Croke Park II preliminary Talks started today

Godge · 17-05-2013 12:38PM

sharper wrote: »

In other words you can't find a single piece of support for your position that tax evasion is a problem is Ireland (much less your ridiculous assertion if this evaded tax were collected there would be no need for cuts) so we're back to "common sense".

Ok, the Farm Contractors of Ireland see a problem (but sharper doesn't):

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/contractors-to-meet-revenue-in-bid-to-stamp-out-tax-evading-operators-231518.html

Revenue see a problem (but sharper doesn't)

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/revenue-looking-at-89-cases-of-serious-tax-and-customs-evasion-1.954453

The courts have had to toughen their stance because of problems:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts-toughen-their-stance-on-tax-evasion-1.1066990

As for this, enough said, let us pretend there is no problem:

http://gombeennation.blogspot.ie/2010/08/social-welfare-fraud-public-office.html

Even the accountants know about it

http://www.noonecasey.ie/taxation-posts/news_roundup/tax-evasion.html

And finally an interesting quote from this article:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/colette-browne/emphasis-on-social-welfare-fraud-ignoring-issue-of-tax-evasion-198781.html

"In Ireland, revenue lost to the shadow economy is €7.6bn — equivalent to the total amount of cutbacks and tax increases that the Government is planning to inflict on the country over the next three years. "

Maybe we don't need those public sector pay cuts after all.

sharper · 17-05-2013 12:42PM

Godge wrote: »

Sorry, let us get this clear, the government needs to reduce the budget deficit. That is the only requirement that cannot be changed.

No that is one of the requirements but not the only one.

Neither the troika nor the bond markets lend money blindly. They look at various indicators to see how that money is being spent. For example it's been noted that a low of government savings came from gutting the capital spend budget, this is known to be harmful

The government has targets which are specific to public sector pay which means cutting it is also something that cannot be changed.

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/troika-review-bailout-881167-Apr2013/

“The Troika has once again encouraged the authorities to spell out the policy intentions in the key spending areas of education, health and the welfare sector to buttress the credibility of their announced consolidation path,” the report said.

To say that public sector pay cuts will have to happen is simply an opinion, a view, a belief, a wish of yours, but it is not an inevitability.

That is not supportable point of view and runs counter to all reality and everything stated by both the troika and the government. You can believe it if you like but you're occupying your own version of reality.

Savings elsewhere will have to made in addition to public sector cuts. Those savings are not owned by the public sector.

sharper · 17-05-2013 01:25PM

Godge wrote: »

Ok, the Farm Contractors of Ireland see a problem (but sharper doesn't):

Revenue see a problem (but sharper doesn't).

Example:

-"Ireland has a murder problem".

-"Show some support for that"

-"Here are examples of convictions for murders"

You stated revenue see "a problem" which was simply revenue pursuing tax evasion, same with courts and other bodies.

You have not shown anything to support your position that Ireland has a tax evasion problem, this would be defined as Ireland having an unusual levels of tax evasion not that it has any tax evasion.

Showing that murder happens in Ireland does not show Ireland has a murder problem, showing that tax evasion happens in Ireland does not show that Ireland has a tax evasion problem. All of your examples of "good" countries also have tax evasion

From one of the articles

According to research published by the Tax Justice Network last year, tax evasion costs the global economy €3.1 trillion annually. In Ireland, revenue lost to the shadow economy is €7.6bn — equivalent to the total amount of cutbacks and tax increases that the Government is planning to inflict on the country over the next three years.

That figure is based on this report http://www.tackletaxhavens.com/Cost_of_Tax_Abuse_TJN_Research_23rd_Nov_2011.pdf

With the estimate of the shadow economy being based on an econometric model proposed in this working paper

http://elibrary.worldbank.org/docserver/download/5356.pdf?expires=1368793207&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=EC8883663D66DFD35C202F0699EDBB2C

If we take the paper as a given Ireland has a shadow economy 15.8% of GDP while Belgium (whom you've suggested we should emulate) has a shadow economy of 21.9% and Denmark (whom you've suggested we should emulate) has a shadow economy of 17.7% both higher than ours.

