onemorechance · 07-07-2013 01:14AM

R P McMurphy wrote: »

The guarantee on deposits was never the problem

It was the problem. The Government could never actually come good on it's guarantee of 100k so they had to ensure that the banks did not fail, i.e. they had to give them money to cover their debts.

We could have ended up in a situation like Northern Rock had they not guaranteed the deposits and a situation like Argentina had they not paid the banks debts.

camel jockey · 07-07-2013 09:30AM

We'd still be running a massive deficit just like we are now since we would still have the same massive public sector pay bill.

There probably would have been less impetus to do something about it though, so we would probably be overspending even further.

So much for Croke Park and Haddington Road. Increments for all, I say.

mad muffin · 07-07-2013 09:52AM

One letter and six months...

Ha!

Who's laughing now? Not us :mad:

UCDVet · 07-07-2013 11:58AM

The day-to-day life of the peasants is largely unaffected by the turmoil experienced on the crown. We just like to think it is.

If we were part of the UK - what would change? Not a lot. A few laws and the tax system would be slightly different. If we were part of Canada or the US or Australia - day to day life for an average person would not be impacted in the slightest.

Bailout or no bailout the 'fake' economic steam that was driving the country was all gone. Times were going to be tough, politicians were going to keep making a fortune and we're going to see all sorts of increased tax burden.

07-07-2013 12:20PM

UCDVet wrote: »

The day-to-day life of the peasants is largely unaffected by the turmoil experienced on the crown. We just like to think it is.

If we were part of the UK - what would change? Not a lot. A few laws and the tax system would be slightly different. If we were part of Canada or the US or Australia - day to day life for an average person would not be impacted in the slightest.

Bailout or no bailout the 'fake' economic steam that was driving the country was all gone. Times were going to be tough, politicians were going to keep making a fortune and we're going to see all sorts of increased tax burden.

You're obviously not in the construction industry, the one sector that was absolutely decimated as a direct result of the down turn. Granted it grew to an abnormal size during the boom, but the collapse has been devastating to the individuals involved.

The fallout has reduced the spending power of the vast majority of the population.

Nailz · 07-07-2013 12:21PM

kneemos wrote: »

I would have been on a flight from South Korea to San Francisco...lucky.

The airline was South Korean, but was that flight not from Taiwan?

scamalert · 07-07-2013 12:40PM

As someone stated there is a section in every agreement with a bank that personal accounts are protected up to 100k,so like someone said they manipulated stats and borrowed from themselves,how is no one in prison in that matter then ? as i see if government didn't bailed them out,they would had to go into government reserve to repay the ones who were protected.
as for atm s being raided by people who were afraid that could possibly happened,until situation would stabilize.
But i think biggest problem they faced wasn't bailing this particular bank,but consequences of all irish banks failing,ripple effect,as at that time every bank was lending money 300-400k euro to people with low credit rating and earning rates.So in fact situation could been a lot worse.As eventually most banks would dried out in couple days time,no one able to lend them as no one would trust Irish banks anymore,government would been depleted of most reserves to bail out people instead,thus leaving country and all counties,councils dry all budget would have to be cut to bits,and new taxes impended to try to compensate whats little would be left.

wil · 07-07-2013 01:12PM

lkionm wrote: »

Your Anglo money isnt sitting in a filing cabinet in the safe just gathering dust. Its out partying with coke and hookers.

Fixed your bank for you;)

You forget Anglo investors weren't the average nobody in the street. They were big money investors with connections, pull and clout. That's what gave Anglo such blackmail bargaining power over CB and gov.

squod · 07-07-2013 01:34PM

wil wrote: »

You forget Anglo investors weren't the average nobody in the street. They were big money investors with connections, pull and clout. That's what gave Anglo such blackmail bargaining power over CB and gov.

Well said. Anglo stands apart in this story. It's a story in itself. We shouldn't muddle the different issues. It was perfectly plain that Anglo should never have been touched by the Gov. Maybe some token limited offer, deposit guarantee.

There were a number of issues with that night on Sept 2008.

Unilateral decision made in the dead of night without consulting Europe
The guarantee of Anglo was either done by mad men or bad men.
The other banks should have used the guarantee period to negotiate their' loses. They didn't.
Banks were then allowed to muddle their books AFTER the guarantee happened in a efort to secure their debts using us, the taxpayer as their financial backers.

eireannBEAR · 07-07-2013 01:40PM

dd972 wrote: »

I'm no economic whizz but have always suspected that the 'empty ATM' scenario was a myth and a ruse to scare people into bailing out a mess not of their own doing.

tell that to cypriots. :eek: but still i dont think bailing anglo was right.

