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Minimum each way price?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Fine, everything was lost in translation I suppose
    RoverJames wrote: »
    I'll call that nonsense. It's most definitely closer to 10% than the 2% you reckoned it was, or was it 3% you were saying, 4% maybe ??
    No doubt you have proof though ;)

    You still said this. You think it's closer to 10%, so I assume around 6-10%? Yes, the bookies are making 6-10% on average on every short priced fav that runs over the course of a year. 6-10% on the hundreds of million staked on shorties yearly :rolleyes:. Not to mention the outsiders where any basic understanding of the exchanges tells us they're taking a mountain of margin. Lets all become bookies, sure how could you not strike it rich :)

    On 1/5 odds e/w, the margins would be similarly tiny. Even less so for 1/4 odds.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    nevis7 wrote: »
    over 30 years bookmaking, oncourse and the shop and phone business. about 10 individuals in the time period, some now beneath the ground, whom i could never beat. all had the same system. they had decent sized wagers, 100 e/w, on horses only, priced 7/4 to 3/1, very rarely they would stray outside. they had a traits of discipline and patience, irregular punters, some once a week, others once a fortnight or a month. on average 9 out of 10 horses placed, with up to 4 or 5 winning. impossible as a bookie to beat them.
    for differing reasons, marking my cards, they introduced pals who were profitable to my pocket etc, i would accomodate them, frequently getting rid.

    the 5/1 or over each way punters, year in year out, pay for my holidays, they never beat me.

    my experience, and we are not talking about bad each way races, which i will not play.

    one of them called me this morning, wanted 150 each way on deputy dog at 15/8. laid the wager and instantly moved it on to another bookie, i have learned from history. anyone who mocks backing each way at less than 3/1 has not got a clue. the problem is trying to get on large amounts. not easy to get on 2000 each way on a 5/2 shot.

    Nevis, as someone with 30 years experience you're probably best placed to judged this. Do you think you've made 10-15% on average off the people backing short priced favs each way over all the years?


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Fine, everything was lost in translation I suppose



    .............

    I'd say everything was misinterpreted by yourself or else you are backtracking. Isn't really much plausability for the lost in translation speel.
    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Nevis, as someone with 30 years experience you're probably best placed to judged this. Do you think you've made 10-15% on average off the people backing short priced favs each way over all the years?

    .... Nevis, if you do entertain that query you might confirm that the margin is nowhere close to 2% too, cheers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    I'm not backtracking on anything. I thought you were talking about backing shorties win only, and a 10-15% margin in that was ludicrous. So know we've established that you are talking about a 10-15% margin in backing short price favs each way. That is even more ludicrous, as while backing every shorty e/w will make it harder for the punter to profit, it is also very low margin stuff for a bookmaker. So thank you for clarifying that and making my argument even easier!

    Tell you what, go through the entire card today, i'll give you every single race.
    See can you find a race where the bookie is making an average of 13% or above margin compared with betfair from the win market and place market combined, compared with backing a short fav e/w. I'll even give you a clue, the good e/w races (7 runners, 15 runners) should be your starting point. I'd be surprised if you found even a couple from the whole days racing. And you think that they are making that kind of margin (10-15%) from every short price fav??


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    I'm not backtracking on anything. I thought you were talking about backing shorties win only, and a 10-15% margin in that was ludicrous. So know we've established that you are talking about a 10-15% margin in backing short price favs each way. That is even more ludicrous, as while backing every shorty e/w will make it harder for the punter to profit, it is also very low margin stuff for a bookmaker. So thank you for clarifying that and making my argument even easier!

    Harder for the punter to profit, that would suggest easier for the bookmaker, yet the 10-15% estimate is even more ludicrous?

    Unless you are totally bananas you should be able to spot the contradiction in that speel of yours.
    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Tell you what, go through the entire card today, i'll give you every single race.
    See can you find a race where the bookie is making an average of 13% or above margin compared with betfair from the win market and place market combined, compared with backing a short fav e/w. I'll even give you a clue, the good e/w races (7 runners, 15 runners) should be your starting point. I'd be surprised if you found even a couple from the whole days racing. And you think that they are making that kind of margin (10-15%) from every short price fav??

    A single race is meaningless.

    You do realise that backing one short priced horse per race 1000 times (ie a thousand races) is not the same as establishing the bookies margin per race?

    You go through the last 1000 shorties (one per race) as per yesterday's post and come back with the ROI, we'll see is it close to 10%, I know it will be ;)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Have you ever hard of roulette? Margins are low there yet is say its nigh on impossible to profit from roulette over a lerge sample size. Same story here, low margins but harder to profit if you were backing every shortie e/w.