The implication of your arguments were that Ireland has unusually high levels of tax evasion and if we emulated countries you named where people pay their taxes then the problem would go away. In actual fact we're already doing better than those countries and the deficit is still here.

ardmacha · 17-05-2013 01:27PM

In actual fact we're already doing better than those countries and the deficit is still here.

If we had the tax structure of Denmark we would not have a deficit.

sharper · 17-05-2013 01:31PM

ardmacha wrote: »

If we had the tax structure of Denmark we would not have a deficit.

What if we also had the same level of government services?

vinylbomb · 17-05-2013 01:36PM

Godge wrote: »

OK, take Belgium who all pay their taxes.

Godge wrote: »

http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/themes/06_shadow_economy.pdf

doesn't show Ireland in a bad light (better than Belgium), however, the general point of southern (and eastern) Europe bad, northern Europe good, holds true.

Most of your arguments are like this. You just saved me the hassle of having to disprove your made up assumption in this case.

sharper · 17-05-2013 01:40PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Denmark#Welfare_state

The largest public sector (30% of the entire workforce on a full-time basis[20]) is financed by the world's highest taxes.[21] A value added tax of 25% is levied on the sale of most goods and services (including groceries). The income tax in Denmark ranges from 37.4%[21] to 63% progressively, levied on 4 out of 10 full-time employees.[22] Such high rates mean that 1,010,000 Danes before the end of 2008 (44% of all full-time employees) will be paying a marginal income tax of 63% and a combined marginal tax of 70.9% resulting in warnings from organisations such as the OECD.

As of 2011 the Irish public sector was about 19% of the total workforce. As a starting point on the Denmark model we'd have to increase public sector numbers by over 50%.

How would the deficit look then?

sharper · 17-05-2013 01:43PM

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/feb/18/britain-learn-denmark-childcare-model

He points out that, while they both have to work for financial reasons, what makes their setup viable is the affordable cost of childcare. In Denmark families pay up to 25% of the cost of day care, with those on low incomes or single parents paying between nothing and 25% of the cost, with discounts for siblings. The government makes up the difference.

sharper · 17-05-2013 01:50PM

http://international.ucl.dk/life-in-denmark/the-danish-health-care-system/

The ‘cornerstones’ of the Danish healthcare system:

-it is a public healthcare system predominantly financed through general taxes
-healthcare is organised in such a way that responsibility for services provided lies within the lowest possible administrative level, usually the county councils (subsidiarity)
-there should be universal, free and equal access for all 5.4 Million citizens
-it should promote efficiency, be of high quality, and enable free choice of provider by users

Also completely free healthcare for everyone.

creedp · 17-05-2013 04:37PM

sharper wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Denmark#Welfare_state

As of 2011 the Irish public sector was about 19% of the total workforce. As a starting point on the Denmark model we'd have to increase public sector numbers by over 50%.

How would the deficit look then?

Looking at OECD figures for 2011, income tax and SI as a % of GDP in Denmark was 25.3% while it was 10.5% in Ireland. Irish GDP in 2011 was €159bn. If we upped our income tax to Denmark level we would generate an additonal €23bn in taxation. Public Sector pay currently approx 18bn. A 50% increase would cost an extra 9bn leaving €14bn in the pot. Even if we consider GNP at €127bn in 2011 increasing income tax as a % of GNP to Danish GDP levels would generate an additional €19bn.

Basically 2 sides to the story - if we tax more and increase the PS to provide services in line with higher tax economies, this does not necessarily have to result in an increased deficit.

Fully admit these figures are back of envelope .. but simply want to point out that there are 2 not 1 side to every story and despite the impression you give you may not always have the absolute monopoly on having the correct and only view on everything.

beeno67 · 17-05-2013 04:47PM

creedp wrote: »

Looking at OECD figures for 2011, income tax and SI as a % of GDP in Denmark was 25.3% while it was 10.5% in Ireland. Irish GDP in 2011 was €159bn. If we upped our income tax to Denmark level we would generate an additonal €23bn in taxation. Public Sector pay currently approx 18bn. A 50% increase would cost an extra 9bn leaving €14bn in the pot. Even if we consider GNP at €127bn in 2011 increasing income tax as a % of GNP to Danish GDP levels would generate an additional €19bn.