R P McMurphy · 07-07-2013 02:26PM

onemorechance wrote: »

It was the problem. The Government could never actually come good on it's guarantee of 100k so they had to ensure that the banks did not fail, i.e. they had to give them money to cover their debts.

We could have ended up in a situation like Northern Rock had they not guaranteed the deposits and a situation like Argentina had they not paid the banks debts.

The government could have borrowed to pay out on deposits. What in effect happened was the goverment borrowed to pay out on everything to the tune of not 100, 000 per account but millions

We could have ended up with a situation like happened countless times in the states where useless banks ceased trading and deposit holders were recouped

the purple tin · 07-07-2013 02:37PM

Who knows really? A lot of theories about what would have happened are just guesswork, this is new territory for all of us.

K.Flyer · 07-07-2013 02:51PM

eireannBEAR wrote: »

tell that to cypriots. :eek: but still i dont think bailing anglo was right.

Was that not slightly different in that the cash was there but the banks would not let them have it?

Phill Ewinn · 07-07-2013 02:57PM

the purple tin wrote: »

Who knows really? A lot of theories about what would have happened are just guesswork, this is new territory for all of us.

Know for sure that if them two lads on the tape weren't saved by FF and the Greens they'd be in jail right now. We might not think this is serious. You can bet your ass the English and Spanish folk think otherwise.

As for all that money from German banks that lent to Anglo? Jail might have been the safer option for them. Where the hell did that money come from I wonder.

renegademaster · 07-07-2013 03:16PM

Jester252 wrote: »

Not to different from today.

really? when Ecuador examined it's national debt it found that a large proportion of it was illegal and wiped over half of it with a stroke of a pen

i wonder exactly how much of Irelands debts came from foreign banks through Ireland and back into foreign banks? 60% of our bailout when to Germany alone ffs!!

this sh1t still hasn't fully hit the fan yet :eek:

uck51js9zml2yt · 07-07-2013 04:13PM

well we wouldn't be singing Deutschland Deutschland ( apologies to Angela.. I don't know the modern version)

onemorechance · 07-07-2013 09:59PM

R P McMurphy wrote: »

The government could have borrowed to pay out on deposits. What in effect happened was the goverment borrowed to pay out on everything to the tune of not 100, 000 per account but millions

We could have ended up with a situation like happened countless times in the states where useless banks ceased trading and deposit holders were recouped

Retail deposits are nearly e200 billion. While it's 100k max per person, I doubt many people are keeping more than 100k in Irish banks. While those in business will need larger amounts, any private citizen should not be keeping large deposits in Irish banks; we all know that the banks and the Government will put the citizen last when things go wrong.

The central banks has less than e400 million to cover deposits, i.e. 0.2% of deposits.

The Government borrowing to pay out deposits would be far more costly than the borrowing they did to prop up the banks.

It would also be multiple times more difficult, and I would expect impossible, to borrow the money to actually cover up to 100k for each depositer.

The USA is very different economy to Ireland and Ireland could never recoup the depositers at AIB, BOI etc.

Europe could, but they already did what's best for Europe, make sure Irish banks pay their debts to the other European banks.

It was the correct thing to do, but bonds should not have been paid at 100%, and some should not have been paid at all. Ireland was too supplicant in negotiating terms. With the referendum and the fact that there was potential for the failure of Irish banks to take out big European banks, Ireland could have said we'll pay at 80% max; even to pay at 90% the 10% could have meant less austerity and not compounding the recession.

Also with the troikia when you hear the likes of Kenny so proudly stating that he negotiated that Ireland would be allowed to use 50% of the sale of state assests for job creation. I thought that this was one of the most pathetic moments in Irish political history.

Busted Flat. · 07-07-2013 10:52PM

We would be still the same, money has to be found for the pensions of the high rolling incompetent clowns who caused this mess. Lets investigate this whole matter, whatcha gona do, appoint more incompetent clowns to investigate the incompetent clowns, to report back to the high rollers in the Dail who are up to their necks with the incompetent clowns that caused the mess in the first place. You see that is what the pr1ck$ who highjacked 1916 achieved. They are the clowns that will be standing on the platform in 2016 at the GPO, when all the sheeple will be clapping their hands and cheering them on and saying "give us more punishment we are not worthy".

Where would we be if them bastards didnt bail the banks

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