    Look stop welching out of it. This is a very simple exercise that should take no time at all. You have been adamant that ROI would be 85-90% from backing shorties e/w. I've given you the opportunity to prove yourself right and me wrong. If a bookmaker makes 10-15% on average off laying a shortie e/w, then it should be very easy to find a few cases across all the races today where they are making 13%+. You're telling me I'm backtracking? If I'm wrong, use this very easy opportunity to prove me wrong


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    ...............
    Look stop welching out of it. This is a very simple exercise that should take no time at all. You have been adamant that ROI would be 85-90% from backing shorties e/w. I've given you the opportunity to prove yourself right and me wrong. If a bookmaker makes 10-15% on average off laying a shortie e/w, then it should be very easy to find a few cases across all the races today where they are making 13%+. You're telling me I'm backtracking? If I'm wrong, use this very easy opportunity to prove me wrong

    I'm welching out of feck all old boy.

    The opportunity given was to find a race where they make 13%, not the point I was making.

    The only way to establish ROI on backing shorties is to use a large sample size and the SP, not hard but a few hours required, as per yesterday you can head off and do so if you want.

    Unless you have no clue what you are on about you should appreciate your proposed "opportunity" is not at all condusive to quantifying the ROI on backing shorties e/w.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    RoverJames wrote: »
    I'm welching out of feck all old boy.

    The opportunity given was to find a race where they make 13%, not the point I was making.

    The only way to establish ROI on backing shorties is to use a large sample size and the SP, not hard but a few hours required, as per yesterday you can head off and do so if you want.

    Unless you have no clue what you are on about you should appreciate your proposed "opportunity" is not at all condusive to quantifying the ROI on backing shorties e/w.

    You said that punters make back 85-90. Where is the 10-15% of their stakes going? To the bookmakers, their profits. If a bookmaker consistently makes this, then that's their margin.

    All I can see is Welching. I'm finished with this now. You have shown you have no clue of where bookmakers make their margins on racing. I would suggest you start studying with favourite longshot bias, as the concept seems completely lost on you. Anyway, if you are willing to carry this on then pm me. I have a very useful document at home with up to date figures (yes the figures you requested!), that I will post to you if you'd like.


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    ..........
    All I can see is Welching. I'm finished with this now. ..............

    All I saw was drivel and than backtracking, 12 hours later you reckon I'm, welching as I won't jump and find a race with a 13% margin for you, whatever drivel references you have you can keep.

    I have f all interest in PMing you and I'm quite sure you won't display the document on here as no doubt it's not what I requested so you don't want to publicly lose face ;)


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    .........
    Red or black in roulette, evens your choice etc etc etc etc.
    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Have you ever hard of roulette? ............

    Mentioned yesterday old boy, lost in translation I take it ;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Get a room lads in all fairness neither of ye have offered anything of benefit to the thread since yer first post in it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭billy2012


    I find it interesting TBH!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Assume a bookie wants to make a 10% RoI on the "shorties"

    If he thinks a horse is a 6/4 shot he needs to be able to lay it at 2.25 to have an EV of 10% (2.13 for a 15% EV)

    If he thinks a horse is an evens shot he needs to be able to lay it at 1.8 to have an EV of 10% (1.70 for a 15% EV)

    If he thinks a horse is a 4/6 shot he needs to be able to lay it at 1.50 to have an EV of 10% (1.42 for a 15% EV)

    If he thinks a horse is a 1/2 shot he needs to be able to lay it at 1.35 to have an EV of 10% (1.28 for a 15% EV)

    If he thinks a horse is a 1/4 shot he needs to be able to lay it at 1.13 to have an EV of 10% (1.06 for a 15% EV)

    Lets look at longer prices:

    If he thinks a horse is a 10/1 shot he needs to be able to lay it at 9.90
    to have an EV of 10% (9.35 for a 15% EV)

    If he thinks a horse is a 20/1 shot he needs to be able to lay it at 18.90 to have an EV of 10% (17.85 for a 15% EV)

    If he thinks a horse is a 50/1 shot he needs to be able to lay it at 45.90 to have an EV of 10% (43.35 for a 15% EV)

    How many horses trading at 51 on Betfair are available at 45/1 in the ring?

    Conversely how many horses trading at 1.25 are available at "only" 1.13 in the ring?

    (I'm taking in general here, I'll bet there are isolated examples of both of the above)

    Bookmakers definitely price more margin into higher priced horses (if by "margin" we are saying expected value from the bookmakers point of view). Theoretically they should not but in practice they do

    Assuming all gamblers are rational & that bookmakers can lay in the same proportion as the horse contributes to their over round they should apply the same margin (where i define margin as EV from the bookies point of view) to short prices horses as longer priced horses, it maximises their EV.