Basically 2 sides to the story - if we tax more and increase the PS to provide services in line with higher tax economies, this does not necessarily have to result in an increased deficit.

Fully admit these figures are back of envelope .. but simply want to point out that there are 2 not 1 side to every story and despite the impression you give you may not always have the absolute monopoly on having the correct and only view on everything.

You are talking income tax as a percentage of GDP. You want to increase tax by about 140% (from 10.5% of GDP to 25.3% GDP) This means you are saying increase our income tax rates to about 45% and 96%.

sharper · 17-05-2013 07:23PM

creedp wrote: »

Looking at OECD figures for 2011, income tax and SI as a % of GDP in Denmark was 25.3% while it was 10.5% in Ireland. Irish GDP in 2011 was €159bn. If we upped our income tax to Denmark level we would generate an additonal €23bn in taxation. Public Sector pay currently approx 18bn. A 50% increase would cost an extra 9bn leaving €14bn in the pot. Even if we consider GNP at €127bn in 2011 increasing income tax as a % of GNP to Danish GDP levels would generate an additional €19bn.

Ok taking your numbers as given (I haven't checked):

-The deficit in 2012 was of the order of 13bn. That only leaves you with €10bn to play with after funding our current level of public service.

- Increasing the public sector count leaves only €1bn

-You still have to implement universal free healthcare, free GP visits and the child care government subsidy. That's only three examples of the extra services the Danish government provides over the Irish one.

-The Irish capital spending budget has been gutted and that can't remain.

That just gives you some idea of the scale of the problem. Implementing the largest taxes of any other country in the world closes the deficit but doesn't give you anything close to the level of service they enjoy for their money.

ardmacha · 17-05-2013 08:51PM

Increasing the public sector count leaves only €1bn

At Danish levels of tax, a large part of your 9Bn would come straight back, so say 5Bn

-You still have to implement universal free healthcare, free GP visits and the child care government subsidy. That's only three examples of the extra services the Danish government provides over the Irish one.

What is all of this extra expenditure for except this kind of thing?

sharper · 17-05-2013 09:19PM

ardmacha wrote: »

At Danish levels of tax, a large part of your 9Bn would come straight back, so say 5Bn

If you're going to permit second order effects in the analysis then you have to it consistently and consider the very likely decrease of overall GDP by a large amount as well the extra cost of banking system capitalisation when people can't meet their debt obligations due to higher taxes.

You also have to account for the loss of 13bn which is being injected into the economy via external borrowing, that's gone and will reduce GDP. Then there's the problem of higher costs of business losing export jobs and MNCs.

Suddenly the calculations become a lot more complicated.

What is all of this extra expenditure for except this kind of thing?

Taking the hospital sector as an example the expenditure already covers paying the staff and running the hospitals, just that people pay to access it privately. If that private revenue stream goes away then it has to be met from government funds.

Also it takes more than people to deliver services, people need offices and facilities to work in and they need resources to consume. You can hire 1000 extra nurses but you need to build hospitals for them to work in, buy medicines to treat people with and keep the lights on.

It's quite clear from even simple calculations the Danish model would not fix our problems. The only way it could would be if for some reason people were willing to accept the highest levels of tax in the world in return for much less in government services than the Danes enjoy.

Also note:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Denmark#Transport

Private vehicles are increasingly used as a means of transport. Because of the high registration tax (180%) and VAT (25%), and the world's highest income tax rate, new cars are very expensive. The purpose of the tax is to discourage car ownership. Whether a smaller fleet of aging cars is better than a larger fleet of modern cars is a matter for debate, however as the car fleet has increased by 45% over the last 30 years the effect of high taxation on the fleet size seems small.

http://www.trm.dk/~/media/Files/Publication/English/EUprecidency%202012/Facts%20and%20Figures-netversion.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Denmark

Due to its high level of reliability, 24-hour service and
great record of customer satisfaction, the Metro in Copenhagen was awarded “Best Metro” and “Best Driverless Metro” at the 2010 MetroRail Congress in London.

The Copenhagen metro is government run. How much will a 24 hour metro rail service which removes the need for people to own cars cost to run in Ireland?

It's pretty clear that even if you take a very optimistic view of tax revenue under the Danish model you're far far short of being able to deliver Danish level of services once you account for the deficit.

woodoo · 17-05-2013 10:12PM

sharper wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Denmark#Welfare_state

As of 2011 the Irish public sector was about 19% of the total workforce. As a starting point on the Denmark model we'd have to increase public sector numbers by over 50%.

How would the deficit look then?

But the irish public service is bloated with far too many staff???

kerryguy78 · 17-05-2013 10:23PM

Godge wrote: »

Just read today that Bose Ireland are the latest to agree a 2% payrise this year for their employees. Incidentally the same report also stated that they had given the same payrise last year.

if workers get a payrise its from an employer that is making alot of money thanks to there excellent workforce. in the public sector their employer is broke so they have to take cuts, simple as that

Godge · 17-05-2013 10:45PM

kerryguy78 wrote: »

if workers get a payrise its from an employer that is making alot of money thanks to there excellent workforce. in the public sector their employer is broke so they have to take cuts, simple as that

So benchmarking in the good times was fine and if the good times return we can just give public servants big pay rises?

beeno67 · 17-05-2013 10:57PM

Godge wrote: »

So benchmarking in the good times was fine and if the good times return we can just give public servants big pay rises?

Sure. And big pay cuts in the bad times

ardmacha · 17-05-2013 11:00PM

Sure. And big pay cuts in the bad times

Will you be giving the big pay cuts to those who got the big increases?

kerryguy78 · 17-05-2013 11:08PM

i think the cuts should be made BUT the government is still spending the money the wrong way, they haven't a clue, some of the srude buisnessmen in da private sector would run rings around them

Tea drinker · 17-05-2013 11:53PM

sharper wrote: »

-You still have to implement universal free healthcare, free GP visits and the child care government subsidy. That's only three examples of the extra services the Danish government provides over the Irish one.

-The Irish capital spending budget has been gutted and that can't remain.

Also have to run a large defence force, equipped with modern jets etc.
24,200 personell, that's almost 2.5 times the size of ours, let alone the expensive items they have procured.

Tea drinker · 17-05-2013 11:55PM

kerryguy78 wrote: »

if workers get a payrise its from an employer that is making alot of money thanks to there excellent workforce. in the public sector their employer is broke so they have to take cuts, simple as that

1% this and last year for me. Yeah I have Cisco qualifications and experience out the azz

kerryguy78 · 18-05-2013 12:01AM

I have got 2% raise this year and last year, our company is doing well through exports, a few years before this workers were layed off, xmas bonus taken from us, and some went on a 3 day week. If we had had refused all these measures would our company be there today? yes because we would get the door and they had tons of CV's on file.

creedp · 18-05-2013 12:09AM

sharper wrote: »

It's quite clear from even simple calculations the Danish model would not fix our problems. The only way it could would be if for some reason people were willing to accept the highest levels of tax in the world in return for much less in government services than the Danes enjoy.

Ah c'mon .. at least I freely admit the figures I was using were a seriously back of envelope job and I never claimed they were the solution to any problem. I was simply pointing out that your claim that increasing tax take and increasing govt funded services would not have to automatically increase a deficit.

However, I can only marvel at your powers of evaluation that you can assess all the variables involved in moving to a Danish styled system and definitely conclude it couldn't work. If only you could direct your powers towards achieving world peace.

creedp · 18-05-2013 12:20AM

kerryguy78 wrote: »

I have got 2% raise this year and last year, our company is doing well through exports, a few years before this workers were layed off, xmas bonus taken from us, and some went on a 3 day week. If we had had refused all these measures would our company be there today? yes because we would get the door and they had tons of CV's on file.