    There's a number of reasons they don't. One of the main ones (especially applicable to betting offices) is punters aversion to betting at short prices. I'm talking your average office punter here, not your hard nosed professional. I'd also assume that prices for horses with more liquidity are assumed to be more likely to be priced correctly. The less liquid prices are more likely to be inefficiently priced hence more margin.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    I wasn't specifically talking about each way betting above btw


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    kiers47 wrote: »
    Get a room lads in all fairness neither of ye have offered anything of benefit to the thread since yer first post in it.

    Report the posts that bother you ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Report the posts that bother you ;)

    Perhaps it was a bit harsh. To be fair there is some good info in there but it is clear to me and i hope most that your opinions differ and ye wont be agreeing any time soon so why keep pushing out the same points?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭billy2012


    I backed a few shorties E.W. today, just to get a feel for it. I planned on doing just two bets, but ended up throwing a few more down. Came out on top thankfully.

    Right Touch 9/4. 1st. +135.00
    Stipulate 15/8. 2nd. -31.25
    (Had the winner aswell, I always have a look at what The Times tips, I find him excellent at times and this was his N.B.)


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I've started some analysis, I reckon it'd take a month/6 weeks of racing to gather 1000 appropriately priced horses so I've started with 16th March.

    I'll include every favourite with an SP between evens and 3/1, backing them each way and we'll see the story. I'll be logging every horse that falls into that criteria.

    I won't include odds on shots as I can't see anyone backing them each way.

    For ease of calculations I'll be using 1/4 odds for every race that an each way bet is an option (5 runners or more in the race), can't really be arsed going 1/4 the odds or 1/5 the odds as appropriate :)

    It will be in an excel file and completely transparent to ensure there's no shenanigans :)


    It won't be today or tomorrow that this'll be done though.


    UK & Ireland btw, flat and NH.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭billy2012


    I think doing it all for 1/5 odds would be a better idea.


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    billy2012 wrote: »
    I think doing it all for 1/5 odds would be a better idea.

    No doubt but then I may be viewed as favouring my own view of 10 to 15% margin :)

    When the data is there it'll be very easy to change the formula to get the ew return for 1/5 or a 1/4 once it's applied to all races :)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭billy2012


    Well keep us posted anyway, should be interesting. Will you just be adding to this thread or starting a new one?


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    billy2012 wrote: »
    Well keep us posted anyway, should be interesting. Will you just be adding to this thread or starting a new one?

    I intend to add the results to this one.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Probably should add here, you actually can't price a 10% EV into a horse who "fair" price is 1.11 or less

    The odds the bookmaker would have to lay at would imply (s)he gets a payout if the horse wins or loses

    If p is the "fair" probability of a horse winning implied by the "fair" price then the (decimal) price, X say, the bookie needs to get 10% is:

    -p*(X-1)+(1-p) = 0.1

    as the bookie loses (X-1) with probability p
    The bookie wins 1 with probability (1-p)

    So the required decimal price is 0.9/p

    This is <1 if p>0.9 i.e. the fair price is less than 1.1111111.....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭Howjoe1


    C S,

    Can you give me the ladybird (layman's) version of that?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭unitedrover


    I read an interesting system posted on some forum re each way betting. Example- 5 e/w (10 euro) is what you want to spend. Your selection is 12/1 and is 1st. You get 85 euro. With this system you guarantee the return of your stake once your horse is placed but you maximize your profits if it wins. 1/4 of 12 is 3. 3+1 is 4. Then divide 10 euro by 4 to get 2.50. Your bet should be 7.50 win and 2.50 place. Total return is 107.50. Similarly with a 16/1 horse you stake 8 win and 2 place returning 146 as opposed to 110 for a regular 5 each way bet. It can be a little troublesome having to write out bets twice but in the long term it should be worth it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Howjoe1 wrote: »
    C S,

    Can you give me the ladybird (layman's) version of that?

    Simply means that a book maker can't price a 10% margin into the price he will offer the public if he believes a horse is a 9s on shot (or shorter)

    To do so would mean he'd have to offer a price that resulted in a punter not even getting his full stake back if it won


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 46 nevis7


    you might like to know, one of my selective each way punters has been on today and punted birzali at 3/1. this is his first bet with me of 2013. naturally i have laid off elsewhere.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭Howjoe1


    nevis7 wrote: »
    you might like to know, one of my selective each way punters has been on today and punted birzali at 3/1. this is his first bet with me of 2013. naturally i have laid off elsewhere.

    C&P:

    "fangee


    Just had a quick look before I phoned in. BIRZALI absolutely leaps off the page in that race. 11/4. Refused €100 /EW. Looks like I need to find a new bookie."


    Any connection?


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