State in trouble due, construction bubble burst, banking meltdown, tax take down as tax on work reduced during the false boom time, understood my employer had to make cuts to help reduce deficit so accepted a 15% pay cut and the fact that staff number cut while work load increasing without protest. Result no one gives a sh1te, wont acknowledge any contribution given, and just demand more. Result demoralised and consequently when employer comes loooking for another 5.5% cut by agreement to appease the Troika, IBEC, political supporters, etc, etc.. tell them if they want it take it but dont expect me to support it

A quick and dirty summary

kerryguy78 · 18-05-2013 12:28AM

creedp wrote: »

State in trouble due, construction bubble burst, banking meltdown, tax take down as tax on work reduced during the false boom time, understood my employer had to make cuts to help reduce deficit so accepted a 15% pay cut and the fact that staff number cut while work load increasing without protest. Result no one gives a sh1te, wont acknowledge any contribution given, and just demand more. Result demoralised and consequently when employer comes loooking for another 5.5% cut by agreement to appease the Troika, IBEC, political supporters, etc, etc.. tell them if they want it take it but dont expect me to support it

A quick and dirty summary

Fair point its not the workers fault that the employer is broke, there is waste in the public sector and alot of waste, as i have said the government is spending the money in the wrong way. Ppl on the dole sponging when there was more jobs than could be filled should have had the dole cut so they would have got off their lazy asses and got a job, they should be cut big time now

sharper · 18-05-2013 11:34AM

creedp wrote: »

Ah c'mon .. at least I freely admit the figures I was using were a seriously back of envelope job and I never claimed they were the solution to any problem. I was simply pointing out that your claim that increasing tax take and increasing govt funded services would not have to automatically increase a deficit.

Others have stated the solution to our problems is the Danish model that's what I'm addressing.

However, I can only marvel at your powers of evaluation that you can assess all the variables involved in moving to a Danish styled system and definitely conclude it couldn't work. If only you could direct your powers towards achieving world peace.

I've quite clearly stated I'm only doing a simply comparison however even that simple comparison quickly reveals that the literally highest levels of tax in the world only solves our problems if we are prepared to go without the same level of services those countries get.

Again I have to wonder what the heck you are doing in this discussion when you so consistently and blatantly ignore people's points and attack them instead.

This is the second time you've responded with the "Well aren't you so fantastic" style response when you found yourself unable to meet the argument you were presented with. You are fooling nobody.

sharper · 18-05-2013 12:01PM

Tea_Drinker mentioned the difference in military force between Denmark and Ireland

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_European_Union

For 2010 Ireland spent €933m and Denmark spent €3.5bn.

vinylbomb · 18-05-2013 12:32PM

Godge wrote: »

So benchmarking in the good times was fine and if the good times return we can just give public servants big pay rises?

You are fundamentally mixed up.

The public sector is not a profit centre, and as a result cannot return profit created to shareholders/owners/employees.

Benchmarking is now rightly recognized as a vote-buying exercise of the government of the day, in conjunction with unions feathering their nests.

I'm all for people recieving a fair wage for their work, but the fundamentals of public sector working life (stability, flex, pension) are being touted as valueless by some PS here, which just is not acceptable in the context of this arguement.

vinylbomb · 18-05-2013 12:39PM

ardmacha wrote: »

If we had the tax structure of Denmark we would not have a deficit.

If we were as rich in easily accessible hydrocarbons as the UAE we would not have a deficit.

If we had the Swiss banking system we would not have a deficit.

If we had South East Asia's sweatshops in our pocket we would not have a deficit.

If me auntie had balls..................................

Apologies for trivialising, but the line of argument I have just displayed is similar to what I'm encountering on this thread.
State a fact-> Have it rebutted with an anecdote or an at best wildly inaccurate assumption.

Croke Park II preliminary Talks started today

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